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特朗普向习近平作出重大让步:暂停扩大出口管制

ANA SWANSON

2025年10月31日

特朗普政府同意暂停一项新规,该规定原本将限制与被视为国家安全威胁的外国公司进行贸易。 Gilles Sabrie for The New York Times

Rather than advancing the U.S.-China relationship, the concessions that President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China agreed to in their meeting in South Korea on Wednesday appear to have largely rolled back the clock, returning to the terms of an earlier truce.

特朗普总统与中国领导人在周三韩国会晤中达成的让步并没有推动美中关系向前发展,而是在很大程度上让局势退回到此前的贸易休战状态。

Mr. Trump agreed to reverse some of his tariffs and paused new fees on Chinese ships. China said it would suspend the rollout of rare earths restrictions introduced in October, and return to buying U.S. soybeans, in addition to a newer promise to crack down on shipments of chemicals used to make fentanyl.

特朗普同意撤销部分加征的关税,并暂缓对中国船舶征收的新费用。中国则承诺暂缓实施10月颁布的稀土管制措施,恢复采购美国大豆,并新增了严管芬太尼前体化学品出口的承诺。

But one of the reversals from the United States was more notable in the precedent it set. The Trump administration agreed to pause for one year a rule that expanded the number of Chinese companies restricted from access to advanced technology. The rule, issued just four weeks ago, extended the reach of the “entity list,” a kind of trade blacklist for foreign companies that pose a national security threat.

但美方的一项政策逆转因开创先例尤为引人注目。特朗普政府已同意暂停实施一项扩大对华技术限制的规定,为期一年。这项仅出台四周的规定原本旨在扩大“实体清单”(针对威胁国家安全的外国企业的贸易黑名单)的覆盖范围。

Former officials and analysts said Thursday that the move appeared to be one of the first concessions the United States had made on national security-related technology controls as part of a trade negotiation. They called it a potential breakthrough for the Chinese side, which has long pushed to negotiate with the United States over these types of measures, known as export controls.

前政府官员与分析人士在周四指出,此举似乎是美国首次在贸易谈判中对国家安全相关技术的管控作出让步。他们称,这对中方而言可能是一次重大突破,因为中国长期以来一直希望就这类被称为“出口管制”的措施与美国展开谈判。

Christopher Padilla, who served as an export control official in the George W. Bush administration, said it was a significant shift for U.S. policy. Chinese officials have consistently asked in talks with many presidential administrations for export control measures to be rolled back, he said.

曾在乔治·W·布什政府担任出口管制官员的克里斯托弗·帕迪利亚表示,这是美国政策的重大转变。他透露历届美国政府与中方谈判时,中国官员都不断要求放宽出口管制措施。

“We all had the talking points,” Mr. Padilla said. “The first one is: ‘That’s a national security issue, and we’re not going to discuss it in a trade negotiation.’”

“我们当时都有标准回应口径,第一条就是:‘这是国家安全问题,不会在贸易谈判中讨论’,”帕迪利亚补充道。

“Export controls have now become a tradable item in the relationship,” Mr. Padilla added. “You’ve discarded decades of precedent.”

他还说:“出口管制如今成了可被拿来交易的筹码。这是在抛弃几十年来的惯例。”

Brett Fetterly, a principal at the Asia Group consultancy and the former national security adviser to Ben Sasse, the Republican former senator, agreed that Beijing had succeeded in this summit in its long-term goal of tying national security-focused export controls to broader trade negotiations.

咨询公司亚洲集团负责人、前共和党参议员本·萨斯的国家安全顾问布雷特·费特利赞同此观点,认为北京在此次峰会中成功实现了其长期目标——将以国家安全为重点的出口管制与更广泛的贸易谈判做捆绑。

“Technology competition now defines the U.S.-China relationship, and on this point President Xi secured key U.S. concessions,” Mr. Fetterly said.

费特利说:“科技竞争如今已成为定义美中关系的核心,而在这一点上,习近平主席赢得了美国方面的重大让步。”

The administration appeared not to have made larger concessions on U.S. export controls that some critics had feared. As he flew to South Korea on Wednesday, Mr. Trump suggested that he would discuss the sale of Nvidia’s cutting-edge Blackwell with Mr. Xi, a proposal that drew swift rebukes from Republican and Democratic lawmakers.

不过特朗普政府似乎并未在出口管制问题上作出某些批评人士担忧的更大让步。周三前往韩国途中,特朗普曾暗示将与中国领导人讨论英伟达Blackwell尖端芯片的销售事宜,这一提议随即遭到两党议员的强烈反对。

Many business groups praised a return to greater stability in the U.S.-China relationship, which would help encourage trade and growth. But some analysts said the Trump administration may have had little choice but to roll back U.S. technology controls given China’s chokehold on critical minerals. Last December, Beijing introduced its first curbs on rare earth mineral exports, which it expanded in April and again in October in response to Mr. Trump’s trade war.

许多商业团体对美中关系恢复稳定表示欢迎,认为这将促进贸易和经济的增长。但一些分析人士指出,鉴于中国掌握着关键矿产的命脉,特朗普政府除了放宽技术管制外几无选择。去年12月,北京首次对稀土矿物出口实施限制;之后在今年4月和10月又进一步升级管控措施,以回应特朗普的贸易战。

China dominates the mining and processing of rare earth minerals, and the magnets made from them that are common in batteries and motors. The Chinese curbs threatened the supply chains of global makers of cars, planes, munitions and semiconductors, and some companies were forced to halt production lines. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, had called the restrictions “a bazooka at the supply chains and the industrial base of the entire free world.”

