2025年4月25日
For a president who advertises himself as a paramount deal maker, the next 11 weeks will be a pivotal test, as his advisers race to accomplish what no other administration has done before and reach dozens of individual trade deals with other governments.
对于一位标榜自己是一流交易专家的总统来说,未来11周将是一个关键考验,因为他的顾问们要争分夺秒完成没有哪一届政府做到过的事情,与其他政府分别达成数十项贸易协议。
President Trump has promised big gains for American trade, and officials from Japan, South Korea, India and elsewhere have been pushing for agreements as they look to forestall punishing tariffs. But trade experts say the administration has set up a seemingly impossible task, given that traditional trade deals typically take months or years to negotiate.
特朗普总统承诺让美国的贸易获得巨大收益,日本、韩国、印度和其他国家的官员一直在推动达成协议,以避免惩罚性关税。但贸易专家表示,鉴于传统的贸易协议通常需要数月或数年的谈判时间,特朗普政府设定了一项看似不可能完成的任务。
Mr. Trump has tried to use tariffs as leverage to notch quick agreements, and his trade adviser, Peter Navarro, has promised “90 deals in 90 days.” But the levies are creating chaos and financial pain for many businesses, and they have not brought some of America’s largest trading partners, including China, to the table.
特朗普试图利用关税作为筹码,迅速达成协议,他的贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗承诺“90天内达成90项协议”。但这些关税给许多企业带来了混乱和财务上的痛苦,却依然没有让包括中国在内的一些美国最大的贸易伙伴坐到谈判桌前。
Some U.S. trade with China has ground to a halt after the countries imposed triple-digit tariffs on each others’ products, and a wave of bankruptcies, especially among small U.S. businesses that rely on Chinese imports, appears to be looming if the trade barriers are maintained.
在两国对彼此的产品征收三位数的关税后,美国与中国的一些贸易已经陷入停顿,如果贸易壁垒继续存在,一波破产浪潮似乎即将来临,尤其是依赖中国进口的美国小企业。
Some Trump officials recognize that the situation with China is not sustainable and have been strategizing how to reduce the tariffs between the countries, two people familiar with the discussions said. Another person familiar with the discussions said administration officials were concerned about the hit to the stock market, which has experienced intense volatility and some of its worst trading days in years. The S&P 500 is down 10 percent since Mr. Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration.
两位知情人士说,特朗普的一些官员认识到,与中国的情况是不可持续的,他们一直在研究如何降低两国之间关税的战略。另一位知情人士说,政府官员担心此举对股市的打击。股市经历了剧烈波动,出现了数年来最糟糕的几个交易日。自特朗普1月20日就职以来,标准普尔500指数下跌了10%。
Speaking from the Oval Office on Wednesday, Mr. Trump said he wanted to make a deal with China. But he said what happens with his tariffs on China “depends on them.” He denied any concerns about what the tariffs are doing to small businesses, but said that the high tariff “basically means China isn’t doing any business with us.”
周三,特朗普在椭圆形办公室发表讲话时称他希望与中国达成协议。但他表示,他的关税的去留“取决于他们”。他否认担心关税会对小企业造成什么影响,但表示高关税“基本上意味着中国不和我们做任何生意”。
He also claimed the United States had spoken with 90 countries, all of which wanted to do deals. “Too many to fully deal with, but we’re going to be fair to them,” he said.
他还声称,美国已经与90个国家进行了交谈,所有这些国家都希望达成协议。“太多了,没法全顾到,但我们会公平对待他们,”他说。
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump signaled that the 145 percent tariff he put on Chinese imports could drop. “It won’t be anywhere near that high,” he said. “It’ll come down substantially. But it won’t be zero.”
周二,特朗普表示,他对中国进口商品征收的145%的关税可能会降低。“不会有那么高了,”他说。“会大幅下降。但不会是零。”
So far, officials from the United States and China do not appear to have engaged in substantive talks over the trade spat. Trump officials believe the Chinese economy is vulnerable, given its dependence on exports to the United States.
