President-elect Donald J. Trump comes to office with a view of America’s place in the world that is dramatically different from his predecessor’s.

对于美国在世界中应处于何种位置，候任总统特朗普持有与前任迥异的看法。

Branding President Biden’s foreign policy as “historically horrible,” Mr. Trump is vowing to reinstate an America First approach that in his first term swept away years of policy consensus and shook U.S. alliances around the world.

特朗普称拜登总统的外交政策“向来差劲”，发誓要恢复“美国优先”的方针，在他的第一个任期内，这种方针扫除了多年的政策共识，动摇了美国在世界各地的联盟。

He wants friendly relations with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, may slash U.S. support for Ukraine and has threatened to withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. He admires foreign autocrats and shows little interest in Mr. Biden’s goal of championing democracy abroad. He is hostile to international organizations and treaties including the United Nations and the Paris climate accord.

他希望与俄罗斯总统普京建立友好关系，这可能会削减美国对乌克兰的支持；他还威胁要退出北大西洋公约组织。他钦佩外国的独裁者，对拜登在海外倡导民主的目标兴趣不大。他敌视包括联合国和巴黎气候协议在内的国际组织和条约。

But amid the many areas of potential disruption, Mr. Trump will also find plenty of things to like in Mr. Biden’s policies. Beyond the glaring exceptions of Europe and his plans for Russia and Ukraine, Mr. Trump’s initial approach could bear a surprising resemblance to the Biden status quo.

但是，在许多可能造成混乱的领域中，特朗普也会发现，拜登的政策有很多值得称道之处。除了欧洲这个明显的例外，以及他对俄罗斯和乌克兰的计划之外，特朗普在一开始的路线可能与拜登留下的现状有着惊人的相似。

One reason is that abrupt foreign policy swerves are rare and difficult to execute, analysts say. America’s military, economic and political power tends to provide a fairly fixed amount of leverage over other countries. Pressure from allies, Congress and the federal bureaucracy push commanders-in-chief toward consensus views.

分析人士说，原因之一是外交政策的突然转变是很少见的，而且很难执行。美国的军事、经济和政治力量往往对其他国家提供相当固定的影响力。来自盟友、国会和联邦官僚机构的压力会推动三军总司令们达成共识。

“There tends to be more continuity between administrations of different parties — even administrations of very different styles, like Trump and Biden — than the casual observer might expect,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a nonpartisan Washington think tank. “We tend to focus on the big differences.”

“不同党派的政府之间往往有更多的连续性，比一般观察者可能预期的要多，甚至特朗普和拜登这样风格迥异的政府也是如此，”华盛顿无党派智库新美国安全中心的首席执行官理查德·方丹说。“我们倾向于去关注那些大的差异。”

One reason is that Mr. Biden continued several key policies from the first Trump term.

原因之一是拜登延续了特朗普第一任期内的几项关键政策。

In his dealings with such countries as Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, China and even Israel, Mr. Biden broke with Mr. Trump’s approach in relatively modest or short-lived ways. National security strategy plans issued by both the Trump and Biden White Houses identified “strategic competition” with China and Russia as the north star of U.S. policy.

在与古巴、伊朗、委内瑞拉、中国甚至以色列等国打交道时，拜登以相对温和或短暂的方式打破了特朗普的做法。特朗普和拜登政府发布的国家安全战略计划都将与中国和俄罗斯的“战略竞争”确定为美国政策的北极星。

拜登总统最初因沙特阿拉伯侵犯人权而将其称为 “被排斥”的国家，但最终还是接受了沙特阿拉伯以石油为动力的影响力。2022年7月，他会见了王储兼首相穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼。

Saudi Arabia is a prime example. Mr. Biden initially branded the kingdom a “pariah” over the 2018 murder of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi and other human rights abuses. The president also suspended offensive weapons for Saudi Arabia’s military campaign against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, which he said was causing a humanitarian disaster.

沙特阿拉伯就是一个典型的例子。最初，由于2018年沙特持不同政见者贾马尔·卡舒吉遭到谋杀，以及其他侵犯人权行为，拜登将沙特称为“被排斥”的国家。此外，针对沙特阿拉伯对由伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装分子的军事行动，拜登暂停为这些军事行动提供进攻性武器。拜登表示，相关行动造成了一场人道主义灾难。

But Mr. Biden has since bowed to the reality of Saudi Arabia’s oil-powered influence. He restored the arms shipments and has sent aides to Riyadh in pursuit of a U.S.-Saudi security agreement that would bring the two countries closer militarily, on the condition that Saudi Arabia establish formal diplomatic relations with Israel.

