They are the new class of cold warriors, guns pointed at China.

他们是枪口对准中国的新一班冷战斗士。

President-elect Donald J. Trump has chosen cabinet secretaries and a national security adviser who stress the need to confront China across the entire security and economic spectrum: military posture, trade, technology, espionage, human rights and Taiwan.

这些被候任总统特朗普选择为内阁部长和国家安全顾问的人强调称，有必要在所有安全和经济领域与中国对抗，包括军事立场、贸易、技术、间谍活动、人权以及台湾问题等方面。

Those choices could open a new era of conflict with a nuclear-armed nation that has the world’s largest standing army and second largest economy, and where many top officials see the United States as a superpower in decline.

这些选择可能开启一个冲突的新时代，对手是一个拥有核武的国家，有着世界上最大的常备军，是世界第二大经济体，它的许多高级官员认为美国是一个正在衰落的超级大国。

Mr. Trump’s hawkish advisers so far include Marco Rubio, a Florida senator named as secretary of state; Michael Waltz, a Florida congressman tapped for national security adviser; and Pete Hegseth, a former Fox News television personality designated to be defense secretary. Cabinet secretaries must be confirmed by the Senate, although Mr. Trump has floated the idea of getting around that by using recess appointments.

到目前为止，特朗普的鹰派顾问们包括佛罗里达州的联邦参议员马可·卢比奥，他是下任国务卿人选；佛罗里达州的联邦众议员迈克·沃尔兹，他是下任国家安全顾问人选；曾为福克斯新闻工作的电视名人皮特·海格塞斯，他是下任国防部长人选。虽然内阁部长需要得到参议院的批准，但特朗普已提出了用在国会休会期进行任命的办法来绕过批准问题的想法。

Those men are more explicitly hostile to China than their counterparts in the Biden administration, though President Biden has taken an aggressive tack with China and continued some of the policies from Mr. Trump’s first term. A consensus has solidified among Democrats and Republicans in Washington that China must be constrained because it is the nation most capable of upending American global dominance.

这些人比拜登的内阁官员更明确地对抗中国，虽然拜登总统已在对华政策上采取了强硬立场，延续了特朗普第一个任期的一些政策。一种共识已在美国政府里的民主党人和共和党人中变得明确，即必须遏制中国，因为它是最有能力颠覆美国全球主导地位的国家。

Yet there are signs that Mr. Trump might consider a more moderate approach on trade, perhaps to avoid upsetting a roaring stock market nurtured by Mr. Biden.

但也有迹象表明，特朗普可能会考虑在贸易问题上采取更温和的态度，这也许是为了避免扰乱在拜登执政期间非常成功的股票市场。

特朗普曾于2017年11月在北京与中国国家主席习近平举行会晤。那年早些时候，他在马阿拉歌庄园欢迎习近平到访，但他们刚开始建立的关系最终因特朗普发动贸易战而破裂。

Mr. Trump announced Tuesday that he planned to appoint Howard Lutnick, chief executive of Cantor Fitzgerald, as commerce secretary and overseer of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, where he will “lead our tariff and trade agenda.” Mr. Lutnick has said he supports more targeted tariffs rather than the universal ones that Mr. Trump and some of his hard-line advisers have mentioned during the campaign. And Mr. Lutnick has asserted that Mr. Trump “wants to make a deal with China.”

特朗普本周二宣布，他打算把建达公司的首席执行官霍华德·卢特尼克任命为商务部长和美国贸易代表办公室的负责人，并表示他将在该办公室“领导我们的关税和贸易议程”。卢特尼克已表示，他支持更有针对性的关税，而不是特朗普和他的一些强硬派顾问们在竞选期间提出的普遍关税。卢特尼克还声称，特朗普“想与中国做交易”。

Mr. Lutnick told CNBC in September that tariffs are a bargaining tool and should only be imposed on foreign goods that compete with what is made in the United States.

卢特尼克曾在今年9月对CNBC表示，关税是一种谈判工具，只应用在与美国制造的产品有竞争的外国产品上。

Mr. Trump’s national security appointees typically use much stronger language. They also eschew the rhetoric of Mr. Biden’s aides, who speak of working with China on a few global issues and maintaining stable ties.

特朗普提名的国家安全官员们通常使用更强硬的语言。他们也避免使用拜登助手们的说法，后者称要在几个全球性的问题上与中国合作，并保持稳定的关系。

“I feel strongly that the Chinese Communist Party has entered into a Cold War with the United States and is explicit in its aim to replace the liberal, Western-led world order that has been in place since World War II,” Mr. Waltz said last year at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council, a research group.

