His expensive tax cuts have been signed into law. His steep global tariffs are taking clearer shape. And his twin campaigns to deregulate government and deport immigrants are well underway.

他已把代价高昂的减税政策签署为法律。他对全球各国征收的关税正逐渐成型。他的两大运动——放松政府监管、驱逐移民——都正在如火如荼地进行中。

With the major components of his agenda now coming into focus, President Trump has already left an indelible mark on the U.S. economy. The triumphs and turbulence that may soon arise will squarely belong to him.

随着特朗普总统议程的主要内容逐渐清晰，他已给美国经济留下了不可磨灭的印记。不久可能出现的成就和动荡都将毫无疑问地属于他。

Not even six months into his second term, Mr. Trump has forged ahead with the grand and potentially disruptive economic experiment that he first previewed during the 2024 campaign. His actions in recent weeks have staked the future of the nation’s finances — and its centuries-old trading relationships — on a belief that many economists’ most dire warnings are wrong.

第二次担任总统还不到六个月，特朗普已顺利推进了他最初在2024年大选期间提出的宏大且具有潜在颠覆力的经济实验。他最近几周的行动已把美国财政的未来以及延续了几个世纪的贸易关系押注在一个信念上：许多经济学家的最严厉警告是错误的。

Last week, the president enacted a sprawling set of tax cuts that he believes to be the ingredients for rapid economic growth, even as fiscal experts warned that the law may injure the poor while putting the U.S. government on a risky new fiscal path.

上周，特朗普将庞大的一揽子减税措施签署为法律，他相信这是推动经济快速增长的要素，尽管财政专家们警告，该法律有可能损害穷人的利益，同时将美国政府推上一条危险的新财政路线。

Then, on Monday, Mr. Trump began to issue his latest round of tariff threats, insisting that “we’re done” negotiating as economists warned about a potential surge in consumer prices that could arise from taxing imports.

然后，特朗​​普开始在周一发出最新一轮关税威胁，坚称“我们不再有”谈判的时间，而经济学家们则警告说，对进口商品征收关税可能会导致消费者价格飙升。

The White House also proceeded with its aggressive and legally contested plans to eliminate scores of federal regulations and deport millions of migrants. The immigration crackdown, in particular, could come to the detriment of many sectors, like agriculture, that rely heavily on foreign labor, experts believe.

白宫也在继续推进其激进的、法律上存在争议的计划，以取消数十项联邦法规，驱逐数百万移民。专家们认为，打击移民的行动尤其有可能给农业等许多严重依赖外国劳动力的行业造成伤害。

So far, the U.S. economy has remained resilient in the face of these seismic changes, while Mr. Trump has ascribed the faintest hint of negative news to his predecessor, former President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

即使面对这些巨变，美国经济到目前为止仍保持着韧性，同时，特朗普将任何负面消息的蛛丝马迹都归咎于前总统拜登。

“I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy because he’s done a terrible job,” Mr. Trump told NBC’s “Meet the Press” in May.

“我认为好的部分是特朗普经济，坏的部分是拜登经济，因为他做得很糟糕，”特朗普5月在NBC的“会见新闻界”节目上说。

But the president has now achieved broad swaths of what he set out to do, making him responsible for the highs or lows on the horizon. The coming months will serve as a gauge of whether he is merely enjoying a calm before a damaging storm — or is correct in asserting that his agenda is not as perilous as many economists have feared.

但现在，特朗普已基本上实现了他设定的目标，未来经济的荣衰都将直接归责于他。接下来的几个月将检验他究竟是在暴风雨前享受片刻的宁静，还是如他所坚称的那样的——他的议程并不像许多经济学家担心的那般危险。

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

白宫没有回应置评请求。

迈阿密的一个购物中心。作为美国经济增长主要驱动力的消费支出已开始走弱。

For the moment, the U.S. economy appears strong, even as it shows some early signs of strain.

美国经济虽然目前似乎表现强劲，但也显示出一些承压的早期迹象。

Last month, the United States added 147,000 jobs, beating analysts’ expectations. Yet the sources of that growth also appeared to narrow, evidenced in a continued slump in manufacturing jobs and lackluster hiring across the retail and professional services sectors. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1 percent, but the number of people out of work for more than six months rose.

