As a presidential candidate, Donald J. Trump promised an economic “boom like no other.”

特朗普还是总统候选人时，曾经承诺让经济出现“非同一般的繁荣”。

But eight weeks into his presidency, Mr. Trump is refusing to rule out a recession — a striking change in tone and message for a man who rode widespread economic dissatisfaction to the White House by promising to “make America affordable again.”

但在就任总统八周后，特朗普正在拒绝排除有经济衰退的可能性。对于一个凭借“让美国再次变得负担得起”的承诺、利用老百姓对经济的普遍不满入主白宫的人来说，这在语气和信息传递上是一个惊人的改变。

His comments come as the stock market is tumbling — the S&P 500 fell 2.7 percent Monday after falling 3.1 percent last week — and business leaders are spooked about the uncertainty over his tariffs. Even some Republicans, who fear retribution if they cross Mr. Trump, have started to raise concerns about his levies.

他发表这番言论的同时，股市正在暴跌：标准普尔500指数上周下跌了3.1%后，周一又下跌了2.7%，商界领袖们也被他的关税带来的不确定性吓坏了。就连一些担心如果反对特朗普会遭到报复的共和党人，也开始对他加征关税的做法表示担忧。

The moment captures a fundamental challenge for Mr. Trump, a showman who makes absolute and sweeping promises that inevitably run into the reality of governing.

这个时刻凸显出特朗普面临的一个根本性挑战。他喜欢出风头，爱做笼统、绝对的承诺，这些承诺不可避免地会与执政的现实出现冲突。

The economy Mr. Trump inherited was by many standards in solid shape, with low unemployment, moderate growth and an inflation rate that, while still higher than what the Federal Reserve wants, had declined substantially. But the uncertainty that his policies have injected into the outlook is a jarring contrast with the picture Mr. Trump painted on the campaign trail.

按许多标准来看，特朗普接手的经济状况都不错，失业率低，增长适中，通货膨胀率虽仍高于美联储的预期，但已大幅降低。但特朗普的政策给前景注入的不确定性与他在竞选期间的描绘形成了鲜明的反差。

“We will begin a new era of soaring incomes,” Mr. Trump said at a rally in October. “Skyrocketing wealth. Millions and millions of new jobs and a booming middle class. We are going to boom like we’ve never boomed before.”

“我们将开启收入猛增的新时代，”特朗普在去年10月的一次集会上说。“财富飞涨。成百上千万的新工作岗位，以及一个蓬勃发展的中产阶级。我们将迎来前所未有的繁荣。”

That vow to create an economic boom has come into conflict, at least for now, with the president’s favorite economic tool: tariffs. He promised those too during the campaign and, as economists warned, they are the primary driver of the country’s cloudy economic outlook. Forecasts from both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs say a recession over the next year has become more likely because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.

创造经济繁荣的誓言已与总统最喜欢的经济工具——关税发生了冲突，至少目前是这样。他在竞选期间也承诺加征关税，正如经济学家们警告的那样，加征关税是美国经济前景不明朗的主要驱动因素。来自摩根大通和高盛的预测都称，由于特朗普的关税，经济在未来一年出现衰退的可能性已增大了。

So far, the president appears to be trying to lower expectations. In an interview that aired Sunday on Fox News, Mr. Trump demurred when asked by Maria Bartiromo if he expected a recession this year.

迄今为止，总统似乎要试图降低人们的预期。在福克斯新闻周日播出的采访中，玛丽亚·巴蒂罗莫问特朗普是否预计经济今年会出现衰退后，特朗普拒绝回答。

“I hate to predict things like that,” he said. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

“我讨厌预测这种事情，”他说。“会有一个过渡时期，因为我们正在做的事情非常大。我们正在把财富带回美国。那是件大事。而且总是会有这样的过渡时期，那需要一点时间。虽然需要一点时间，但我认为那对我们应该是件好事。”

In his speech last week to a joint session of Congress, Mr. Trump acknowledged that tariffs would cause “a little disturbance.” But he said: “We are OK with that. It won’t be much.”

特朗普上周在国会联席会议发表讲话时承认，关税会造成“一点干扰”。但他说，“我们能接受。干扰不会太大。”

特朗普上周对来自加拿大、墨西哥和中国的产品征收了广泛的关税，但几天后又取消了部分关税。

Even as markets sink, world leaders revolt and business leaders speak out, Mr. Trump has made clear he has no plans to shift his tariff strategy. He imposed broad tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China last week and has vowed to move ahead with more next month. But Mr. Trump, who has a penchant for changing positions on a whim, already reversed course on some of the tariffs and could do so again.

即便股市下跌、世界各国领导人抗议、商界领袖纷纷发声的时候，特朗普仍明确表示，他没有改变关税策略的打算。他上周对来自加拿大、墨西哥和中国的商品征收了广泛的关税，并誓言下个月将进一步加征关税。但特朗普喜欢一时兴起就改变立场，他已经在一些关税上改变了行动方向，而且可能会再次这样做。

“Look, our country has been ripped off for many decades, for many, many decades, and we’re not going to be ripped off anymore,” Mr. Trump said on Fox News.