“我的坚定看法是，中国共产党已进入了与美国的冷战，它的明确目标是取代自由主义的、西方主导的世界秩序，一种自第二次世界大战以来一直存在的秩序，”沃尔兹去年在研究团体大西洋理事会主办的一次活动上说。

“We’re in a global arms race with an adversary that, unlike any in American history, has the economic and the military capability to truly supplant and replace us,” he added.

“我们正在与一个对手展开一场全球军备竞赛，这个对手与美国历史上的任何对手都不同，它拥有真的替代和取代我们的经济和军事能力，”他还说。

Those aides could find themselves contending with counterweights in the administration, including Mr. Lutnick and other colleagues who may not want to smash commercial ties to China.

这些鹰派助手们可能会发现自己与特朗普政府中的抗衡力量有冲突，后者包括卢特尼克和其他也许不想颠覆对华商业关系的同仁们。

特朗普下届政府的商务部长人选霍华德·卢特尼克与埃隆·马斯克在一起。与特朗普顾问中的强硬派人士相比，卢特尼克支持更有针对性的关税；马斯克在中国有重要的商业利益。

That also includes their boss. When it comes to China, Mr. Trump is more transactional than ideological, willing to threaten or impose punishing tariffs to try to land deals that he says will benefit the United States. He has rarely expressed support for human rights and talks of autocrats, including Xi Jinping, China’s leader, in glowing terms. And current close advisers of his, notably Elon Musk, the tycoon who owns Tesla, have important business interests in China.

这还包括他们的老板。特朗普谈到中国时更注重交易而不是意识形态，他会威胁或征收惩罚性的关税，目的是试图达成他称之为对美国有利的交易。他很少表达对人权的支持，而且用热情洋溢地语言谈论包括中国领导人习近平在内的独裁者。他目前的亲密顾问，尤其是拥有特斯拉的大亨埃隆·马斯克，在中国拥有重要的商业利益。

As Mr. Trump prepares to take office, this mix of incentives and ideas is creating significant uncertainty about the direction of one of the world’s most consequential relationships.

随着特朗普准备再次担任总统，对于世界上最重要的双边关系之一将走向何方，这种激励贸易与对抗想法的混合正在带来巨大的不确定性。

China is rapidly building up its military. It makes contentious territorial claims to the entirety of the South China Sea, in which the navies of the United States and Southeast Asian nations operate, and seeks to bring the democratic island of Taiwan under its control. It is giving commercial aid to Russia during its war on Ukraine. It is quickly building out its technological capacity. It has threatened to clamp down on exports of strategic goods, including certain critical minerals.

中国正在迅速提升军事实力。它对整个南中国海提出了有争议的领土主张，美国和东南亚国家的海军都在该水域活动，还试图将民主自治的台湾纳入自己的控制之下。它在俄乌战争中向俄罗斯提供商业援助，并正在迅速建设本国的技术能力，威胁要限制战略物资的出口，包括某些关键矿产品。

But the country remains one of America’s top trading partners and an essential supplier and customer for many U.S. businesses. Mr. Biden also says China is a necessary partner on critical global issues, including climate change, infectious diseases, narcotics, nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence.

但中国仍是美国最大的贸易伙伴之一，也是许多美国企业的重要供应商和客户。拜登也表示，中国在一些关键的全球问题上是必不可少的合作伙伴，包括气候变化、传染病、毒品、核武器以及人工智能等。

In the first Trump administration, there was a sharp divergence on China policy among rival aides who sometimes argued in front of him. The main cleavage was between national security and some economic aides who aimed to aggressively confront and contain China, and advisers from the business world who wanted to maintain and even bolster certain commercial ties.

在特朗普第一次当政期间，他的助手们在对华政策上存在严重分歧，有时甚至当着他的面争论。主要的分歧存在于国家安全顾问和旨在积极对抗、遏制中国的经济助手们与来自商界的顾问之间，后者希望维持甚至加强某些与中国的商业联系。

中国海军陆战队在珠海演习，摄于本月。中国拥有世界上最大的常备军，对整个南中国海以及台湾提出了有争议的领土主张，

Mr. Rubio and Mr. Waltz, as well as Robert Lighthizer and Peter Navarro, two former trade aides who could enter this administration, embrace the idea of decoupling: They believe the United States is better off drastically cutting commerce and other ties with China. They criticize the more surgical approach — de-risking — advocated by Mr. Biden and some European leaders. That approach seeks to maintain broad commercial relations with China while cutting back specific trade that officials say threatens national security — notably the sale to Chinese companies of advanced semiconductor chips.