上个月，美国新增了14.7万个就业岗位，超出分析师预期。但就业增长来源似乎在缩小，证据包括制造业的就业岗位持续下降，各种零售业和专业服务部门的招聘疲软。虽然失业率略微下降至4.1%，但失业超过六个月的人数有所增长。

While inflation remained relatively muted through May, consumer spending, which is the primary driver of U.S. economic growth, has started to sputter, as Americans pull back on purchases after months of stockpiling to get ahead of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.

尽管5月份的通货膨胀率保持在温和水平，但美国经济增长的主要引擎——消费者支出已开始熄火，美国人已开始减少购买，因为他们为了应对特朗普的关税，曾在今年前几个月里囤积物资。

David Kelly, the chief global strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, still described the U.S. economy as a “relatively healthy tortoise,” resilient and expanding, slowly but surely. He projected that the nation’s gross domestic product, a measure of its total output, would grow about 1 percent by the end of 2025 compared with the year prior.

摩根大通资产管理公司的首席全球策略师戴维·凯利仍把美国经济描述为“相对健康的乌龟”，具备韧劲而且持续增长，虽然缓慢但稳健。他的预测是，美国到2025年底时国内生产总值将较上年增长约1%。

But, he added, the economy has reached a “bit of a diversion in the road,” as some of Mr. Trump’s new policies start to take effect.

但他补充说，随着特朗普的一些新政策开始生效，美国经济已遇到“一点偏离”。

At the heart of that agenda is an expensive new domestic policy law, which Mr. Trump signed into law on Friday. The package primarily preserves a set of low tax rates clinched during the president’s first term, while provisioning new, and in some cases generous, tax reductions for businesses, seniors and certain workers, including those who earn overtime.

该议程的核心是一揽子代价高昂的国内新政策法规，特朗普已在上周五将其签署生效。该法案主要保留了特朗普上次担任总统期间确定的一组低税率，同时为企业、老年人和某些工人（包括拿加班费的工人）提供了新的、在有些情况下相当慷慨的减税。

Many Americans, particularly the wealthy, could see lower tax bills in the coming years, congressional analysts previously found. But Republicans financed that package with deep cuts to federal safety net programs, which could leave poorer Americans worse off under a law that’s still expected to add more than $3 trillion to the debt.

据国会分析师们此前的计算，许多美国人，尤其是富人，可能会在未来几年看到更低的税账单。但共和党人为减税方案提供资金的办法是大幅削减联邦保障网，这可能会让较穷的美国人境况更糟，而且预计该法案仍会让政府债务增加逾3万亿美元。

Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said the cost of the legislation would send a key measure of the nation’s fiscal imbalance — the ratio of its debt to total output — to a level not seen since after World War II. That would weigh down private investment and push up the costs of borrowing money, not only for the government but also for average Americans.

美国联邦预算问责委员会主席玛雅·麦金尼斯说，该法案的后果是将衡量国家财政失衡的一个关键指标——政府债务占国内生产总值比重——推升到第二次世界大战以来的最高水平。这不仅会抑制私人投资，还会推高借贷成本，对政府和普通民众皆然。

“This will slow economic growth,” predicted Ms. MacGuineas, whose group supports deficit reduction.

“这将放慢经济增长，”麦金尼斯预测说，她所在机构支持削减联邦赤字。

特朗普上周签署了减税法案，他称减税将加快经济增长速度，尽管财政专家警告，减税法案可能会让美国走上危险的新财政路线。

Mr. Trump and his top aides have swatted away those predictions. Last month, they estimated that the tax measure — and the rest of the president’s agenda — would generate enough revenue and economic activity to reduce deficits by as much as about $11 trillion. Even conservative economists have said some of the administration’s predictions are overly rosy.

特朗普和他的高级助手们已对这些预测进行反驳。上个月，他们曾估计减税措施——以及总统的其他议程——将产生足够多的收入和经济活动，从而将联邦赤字最多减少约11万亿美元。就连保守派的经济学家们也表示，政府的某些预测过于乐观。

“The growth that’s just attributed to the tax cut is way too hot, even compared with what conservatives like me would say,” said Glenn Hubbard, who served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush. “It’s just way, way, way out of line.”

“他们计算的减税政策带来的增长太夸张，就连我这样的保守派也会这样说，”曾在乔治·W·布什总统任内担任经济顾问委员会主席的格伦·哈伯德说。“简直是太、太、太不合理了。”

Some of that revenue is expected to come from Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which he broadened this week. Targeting an initial batch of 14 countries, the president on Monday threatened duties as high as 40 percent unless those nations strike favorable trade deals with the United States.

