The U.S. presidential election is over. What remains is a disorienting miasma of fresh economic uncertainty.

美国总统大选已经结束。然而新的经济不确定性依然笼罩在阴霾之中，令人迷惑。

Despite reams of campaign proposals, just how President-elect Donald J. Trump’s administration will handle policy decisions that are crucial to the global economy’s path — on trade, technology, climate, industrial policy and more — is still unclear.

尽管在竞选时有大量提议，候任总统特朗普的政府将如何处理对全球经济发展道路至关重要的政策决定——涉及贸易、技术、气候、产业政策等——目前仍不明朗。

Meanwhile, pre-election sources of instability keep spinning. War rumbles on in Ukraine. Escalating conflict in the Middle East could reignite a rise in food and energy prices. China, a vital engine of global growth, is trying to resuscitate its flattened economy. Many poor and middle-income countries face an unscalable wall of debt.

与此同时，选举前的不稳定因素仍在继续。乌克兰的战争仍在进行中。中东不断升级的冲突可能再次引发食品和能源价格的上涨。作为全球经济增长的重要引擎，中国正试图重振其停滞不前的经济。许多贫穷和中等收入国家面临着不可逾越的债务高墙。

Increasing bouts of extreme weather continue to destroy crops, wreck cities and swell the flow of migrants from economically devastated regions. And advances in artificial intelligence are poised to eliminate, create and reconfigure tens of millions of jobs.

越来越多的极端天气持续摧毁农作物，破坏城市，并使来自经济受破坏地区的移民激增。人工智能的进步将淘汰、创造和重新配置数千万个工作岗位。

Then there is the hangover from the pandemic. Philip N. Jefferson, the vice chair of the Federal Reserve, has said policymakers are still trying to understand the economic aftereffects of this “once-in-a-century disturbance of worldwide consequence.”

还有大流行的后遗症。美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊表示，政策制定者仍在努力了解这场“百年一遇的全球性动荡”的经济后果。

Inflation, in particular, has become harder to predict in the pandemic’s aftermath as political and military tensions have risen, he noted.

他指出，随着政治和军事紧张局势加剧，通货膨胀在大流行之后尤其难以预测。

The one certainty about such uncertainty is that it tends to be bad for the economy. Businesses are more wary of investing, expanding and hiring. Consumers are less eager to spend their savings. Lenders may be more worried about extending credit, and as a result will increase the costs of borrowing. And such broad uncertainty almost always foreshadows a decline in output.

关于这种不确定性，可以肯定的是，它往往对经济不利。企业在投资、扩张和招聘方面更加谨慎。消费者不太愿意花掉储蓄。出借人可能对发放贷款更加担心，因此会增加借贷成本。而这种广泛的不确定性几乎总是预示着产出的下降。

周三早些时候，ABC在时代广场的演播室播放候任总统特朗普的选举之夜演讲。

Researchers have created several surrogate indicators for economic uncertainty. One of the most widely used is the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which tracks mentions in the media of the term “policy uncertainty.”

研究人员创造了一些经济不确定性的替代指标。其中最广泛使用的是经济政策不确定性指数，该指数追踪媒体对“政策不确定性”一词的提及情况。

According to this index, uncertainty has been steadily rising in the United States since the 1990s.

根据该指数，自上世纪90年代以来，美国的不确定性一直在稳步上升。

Election years traditionally see an uptick. In American presidential elections that were polarized and closely fought, uncertainty rose 28 percent on average in November compared with other election years.

选举年的不确定性通常会出现上升。在那些两极分化、势均力敌的美国总统选举中，与其他选举年相比，11月的不确定性平均上升28%。

As for this election, it hit “all the alarm bells for extremely high levels of uncertainty,” said Nicholas Bloom, one of the creators of the index and a co-author of the election study.

至于这次选举，它“敲响了极高不确定性的所有警钟”，该指数的创建者之一、选举研究报告的合著者尼古拉斯·布鲁姆说。

“Trump is a one-man uncertainty machine,” Mr. Bloom said. He noted that even in 2016, when the index was created, “all the uncertainty metrics surged after Trump’s election because he used to just kick out a lot of pretty radical policy ideas and no one was quite certain if they would happen.”

