As far as first salvos go, President Donald J. Trump’s threat of a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods in retaliation for China’s role in America’s fentanyl crisis could be interpreted in Beijing as encouraging.

美国总统特朗普威胁对中国商品加征10%的关税，以报复中国在美国芬太尼危机中所起的作用。作为第一轮进攻，他的做法可能在北京看来是令人鼓舞的。

Not only is it lower than the 60 percent duties Mr. Trump had said he would impose on key Chinese goods during his campaign, it also reaffirmed signals that the president was in the mood to negotiate with China. In his first two days in office Mr. Trump has also floated the idea of tying tariffs to the fate of TikTok. He has said he expects to be invited to China for a visit.

这不仅低于特朗普在竞选期间表示要对关键中国商品征收的60%的关税，而且再次确定了总统有意与中国谈判的信号。在上任的头两天，特朗普还提出了将关税与TikTok的命运挂钩的想法。他还说，他期待应邀访华。

Mr. Trump’s apparent willingness to make deals with China could give Beijing much-needed time and space to tackle its most pressing needs. That includes trying to turn around a stagnant economy and ease tensions with trading partners over China’s record trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion. Beijing has also been working to repair ties with American allies like Japan to try to weaken the security alliances forged by the Biden administration to constrain China.

特朗普看来有与中国做交易的意愿，这可能为北京提供急需的时间和空间来解决其最紧迫的问题。这些问题包括试图扭转停滞不前的经济，缓解因中国创纪录的7万亿元贸易顺差而导致的与贸易伙伴的紧张关系。中国政府还一直在努力修复与日本等美国盟友的关系，试图削弱拜登政府为制衡中国而打造的安全联盟。

Making headway on those fronts will help China strengthen its position in what has been a punishing superpower rivalry with the United States. Beijing ultimately wants the Trump administration to reset relations. It has argued that the United States should remove restrictions on Chinese imports of U.S. technology, stop supporting Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing, and accept China as a peer power.

在这些方面取得进展将有助于中国加强它在与美国展开激烈超级大国竞争中的地位。中国政府最终想看到的是，特朗普政府重启两国关系。中国已提出理由说，美国应该取消对中国进口美国技术的限制，停止支持中国宣称拥有主权的自治岛屿台湾，并接受中国是与美国同等的大国。

Beijing may be calculating that it can placate Mr. Trump, perhaps with a TikTok sale, a crackdown on fentanyl precursor producers, or a refresh of the trade deal Mr. Trump and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, signed in 2020, analysts said.

分析人士说，北京方面可能正盘算着安抚特朗普，也许通过出售TikTok、打击芬太尼前体生产商，或更新特朗普与中国最高领导人习近平2020年签定的贸易协议。

“From an economic perspective, it’d be in Washington’s and Beijing’s interests to come up with some kind of a pseudo grand bargain that met both sides’ immediate political needs without sacrificing too much,” said Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“从经济角度来看，达成某种表面上的大交易会符合华盛顿和北京的利益，既能满足双方当前的政治需求，又不至于牺牲太多的东西，”战略与国际研究中心的甘思德(Scott Kennedy)说。

重庆港口的集装箱，摄于本月。中国去年的贸易顺差超过7万亿元。

It is unclear where Mr. Trump, who considers unpredictability to be his signature weapon, stands on any of these issues. The U.S. president has surrounded himself with advisers with contrasting views on China. His secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said as recently as last week at his Senate confirmation hearing that China was the “biggest threat” to American prosperity. But one of Mr. Trump’s billionaire advisers, Elon Musk, the tycoon who owns Tesla, has vast business interests in China and has taken Beijing’s side on international disputes (such as Taiwan).

尚不清楚特朗普在这些问题上持何种立场，他把不可预测性看作自己的标志性武器。这名美国总统把对中国持截然不同看法的顾问安排在身边。他的国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥已多次表示中国是美国繁荣的“最大威胁”，最近一次是在上周的参议院国务卿提名确认听证会上。但特朗普的亿万富翁顾问之一是拥有特斯拉的商业大亨埃隆·马斯克，他在中国有巨大的商业利益，并已在国际争端（如台湾问题）上站在中国政府一边。

Mr. Trump’s first days back have quickly highlighted the early differences between the Biden and Trump administrations when it comes to dealing with China. Where the previous administration favored sanctions and alliances to shape the global environment around China, the Trump White House appears intent to use tariffs as part of a carrot and stick strategy to achieve its domestic “America First” goals.

