Every few years I am reminded of one of my cardinal rules of journalism: Whenever you see elephants flying, don’t laugh, take notes. Because if you see elephants flying, something very different is going on that you don’t understand but you and your readers need to.

每隔几年，我就会想起自己新闻业的核心准则之一：每当看到大象在天上飞，别急着发笑，先记录下来。因为如果大象真能飞上天，必然有某种你尚未理解、但你与读者都亟需弄清的反常之事正在发生。

I bring that up today in response to the Trump administration’s 33-page National Security Strategy, released last week. It has been widely noted that at a time when our geopolitical rivalry with Russia and China is more heated than at any other time since the Cold War — and Moscow and Beijing are more and more closely aligned against America — the Trump 2025 national security doctrine barely mentions these two geopolitical challengers.

今天提起这个准则，是针对特朗普政府上周发布的33页《国家安全战略》报告。各界普遍注意到：当前美俄、中美地缘政治竞争达到冷战以来最激烈水平，莫斯科与北京正日益紧密地联合对抗美国，但这份“特朗普2025”国家安全纲领却几乎未提及这两大地缘政治挑战者。

While the report surveys U.S. interests across the globe, what intrigues me most about it is how it talks about our European allies and the European Union. It cites activities by our sister European democracies that “undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence.”

报告概述了美国在全球的利益布局，但最让我关注的是它对欧洲盟友及欧盟的描述。报告称，欧洲民主盟友的部分行为“损害了政治自由与主权，其移民政策正在改变欧洲大陆并引发冲突，存在言论审查与压制政治反对力量现象，出生率暴跌，国家身份认同与自信心丧失”。

“Should present trends continue,” it goes on, “the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less.”

报告进一步警告：“若当前趋势持续，不到20年，欧洲大陆将面目全非。”

Indeed, the strategy paper warns, unless our European allies elect more “patriotic” nationalist parties, committed to stemming immigration, Europe will face “civilizational erasure.” Unstated but implied is that we will judge you not by the quality of your democracy but by the stringency by which you stem the migration flow from Muslim countries to Europe’s south.

事实上，这份战略文件明确指出，除非欧洲盟友选举出更多致力于遏制移民的“爱国”民族主义政党，否则欧洲将面临“文明消亡”。虽未明说，但言外之意是：我们评判你们的标准将不再是民主品质，而是你们阻止穆斯林国家移民涌入欧洲南部的严厉程度。

That is a flying elephant no one should ignore. It is language unlike any previous U.S. national security survey, and to my mind it reveals a deep truth about this second Trump administration: how much it came to Washington to fight America’s third civil war, not to fight the West’s new cold war.

这正是一头不容忽视的飞天大象。这种表述在以往任何一份美国国家安全报告中都未曾出现，在我看来，它揭示了第二届特朗普政府的一个深刻真相：他们入主华盛顿在多大程度上是为了打响美国的第三次内战，而不是为西方面临的新冷战而战。

Yes, in my view, we are in a new civil war over a place called home.

没错，在我看来，我们正处于一场关于何为“家园”的新内战之中。

First, I need to make a quick detour to “home.” These days there is a tendency to reduce every crisis to the dry metrics of economics, to the chessboard machinations of political or military campaigns, or to ideological manifestoes. All, of course, have their relevance, but the longer I have worked as a journalist, the more I have found that the better starting place for unlocking a story is with the disciplines of psychology and anthropology. They are often much better at revealing the primal energies, anxieties and aspirations that animate our national politics — and global geopolitics — because they uncover and illuminate not just what people say they want, but also what they fear and what they privately pray for, and why.

首先，我需要简单阐释“家园”的含义。如今，人们倾向于将所有危机简化为枯燥的经济指标、政治或军事行动的棋盘博弈，或是意识形态宣言。当然，这些都有意义，但从事记者工作多年来，我日益发现，解读一个故事，更好的起点是心理学与人类学的视角。它们往往更能揭示驱动国内政治乃至全球地缘政治的原始能量、焦虑与诉求——因为它们不仅揭露人们口头宣称的诉求，更能揭示他们恐惧什么、私下祈求什么，以及背后的深层原因。

I was not here for the Civil War of the 1860s, and I was still a boy during our second great civil struggle, the 1960s civil rights movement and the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. But I am definitely on duty for America’s third civil war. This one, like the first two, is over the questions “Whose country is this anyway?” and “Who gets to feel at home in our national house?” This civil war has been less violent than the first two — but it is early.