联邦政府的部分收入预计将来自特朗普的关税，他已在本周扩大了关税范围。特朗普已在周一对首批14个国家发出威胁，除非这些国家与美国达成有利于美国的贸易协议，否则将对它们的出口产品征收最高40%的关税。

By Tuesday, Mr. Trump promised to unveil new duties on imported drugs, computer chips and copper, as he promised that “the big money will start coming in on Aug. 1.” The president’s top advisers have said they expect to collect more than $300 billion from tariffs by the end of the year, and Mr. Trump is expected to inform a “minimum” of seven additional countries about the higher levies that they will face next month.

特朗普周二承诺将公布对进口药品、计算机芯片，以及铜征收的新关税，并宣称“大笔收入将在8月1日开始进来”。总统的高级顾问们已表示，他们预计到今年年底时，关税将给联邦政府带来逾3000亿美元的收入，特朗普预计还将通知“至少”七个其他国家，它们将在下个月面临更高的关税。

Mr. Trump’s trade brinkmanship dates back to April, when he announced and later suspended a vast set of eye-watering duties in the hopes of striking trade deals globally. Most economists warned during that 90-day pause that his tariffs, if carried out, would inflict severe economic harm, a set of alarms they renewed this week as the president doubled down on his approach.

特朗普的贸易边缘政策始于今年4月，他当时宣布了一系列高得难以想象的关税，但后来宣布暂停征收，希望能与世界各国达成贸易协议。在90天的暂停期里，大多数经济学家警告称，如果征收那么高的关税，将给经济带来严重损害。随着特朗普本周在关税做法上变本加厉，他们再次发出了同样的警告。

“It’s inevitable that whatever is in place at the end of the day is going to get passed along; it’s just a matter of when,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the president of the conservative American Action Forum.

“无论关税最终有多高，征收的后果都将不可避免地逐级转嫁；这只是个时间问题，”保守派组织美国行动论坛的主席道格拉斯·霍尔茨-埃金说。

On Monday, the Budget Lab at Yale, a nonpartisan research center, estimated that the president’s duties — including those to come next month — would cause households to lose $2,300 on average in income this year.

据耶鲁大学的无党派研究中心预算实验室周一发布的估计，特朗普的关税——包括下月即将实施的关税——将导致美国家庭今年的平均收入减少2300美元。

But the White House has long rejected similar projections and produced estimates of its own. It found on Tuesday that the price of imported goods had fallen faster than overall goods prices since February. Mr. Trump’s top aides said it showed that the president’s tariffs were not leading to “an acceleration of inflation,” though economists later questioned elements of the report.

但白宫一直拒绝接受类似的预测，并已给出自己的估计。白宫周二发报告称，自今年2月份以来，进口商品价格下降的速度比整体商品价格下降的速度快。特朗普的高级助手们说，这表明总统的关税没有导致“通胀加速”，尽管经济学家们后来对报告的部分内容提出了质疑。

在日本横滨港等待装运的汽车。特朗普本周宣布的最新一轮关税威胁针对的国家包括日本。

“There’s no sustained pattern of a tariff-driven price pressure anywhere,” Stephen Miran, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said on CNBC.

“没有看到任何关税给价格带来压力的持续模式，”白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰在CNBC上说。

The vast uncertainty, particularly around tariffs, has frozen the Federal Reserve, which has left borrowing costs untouched for months as it waits to see the fuller effects of Mr. Trump’s policies. That has provided the president with a convenient “fall guy” in Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, whom Mr. Trump has branded “Mr. Too Late” for not lowering borrowing costs as he has demanded.

巨大的不确定性，尤其是关税方面的不确定性，导致美联储陷入观望状态。美联储几个月来一直让借贷成本保持不变，因为它在等待特朗普政策的更全面影响。这给特朗普提供了一个方便的“替罪羊”——美联储主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔。因为鲍威尔没有按照特朗普的要求降低借贷成本，特朗普给他起了“太迟先生”的外号。

“If you end up with things like tariffs pushing up inflation and pushing down growth in the short term, then it can almost suit you as president to blame bad economic data on an ‘incompetent’ Fed chair,” said Mark Dowding, the chief investment officer for fixed income at RBC BlueBay Asset Management.

“如果最终出现诸如关税推高通胀并在短期内抑制经济增长的情况，作为总统，他几乎总有把糟糕的经济数据归咎于‘无能’的美联储主席的方便借口，”加拿大皇家银行蓝湾资产管理公司的固定收益首席投资官马克·道丁说。