“特朗普是单枪匹马制造不确定性的机器，”布鲁姆说。他指出，甚至在2016年该指数刚刚创建时，“特朗普当选后，所有的不确定性指标都出现飙升，因为他当时总是抛出很多非常激进的政策想法，没有人能确定它们是否会发生。”

And the effect was global. Mexico, Canada, China, Taiwan and Europe all felt the impact, Mr. Bloom said, primarily because of Mr. Trump’s victory but also because of Britain’s decision several months earlier to withdraw from the European Union.

其影响是全球性的。布鲁姆说，墨西哥、加拿大、中国、台湾和欧洲都感受到了影响，这主要是因为特朗普的胜利，但也因为英国在那之前几个月决定退出欧盟。

A second Trump term promises more of the same.

特朗普的第二个任期肯定会带来更多的相同情况。

Mr. Bloom, who surveys hundreds of companies, said most were “holding their breath, and could continue to hold it through 2025 or even 2026,” delaying investment and hiring decisions depending on how quickly clear policy decisions are made.

布鲁姆对数以百计的公司进行了调查，他说，大多数公司“都屏息以待，这种情况可能会持续到2025年甚至2026年”，它们会推迟投资和招聘决定，这取决于明确的政策决定出台的速度有多快。

Mr. Trump has proposed a raft of economic policies that sharply diverge from decades of American policy and trounce the rules of international commerce, including across-the-board tariffs as high as 50 percent on all imports, with those on China reaching 200 percent. Most economists predict such a path would invite retaliation, slow growth and fuel inflation.

特朗普提出了一系列与美国几十年来的政策大相径庭的经济政策，并与国际商业规则背道而驰，包括对所有进口商品征收高达50%的全面关税，对中国的关税达到了200%。大多数经济学家预测，这样的做法将招致报复，导致经济增长放缓和通胀加剧。

周一，在墨西哥的移民。特朗普承诺要驱逐非法移民。

Plans to further cut corporate taxes could bolster growth but also drive up the deficit.

进一步削减企业税的计划可能会促进经济增长，但也会推高赤字。

He has criticized bipartisan multibillion-dollar legislation to invest in critical advanced technologies like semiconductors and electric batteries.

他批评了两党高达数十亿美元、旨在发展半导体和电动电池等关键先进技术的立法。

And his plan for mass deportations would not just extract an enormous human toll, but also severely disrupt the labor supply.

他的大规模驱逐计划不仅会造成巨大人员伤亡，还会严重扰乱劳动力供应。

Other proposals that have been floated are more extreme, like eliminating the national income tax.

还有一些提议则更为极端，比如取消国民所得税。

In reaction on Wednesday to Mr. Trump’s electoral win, the markets signaled disruption: The value of the dollar surged, flattening the currencies of Japan, Mexico and Europe, all key American trading partners.

周三，特朗普赢得大选后，市场的反应是混乱的信号：美元汇率飙升，日本、墨西哥和欧洲等美国主要贸易伙伴国的货币走平。

The latest economic outlook from the International Monetary Fund predicted slow but stable growth in the global economy of 3.2 percent. The report, which came out two weeks ago, also noted that the United States was likely to grow 2.8 percent next year, more than previously expected.

国际货币基金组织最新的经济展望预测，全球经济将缓慢但稳定地增长3.2%。这份两周前发布的报告还指出，美国明年的经济增长可能达到2.8%，高于此前的预期。

But fat red flags were attached because of the high levels of uncertainty. Sudden eruptions in financial markets could weigh down investment and growth and push new debt crises. Unexpected spikes in commodity prices and persistent geopolitical tensions could prompt inflation and financial instability. The once-inconceivable contraction of China’s real estate sector could last longer than expected and dampen global growth. New tariffs and trade restrictions could disrupt supply chains. Rising social tensions could puncture consumer and investor confidence and paralyze policymakers.

但由于高度的不确定性，还是可以看到严重的危险信号。金融市场的突然爆发可能拖累投资和增长，并引发新的债务危机。大宗商品价格的意外飙升和持续的地缘政治紧张局势可能引发通胀和金融不稳定。中国的房地产行业一度难以想象的收缩持续时间可能比预期更长，并抑制全球经济增长。新的关税和贸易限制可能会扰乱供应链。不断加剧的社会紧张局势可能会打击消费者和投资者的信心，并使政策制定者陷入瘫痪。

More recently, fights over policies in other in major economies like Germany threaten to bring down the governments.