我未曾亲历19世纪60年代的美国内战，在20世纪60年代那场伟大的民权运动与马丁·路德·金遇刺引发的第二次内战般的抗争中，我还只是个孩子。但如今，我无疑正亲历美国的第三次内战。与前两次一样，这场内战围绕两个核心问题展开：“这个国家究竟属于谁？”以及“谁能在我们的国家里找到归属感？”如今这场内战目前比前两次暴力程度低——但一切才刚刚开始。

Humans have an enduring, structural need for home, not only as a physical shelter, but as a psychological anchor and moral compass, too. That is why Dorothy in “The Wizard of Oz” (my favorite movie) got it exactly right: “There’s no place like home.” And when people lose that sense of home — whether by war, rapid economic change, cultural change, demographic change, climate change or technological change — they tend to lose their center of gravity. They may feel as though they are being hurtled around in a tornado, grabbing desperately for anything stable enough to hold onto — and that can include any leader who seems strong enough to reattach them to that place called home, however fraudulent that leader is or unrealistic the prospect.

人类对家园有着持久的、根深蒂固的需求：它不仅是物理意义上的庇护所，更是心理支柱与道德指南针。这就是为什么《绿野仙踪》（我最爱的电影）中的桃乐丝说得千真万确：“世上没有任何地方比得上家。”当人们失去这种家园归属感——无论是因为战争、快速经济变革、文化变迁、人口结构变化、气候变化还是技术变革——他们往往会失去重心，仿佛被卷入龙卷风，拼命抓取任何足够稳固的东西——而这可能包括任何看似强大、能让他们重新锚定“家园”的领导人，无论这位领导人有多么虚伪，他所承诺的前景是多么不切实际。

With that as background, I cannot remember another time in the last 40 years when I have traveled around America, and the world, and found more people asking the same question: “Whose country is this anyway?” Or as Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right nationalist Israeli minister, put it, in Hebrew, in his political banner ads during Israel’s 2022 election: “Who is the landlord here?”

在这样的背景下，我回想过去40年间游历美国乃至世界各地的经历，从未见过如此多人反复追问同一个问题：“这究竟是谁的国家？”正如以色列极右翼民族主义部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔在2022年以色列大选的政治横幅广告中用希伯来语所问的：“这土地的主人是谁？”

And that is not an accident. Today, more people are living outside their country of birth than at any point in recorded history. There are approximately 304 million global migrants — some seeking work, some seeking education, some seeking safety from internal conflicts, some fleeing droughts and floods and deforestation. In our own hemisphere, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection office reports that migrant encounters at our southern border hit historical highs in 2023, while estimates from the Pew Research Center suggest that the total unauthorized population in America grew to 14 million in the same year, breaking a decade-long period of relative stability.

这并非偶然。如今，生活在出生国之外的人口数量已创历史之最——全球约有3.04亿移民，他们当中有人是为谋生，有人是为求学，有人是为了躲避内部冲突，有人是为了逃离干旱、洪水与森林砍伐的威胁。在我们所在的西半球，美国海关与边境保护局报告显示，2023年南部边境移民遭遇数创下历史新高；皮尤研究中心估计，同年美国非法居留人口增至1400万，打破了长达十年的相对稳定期。

But this is not just about immigrants. America’s third civil war is being fought on multiple fronts. On one front it is white, predominantly Christian Americans resisting the emergence of the minority-dominated America that is now baked into our future sometime in the 2040s, driven by lower birthrates among white Americans and growth in Hispanic, Asian and multiracial American populations.

但这不仅仅与移民有关。美国的第三次内战正在多条战线展开：其中一条战线是以白人为主的基督教美国人抵制少数族裔主导美国的趋势——受白人出生率下降以及西班牙裔、亚裔和混血美国人人口增长的推动，这一趋势将在21世纪40年代某个时候成为既定事实。

On another front are Black Americans still struggling against those who would raise new walls to keep them from a place called home. Then there are Americans of every background trying to steady themselves amid cultural currents that seem to shift by the week: new expectations about issues like identity, bathrooms and even a typeface, as well as how we acknowledge one another in the public square.

另一条战线是，非洲裔美国人仍在与那些试图筑起新壁垒、阻止他们获得家园归属感的力量抗争。还有来自各个背景的美国人正试图在瞬息万变的文化洪流中稳住阵脚：关于身份认同、卫生间使用、甚至字体选择的新规范，以及在公共场合如何打招呼的社交礼仪。

On yet another front, the gale-force winds of technological change, propelled now by artificial intelligence, are sweeping through workplaces faster than people can plant their feet. And on a fifth front, young Americans of every race, creed and color are straining to afford even a modest home — the physical and psychological harbor that has long anchored the American dream.

在第四条战线上，由人工智能驱动的技术变革正以飓风之势席卷职场，其速度远超人们适应的步伐。而在第五个战场，各个种族、信仰和肤色的美国年轻人，即便想拥有一套普通的住房都倍感压力——而住房这一实体与心理的港湾长期以来一直是美国梦的核心锚点。

My sense is that we now have millions of Americans waking up each morning unsure of the social script, the economic ladder or the cultural norms that are OK to practice in their home. They are psychologically homeless.

