China and the United States are closer than they’ve ever been to a war over Taiwan.

中美因台湾问题爆发战争的可能性比以往任何时候都要高。

A dangerous feedback loop has set in over the past decade: Taiwanese defiance toward China provokes aggressive bluster from Beijing, leading to stronger rhetorical support for Taiwan in Washington. The self-reinforcing pattern repeats itself. Each time, it moves Taiwan more to the center of the U.S.-China relationship, increases the risk of conflict and provokes fretful analysis over what to do about this seemingly intractable situation.

过去十年里，一个危险的反馈回路已经形成：台湾对中国的反抗态度引发北京的强硬叫嚣，进而促使华盛顿对台湾表达更强烈的言辞支持。这个自我强化的模式不断重复。每次都将台湾推向中美关系的更核心位置，加剧冲突风险，并引发外界对这一看似难以化解局势的不安解读。

This arc was not preordained. Nor is it immutable, and in Donald Trump, the United States has a norm-defying president uniquely positioned to reverse it.

这一发展轨迹并非注定，也不是不可改变。因为唐纳德·特朗普，美国拥有了一位打破常规的总统，他具备独特条件来扭转这一趋势。

The Trump administration’s best bet for avoiding war would be to boldly seek a fresh deal with China, restoring equilibrium across the Taiwan Strait by offering to dial back U.S. defense buildups in the region and putting Taiwan on notice that American military backup is neither assured nor boundless.

特朗普政府若想避免战争，最佳的策略或许是大胆推动与中国达成新协议，通过提出缩减美国在该地区的防务部署来恢复台海两岸的平衡，同时明确告知台湾：美国的军事支持既不是理所当然的，也不是无限度的。

If that seems deceptively simple and logical, it’s because it’s worked before, to everyone’s benefit.

如果这一策略看似简单、又合乎逻辑，那是因为它曾经奏效过，并让各方受益。

Taiwan has been a thorn in U.S.-China relations ever since Communist forces took control of China in 1949, driving the U.S.-backed Nationalists to Taiwan. China has never given up its goal of unifying the island with the mainland. In the 1970s, Beijing and Washington reached a nuanced compromise: The United States affirmed that the government in Beijing was China’s sole legal authority and acknowledged Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China. America also refrained from supporting Taiwan’s independence and limited contact with Taipei to unofficial channels, even while providing it arms and other military backing.

自1949年共产党军队控制中国、将美国支持的国民党驱逐到台湾以来，台湾一直是扎在美中之间的一根刺。中国从未放弃将该岛与大陆统一的目标。上世纪70年代，北京和华盛顿达成了一项微妙的妥协：美国承认北京政府是中国唯一合法政权，并认可北京关于台湾是中国一部分的立场。美国还避免支持台湾独立，并将与台北的接触限制在非官方渠道，尽管同时向台湾提供武器和其他军事支持。

This ambivalent balancing act proved remarkably successful, with the resulting stability allowing China, Taiwan and much of Asia to prosper. The United States benefited greatly from soaring trade and other cooperation with the region, and to this day Taiwan remains a vibrant, self-governing democracy.

这种模棱两可的平衡举措取得了显著成功，由此带来的稳定局面使中国、台湾以及亚洲大部分地区得以繁荣发展。美国也从与该地区不断增长的贸易和其他合作中获益良多，直到今天，台湾依然是一个充满活力的自治民主政体。

Things began breaking down in earnest in 2016 when Taiwan elected Tsai Ing-wen, a president who departed sharply from her predecessor’s approach of accommodating China, which responded by ramping up military and economic pressure on the island. Mr. Trump, too, irked Beijing, breaking with protocol to accept a congratulatory call from Ms. Tsai after his own 2016 win and easing restrictions on diplomatic contact with Taiwan.

2016年，台湾选出蔡英文担任总统之后，局势开始瓦解。她的政策与前任明显不同，不再采取迁就中国的做法。对此，中国加大了对台湾的军事和经济压力，同样，特朗普也惹恼了北京——在2016年赢得总统大选后，他破例接听了蔡英文的祝贺电话，并放宽了与台湾的外交接触限制。

More damage was done under President Joe Biden, who repeatedly said he would send U.S. forces to defend Taiwan against attack, parting from longtime “strategic ambiguity” on that question. (Officials later affirmed that U.S. policy remained unchanged.) And, in 2022, after Nancy Pelosi made the first visit to Taipei by a sitting U.S. speaker of the House in 25 years, Chinese military intimidation of Taiwan escalated.

在拜登总统任内，局势进一步恶化。他多次表示，如果台湾遭受攻击，美国将派遣军队协防，这打破了长期以来在这一问题上的“战略模糊”政策。（官员们随后确认美国政策并未改变。）此外，2022年，佩洛西成为25年来首位访问台北的在任美国众议院议长后，中国对台湾的军事恫吓升级。

Mr. Trump, who is seeking deals with China on trade and security, so far appears wary of antagonizing Beijing over this issue in his second term. This summer his administration denied a request by President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan to stop over in the United States en route to Latin America and canceled defense talks with Taipei.