卢比奥和沃尔兹，以及可能进入本届政府的两名前贸易助理罗伯特·莱特希泽和彼得·纳瓦罗支持脱钩的想法：他们认为，美国大幅减少与中国的贸易和其他联系对美国有利。他们批评拜登和一些欧洲领导人提倡的更精准做法，即所谓的“去风险”。这种做法寻求与中国保持广泛的商业关系，同时切断被官员们认为对国家安全构成威胁的具体贸易，主要是向中国公司出售先进的半导体芯片。

Mr. Trump’s national security aides will likely push for a rapid U.S. military buildup in the Asia-Pacific region, with an eye toward a potential war over Taiwan. However, the aides have also talked of confronting Iran, which would divert military resources from Asia.

特朗普的国家安全助理们很可能会推动美国尽快在亚太地区增强军事实力，着眼于可能发生的台湾战争。但这些助理们也提出了对抗伊朗的问题，这会转移美国在亚洲的资源。

Other potential appointees, notably Elbridge A. Colby, a former Pentagon official, stress the need to husband those resources in Asia to try to deter China.

其他可能在下届特朗普政府任职的人、尤其是担任过国防部官员的埃尔布里奇·科尔比则强调，为了试图遏制中国，美国需节俭使用其亚洲资源。

It is also unclear whether Mr. Trump’s top aides would support the reinforcement of military alliances in Asia that Mr. Biden undertook, since Mr. Trump has asserted that allies — including Taiwan, Japan and South Korea — take advantage of the United States.

目前还不清楚特朗普的高级助手们是否会支持拜登政府加强在亚洲军事联盟的做法，因为特朗普曾经声称，包括台湾、日本和韩国在内的盟友都在占美国的便宜。

Mr. Trump has talked tough on trade with China. He could support a push by some Republican lawmakers, including Mr. Rubio, to revoke China’s “most favored nation” trading status with the United States, which would result in higher tariffs on the country’s goods. Even outside of that, Mr. Trump says he wants to impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese imports.

特朗普在对华贸易问题上言辞强硬。他可能会支持取消中国的“最惠国待遇”，包括卢比奥在内的一些共和党议员们已在推动有关立法​​，这将导致对中国商品征收更高的关税。即使不取消，特朗普已表示，他要对从中国进口的产品征收最高60%的关税。

In his first term, Mr. Trump slapped tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of products from the country. Mr. Biden kept those tariffs.

特朗普曾在第一个任期间对来自中国的价值数千亿美元的产品征收了关税。拜登保留了这些关税。

宁波舟山港是世界上最繁忙的港口之一。特朗普已表示，他要对中国进口产品征收最高60%的关税。

But Mr. Trump also has a history of vacillating on trade policy. At the request of Mr. Xi, he lifted sanctions on ZTE, a Chinese technology firm, and created exceptions for some sales to continue to Huawei, in an effort to reach a trade deal with the country. Both are companies that his former national security advisers considered threats, and Mr. Rubio, the senator, criticized Mr. Trump’s leniency on ZTE at the time.

但特朗普在贸易政策上也有摇摆不定的历史。在习近平的要求下，特朗普解除了对中国科技公司中兴通讯的制裁。他为了与中国达成贸易协议，为允许某些产品继续销售给华为制造了例外。这两家公司都是被特朗普的前国家安全顾问视为威胁，联邦参议员卢比奥当时曾批评特朗普对中兴通讯采取的宽容做法。

More recently, Mr. Trump has reversed his position on TikTok, the popular Chinese-owned social media app, about which there are also national security concerns. After trying to ban TikTok from the United States in 2020, Mr. Trump has recently promised to rescue it. That has raised questions about the influence of a billionaire conservative megadonor, Jeff Yass, who is invested in ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok.

更近的例子还有，特朗普改变了他在TikTok问题上的立场，中国人拥有的流行社交媒体应用程序TikTok也存在国家安全担忧。特朗普2020年曾试图禁止在美国使用TikTok，但最近却承诺要救其一命。这已引发人们质疑保守派巨额捐款人、亿万富翁杰夫·亚斯对此事的影响，他对TikTok的母公司字节跳动有投资。

A large part of how Mr. Trump himself will handle China could depend on Mr. Xi. Like some other leaders, Mr. Xi could turn to flattery and try to engage Mr. Trump in personalized diplomacy. Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, did this in the first Trump administration, to the delight of Mr. Trump.

特朗普本人将如何对待中国在很大程度上可能取决于习近平。后者可能像某些其他国家的领导人一样转向奉承，试图与特朗普进行个人层面的外交。朝鲜领导人金正恩曾在特朗普第一次执政期间这样做，令特朗普大为高兴。

As president, Mr. Trump welcomed Mr. Xi to Mar-a-Lago in 2017, only to have their budding relationship fall apart over a trade war that Mr. Trump started.

