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特朗普宣布征收对等关税,或打破全球贸易规则

ANA SWANSON

2025年2月14日

特朗普总统决定对来自全球各地的商品征收关税,这可能会进一步扰乱与外国政府的关系。 Adam Kuehl for The New York Times

President Trump on Thursday set in motion a plan for new tariffs on other countries globally, an ambitious move that could shatter the rules of global trading and is likely to set off furious negotiations.

特朗普总统周四启动了一项对全球其他国家征收新关税的计划,这一雄心勃勃的举动可能打破全球贸易规则,并引发激烈谈判。

The president directed his advisers to come up with new tariff levels that take into account a range of trade barriers and other economic approaches adopted by America’s trading partners. That includes not only the tariffs that other countries charge the United States, but also the taxes they charge on foreign products, the subsidies they give their industries, their exchange rates, and other behaviors the president deems unfair.

总统指示顾问们,在考虑美国贸易伙伴采取的一系列贸易壁垒和其他经济措施的基础上提出新的关税水平。这不仅包括其他国家对美国征收的关税,还包括他们对外国产品的征税、对本国产业的补贴、汇率,以及总统认为不公平的其他行为。

The president has said the step was necessary to even out America’s “unfair” relationships and stop other countries from taking advantage of the United States on trade. But he made clear that his ultimate goal was to force companies to bring their manufacturing back to the United States.

特朗普表示,有必要采取这一措施来平衡美国与其他国家的“不公平”关系,并阻止其他国家在贸易上利用美国。但他明确表示,他的最终目标是迫使企业将制造业迁回美国。

“If you build your product in the United States, there are no tariffs,” he said during remarks in the Oval Office.

“如果你在美国生产产品,就没有关税,”他在椭圆形办公室发表讲话时说。

Howard Lutnick, the president’s nominee for commerce secretary, said the measures could be ready as soon as April 2. He will oversee the plan along with Jamieson Greer, Mr. Trump’s pick for trade representative, and other advisers.

总统提名的商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克表示,这些措施最早可于4月2日就绪。他将与特朗普提名的贸易代表贾米森·格里尔和其他顾问一起负责该计划。

The decision to rework the tariffs that America charges on imported goods would represent a dramatic overhaul of the global trading system. For decades, the United States has set its tariff levels through negotiations at international trade bodies like the World Trade Organization.

重新制定美国进口商品关税的决定将代表着对全球贸易体系的一次重大改革。几十年来,美国一直通过世界贸易组织等国际贸易机构的谈判来设定关税水平。

Setting new levies — likely to be higher than what the United States charges today — would effectively scrap that system in favor of one determined solely by U.S. officials and based on their own criteria.

设定新的关税标准——很可能比美国目前征收的关税更高——将从实际上废除这一体系,变为完全由美国官员根据自己的标准决定新关税。

Timothy Brightbill, a lawyer at Wiley Rein, said a move toward a reciprocity-based tariff system would be “a fundamental change to U.S. trade policy, and among the biggest in more than 75 years — since the creation of the current multilateral trading system,” in 1947.

威利律师事务所的律师蒂莫西·布莱特比尔表示,转向对等为基础的关税体系将是“美国贸易政策的根本改变,也是自1947年、当前多边贸易体系建立以来75年来最大的改变之一”。

Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said Mr. Trump’s tariffs would violate W.T.O. rules in two ways. Applying different tariff rates to different countries would violate a commitment by W.T.O. members not to discriminate against one another. And if the United States raises its tariff rates beyond the maximum rate it has negotiated with other members, that would break trading rules, too.

彼得森国际经济研究所的高级研究员查德·鲍恩表示,特朗普的关税将在两个方面违反世贸组织的规则。对不同的国家征收不同的关税将违反世贸组织成员之间不相互歧视的承诺。如果美国提高关税税率,超过与其他成员国谈判达成的最高水平,那也会违反贸易规则。

“A decision to unilaterally increase U.S. import tariffs, product by product, country by country, would be President Trump’s biggest blow yet to the rules-based trading system,” Mr. Bown said.