到目前为止,美国和中国的官员似乎还没有就这场贸易争端进行实质性的谈判。特朗普政府官员认为,鉴于中国对美国出口的依赖,中国经济很脆弱。
“President Trump has been clear: China needs to make a deal with the United States of America,” said Kush Desai, a White House spokesman.
“特朗普总统说的很清楚了:是中国需要与美利坚合众国达成协议,”白宫发言人库什·德赛说。
Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, on Wednesday dismissed speculation that the president was considering unilaterally lowering the tariffs that he had imposed on China ahead of any negotiations with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader. He emphasized that any moves to de-escalate trade tensions would need to be mutual.
财政部长贝森特周三驳斥了有关总统考虑在与中国领导人习近平谈判之前单方面降低对华关税的猜测。他强调说,任何缓和贸易紧张局势的举动都必须是相互的。
“I don’t think either side believes that the current tariff levels are sustainable,” Mr. Bessent told reporters. “This is the equivalent of an embargo, and a break between the two countries on trade does not suit anyone’s interest.”
“我认为双方都不认为目前的关税水平是可持续的,”贝森特对记者说。“这相当于禁运,两国贸易中断不符合任何一方的利益。”
On Wednesday, Guo Jiakun, the spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, reiterated that China would not be bullied by U.S. tariff threats.
周三,中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆重申,中国不会被美国的关税威胁霸凌。
“If the U.S. truly wants to resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop threatening and coercing, and engage in dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit,” he said. “Talking about reaching an agreement with China while constantly pressuring China to the maximum is not the correct way to deal with China and will not work.”
“如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题,就应该停止威胁讹诈,在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议,一边不断搞极限施压,这不是同中方打交道的正确方式,也是行不通的,”他说。
Mr. Trump’s tariff threats have created urgency for other governments, motivating them to begin talks with the United States about removing tariffs and other trade barriers. On April 9, just hours after the president imposed stiff tariffs on nearly 60 countries, he paused them for 90 days, saying he would give governments a chance to negotiate trade deals instead.
特朗普的关税威胁给其他政府带来了紧迫感,促使它们开始与美国就取消关税和其他贸易壁垒进行谈判。4月9日,就在宣布对近60个国家征收高额关税几个小时后,他暂停了90天的关税,称他将给各国政府一个洽谈贸易协议的机会。
This week, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said that the Trump administration had received 18 proposals on paper and that the trade team was “meeting with 34 countries this week alone.”
本周,白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特表示,特朗普政府收到了18份书面提案,贸易团队“仅在本周就与34个国家会谈”。
But negotiating so many deals at the same time poses significant challenges. Many of Mr. Trump’s departments are still understaffed, with midlevel officials not yet confirmed. Torsten Slok, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, an investment firm, wrote online that on average, trade deals signed by the United States had taken 18 months to negotiate and 45 months to implement.
但是同时谈这么多的交易带来了巨大的挑战。特朗普的许多部门仍然人手不足,中层官员的职位尚未得到确认。投资公司阿波罗全球管理公司的首席经济学家托斯滕·斯洛克在网上写道,美国签署的贸易协议平均需要18个月的谈判时间和45个月的实施时间。
“While markets wait for trade negotiations with 90 countries at the same time,” he wrote, “global trade is grinding to a standstill with problems similar to what we saw during Covid: growing supply chain challenges with potential shortages in U.S. stores within a few weeks, higher U.S. inflation and lower tourism to the U.S.”
“当市场同时等待与90个国家的贸易谈判时,全球贸易正陷入停滞,问题与我们在新冠期间看到的类似:供应链挑战日益加剧,美国商店可能在几周内出现短缺,美国的通货膨胀率上升,赴美旅游减少,”他写道。
South Korean finance and trade ministers were set to meet with Mr. Bessent and Jamieson Greer, the United States trade representative, on Thursday. Officials from Thailand, Japan, India and other countries were also scheduled to hold talks in Washington this week.
韩国财政和贸易部长定于周四与贝森特和美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔会面。来自泰国、日本、印度和其他国家的官员也计划本周在华盛顿举行会谈。
In a visit to New Delhi on Tuesday, Vice President JD Vance announced the outlines for a potential trade agreement with India, which would ramp up trade between the countries, reduce Indian barriers to U.S. exports and fold in discussions of defense, energy and strategic technologies.
