Since President Trump launched a new war with Iran, he has portrayed it as a shock-and-awe assault with few lasting consequences, especially for Americans. On Monday in Florida, he called it a “brief disruption.”

自特朗普总统对伊朗发动新的战争以来，他始终将其描述为一场震慑式打击，几乎不会产生长期后果，对美国人而言尤其如此。周一在佛罗里达州，他称这场战争只是一次“短暂的干扰”。

Experts say it is rapidly becoming something else entirely: a jolt to the global security order and economy that far exceeds those delivered by other recent conflicts in the Middle East.

但专家表示，这场战争正迅速演变成完全不同的局面：它对全球安全秩序与经济的冲击，已远超近期中东其他冲突带来的影响。

Mr. Trump’s war, now nearly two weeks old, is already reshaping travel patterns, energy dependencies, living costs, trade routes and strategic partnerships. Countries typically shielded from regional conflict, like Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates, have faced retaliatory Iranian fire. The fallout could disrupt midterm elections in the United States, tilt the war calculus in Ukraine and force China into a major economic pivot.

特朗普发动的这场战争持续了近两周，目前已在重塑旅行模式、能源依赖格局、生活成本、贸易航线与战略伙伴关系。塞浦路斯、阿联酋等以往不受地区冲突波及的国家也遭到了伊朗的报复性袭击。这场战争的连锁反应可能扰乱美国中期选举、改变乌克兰战场的博弈格局，并迫使中国做出重大经济战略调整。

Those effects may compound if Mr. Trump presses ahead with the war, particularly if Iran escalates its counterattacks and blocks ship traffic through the critical oil passage of the Strait of Hormuz. Some economists are already invoking a dreaded memory for any U.S. president — the specter of oil-shock-induced stagflation, with growth stalling and prices roaring upward.

如果特朗普继续推进战争，尤其是伊朗升级反击、封锁石油运输要道霍尔木兹海峡的航运，这些影响还会进一步叠加。部分经济学家提及一段令历任美国总统闻之色变的往事——石油冲击引发滞胀的阴霾，即经济增长停滞、物价大幅飙升的局面。

“I’m old enough to remember the events of the ’70s, and a world in which oil price spikes were a significant issue both economically and for a president who might be facing elections,” said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution. “That doesn’t seem to have been priced into the decision making,” she added.

“我这个年纪还记得70年代的那些事，当年油价飙升不仅是重大经济问题，对面临大选的总统而言也是大事，”布鲁金斯学会伊朗问题专家苏珊娜·马洛尼表示。“而这一点似乎并未被纳入本次决策的考量范围。”

周二北京某加油站。全球许多地区预计将在加油站率先感受到这场战争带来的影响。

The war is most immediately and viscerally affecting the Middle East. Attacks across the region have killed more than a thousand people and wrought extensive damage to critical infrastructure and the environment — unleashing plumes of noxious smoke and black rain over Tehran after Israeli strikes on fuel depots.

这场战争对中东的影响最为直接、最为深切。席卷整个地区的袭击已造成逾千人死亡，关键基础设施与生态环境遭到严重破坏——以色列空袭伊朗油库后，德黑兰上空弥漫着有毒浓烟，还降下了黑雨。

The conflict has shaken the foundation of the Persian Gulf economies, cracking their carefully cultivated images as safe havens in a turbulent region. Iran has launched more attacks on the Gulf countries than it has on Israel, according to an American war monitor, hitting five-star hotels, damaging desalination plants and sending tourists fleeing for evacuation routes.

这场冲突动摇了波斯湾各国经济的根基，击碎了它们精心打造的动荡地区安全避风港的形象。据美国一家战争监测机构统计，伊朗对海湾国家发动的袭击次数超过对以色列的袭击，目标包括五星级酒店、海水淡化厂，大批游客仓皇寻找撤离通道。

Airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates, have come under attack. European officials are still attempting to rescue their citizens who have been marooned in what once seemed like tranquil vacation spots. The U.S. State Department, after initially facing criticism for acting too slowly, said it had organized over two dozen charter flights and had evacuated thousands of Americans from the Middle East.

阿联酋迪拜和阿布扎比的机场均遭袭击。欧洲官员仍在设法营救滞留在这些昔日宁静度假胜地的本国公民。美国国务院最初因行动迟缓遭到批评，目前表示已组织20余架包机，从中东撤离了数千名美国公民。

Experts warn that reputational damage will linger in the Gulf. Beyond the wealth those countries possess, “the real currency was confidence,” Emile Hokayem, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in a panel discussion this week.

专家警告，海湾国家的声誉受损将长期持续。国际战略研究所中东问题专家埃米尔·霍卡耶姆本周在一场专题讨论会上表示，除了拥有的财富，这些国家“真正的硬通货是信心”。

“It wasn’t just the money, it’s the fact that they could realistically tell people it’s a good business environment, you will feel safe,” he added. “We’re immune to regional politics. You can invest here. You can use us for your trade, your airlines, for your comms, your tech and so on. And that’s what the Iranians are after, right?”

他还说：“关键不只是财富，而是它们能实实在在地告诉外界：这里营商环境良好，你们会感到安全。我们不受地区政局动荡影响。你们可以在这里投资，可以利用我们开展贸易、航空、通信、科技等业务。而这正是伊朗想要摧毁的，不是吗？”

周日，从阿联酋迪拜撤离的航班抵达坦桑尼亚后，乘客们陆续下机。

For much of the rest of the world, one of the first pains from the war was felt at the gasoline pump. When tankers stopped moving through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel on global markets, though they have receded somewhat in recent days. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said on Monday that his country would send 10 warships to the region, potentially to escort vessels through the strait.

