President Trump fueled new speculation this week about a meeting with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, when he told reporters that Washington needed to be cleaned up to prepare for a summit between the two leaders in the “not too distant future.”

本周，特朗普总统对记者表示，为了给“不久的将来”美中领导人峰会做准备，需要把华盛顿打扫干净。这个说法引发了人们对他将与中国最高领导人习近平举行会晤的新一轮猜测。

Mr. Trump provided no details, and China has said nothing publicly about any such meeting. The stakes of a visit would be high: President Trump has imposed 20 percent tariffs on China’s shipments to the United States, and may order another round next month. China wants to try to head off further escalations in the trade war that would set back its efforts to revive the country’s beleaguered economy, experts say.

特朗普没有谈及详情，中国也未对任何此类会晤有过公开的说法。习近平的到访将事关重大：特朗普已对中国出口美国的商品加征了20%的关税，并可能在下个月下令加征新一轮关税。专家表示，中国想阻止贸易战进一步升级，因为贸易战会阻碍中国恢复陷入困境的经济的努力。

But before any summit can take place, China still needs answers to two pressing questions: What does Mr. Trump want? Who can Beijing talk to in Washington who Mr. Trump might listen to?

但在任何峰会举行之前，中国仍需要为两个紧迫问题找到答案：特朗普想要什么？中国政府能与美国政府中的什么人谈，才有可能让特朗普听到他们想传递的信息？

To try to answer these questions, China sent scholars to the United States to take part in unofficial diplomatic talks last month with Trump administration officials and American foreign policy experts. China has grown concerned that the officials Beijing have been dealing with at the State Department and the National Security Council, who are outside Mr. Trump’s inner circle, are not conveying their messages to him, some of the scholars said.

为给这些问题找到答案，中国上个月派学者前往美国，与特朗普政府的官员以及美国外交政策专家举行非正式的外交会谈。一些学者说，中国政府越来越担心，他们一直以来与之打交道的美国国务院和国家安全委员会官员并没有把信息传达给特朗普，因为这些人不属于特朗普的核心圈子。

“We talk through the diplomatic channel. That’s the normal channel. But can that reach President Trump? Do those people we talked to really know what President Trump is thinking?” said Da Wei, the director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, who was among the scholars.

“我们通过外交渠道交流。那是正常的渠道。但能把信息传达到特朗普总统那里吗？我们与之交谈的那些人真的知道特朗普总统在想什么吗？”清华大学战略与安全研究中心主任达巍说，他是参加了相关会谈的学者之一。

China has also been publicly signaling its interest in talks. The Chinese commerce minister said earlier this month that he wrote a letter to the U.S. commerce secretary and U.S. trade representative inviting them to meet. And Chinese officials describing Beijing’s efforts to curtail the production of fentanyl last week urged the United States to return to dialogue.

中国也一直公开表示有意进行对话。中国商务部长曾在本月早些时候表示，他已致信美国商务部长和美国贸易代表，邀请他们举行会晤。中国官员上周介绍了政府为遏制芬太尼生产所做的努力，并呼吁美国恢复有关的对话。

Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi held a phone call days before Mr. Tump’s inauguration in January, but high-level communication between China and the United States has been limited ever since. China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke in late January, and Vice Premier He Lifeng talked to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent late last month.

特朗普和习近平曾在今年1月特朗普就职前几天通了电话，但之后的高层交流一直有限。中国最高外交官王毅和美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥曾在1月底通过电话，中国副总理何立峰上个月底曾与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特通了电话。

中国外交部长王毅本月早些时候在北京的一个记者招待会上发言。

Beijing wants to know what Mr. Trump wants from China in a potential trade deal as well as how he might respond to China’s wish list. China likely wants Mr. Trump to lift the tariffs; loosen restrictions on U.S. technology exports and Chinese investment in the United States; and offer assurances that he will not provoke Beijing over Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by China.