时任总统的特朗普2017年曾在马阿拉歌庄园欢迎习近平的到访，但他们刚开始发展的关系因特朗普发起贸易战而破裂。

In a meeting on Sunday with Mr. Biden in Peru, Mr. Xi stressed four “red lines” for China in relations with the United States: Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China’s path and system, and China’s right to development, according to Xinhua, China’s state news agency. The message appeared aimed as much at Mr. Trump and his new team as at the Biden administration.

习近平上周日在秘鲁与拜登举行了会晤，据中国国家通讯社新华社报道，习近平强调了中国在中美关系问题上不容挑战的四条“红线”：台湾问题、民主人权、道路制度、发展权利”。他的这个信息似乎既是给拜登政府的，也是给特朗普及其新团队的。

The leading China policy hand among the current appointees is Mr. Rubio, a Cuban American critic of Communist governments. He made China a focus of his legislative efforts over his nearly 14 years as a U.S. senator. None of Mr. Trump’s designated aides have spent as much time as Mr. Rubio examining the many dimensions of U.S.-China competition and trying to enact policy through legislation, across Republican and Democratic administrations.

特朗普任命的下届政府官员中最主要的对华政策官员是现任参议员卢比奥，他是古巴裔美国人，喜欢批评共产党领导的政府。在担任联邦参议员的近14年里，他把中国作为立法工作的重点。在特朗普命名的助手中，没有一个人在审查美中竞争的诸多方面像卢比奥那样花了那么多时间，也没有一个人像他那样不论是在共和党还是在民主党执政期间，都试图通过立法把对华政策付诸实践。

Mr. Rubio has sponsored bills that have touched on many aspects of U.S.-China relations, from human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong to U.S. stock market listings by Chinese companies and the “wealth and corrupt activities” of Chinese leaders.

卢比奥发起的法案已涉及美中关系的许多方面，从新疆和香港的侵犯人权，到中国公司在美国上市，再到中国领导人的“财富和腐败行为”。

In September, Mr. Rubio released a report called “The World China Made” that took a detailed look at China’s efforts to dominate 10 strategic industries. He wrote that his aim was to issue a “wake-up call about how serious the threat we face has become. No longer can we fall back on old dogmas and stale talking points.”

今年9月，卢比奥公布了一份报告，题目是《中国造就的世界》(The World China Made)，详细描述了中国主导十大战略产业的努力。他写道，公布报告的目标是“敲响警钟，让我们认识到我们面临的威胁已变得多么严重。我们不能再靠旧的教条和陈腐的讲话要点了”。

On the economic front, Mr. Trump is still weighing his Treasury secretary pick. That person would work alongside Mr. Lutnick, playing a key role in economic talks with China.

在经济方面，特朗普仍在权衡他的财政部长人选。此人将与卢特尼克一起工作，在与中国的经济谈判中起关键作用。

Mr. Lighthizer, who led Mr. Trump’s earlier trade talks with China, could get a senior role, though perhaps not in the cabinet. Mr. Navarro, the author of “Death by China” and “The Coming China Wars,” could also get a position. He visited Mr. Trump at Mar-a-Lago this month, after having served four months in prison this year for defying a congressional subpoena related to a House investigation into the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

莱特希泽曾领导特朗普与中国的早期贸易谈判，他可能在下届政府中得到一个高级职位，尽管可能不是内阁成员。写过《致命中国》和《即将到来的中国战争》这两本书的纳瓦罗也可能得到一个职位。纳瓦罗本月曾去马阿拉歌庄园见了特朗普，今年早些时候，他曾因蔑视国会传票被关了四个月的监狱，该传票与众议院对2021年1月6日袭击国会大厦事件的调查有关。

The Chinese government has not made official statements on Mr. Trump’s appointees. Tang Shiping, a political scientist at Fudan University in Shanghai, wrote online that Mr. Rubio’s appointment in itself “is difficult enough for China to deal with.”

中国政府尚未对特朗普的任命发表官方声明。上海复旦大学研究政治的学者唐世平在网上写道，任命卢比奥这件事本身“就足够让中国难以对付”。

The selections have also resonated in Taiwan, where the ruling Democratic Progressive Party denounces China’s efforts to bring the island under its control.

特朗普的选择已在台湾引起了共鸣，台湾执政的民进党指责中国试图控制台湾。

Vincent Chao, a politician in Taipei who was President Lai Ching-te’s spokesman during his election campaign earlier this year, said that Mr. Trump’s choices would give allies in the Pacific region confidence that America would continue to stand by them “in terms of supporting their ability to resist coercion and intimidation” by the China.

台北政治人士赵怡翔曾在今年早些时候为赖清德的总统竞选活动担任发言人。他表示，特朗普的官员人选让太平洋地区的盟友们有信心认为，“从支持他们抵抗中国的胁迫和恐吓的能力来看”，美国会继续与他们站在一起。