但拜登后来屈服于沙特阿拉伯石油主导影响力的现实。他恢复了武器输送，并派遣助手前往利雅得寻求达成一项美国-沙特安全协议，该协议将使两国在军事上更加紧密，条件是沙特阿拉伯与以色列建立正式外交关系。

“Biden went from trying to make the Saudis a pariah to trying to make them a treaty ally of the United States,” Mr. Fontaine noted — an approach Mr. Trump is expected to continue.

“拜登一开始试图让沙特成为被排斥的国家，后来又试图让他们成为美国的条约盟友，”方丹指出——预计特朗普会延续这种做法。

Mr. Trump’s plans for China are hazy, beyond threats to impose huge tariffs on its exported goods. But Mr. Biden will hand off an approach built on foundations laid in Mr. Trump’s first term. They include a muscular U.S. military presence in East Asia to counter Chinese territorial aggression, tough action against Chinese technology that could threaten American security and existing tariffs — first imposed by Mr. Trump and left in place by Mr. Biden.

除了威胁要对中国出口商品征收高额关税外，特朗普对中国的计划尚不明确。但拜登留下的是一份建立在特朗普第一任期基础上的方案。其中包括美国为对抗中国的区域性进犯，在东亚建立强大的军事存在，对可能威胁美国安全的中国技术采取的强硬行动，以及现有的关税——它们最初由特朗普征收，被拜登保留下来。

拜登总统和中国国家主席习近平本月在秘鲁利马举行会晤。特朗普和拜登政府都将与中国和俄罗斯的“战略竞争”视为美国政策的北极星。

Mr. Biden has softened his competitive approach with dialogue and speaks regularly with China’s president, Xi Jinping — but so did Mr. Trump.

拜登通过对话缓和了竞争态度，并定期与中国国家主席习近平交谈——但特朗普也是如此。

One wild card is Taiwan. Mr. Biden vowed to defend the democratic island from a Chinese invasion; Mr. Trump has sounded ambivalent. But several of Mr. Trump’s top national security picks, including Michael Waltz for national security adviser and Marco Rubio for secretary of state, are China hawks committed to Taiwan’s defense.

台湾是一个不确定因素。拜登誓言保卫这个民主的岛屿不受中国入侵；特朗普的态度似乎模棱两可。但特朗普提名的几位国家安全事务高级官员，包括担任国家安全顾问的迈克尔·瓦尔兹和担任国务卿的马尔科·卢比奥，都是致力于保卫台湾的对华鹰派。

As a candidate, Mr. Trump claimed that Mr. Biden had lifted the sanctions he had piled onto Iran’s economy as part of his first-term “maximum pressure” policy. In fact, Mr. Biden left those sanctions intact. The difference was in the need for enforcement: Iran eventually found ways to increase its black market oil sales, reaping billions in revenue, but Mr. Biden took only modest steps in response. Trump advisers say he will crack down.

竞选期间，特朗普声称拜登解除了他对伊朗经济施加的制裁，这是他第一个任期内“极限施压”政策的一部分。事实上，拜登没有改变这些制裁措施。区别在于执行的必要性：伊朗最终找到了增加黑市石油销售的方法，获得了数十亿美元的收入，但拜登只采取了温和的回应措施。特朗普的顾问表示，他将采取打击行动。

But Mr. Trump will face the same hard choices, including added tensions with China, the top customer for Iran’s illicit oil, and the prospect of higher oil prices caused by any loss in Iranian supply. After campaigning on inflation and high gas prices, Mr. Trump may be especially wary.

但特朗普将面临同样的艰难选择，包括与伊朗非法石油的最大客户中国的紧张关系加剧，以及伊朗供应的任何损失都可能导致油价上涨的前景。在竞选中主打通胀和高油价牌的特朗普在这方面可能尤其忌讳。

This time around, Mr. Trump will have no Iran nuclear deal to rip up, as he did in his first term. Mr. Biden tried without success to restore the Obama-era agreement, which slowed Iran’s progress toward a potential atomic bomb. Now, with Iran closer than ever to nuclear weapons capability, Mr. Trump sounds prepared to try again: “We have to make a deal,” he told reporters in September, calling an Iranian bomb an “impossible” outcome.

这一次，特朗普不会像第一个任期那样撕毁伊朗核协议。拜登曾试图恢复奥巴马时代的协议，但没有成功。该协议减缓了伊朗研发原子弹的进程。现在，随着伊朗比以往任何时候都更接近拥有核武器的能力，特朗普似乎准备再次尝试，“我们必须达成协议，”他在9月告诉记者，并称让伊朗拥有核弹是“不可能”的结果。

Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution, said she expected “significant continuity in U.S. policy on Iran” under Mr. Trump, noting that both Democratic and Republican presidents have sought to coerce and negotiate with the country’s Islamic government. “That includes the first Trump administration,” she added. “The complexity of the challenges posed by Tehran provides few easy alternatives, as prior presidents have found.”