中国政府想知道，特朗普希望从与中国可能达成的贸易协议中得到什么，也想知道他会对中国的愿望清单作出何种反应。中国可能想让特朗普取消关税；放松美国对华技术出口以及对中国在美投资的限制；并做出担保，不会在台湾问题上激怒北京——中国声称对自治的台湾拥有主权。

At the same time, China has been trying to hold firm against the Trump administration. Beijing responded to the tariffs with counter measures like levies on U.S. agricultural imports that are calibrated to exact some pain, but also leave the door open for future trade negotiations. A Chinese official said Beijing would “fight to the end” in a “tariff war, trade war or any other war” with the United States.

与此同时，中国一直试图不在特朗普政府面前让步。中国政府已对特朗普的关税采取了反制措施，例如对美国农产品进口加征关税，这样做的目的是给美国造成一定程度的伤害，但也为未来的贸易谈判留有余地。一名中国官员表示，无论美国想打“关税战、贸易战或任何其他类型的战争，我们都准备好战斗到底”。

But China also thinks a high-level meeting needs to take place before Mr. Trump has an opportunity to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods, analysts said. Such a move would raise tensions between the two sides to the point where Mr. Xi would look weak for agreeing to come to the table.

但中国也认为，在特朗普有机会对中国商品征收更多关税之前，有必要举行一次高层会晤，分析人士说。更多关税将让双方的紧张关系加剧到这样一种程度——届时如果习近平同意坐到谈判桌前的话，会显得他很软弱。

“The challenge is, can we move quickly enough before the window of opportunity is closed?” Mr. Da said. “When you see these negative signals sent out without any positive agenda to offset them,” he continued, then “bilateral relations could sour.”

“挑战在于，我们能否在机会窗口关闭之前采取足够迅速的行动？”达巍说。“当大家看到不断有负面信号发出，但没有任何积极议程来抵消它们时，”他继续说道，“双边关系就有可能恶化。”

China may see the lack of urgency from the U.S. side for high-level talks as reflecting an effort by Mr. Rubio and Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, Michael Waltz, to stonewall China. (Both are considered hawks on China.)

中国也许认为，美国方面缺乏举行高层会谈的紧迫感，鲁比奥和特朗普的国家安全顾问迈克尔·沃尔兹有意阻碍与中国的沟通交流就反映了这一点（两人都被视为对华鹰派人物）。

“Rubio is not in the mood to do anything” in terms of talks because he considers China a threat, said Wang Dong, executive director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University.

北京大学全球健康发展研究院教授王栋说，就与中国进行谈判而言，“鲁比奥根本不想采取任何行动”，因为他把中国看作一个威胁。

美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥和国家安全顾问迈克·沃尔兹今年3月在沙特阿拉的伯吉达。外界认为这两名官员都是对华鹰派。

The next month will be critical for U.S.-China relations, analysts say. Mr. Trump may impose a third round of tariffs on Chinese goods unless there are serious talks between senior officials, said Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, who also attended back channel talks in the United States last month.

分析人士表示，接下来的一个月对中美关系来说至关重要。上海复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯表示，如果双方高级官员不进行认真的谈判，特朗普可能会对中国商品加征第三轮关税。他上个月也参加了在美国举行的非公开会谈。

“My impression is that at the moment there is no substantive contact, let alone negotiations” between the two governments, Mr. Wu said.

“我的印象是，目前（两国政府之间）没有实质性的接触，更不用说谈判了，”吴心伯说。

Mr. Trump’s blunt-force approach to diplomacy, as it were, is a challenge for China’s officials. The American leader has shown a willingness to use economic coercion and strong-arm tactics even on his country’s allies. He considers unpredictability to be his signature weapon. Chinese officials are often focused on protocol, on maintaining control and on ironing out details before summits to avoid surprises or loss of face.