最近，在德国等其他主要经济体，围绕政策的斗争有可能导致政府垮台。

Before the election, JPMorgan Chase had put the probability of a recession next year at 45 percent — pretty much the same odds of a coin toss.

大选前，摩根大通认为明年经济衰退的概率为45%——几乎和抛硬币的概率是一样的。

Mr. Bloom has what he calls an “Anna Karenina” view of the economy based on the novel’s opening line about happy and unhappy families.

布鲁姆模仿小说《安娜·卡列尼娜》开头关于幸福家庭和不幸家庭的那句话，提出了他的“安娜·卡列尼娜”经济观。

洛杉矶小东京社区的建筑工地。

“Expansions are all alike,” Mr. Bloom said, “but recessions are all totally different.”

“经济扩张都是千篇一律的，”布鲁姆说，“但衰退却各自不同。”

“If you look back at recent recessions, they’re always completely unexpected events that no one saw coming,” he added, and they arrive at random intervals.

“回顾一下最近的经济衰退，会发现它们总是完全出乎意料，没有人能够预料，”他还说。而且，它们出现的时间间隔是随机的。

Such uncertainty can increase risky behavior.

这样的不确定性会增加冒险行为。

In China, investors who are flooding into the casino-like stock market said doing something — anything — at least gave them some sense of control at a time when the economic future looks grim.

在中国，投资者涌入赌场般的股市，他们表示，在经济前景黯淡之际，做点什么——任何事都行——至少让他们有了一些控制感。

Economists are at pains to differentiate between risk and uncertainty.

经济学家努力区分风险和不确定性。

Think of the coin toss risk of a recession next year. Even if you do not know which side will come up, you at least know the range of possibilities: heads or tails. You know the chance of winning or losing is one out of two, even if you do not know how the coin will fall.

想想明年像抛硬币一样的经济衰退风险。即使你不知道哪一面会出现，你至少知道可能性的范围：正面或反面。即使你不知道硬币会怎么掉下来，你也知道，赢或输的机会都是二分之一。

But now imagine that a winner or an outcome is determined by the flips of several coins — except you do not know how many coins or how many times each one will be flipped. That’s uncertainty.

但现在想象一下，胜负或结果是由投掷几个硬币决定的——但你不知道有多少硬币，也不知道每个硬币将被投多少次。这就是不确定性。

“I don’t think people understand how damaging uncertainty is,” said Dan Ariely, a behavioral economist at Duke University and the author of “Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things.”

“我认为人们不明白不确定性有多大的破坏性，”杜克大学的行为经济学家、《错误信念——是什么让理性的人相信非理性的事情》(Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things)一书的作者丹·阿里利说。

Uncertainty ends up breeding more uncertainty as people search for answers and explanations. “You want an organizing principle, you want to understand what is happening, you want to feel in control,” he said.

随着人们寻找答案和解释，不确定性最终会滋生更多的不确定性。“你需要一个组织原则，你想了解正在发生的事情，你希望能有掌控一切的感觉，”他说。

国际货币基金组织预计全球经济增长率为3.2%，美国明年的经济增长率预计将达到2.8%。

Norman Mailer’s 1995 book “Oswald’s Tale,” about Lee Harvey Oswald, makes a similar point that any explanation is better than no explanation when it comes to traumatic events like President John F. Kennedy’s assassination — or, to update, a pandemic that leaves economic scars and a profound anxiety about future prospects.

诺曼·梅勒1995年出版的关于李·哈维·奥斯瓦尔德的书《奥斯瓦尔德的故事》(Oswald’s Tale)也提出了类似的观点——当涉及像约翰·肯尼迪总统遇刺这样的创伤性事件时，任何解释都比没有解释好，或者，更确切地说，涉及一场留下经济伤疤，令人对未来前景深感焦虑的流行病时，任何解释都比没有解释好。

To concede that such events are blindingly random, Mailer writes, is to concede that “we live in a universe that is absurd.”

梅勒写道，如果承认这些事件是盲目随机的，就等于承认“我们生活在一个荒谬的宇宙中”。

And what could be more terrifying than that?

还有什么比这更可怕呢？