鲍恩说,“单方面决定逐个产品、逐个国家提高美国进口关税,这个决定将是特朗普总统迄今对基于规则的贸易体系的最大打击。”

The action seems likely to kick off intense negotiations with governments whose economies depend on exports to the United States. It could also elicit trade wars on multiple fronts if other countries choose to increase their own tariffs in retaliation.

这一行动似乎可能引发那些经济依赖对美出口的国家与美国展开激烈谈判。如果其他国家选择提高自己的关税作为报复,也可能引发多方面的贸易战。

A White House official, who did not have permission to speak for attribution, said in a call with reporters on Thursday that other countries would be given the opportunity to negotiate on the levies they will face.

一名未获得发言授权的白宫官员周四在接受记者电话采访时表示,其他国家将有机会就它们面临的关税进行谈判。

Nearly every country would be affected, but the move could have particularly significant consequences for India, Japan and the European Union. Mr. Trump and his staff members have repeatedly pointed to Europe’s value-added tax as an additional injustice on top of tariffs.

几乎每个国家都会受到影响,但此举对印度、日本和欧盟的影响可能尤为重大。特朗普及其工作人员一再指出,欧洲的增值税是关税之外的又一个不公正之处。

The European Union requires a standard value-added tax rate on most goods and services, and while the rates vary by country, they average about 22 percent across European nations. The tax is applied at each stage in a supply chain, and the cost is usually borne by the end consumer.

欧盟要求对大多数商品和服务征收标准增值税,虽然各国税率不同,但欧洲各国的平均税率约为22%。该税收适用于供应链的每个阶段,成本通常由最终消费者承担。

The United States is an outlier among advanced economies in not levying a value-added tax on products like cars.

在发达经济体当中,美国是不向汽车等产品征收增值税的异类

Mr. Trump’s proposal represents a significant reversal in a decades-long push in trade policy toward lowering international barriers. While past presidents have often negotiated with foreign countries over tariffs, those agreements have typically led to lower levies, not higher ones. No president has taken Mr. Trump’s approach of raising U.S. tariffs to match other countries’ rates.

特朗普的提议代表了几十年来推动降低国际壁垒这一贸易政策的重大逆转。虽然过去的总统经常与外国就关税问题进行谈判,但这些协议通常会降低关税,而不是提高关税。没有哪位总统采取特朗普提高美国关税以赶上其他国家税率的做法。

The reciprocal tariff plan is the latest move by Mr. Trump to punish allies and adversaries alike with an extraordinary array of trade actions. On Monday, the president signed a proclamation imposing 25 percent tariffs on all foreign steel and aluminum. Mr. Trump said his advisers would also meet over the next four weeks to discuss measures on cars, pharmaceuticals, chips and other goods.

对等关税计划是特朗普以一系列非同寻常的贸易行动惩罚盟友和对手的最新举措。周一,他签署了一项公告,对所有外国钢铝加征25%的关税。特朗普表示,他的顾问们还将在未来四周举行会议,讨论对汽车、药品、芯片和其他商品采取的措施。

Mr. Trump did acknowledge that his reciprocal tariff plan could result in prices going up. That’s because consumers tend to pay higher prices when goods are taxed at a higher rate. But the president said that any increase would be short-lived and that his plan would result in more jobs. “Prices could go up somewhat short term, but prices will also go down.”

特朗普承认,他的对等关税计划可能会导致价格上涨。这是因为当商品被征收的税率较高时,消费者往往要支付更高的价格。但总统表示,这种情况将是短暂的,他的计划将带来更多的就业机会。“短期内物价可能会上涨,但今后物价也会下跌。”

In the long term, he said, it’s going to “make our country a fortune.”

他说,从长远来看,这将“为我们的国家带来巨大财富”。

In the past weeks, Mr. Trump’s almost-daily tariff threats have rocked diplomatic and economic relationships. The United States imposed an additional 10 percent tariff on all products from China last week, and came within hours of putting sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico that would have brought U.S. tariff rates to a level not seen since the 1940s.