在重返白宫的头几天里，特朗普让他的政府与拜登政府在与中国打交道上的早期分歧迅速凸显出来。上届政府倾向于通过制裁和结盟来塑造中国周边的全球环境，而特朗普的白宫看来有意将关税作为胡萝卜加大棒战略的一部分，以实现其“美国优先”的国内目标。

China is thought to welcome the new approach, at least for now, as long as it leaves room for China to try to fend off a full-blown trade war. Its economy is already facing a deepening malaise, brought on by a property crisis, mounting government debt and weak consumer spending.

人们认为中国会欢迎这种新做法，至少目前如此，只要它为中国留下空间来抵御一场全面贸易战。由于房地产危机、不断攀升的政府债务，以及消费者不愿花钱，中国经济已面临日益严重的衰退。

China’s economic challenges mean its bargaining position is weaker than it had been in the first Trump administration. But Beijing also has more tools now to fight back.

中国面临的经济挑战意味着其谈判地位比在特朗普第一次执政时期的弱。但中国政府现在也有更多反击的工具。

特朗普与中国领导人习近平2017年在北京。中国的分析人士说，中美关系在特朗普第一次执政期间恶化后，习近平觉得上了当。

China has demonstrated in recent months that it is willing to use new measures to retaliate, including by restricting American access to important minerals, investigating U.S. companies like PVH for boycotting Xinjiang cotton and sanctioning Skydio, a U.S. drone maker supplying Ukraine’s military.

中国已在近几个月里表现出愿意采取新的报复措施，做法包括限制美国获取重要的矿产品，调查PVH等抵制新疆棉花的美国公司，以及制裁向乌克兰军队供货的美国无人机制造商斯凯迪欧。

“China’s ready to go either way. They’re ready for a battle or for bargaining,” said Mr. Kennedy, who tried to gauge the mood in China during his two-week stay there after the U.S. presidential election.

“中国已做好了两手准备。他们已准备战斗或谈判，”甘思德说，他曾在美国总统大选结束后在中国呆了两周，试图了解中国人的心情。

The first big test for where U.S.-China relations go under a second Trump term could center on the future of the Chinese social media app, TikTok, in America.

对特朗普第二个任期内美中关系走向的首个重大考验，可能集中在中国社交媒体应用TikTok在美国的未来上。

On Monday, Mr. Trump signed an executive order delaying a ban of the platform. Then he suggested Beijing should approve a deal to split ownership of the app with an American buyer, or he would impose tariffs as high as 100 percent.

周一，特朗​普签署了一项行政命令，推迟了对该平台实施禁令的时间。他在那之后暗示，中国政府应该批准一项将该应用的所有权剥离给一个美国买家的交易，否则他将征收高达100%的关税。

“If Trump can strike a deal that addresses national security concerns while keeping the app alive, he’ll be hailed as a hero by young voters,” said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a research organization in Washington. If ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, “won’t bend, he can blame Beijing, framing them as the barrier to progress.”

“如果特朗普能做成一笔交易，在解决了国家安全问题的同时，让这款应用继续存在下去的话，他将在年轻选民眼里是英雄，”华盛顿研究机构保卫民主基金会的中国问题高级研究员克雷格·辛格尔顿说。如果TikTok的母公司字节跳动“不让步的话，他可以责怪中国政府，称其为进展的障碍”。

TikTok母公司字节跳动的北京办公室。公司到目前为止一直强烈反对出售TikTok。

A compromise on TikTok might be acceptable to China. The app is not what China considers strategic, leading-edge technology, like the A.I. chips and supercomputing capabilities that Mr. Xi covets to make his country more powerful and self-sufficient. China opposed the sale of TikTok in 2023, but has lately appeared to soften its stance, saying through a foreign ministry spokeswoman that any acquisition of a business should adhere to “market principles” and “Chinese laws and regulations.”