对世界其他大多数地区而言，这场战争带来的首个阵痛体现在加油站。油轮暂停通行霍尔木兹海峡后，全球市场油价一度突破每桶100美元，尽管近日有所回落。法国总统马克龙周一表示，法国将向该地区派遣10艘军舰，或为穿越海峡的船只提供护航。

Trump administration officials and European leaders have explored options in recent days to reduce gasoline prices, which have risen along with the global price of oil. Economists have begun warning that if the oil shock persists for weeks, it could ignite an escalating set of price increases across economies, while weighing on economic growth — a fate similar to the stagflation that followed the 1979 Iranian revolution.

特朗普政府官员与欧洲各国领导人近日已在研究平抑汽油价格的方案，美国油价已随全球原油价格同步上涨。经济学家已发出警告：如果此次石油冲击持续数周，可能引发各经济体的物价全面持续攀升，同时拖累经济增长——这与1979年伊朗革命后出现的滞胀局面如出一辙。

“Whether history repeats itself all depends on how long this conflict lasts,” researchers at Deutsche Bank wrote this week.

“历史是否会重演完全取决于这场冲突持续多久，”德意志银行的研究人员本周在报告中写道。

The loss of access to cheap oil is an emerging risk for China — and not the only one. Chinese exporters have become increasingly reliant on Middle Eastern consumers. A disruption to Middle Eastern economies could limit sales of Chinese goods there, undercutting China’s own growth.

对中国而言，无法再获取廉价石油是一个正在显现的风险，但并非唯一风险。中国出口商对中东消费市场的依赖度日益提升，中东经济动荡可能抑制当地对中国商品的需求，进而冲击中国自身的经济增长。

The surge in oil prices is, conversely, helping Russia — by bolstering the oil revenues that help to fund Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine. Europeans are also worried that the heavy fighting in the Middle East will indirectly harm Ukrainian defenses: The more interceptor missiles are used by the United States and its allies to counter Iran, the fewer are available to Ukraine for its defense against Russian attacks.

反过来，油价飙升却让俄罗斯从中受益——石油收入增加，可以为莫斯科在乌克兰的战争机器提供更多资金。欧洲国家也担忧，中东的激烈战事将间接损害乌克兰的防御能力：美国及其盟友为拦截伊朗袭击消耗的拦截弹越多，能提供给乌克兰抵御俄罗斯进攻的弹药就越少。

周五空袭期间特拉维夫上空的景象。

In the United States, the war appears already to be a political liability for Mr. Trump. It has relatively little public support compared to previous wars. Democrats are seizing on rising energy costs to court voters ahead of midterm elections that were already focused on the rising cost of living.

在美国国内，这场战争显然已成为特朗普的政治包袱。与此前的历次战争相比，这场战争的民众支持率相对较低。中期选举的核心议题本就是生活成本不断上涨，民主党人正抓住能源价格攀升的问题争取选民。

More immediately, it has cast a shadow over an event Mr. Trump had hoped would be a signature American triumph under his presidency: the men’s soccer World Cup, which is set to kick off this summer in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Iran is one of the teams scheduled to compete. But it’s unclear if its team will be able to — and what might happen if it can’t.

更直接的是，这场战争给特朗普原本寄望成为其总统任期标志性胜利的盛事蒙上阴影：今年夏天将在美国、加拿大和墨西哥开赛的男足世界杯。伊朗是原定参赛的球队之一，但目前伊朗队能否参赛仍不明确，若它无法参赛，可能引发何种后果亦未可知。

Publicly, Mr. Trump has trumpeted the military might that the United States and Israel have poured into the war, while offering shifting explanations for what prompted the attacks on Iran and varying timelines for when it might end. He has acknowledged some costs of the war, including the American service members who have been killed since it began.

在公开场合，特朗普大肆宣扬美以为这场战争倾注的军事力量，但对发动对伊攻击的动机给出反复无常的解释，对战争何时结束也给出不同时间表。他也承认了战争带来的部分代价，包括开战以来阵亡的美军士兵。

The president has largely dismissed other downsides, like oil price increases, as temporary. He has alarmed allies by offering few concrete plans for how Iran’s government will function after the war.

对于油价上涨等其他负面影响，特朗普总统大多时候称其只是暂时现象，不予重视。他对战后伊朗政府如何运作几乎未提出具体方案，这令盟友深感不安。

In Europe, that has raised concerns of a cratering Iranian economy that could eventually drive new waves of migrants across the Iran-Turkey border. For Europeans, that summons memories of the continent’s migration crisis a decade ago, when conflicts and poverty in the Middle East and Africa led more than a million people to seek refuge in Europe, leading to a right-wing backlash in countries like Germany.

在欧洲，这引发了人们的担忧：伊朗经济若崩盘，最终可能引发新一波移民潮穿越伊土边境。对欧洲人而言，这唤起了十年前欧洲移民危机的记忆——当时中东与非洲的冲突和贫困导致超百万人前往欧洲寻求庇护，在德国等国引发了右翼势力的强烈反弹。

“The United States and Israel have been waging war against Iran for over a week. We share many of their goals,” said Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany on Tuesday. “But with each day of the war, more questions arise. We are particularly concerned that there appears to be no common plan for bringing this war to a swift and convincing conclusion.”

德国总理默茨周二表示：“美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争已超过一周。我们与他们的诸多目标是一致的。但战争每持续一天，就会产生更多疑问。我们尤为担忧的是，目前各方似乎没有制定出共同方案，推动这场战争迅速、妥善地结束。”