特朗普目前正寻求与中国在贸易和安全领域达成协议，在第二任期内，他似乎对于在台湾问题激怒北京持谨慎态度。今年夏天，他的政府拒绝了台湾总统赖清德过境美国前往拉丁美洲的请求，并取消了与台北的防务会谈。

The president must go further by strongly reaffirming that the United States does not support Taiwan independence, reimposing restrictions on diplomatic contact and stopping congressional and State Department efforts to expand Taipei’s participation in international organizations, all of which China opposes. The Trump administration could also remove U.S. military trainers from Taiwan and weapon systems in the region that provoke China as much as they deter it.

总统必须采取更进一步的措施，坚决重申美国不支持台湾独立，重新施加对外交接触的限制，并停止国会和国务院扩大台北参与国际组织的努力——这些都是中国所反对的。特朗普政府还可以撤回在台湾的美国军事教官，以及撤除那些在该地区既挑衅中国又企图威慑中国的武器系统。

Mr. Trump should of course seek reciprocal steps from China, such as a declaration that Beijing has no timeline for achieving unification with Taiwan nor any firm intent to use force. China must also commit to scaling back cyber warfare, military threats and trade sanctions that stoke fear and defiance on Taiwan.

特朗普当然应当寻求中国采取对等的措施，例如要求北京公开宣布不对台湾统一设定时间表，也没有使用武力的坚定意图。中国还必须承诺减少网络战争、军事威胁和贸易制裁，这些行为加剧了台湾的恐惧和反抗情绪。

This proposal find receptive ears in Beijing. China, too, hopes to avoid a war and its enormous costs. There is no guarantee that the difficult air, land and sea campaign required to seize Taiwan would succeed, and failure would be humiliating for the Chinese Communist Party, potentially even undermining its legitimacy at home. President Xi Jinping is struggling to rein in persistent corruption in the People’s Liberation Army that could affect military readiness, and it is uncertain whether the country’s slowing economy could withstand a lengthy conflict and the resulting trade disruptions.

这一提议在北京得到了积极回应。中国同样希望避免战争及其带来的巨大代价。夺取台湾所需的艰难的空中、陆地和海上作战并不能保证成功，而失败将对中国共产党造成极大羞辱，甚至可能动摇它在国内的合法性。习近平主席正在吃力地遏制解放军内部顽固存在的腐败问题，这些问题可能影响军队的战备状态。此外，随着中国经济放缓，是否能够承受长时间的冲突及由此带来的贸易中断也充满不确定性。

Making a deal with China is politically risky for Mr. Trump. Support for Taiwan has grown in Washington, especially in his own party, and the president could face accusations of appeasing Beijing and abandoning a democratic friend. But Mr. Trump is uniquely immune to such pushback. He has whipped a compliant Republican Party and Congress into line and, as a second-term president, needn’t worry about re-election.

对特朗普来说，与中国达成协议在政治上是有风险的。支持台湾的声音在华盛顿不断上升，尤其是在他所属的共和党内，总统可能会面临姑息北京、背弃民主盟友的指责。但特朗普具有独特的免疫力，能够抵御这些反对声音。他已经将顺从的共和党和国会控制起来，使他们听从自己的指挥，而且作为第二任期的总统，他无需担心连任的问题。

At any rate, this isn’t about abandoning Taiwan. It’s merely about reducing its central role in U.S.-China ties. Taiwan is of course valuable to the United States, not only symbolically as a fellow democracy but also as a source of advanced semiconductors. But even all that is not worth America’s going to war. China is a formidable military power, with a growing arsenal of missiles and nuclear weapons that can reach the U.S. mainland. With its military resources already overstretched by conflicts elsewhere, the United States can ill afford conflict with China.

无论如何，这样做并不是要抛弃台湾，而只是要降低台湾在美中关系中的核心地位。台湾对美国当然有价值，不仅象征着一个同为民主政体的伙伴，还因其是先进半导体的重要来源。但即使如此，也不值得让美国为之开战。中国是一个强大的军事大国，拥有不断增长的导弹和核武库，能够打击美国本土。鉴于军事资源已因其他冲突而捉襟见肘，美国实在难以承担与中国的冲突。

Taiwan has been an important factor in the spiral of destabilization. Mr. Lai, who won office in January 2024, has taken an even more confrontational stance toward China than Ms. Tsai did. Taipei must be made aware that the United States may not be there to help, and should refrain from inflaming Beijing. That, in the end, may be the best way to preserve Taiwan’s freedoms.

台湾一直是导致局势恶化的一个重要因素。于2024年1月就职的赖清德对中国的立场比蔡英文更具有对抗性。必须让台北意识到，美国可能不会出手相助，并且应避免刺激北京。最终，这或许是维护台湾自由的最佳方式。

An overture like this could, of course, fail. But that would leave the situation no worse than it is now. And merely making the effort would send the important signal that the United States is willing to give and take on issues of great importance to China.

这样的提议当然可能失败，但那也不会让局势比现在更糟。仅仅是作出这样的努力就会传递一个重要信号——美国愿意在对中国极为重要的问题上采取有予有取的态度。

A war between the United States and China would have no winners. Preventing one would rightfully secure Mr. Trump the place in history as a peacemaker that he so covets.

美中战争不会有赢家。若能避免冲突，特朗普就能理所当然地在历史上赢得他所渴望的“和平缔造者”的地位。