Over the last six months, the United States has left behind the global trade order that persisted for decades in favor of something drastically different and largely untested.

过去六个月里，美国脱离了持续数十年的全球贸易秩序，转而青睐一种截然不同且在很大程度上未经检验的模式。

Formidable economies like the European Union and Japan have abruptly made peace with higher tariffs on their exports, acquiescing to President Trump’s demands in order to avoid damaging trade wars and to coax even steeper U.S. duties down just a little bit.

为了避免破坏性的贸易战，并试图让美国略微降低其高额关税，像欧盟和日本这样的经济强国突然默认了特朗普总统的要求，接受了其出口产品面临的更高关税。

As major economies fall in line to sign agreements that include the highest tariffs in modern history, the president’s vision for global trade is rapidly being realized. That new normal uses America’s economy as leverage, with other countries accepting tariffs of 15 to 20 percent to do business with the United States. Even higher rates will be imposed on exports of critical products, like steel, or on certain adversarial countries, like China.

随着主要经济体纷纷签署包含现代史上最高关税的协议，特朗普总统对全球贸易的愿景正迅速成为现实。这种新常态以美国经济为杠杆，为了与美国开展贸易，其他国家不得不接受15%至20%的关税。对于钢铁等关键产品的出口，或是对中国等特定敌对国家未来还将征收更高的关税。

The outcome has seemingly proved Mr. Trump right that his tariff threats are a powerful bargaining tool. And the muted market reaction to 15 percent tariffs on Japan and the European Union suggests that the panic many expected from his earlier, more extreme levies may not materialize.

这一结果似乎证明特朗普的观点是正确的——他的关税威胁是一种强大的谈判工具。而市场对针对日本和欧盟的15%关税反应平淡，这表明许多人之前预计的、由他早期更极端征税举措引发的恐慌可能不会出现。

Nigel Green, the chief executive of deVere Group, a global financial advisory, called the E.U. deal “a reset, not a resolution.”

全球金融咨询公司德维尔集团的首席执行官奈杰尔·格林称，欧盟达成的协议是“一次重置，而非解决”。

“A year ago, markets would have recoiled,” he said. “Today, they’re simply grateful it wasn’t worse.”

他表示：“一年前，市场可能会恐惧。而如今，市场只是庆幸情况没有变得更糟。”

While the president’s plan for global trade now looks like a political victory, whether it will be an economic success remains much more debatable. The Trump administration has essentially embarked on a vast economic experiment, with tariff levels not seen in the United States since the early 20th century. The rates Mr. Trump is asking other countries to agree to are typically used by poor economies trying to protect nascent industries, not by industrial powerhouses like the United States.

尽管特朗普总统的全球贸易计划看似取得了政治胜利，但能否在经济上取得成功仍存在很大争议。特朗普政府实质上开启了一场大规模的经济实验，其关税水平是美国自20世纪初以来未曾有过的。特朗普要求其他国家接受的关税税率，通常只有试图保护自身新兴产业的贫穷经济体才会使用，不会是美国这样的工业强国。

Mr. Trump and his supporters argue that higher tariffs will encourage many more companies to produce in the United States, creating U.S. factory jobs while having minimal impact on businesses and consumers. The president also insists that foreign governments, not U.S. businesses or consumers, will pay the tariffs, despite longstanding research that shows Americans ultimately bear the brunt.

特朗普及其支持者认为，更高的关税将鼓励更多公司在美国本土生产，创造美国的工厂就业岗位，同时对企业和消费者的影响微乎其微。总统还坚称，关税的成本会由外国政府而非美国企业或消费者来承担，然而长期的研究表明，最终承受冲击的将是美国人。

But many economists continue to predict that Mr. Trump’s tariffs will result in higher prices both for businesses that import products and for the consumers who buy them. They expect that to slow the economy and backfire, at least somewhat, on the president’s efforts to rev up manufacturing.

而许多经济学家仍预测，特朗普的关税政策将导致进口产品的企业以及购买这些产品的消费者面临更高价格。他们预计，这会减缓经济增长，至少在一定程度上会对总统振兴制造业的努力产生反效果。

In recent weeks, automakers like General Motors and Volkswagen have reported hits of more than $1 billion from tariffs.

最近几周，通用汽车和大众等汽车制造商报告称，关税给它们造成的损失超过10亿美元。

“What’s lost in translation is even as these deals are being cut, the eventual tariff rate is likely to peak around 20 percent, which is up a lot from below 3,” said Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG.