过去几周,特朗普几乎每天都发出关税威胁,动摇了外交和经济关系。上周,美国对来自中国的所有产品加征10%的关税,差一点就对加拿大和墨西哥征收全面关税,这将使美国的关税税率达到自上世纪40年代以来的最高水平

The president had criticized Canada and Mexico over drug and migrant crossings into the United States, but agreed to put off the tariffs for 30 days after the countries offered him some concessions.

总统曾就毒品和移民越境进入美国的问题批评加拿大和墨西哥,但在这两个国家向他做出一些让步后,他同意将关税推迟30天。

Reciprocal tariffs will likely broaden Mr. Trump’s trade fight to even more countries. It remains to be seen whether the president uses the strategy to drastically raise U.S. barriers to imports, or as a lever to extract concessions from countries that end up opening foreign markets.

对等关税可能会将特朗普的贸易战扩大到更多的国家。总统是利用这一战略大幅提高美国的进口壁垒,还是将其作为一种杠杆,迫使其他国家最终开放市场、做出让步,这还有待观察。

When asked which legal authority would be used to impose tariffs, the White House official said the president could draw on several, depending on the action and country, including Section 232, which relates to national security; Section 301, which relates to unfair trading; and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

当被问及将使用哪些法律权力来征收关税时,这位白宫官员表示,总统可以根据行动和国家情况,使用几种法律权力,包括涉及国家安全的232条款,涉及不公平贸易的301条款,以及《国际紧急经济权力法》。

The official said that Mr. Trump was not ruling out a further “universal” tariff later to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, but that for now the president had chosen to pursue reciprocal treatment. The United States has set its tariff rates for imports lower than that of some trading partners, because for decades U.S. officials were convinced of the benefits of freer trade. They believed lower tariffs would allow the United States to import cheap products for U.S. consumers and raw materials for its factories, fueling the American economy.

该官员表示,特朗普不排除以后进一步征收“普遍”关税,以减少美国的贸易逆差,但目前总统选择了寻求对等待遇。美国设定的进口关税税率低于一些贸易伙伴,因为几十年来,美国官员一直相信自由贸易的好处。他们认为,降低关税将使美国能够为消费者进口廉价产品,为工厂进口原材料,从而推动美国经济。

Mr. Trump’s views differ. He argues that equaling out American tariff rates is essential to restoring U.S. manufacturing, and that higher tariffs will reduce the trade deficit. Some economists disagree, arguing that movements in currency could offset any effects on the trade deficit.

特朗普的观点则不同。他认为,美国对外国征收同等的关税对恢复美国制造业至关重要,而且提高关税将减少贸易逆差。一些经济学家不同意这种说法,他们认为汇率变动可以抵消对贸易逆差的任何影响。

Economists and historians also say that the varying tariffs that countries put on one another’s products are not evidence of discrimination. Rather, they reflect the priorities that each government had when it agreed to maximum tariff rates in negotiations with other members of the World Trade Organization.

经济学家和历史学家还表示,各国对彼此产品征收不同的关税并不是歧视的证据。实际上,它们反映了各国政府在与世界贸易组织其他成员国谈判并同意最高关税税率时的优先事项。

Raising tariffs above the rate the United States has agreed to at the W.T.O. would violate the trade group’s commitments, and other members of the W.T.O. could challenge that action. But the panel at the W.T.O. in charge of resolving such disputes was effectively neutered in the first Trump administration when the United States refused to appoint any more members to it. The Biden administration continued that policy.

将关税提高到美国在世贸组织同意的水平之上将违反该组织的承诺,世贸组织的其他成员国可能会对这一行动提出挑战。但在特朗普第一届政府期间,世贸组织负责解决此类争端的小组实际上相当于被阉割了,因为美国拒绝任命更多成员加入该小组。拜登政府延续了这一政策。

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