中国在稀土矿产的开采加工及磁体制造领域占据主导地位,这些材料广泛应用于电池与电机之中。中国的管制措施严重冲击全球汽车、航空、军工及半导体产业的供应链,一些企业被迫暂停生产。财政部长斯科特·贝森特曾称这些限制措施是“对准整个自由世界供应链与产业基础的火箭筒”。

With the renewed tensions with China this fall, industry executives say supplies of minerals and magnets have once again been running short.

随着今秋美中关系再度紧张,业内高管表示,矿物和磁体的供应已再度出现短缺。

Some analysts say that China’s decision to limit exports of rare earths was a natural consequence of Washington’s technology controls, which used a similar global licensing system to limit China’s access to advanced chips. After so many years of being the target of restrictions, China sought to develop powerful controls of its own, they say.

有分析认为,中国限制稀土出口的决定,实属对美国技术管制的自然反应——美国使用类似的全球许可制度来限制中国获取先进芯片。这些分析人士指出,在作为被限制的对象多年之后,中国必然寻求建立自己的强力管控系统。

Emily Benson, the head of strategy at Minerva Technology Futures, a consultancy, said it was “sort of surprising” that the United States didn’t seem to anticipate that other countries would develop similar systems. She added, “It was just a matter of time.”

咨询公司Minerva Technology Futures战略主管艾米丽·本森表示,美国似乎没有料到其他国家会效仿其建立类似管制体系,这“着实令人诧异”。但“这不过是时间问题”,她说。

Other have pointed fingers at the Trump administration’s behavior toward China. They say it was Mr. Trump’s aggressive threats of tariffs this spring that gave the Chinese the opportunity to try out their new approach, and the administration’s lack of a coherent strategy that gave the Chinese an opening to press for long-desired changes.

也有人指责特朗普政府的对华行为失当。他们认为,正是今春特朗普激进的关税威胁为中国提供了试验新手段的契机,而美国政府缺乏连贯战略,更是让中国有机可乘,得以推进其长期谋求的改变。

After Mr. Trump introduced high tariffs in April and China put in place its rare earth curbs, the two countries reached a tentative truce in Geneva in May. But the day after that meeting, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued new guidance saying that the use of A.I. chips made by Chinese tech firm Huawei anywhere in the world was an export control violation. The announcement rankled China and led it to clamp down on rare earth exports again.

今年4月,特朗普推出高额关税后,中国实施了稀土出口限制;随后两国在5月于日内瓦达成一项贸易战临时停战协议。但就在会谈次日,美国商务部发布了新规,宣布在全球任何地方使用中国科技企业华为制造的人工智能芯片都将被视为违反出口管制规定。此举激怒了中国,促使其再次收紧稀土出口。

The countries held a series of meetings in other European capitals this summer to try to stabilize the relationship. But shortly after a phone call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi in September, the United States released its rule extending the impact of the entity list to majority-owned subsidiaries, and the Chinese once again responded angrily. In October, Beijing imposed expansive global controls on the trade in minerals and products made with them.

今夏,两国在欧洲的几个首都举行了一系列会谈,试图稳定关系。但9月特朗普与习近平通话后不久,美国出台新规,将“实体清单”的限制范围扩大至控股子公司,再次引发中方强烈反弹。10月,北京宣布对稀土矿产及其制成品实施广泛的全球贸易管制

Chinese officials claimed that U.S. measures like the 50 percent entity list rule had violated a consensus struck in their bilateral meetings. Some U.S. officials privately grumbled about the Commerce Department’s timing and lack of coordination. But publicly, the United States insisted it had not made promises to withhold the imposition of export controls.

中国官员称,美国的措施(例如50%实体清单规则)违反了此前双边会谈达成的共识。一些美国官员对商务部在时机选择与统筹协调方面的失误表示不满。但在公开场合,美国仍坚持表示,从未承诺暂停实施出口管制措施。

In an interview on CNBC last week, Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, said that the Chinese were “trying out a lot of different narratives when the reality is, they just want to exert economic control on the world.”

在上周接受CNBC采访时,美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔表示,中方“不断提出各种说法,其真正意图是对世界经济实施控制”。

“They’re using anything else that has happened as a pretext,” he said. He added that the United States had promised to reduce its tariffs in return for China allowing the free flow of rare earths. “We kept that promise, and they have not kept theirs.”

他说:“他们在利用其它的一切作为借口。”美国曾承诺通过降低关税换取中国保证稀土自由流通,他补充道,“我们履行了承诺,而中方却未信守诺言。”

With the president’s meeting with Mr. Xi, the U.S. side appears to have made more explicit concessions. A White House spokesman confirmed Thursday that the United States had agreed to pause the expansion of the entity list to cover majority-owned subsidiaries for one year.

在总统与习近平会晤之后,美国一方似乎作出了更为明确的让步。白宫发言人周四证实,美国已同意暂缓将实体清单适用范围扩大至控股子公司,有效期一年。

For some, the move is welcome. Some tech executives and lobbyists had criticized the 50 percent rule, saying the due diligence it requires is onerous or impossible.

此举受到部分人士欢迎。此前科技企业高管及游说团体曾批评“50%规则”,称其要求的尽职调查标准过于严苛甚至无法实现。

The 50 percent rule greatly expanded the reach of the entity list, freezing trade for some companies. According to Wirescreen, a data platform focused on China, the rule means that the entity list has grown from roughly 1,300 China-related parties to more than 20,000.

该规则极大拓展了实体清单的管辖范围,导致部分企业的贸易陷入停滞。根据专门分析中国数据的Wirescreen平台统计,此规则使实体清单涉及的中国相关实体从约1300家激增至逾2万家。

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