毕马威的首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克表示：“人们忽略的一点是，即便达成了这些协议，最终的关税税率可能会达到20%左右的峰值，这比之前不到3%的水平大幅上升。”

While people expected the economic effect of tariffs to be “instantaneous,” Ms. Swonk said, their rollout has been uneven, with many stops and starts, and it is taking time for the impact to work through supply chains. Economic research suggests that it takes six to 18 months for the full effects of tariffs to show up, she said, and that Mr. Trump’s first-term trade war with China, which began in 2018, did not lead to weakness in manufacturing until the next year.

斯旺克称，尽管人们预期关税的经济影响会“立竿见影”，但关税的实施过程并不均衡，会多次中断又重启，其影响需要过一段时间才会渗透到供应链中。她说，经济研究表明，关税的全部影响需要6至18个月才会显现，而特朗普在2018年开启的第一任期内与中国的贸易战，直到次年才导致制造业走弱。

Brad Setser, an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations, said he believed that the tariffs were “big enough that they’re going to slow the economy” and “a meaningful change in policy, one that I think most Americans will feel.”

美国外交关系委员会的经济学家布拉德·塞策表示，他认为这些关税“规模足够大，将会减缓经济增长”，而且“这是一项影响深远的政策变化，我认为大多数美国人都会感受到”。

But he cautioned that the tariffs were probably not significant enough to push the U.S. economy into a recession, and that price increases for consumers would be “big enough to be noticeable but not a giant shock.” Buyers of small appliances, clothing and toys are likely to see an impact by this fall, given the tariffs of 20 to 30 percent on many Asian countries that make those goods, Mr. Setser said.

但他也提醒，这些关税可能还不足以将美国经济推入衰退，给消费者带来的价格上涨“足以引起注意，但不会是巨大的冲击”。塞策称，鉴于许多生产小型家电、服装和玩具的亚洲国家面临20%至30%的关税，到今年秋天，这些产品的购买者可能会感受到影响。

“It’s a policy that in most models would slow the economy, not stop the economy from growing,” he said.

“在大多数经济模型中，这样的政策会减缓经济增长，但不会阻止经济增长，”他说。

Some analysts argued that recent deal announcements have been positive because they have averted, at least for now, the likelihood of trade wars with major trading partners, but some say the agreements have limited economic benefits beyond that.

一些分析人士认为，最近宣布的协议是积极的，因为它们至少暂时避免了与主要贸易伙伴爆发贸易战的可能性，但也有一些人表示，除了这一点之外，这些协议带来的经济益处有限。

Mr. Trump’s efforts to redraw the global trade map are not yet done. His administration has yet to clarify what tariff rates will apply to dozens of countries as of Friday, its deadline for reaching deals. According to tracking by Goldman Sachs, trading partners accounting for 56 percent of U.S. imports — including Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Brazil and India — have not yet signed preliminary agreements.

特朗普重塑全球贸易格局的努力尚未完成。他的政府尚未明确，截至周五（达成协议的最后期限），将对数十个国家适用何种关税税率。根据高盛的追踪数据，占美国进口额56%的贸易伙伴——包括加拿大、墨西哥、韩国、巴西和印度——尚未签署初步协议。

Analysts said it was also possible that the deals Mr. Trump has struck could unravel quickly, given his penchant for making new tariff threats and renegotiating agreements that even he himself has signed. U.S. officials have signaled that they expect to issue new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals in the next two to three weeks, which could further reroute trade and anger some trading partners.

分析人士表示，鉴于特朗普喜欢发出新的关税威胁，并且即使是他自己签署的协议也会重新谈判，他达成的这些协议也可能很快破裂。美国官员已暗示，预计将在未来两到三周内对半导体和药品征收新关税，这可能会进一步改变贸易流向，并激怒一些贸易伙伴。

As a large and diverse economy, the United States is generally less dependent on trade than other countries. Trade generates about a quarter of U.S. economic activity, compared with more than two-thirds in Mexico and Canada. In Canada, analysts say, U.S. tariffs may trigger a recession that could last through 2025 unless a deal with the United States is reached.

作为一个规模庞大且多元化的经济体，美国对贸易的依赖程度总体上低于其他国家。贸易约占美国经济活动的四分之一，而在墨西哥和加拿大，这一比例超过三分之二。分析人士称，在加拿大，如果不能与美国达成协议，美国的关税可能会引发一场持续到2025年底的衰退。

But the effects of tariffs still spill through the U.S. economy, by raising costs for businesses and consumers. That gives businesses less money to spend on hiring, expansion and innovation, and slows consumer spending, the economy’s real driver.

但关税的影响仍会波及美国经济，推高企业和消费者的成本。这使得企业用于招聘、扩张和创新的资金减少，并减缓作为经济真正驱动力的消费者支出。