在周二访问新德里时,副总统JD·万斯宣布了与印度的潜在贸易协议的大纲,该协议将增加两国之间的贸易,减少印度对美国出口的壁垒,并加入国防、能源和战略技术方面的讨论。
While the Trump administration has said some deals could be concluded quickly, initial meetings have suggested that talks could be more complicated, particularly with major trading partners like Japan.
尽管特朗普政府表示,一些协议可能会很快达成,但初步会议表明,谈判可能没那么简单,尤其是与日本等主要贸易伙伴的谈判。
The two nations have trade disputes extending back decades over industries like steel and auto parts. And some agreements under discussion — for example, a project that could see Japan, South Korea and Taiwan invest in a pipeline to export liquefied natural gas from Alaska — could take at least five years to come to fruition.
日美两国在钢铁和汽车零部件等行业的贸易争端可以追溯到几十年前。一些正在讨论的协议——例如,日本、韩国和台湾可能投资一条从阿拉斯加出口液化天然气的管道——可能需要至少五年才能取得成果。
“Tokyo wants to preserve the alliance and keep peace with Trump, but without surrendering Japan’s interests,” Daniel Russel, the vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, wrote in a recent analysis. “The Japanese government is willing to increase investments in the U.S. and buy more American goods, but will resist being rushed and pressured into lopsided deals.”
“东京希望维持与特朗普的同盟关系,维持和平,但又不想放弃日本的利益,”亚洲协会政策研究所副所长丹尼尔·拉塞尔在最近的分析报告中写道。“日本政府愿意增加在美国的投资,购买更多的美国商品,但不会在匆忙和压力下达成不平衡的交易。”
South Korean officials also appear willing to discuss trade imbalances, as well as buying more natural gas and investing to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding industry. But it is not clear the Korean government is in a position to aggressively negotiate a deal, given that the country’s president has been impeached and an election will not be held until June 3.
韩国官员似乎也愿意讨论贸易不平衡问题,以及购买更多天然气和投资重振美国造船业。但考虑到韩国总统已被弹劾,大选要到6月3日才会举行,目前尚不清楚韩国政府是否有能力积极谈判达成协议。
Speaking from Washington on Wednesday, Britain’s chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, also said there was no plan to rush into a trade deal with the United States.
英国财政大臣瑞切尔·里夫斯周三在华盛顿发表讲话时也表示,英国没有急于与美国达成贸易协议的计划。
副总统JD·万斯周一在新德里会见了印度总理莫迪。
Ms. Reeves, who was set to meet with Mr. Bessent, said she wanted to reduce trade barriers between Britain and other countries, but there were firm lines her government would not cross, like changing food or car safety standards.
里夫斯将与贝森特会面。她说,她希望减少英国与其他国家之间的贸易壁垒,但她的政府也有一些不可逾越的底线,比如改变食品或汽车安全标准。
With larger trading partners, like the European Union, discussions appear more difficult. European officials have expressed frustration about a lack of clear goals from the Trump administration.
与欧盟等较大的贸易伙伴谈判似乎更加困难。欧洲官员对特朗普政府缺乏明确目标表示失望。
“One would wish for more clarity on expectations,” Valdis Dombrovskis, the European commissioner responsible for the economy, said on Wednesday at the Semafor World Economy Summit. He said that European officials had put forward “concrete proposals,” such as buying more liquefied natural gas and zero-for-zero tariffs on industrial goods, but that the United States needed to provide more clarity on what it wanted.
“人们希望能有更明确的预期,”负责经济事务的欧盟专员瓦尔季斯·东布罗夫斯基斯周三在塞马福世界经济峰会上表示。他说,欧洲官员已经提出了“具体建议”,比如购买更多的液化天然气,工业品实现零对零关税,但美国需要更明确地说明它想要什么。
“We are trying to find a solution and a way forward,” he said. “But we have also indicated in absence of solution we are also ready to defend our companies.”
“我们正在努力寻找解决办法和前进的道路,”他说。“但我们也表示,在没有解决方案的情况下,我们也准备捍卫我们的公司。”