在TikTok问题上做出妥协对中国来说也许可以接受。这款应用并不属于中国认为的战略性尖端技术范畴，比如人工智能芯片和超级计算能力，那些是习近平为了让中国变得更强大、更自力更生而渴望得到的。虽然中国曾在2023年表示反对出售TikTok，但最近态度似乎有所软化。中国外交部的一名发言人说，任何收购都应“根据市场的原则”、“符合中国的法律法规。”

China has also sought to remind Mr. Trump of China’s geopolitical sway. On Tuesday, Mr. Xi held a video call with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, a leader with whom he has bonded, as two autocrats battling Western pressure. Mr. Xi said they should “deepen strategic coordination, firmly support each other, and defend their legitimate interests.”

中国也试图提醒特朗普注意中国的地缘政治影响力。周二，习近平与俄罗斯总统普京举行了视频会晤，这两位独裁者在对抗西方压力上建立了密切关系。习近平表示，两国应该“继续深化战略协作，坚定相互支持，维护两国正当利益”。

The call underscored Beijing’s influence over Russia at a time when Mr. Trump has expressed a desire to bring an end to the fighting in Ukraine. Separately, it signaled an enduring solidarity between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin despite the presence of Han Zheng, China’s vice president, at Mr. Trump’s inauguration.

在特朗普表示渴望结束俄乌战争的时候举行视频会晤，凸显了中国政府对俄罗斯的影响力。视频通话也是习近平与普京的团结经久不衰的信号，尽管中国派出国家副主席韩正出席特朗普的就职典礼。

“Xi wants to have all his bases covered,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. “He wants to show Trump that China still has Russia in its corner.”

“习近平希望确保万无一失，”华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵说。“他想向特朗普表明，俄罗斯仍站在中国这边。”

中国国家副主席韩正周一出席了特朗普的就职仪式。

For now, Mr. Xi has sought to strike a positive note with Mr. Trump, expressing hope for a “good start” to the countries’ relations under the new administration during a call with Mr. Trump on Friday.

就目前而言，习近平寻求向特朗普发出积极的信号。他上周五与特朗普通电话时表示，希望中美关系在总统的新任期有“好的开始”。

But he also drew a hard line on China’s concerns, urging Mr. Trump to handle the status of Taiwan with prudence. In 2016, Mr. Trump took a call from Tsai Ing-wen, who was then Taiwan’s president, drawing China’s condemnation.

但习近平也在中国担心的问题上立场坚定，他呼吁特朗普谨慎处理台湾地位问题。特朗普2016年当选总统后曾接听了时任台湾总统蔡英文的电话，引发了中国的强烈谴责。

Already, though, some of Mr. Trump’s decisions are playing into China’s broader global ambition of reshaping the global order to give Beijing a bigger say. Mr. Trump’s moves to pull the United States out of the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement, a U.N. climate pact, and his willingness to alienate partners like Mexico and Canada with 25 percent tariffs, arguably serve China’s longer-term interests.

但特朗普的一些决定已经是中国政府更广泛的全球野心希望看到的。中国想重塑全球秩序、让北京有更大的话语权。特朗普让美国退出世界卫生组织和联合国气候公约《巴黎协定》，以及愿意用25%的关税来疏远墨西哥和加拿大等合作伙伴的做法，无疑符合中国的长期利益。

Still, Chinese analysts said Beijing was proceeding with immense caution. They feel China was burned at the start of Mr. Trump’s first term, when he turned on the charm, inviting Mr. Xi to Mar-a-Lago where they dined on cake. A year later, the relationship began its steady dive to the worst level since diplomatic relations were normalized in the 1970s.

尽管如此，中国的分析人士说，中国政府正在极其谨慎地行事。他们觉得中国曾在特朗普上次执政的初期上过当。特朗普当时发动了魅力攻势，把习近平请到马阿拉歌庄园，两人在那里吃了蛋糕。一年后，两国关系开始稳步下滑，跌到了1970年代两国外交关系正常化以来的最低水平。

Mr. Trump “wants to try to solve problems in a nonconfrontational way at first, but he will definitely bargain for more, so we must also be mentally prepared,” said Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

特朗普“一开始想尝试用非对抗的方式解决问题，但他肯定会进行更多的讨价还价，所以我们也要做好心理准备”，上海复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯说。