可以说，特朗普生硬的外交手段对中国官员来说是个挑战。这位美国领导人甚至对自己国家的盟友都表现出了动用经济胁迫和强制手段的意愿。他把不可预测性视为自己的标志性武器。中国官员们通常把注意力集中在外交礼仪上，集中在把控局面、在峰会前敲定细节上，以免发生意外或丢面子。

Mr. Trump’s comment on Monday about a visit by Mr. Xi to Washington was likely more an indication of Mr. Trump’s interest in a meeting with the Chinese leader rather than a reflection of any summit that is actually in the works, said Evan Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University who served as an Asia adviser to President Barack Obama.

特朗普周一有关习近平访问华盛顿的言论，可能更多地是特朗普有兴趣与中国领导人见面的表示，而不是反映了峰会正在筹备中，乔治城大学亚洲研究教授麦艾文 (Evan Medeiros)说道，他曾担任奥巴马总统的亚洲事务顾问。

特朗普在“空军一号”上，摄于周日。

China is likely to want Mr. Trump to come to Beijing, rather than have Mr. Xi travel to the United States, as a matter of pride, Mr. Medeiros said.

出于自尊心的考虑，中国可能想让特朗普来北京，而不是习近平去美国，麦艾文说。

Trump officials appear to be concerned that any first moves by Mr. Trump to engage the Chinese or visit Beijing would reward China before officials have made any moves to benefit the United States, and could lock the United States into a cycle of drawn out and unproductive negotiations that characterized previous administrations. U.S. officials may also want to put a firmer agenda around any such meeting, to prevent Mr. Trump from impulsively striking a deal with Mr. Xi that could compromise U.S. interests, analysts said.

特朗普政府的官员似乎担心，在他们采取了任何有利于美国的行动之前，特朗普若率先与中国接触或者访问北京，都是对中国的奖励，而且可能会使美国陷入此前几届政府所经历的那些典型的、旷日持久且毫无成效的谈判循环中。分析人士说，美国官员可能还希望为这种峰会设定更确定的议程，以防止特朗普冲动地与习近平达成可能损害美国利益的协议。

In the absence of official meetings between the governments, other figures are stepping up to pitch themselves as emissaries. Senator Steve Daines of Montana, who will be visiting China this week to attend a business forum, said on Tuesday on Fox News that he would be “talking with the Chinese leadership about what they can do” about fentanyl. He would also discuss the purchases by China of more American planes, beef, wheat and other products. China has not commented on any meetings with Mr. Daines.

在两国政府之间没有正式会晤的情况下，一些人主动站出来让自己成为了外交使者。蒙大拿州联邦参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯将于本周前往中国参加一个商业论坛，他周二在福克斯新闻节目上说，他将“与中国领导层讨论他们能（在芬太尼问题上）做些什么”。他还将讨论中国购买更多美国飞机、牛肉、小麦，以及其他产品的问题。中国还未就与戴恩斯举行任何会晤发表评论。

The tougher question for China is what deal, if any, can be made between the countries. Trump administration officials may want China to buy more from the United States, but the challenge is that America doesn’t have that much to sell, from China’s perspective, said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington.

对中国来说，一个更难回答的问题是两国之间如果能达成协议的话，会是什么样的协议。华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵表示，特朗普政府的官员们可能想让中国从美国购买更多产品，但挑战在于，从中国的角度来看，美国没有那么多产品可卖。

摆放在特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平在20国集团大阪峰会期间举行会晤的房间外的椅子，摄于2019年。

The United States refuses to sell high-tech products to China, and some officials regard Chinese investment as a threat. China has said any deal would only be acceptable if it is in line with market principles, meaning the United States can’t simply sell China products at a much higher price to meet a target.

美国拒绝向中国出售高科技产品，一些官员把中国在美国的投资视为威胁。中国表示，它能接受的任何协议都必须符合市场原则，这意味着美国不能为让出口中国的产品值达到目标而简单地提高价格。

For now, Mr. Trump might be biding his time to build leverage in a future negotiation with China, Ms. Sun said, dealing with other trading partners while letting the Chinese “stew in their own juice at the same time.”

孙韵说，就目前而言，特朗普也许正在等待时机，以便为未来与中国的谈判积累筹码，先与其他贸易伙伴打交道，同时让中国人“自己着急去吧”。