我的感受是，如今，有数以百万计美国人每天醒来，都不确定自己在这个“家园”中应遵循的社会规则、可依赖的经济阶梯，或是可践行的文化规范。他们在心理上处于无家可归的状态。

When Donald Trump made building a wall along the Mexican border the central motif of his first campaign, he instinctively chose a word that did double duty for millions of Americans. “Wall” meant a physical barrier against uncontrolled immigration that was accelerating our transition to a minority-majority-led America. But it also meant a wall against the pace and scope of change: the cultural, digital and generational whirlwinds reshaping daily life.

将特朗普把美墨边境的高墙作为首次竞选的核心主题时，他本能地选择了一个对成百上千万美国人而言具有双重意义的词。“墙”既指阻挡失控移民的物理屏障——这些移民正加速推动美国向少数族裔主导国家的转型；“墙”也象征着壁垒，抵御着那些快速和大规模的变革，就是那些重塑日常生活的文化、数字与代际风暴。

That, to me, is the deep backdrop to Trump’s National Security Strategy. He is not interested in refighting the Cold War to defend and expand the frontiers of democracy. He is, in my view, interested in fighting the civilizational war over what is the American “home” and what is the European “home,” with an emphasis on race and Christian-Judeo faith — and who is an ally in that war and who is not.

在我看来，这正是特朗普国家安全战略的深层背景。他无意重新打响冷战，去捍卫和扩大民主疆域，而是一心想打响一场关于“美国家园”与“欧洲家园”本质的文明之战，其核心是种族与犹太-基督教信仰，并界定谁是盟友、谁是敌人。

The economics writer Noah Smith argued in his Substack this week that this was the key reason the MAGA movement began to turn away from Western Europe and draw closer to Vladimir Putin’s Russia — because Trump’s devotees saw Putin as more of a defender of white Christian nationalism and traditional values than the nations of the European Union.

经济专栏作家诺亚·史密斯本周在Substack撰文指出，这正是“让美国再次伟大”运动开始疏远西欧、与普京领导的俄罗斯走近的关键原因——因为特朗普的追随者认为，相较于欧盟国家，普京更像是白人基督教民族主义与传统价值观的捍卫者。

Historically, “in the American mind,” Smith wrote, “Europe stood across the sea as a place of timeless homogeneity, where the native white population had always been and would always remain.” However, “in the 2010s, it dawned on those Americans that this hallowed image of Europe was no longer accurate. With their working population dwindling, European countries took in millions of Muslim refugees and other immigrants from the Middle East and Central and South Asia — many of whom didn’t assimilate nearly as well as their peers in the U.S. You’d hear people say things like ‘Paris isn’t Paris anymore.’”

史密斯写道，历史上，“在美国人的认知中，隔海相望的欧洲是一个永恒同质的地方，在那里，本土白人人口一直存在，并将永远存在。”然而，“21世纪10年代，这些美国人逐渐意识到，欧洲这一神圣形象已不再准确。随着劳动人口减少，欧洲国家接纳了数以百万计来自中东、中亚和南亚的穆斯林难民及其他移民——其中许多人的同化程度远不及美国同类移民群体。你会听到人们说‘巴黎不再是那个巴黎’这类话。”

Today’s MAGA-led American right, Smith added, does “not care intrinsically about democracy, or about allyship, or about NATO, or about the European project. They care about ‘Western civilization.’ Unless Europe expels Muslim immigrants en masse and starts talking about its Christian heritage, the Republican Party is unlikely to lift a hand to help Europe with any of its problems.”

史密斯还说，如今，由“让美国再次伟大”主导的美国右翼“本质上并不关心民主、盟友关系、北约或欧洲一体化项目。他们关心的是‘西方文明’。除非欧洲大规模驱逐穆斯林移民，并开始强调其基督教遗产，否则共和党不太可能出手帮助欧洲解决任何问题。”

In other words, when protecting “Western civilization” — with a focus on race and faith — become the centerpiece of U.S. national security, the biggest threat becomes uncontrolled immigration into America and Western Europe — not Russia or China. And “protecting American culture, ‘spiritual health’ and ‘traditional families’ are framed as core national security requirements,” as the defense analyst Rick Landgraf pointed out on the defense website “War on the Rocks.”

换言之，当保护以种族和信仰为核心的“西方文明”成为美国国家安全的重中之重时，最大的威胁就变成了涌入美国和西欧的不受控移民，而非俄罗斯或中国。正如国防分析师里克·兰德格拉夫在国防网站War on the Rocks上指出的，“保护美国文化、‘精神健康’和‘传统家庭’被定义为核心国家安全需求。”

And that’s why the Trump National Security Strategy paper is no accident or the work of a few low-level ideologues. It is, in fact, the Rosetta Stone explaining what really animates this administration at home and abroad.

正因如此，特朗普政府的国家安全战略并非偶然，也非少数低级意识形态分子的杰作。事实上，它就像一块罗塞塔石碑，阐释着本届政府国内外政策的真正驱动力。