“听我说，我们的国家几十年一直被占便宜，几十年了，我们不会再被占便宜了，”特朗普在福克斯新闻上说。

Mr. Trump, who rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange in December, closely monitors the stock market. In his first term, he regularly pointed to a prosperous stock market as evidence of his success. Many business leaders rallied behind Mr. Trump’s campaign because of their belief that he would prioritize their economic interests, but now some chief executives and small-business owners are complaining about the economic pain his tariffs will bring. The president may hear those concerns directly from top chief executives when he meets with members of the Business Roundtable on Tuesday.

去年12月曾在纽约证券交易所敲开市钟的特朗普对股市密切关注。在第一个任期内，他经常把股市的繁荣作为自己成功的证据。许多商界领袖在总统大选中支持特朗普，因为他们认为他会优先考虑商人的经济利益，但现在一些大企业的首席执行官和小企业业主们正在抱怨，特朗普的关税将给他们带来经济痛苦。总统周二与商业圆桌会议的成员见面时，也许会从主要的首席执行官们那里直接听到这些担忧。

On Monday, as the stock market had its worst day since December, White House officials sought to redirect the conversation.

周一，随着股市出现了去年12月以来最糟糕的一天，白宫官员们试图将话题转移到别的事情上去。

“Since President Trump was elected, industry leaders have responded to President Trump’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, and the unleashing of American energy with trillions in investment commitments that will create thousands of new jobs,” Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said in a statement. “President Trump delivered historic job, wage, and investment growth in his first term, and is set to do so again in his second term.”

“自从特朗普当选总统以来，业界领袖们响应特朗普总统的美国优先经济议程，包括关税、放宽管制、释放美国的活力等，对数万亿美元的投资作出承诺，这将创造成千上万个新就业岗位，”白宫发言人库什·德赛在一份声明中说。“特朗普总统在第一个任期里实现了历史性的就业、工资和投资增长，他将在第二任期里再次实现这些目标。”

In recent days, Mr. Trump’s top advisers have tried to reassure the markets and business leaders. Howard Lutnick, the voluble commerce secretary, said Sunday that there was “no chance” of a recession. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, was not as adamant, saying Friday that there would be a “natural adjustment” as the economy goes through a “detox period” of relying on government spending.

最近几天，特朗普的高级顾问们已试图安抚股市和商界领袖。健谈的商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克周日说，“不可能”出现经济衰退。财政部长斯科特·贝森特则不那么坚定，他在上周五表示，随着经济度过一个不再依赖政府支出的“排毒期”，会出现一个“自然的调整”。

“The full-court press by the president and his surrogates this weekend signals they are under a great deal of pressure from people they listen to — the stock market, Republican lawmakers, and business leaders,” said Kate Kalutkiewicz, the senior managing director at McLarty Associates, an advisory firm.

“总统和助手们周末全力公关表明，他们正承受着巨大的压力，这些压力来自他们所重视的人和事，包括股市、共和党议员们，以及商界领袖，”麦克拉蒂咨询公司的高级董事总经理凯特·卡卢特基维茨说。

Ms. Kalutkiewicz, who worked on the National Economic Council in the first Trump term, said the comments by the president and his aides suggest they don’t plan to change course in response to the growing chorus of concern.

卡卢特基维茨曾在特朗普的第一个任期供职于国家经济委员会，她说，总统及其助手们的言论表明，他们不打算对日益增多的担忧声浪做出响应，改变做法。

Stephen Moore, an economist at the Heritage Foundation who is a former economic adviser to Mr. Trump, said the issue for the president is the timing. Mr. Moore said Mr. Trump should have waited until Congress passed tax cuts to institute tariffs.

传统基金会的经济学家、曾在特朗普手下担任经济顾问的斯蒂芬·摩尔说，总统的问题是时间选择。摩尔说，特朗普应该等待国会通过减税法案后再加征关税。

“First, let’s get the economy booming again and then let’s talk about tariffs,” he said. “I think there needs to be a bit of a priority shift.”

“首先，我们要让经济再次繁荣起来，然后再谈关税，”他说。“我认为需要稍微改变一下轻重缓急。”

Senator Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat who is the ranking member on the Senate Finance Committee, said the Trump administration’s approach to tariffs is “poison” for the U.S. economy.

参议院财政委员会资深委员、俄勒冈州的民主党联邦参议员罗恩·怀登说，特朗普政府加征关税的做法是在给美国的经济“下毒”。

“The chaos they create every single day is basically an anchor tied to the American economy, and it’s going to drag more and more of our workers under water the longer this goes on,” he said in an interview. “We’re trying to stop them.”

“他们天天制造混乱，基本上是在让美国经济抛锚，这种情况持续的时间越长，就会把越来越多的工人拖入困境，”怀登在接受采访时说。“我们正在设法阻止他们。”

The question hanging over Washington is how long Mr. Trump can stomach a declining stock market — and the ensuing negative media coverage that accompanies it.

美国政府面前的问题是，特朗普能忍受股市下跌以及随之而来的负面媒体报道多久时间。

“I don’t know,” Mr. Moore said. “It’s a good question. I’m sure the president is concerned about the losses in the stock market over the last 10 days. We all are.”

“我不知道，”摩尔说。“这是个好问题。我能肯定的是，总统对过去10天的股市下跌感到担忧。我们都在担忧。”