布鲁金斯学会的伊朗问题专家苏珊·马洛尼表示，她预计特朗普执政期间，“美国对伊朗政策会有很大的连续性，”并指出民主党和共和党总统都曾试图胁迫该国的伊斯兰政府，并与其进行谈判。“这包括第一届特朗普政府，”她还说。“正如前几任总统所发现的那样，德黑兰带来的挑战的错综复杂，几乎没有简单的替代方案。”

Mr. Trump, Ms. Maloney said, will most likely be more willing to take risks with Iran, as when he ordered the assassination of the Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. But his pressure campaign will probably include efforts to talk, she said.

马洛尼说，特朗普很可能会更愿意在伊朗问题上冒险，就像他在2020年1月下令暗杀伊朗指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼那样。但她说，他的施压行动可能会包括谈判努力。

Mr. Trump casts himself as Israel’s best friend in American politics, and he may give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wide latitude on security issues and his treatment of Palestinians. But so did Mr. Biden. While the Biden administration often criticized Mr. Netanyahu’s conduct of the war in Gaza, it took few concrete steps to restrain his behavior.

特朗普把自己塑造成以色列在美国政治中最好的朋友，他可能会在安全问题和对待巴勒斯坦人的方式上给以色列总理内塔尼亚胡更大的自由度。但拜登也是如此。虽然拜登政府经常批评内塔尼亚胡在加沙战争中的行为，但几乎没有采取具体措施对他进行约束。

德黑兰的一块广告牌显示，拜登总统和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡与伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什金和武装部队总司令穆罕默德·巴盖里将军对峙。

Some Biden officials fear that Mr. Trump could green-light an Israeli move to annex the occupied West Bank, something Mr. Biden would never accept. But in his first term Mr. Trump opposed a plan by Mr. Netanyahu to annex large parts of the West Bank, and such a move now could spoil his high hopes for a Saudi-Israel diplomatic agreement.

拜登的一些官员担心，特朗普可能会为以色列吞并被占领的约旦河西岸的行动开绿灯，而这是拜登绝不会接受的。但在第一个任期内，特朗普曾反对内塔尼亚胡吞并约旦河西岸大部分地区的计划，现在，这样的举动可能会破坏他对沙特—以色列外交协议所寄予的期望。

During his first term, Mr. Trump complained that the war in Afghanistan was “a waste.” But he never completed a U.S. withdrawal — another reminder that big strategic changes are hard to pull off quickly. Mr. Biden wound up solving the problem for him, by executing on a withdrawal agreement that Mr. Trump had negotiated with the Taliban. Mr. Trump even initially called that “a wonderful and positive thing to do,” before hammering Mr. Biden over the chaotic nature of the American exit. Neither has any inclination to deal with the Taliban leaders today.

在第一个任期内，特朗普抱怨阿富汗战争是“浪费”。但他从未完成美国的撤军计划——这再次提醒人们，重大的战略变化很难迅速实现。拜登最终通过执行特朗普与塔利班谈判达成的撤军协议，替他解决了这个问题。特朗普最初甚至称这是“一件很棒的、积极的事情”，然后又就美国退出的混乱性质抨击拜登。目前，双方都无意与塔利班领导人打交道。

And in Cuba, U.S. policy remains much as Mr. Trump left it four years ago — frosty and stagnant. As president Mr. Trump took measures to roll back the Obama administration’s diplomatic opening, including by restoring Cuba to the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. Mr. Biden never undid that move. Similarly, Mr. Biden has largely maintained heavy Trump-era sanctions on Venezuela meant to pressure its authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, from power.

在古巴，美国的政策与特朗普四年前的政策大致相同——冷淡而停滞。担任总统期间，特朗普采取措施推翻奥巴马政府的外交开放，包括将古巴重新列入美国的支持恐怖主义国家名单。拜登始终没有撤销这一举措。同样，拜登基本上维持了特朗普时代对委内瑞拉的严厉制裁，目的是迫使其独裁领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗下台。

Even some foreign officials worried about Mr. Trump’s intentions are consoling themselves with the idea that his disruptive instincts may have limits.

就连一些担心特朗普意图的外国官员也在自我安慰，认为他的破坏性本能可能是有限度的。

One European diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Mr. Trump’s election had created a climate of uncertainty and alarm on the continent. But asked about the prospect that Mr. Trump would withdraw the United States from NATO, the diplomat said he and many of his colleagues thought that fear is overblown.

一名不愿透露姓名的欧洲外交官表示，特朗普的当选在欧洲大陆制造了一种不确定和恐慌的气氛。但当被问及特朗普让美国退出北约的前景时，这位外交官说，他和他的许多同事认为，这种担忧被夸大了。

Few in Europe, he said, believe that Mr. Trump will actually take such a radical step.

他说，在欧洲，很少有人相信特朗普真的会采取如此激进的举措。