Trump administration officials have hailed the makings of a potential trade deal that could have China buy American soybeans and pause the introduction of its new licensing system on rare earth minerals, while the United States pauses or removes some of its tariffs.

特朗普政府官员称赞一项潜在贸易协议的进展。该协议可能要求中国采购美国大豆、暂停实施新的稀土矿产许可制度，而美国则会暂停或取消部分对华关税。

It remains to be seen what might be agreed when President Trump meets the Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week. But those and the other measures that U.S. officials have mentioned appear to largely restore the relationship to a status quo from earlier this year, before Mr. Trump began his latest trade war with Beijing.

特朗普总统本周与中国国家主席习近平会面时最终会达成何种共识，目前仍有待观察。但美国官员提及的上述措施及其他举措，似乎在很大程度上会将两国经贸关系恢复到今年早些时候的状态——也就是特朗普开启最新一轮对华贸易战之前的局面。

The United States and China have shown their willingness to repeatedly escalate trade tensions and hurt companies that do business across the Pacific, before walking back measures and striking a truce. But the truces have quickly crumbled, calling into question how durable a new agreement would be.

美中两国此前多次展现出升级贸易紧张局势、损害跨太平洋企业利益的意愿，之后又取消相关措施、达成休战。但这些休战状态很快就会破裂，让人对新协议的持久性产生疑问。

Speaking on ABC News on Sunday, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said American and Chinese negotiators who met in Malaysia over the weekend had “reached a substantial framework” for the two leaders to discuss when they meet in South Korea on Thursday.

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日在ABC新闻节目中表示，上周末在马来西亚会晤的中美谈判代表已就两国领导人周四在韩国会晤时讨论的议题“达成实质性框架”。

He said that a 100 percent increase in United States tariffs on Chinese exports scheduled for Nov. 1 had been averted, and that China had agreed to delay a rare earths licensing system “for a year while they re-examine it.” The Chinese also agreed to help the United States stop the flow of chemical ingredients used to make illicit fentanyl, and make “substantial agriculture purchases for U.S. farmers,” Mr. Bessent said.

他表示，原定于11月1日实施的美国对华出口商品关税提高100%的计划已被取消；中国同意将稀土许可制度“暂缓一年，期间重新评估该制度”。贝森特还称，中国还同意协助美国阻止制造非法芬太尼所需化学原料的流通，并“向美国农民大量采购农产品”。

On social media, Brooke Rollins, the secretary of agriculture, praised the planned soybean purchases as “big news.” She added, “China’s commitment to make substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans brings the market BACK into balance and secures years of prosperity for American producers.”

美国农业部长布鲁克·罗林斯在社交媒体上称赞拟议中的大豆采购计划是“大新闻”。她还说：“中国承诺大量采购美国大豆，将使市场恢复平衡，并为美国生产者确保未来数年的繁荣。”

But critics said the Trump administration appeared to be claiming credit for solving a crisis of its own making. China stopped its soybean purchases earlier this year, after it put a tariff on American soybeans in retaliation for the tariffs Mr. Trump had placed on Chinese products in April.

但批评人士指出，特朗普政府似乎是在为解决自己制造的危机邀功。今年4月，特朗普对中国商品加征关税后，中国采取反制措施，对美国大豆加征关税，随后便停止了大豆采购。

The Chinese government had clearly been developing its licensing system for rare earths for some time, and it introduced its first measures in December in response to technology restrictions from the Biden administration. But it greatly enlarged the system following Mr. Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, then further expanded it this month, after the United States put new restrictions on providing technology to thousands of additional Chinese companies.

中国政府酝酿稀土许可制度显然已有了一段时间。为回应拜登政府的技术限制措施，中国在去年12月首次出台相关措施；今年4月特朗普实施大规模“解放日”关税后，中国大幅扩大了该制度的适用范围；本月，在美国对数千家中国企业新增技术供应限制后，中国再次扩大了该制度。

Paul Triolo, a partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, a consultancy, said the Trump administration had been pursuing a policy of “escalating to de-escalate,” which he called “a losing strategy.” He pointed out that this was the fifth meeting of trade talks that had been dominated by China’s curbs on rare earths.

咨询公司DGA-奥尔布赖特石桥集团合伙人保罗·特里奥洛表示，特朗普政府一直在推行“以升级求降级”的政策，他认为这是“一种失败的策略”。他指出，此次已是围绕中国稀土限制展开的第五轮贸易谈判。

“Both sides can hurt each other,” Mr. Triolo said. “All it’s done is reduce market share for companies across the board.”

“双方都有能力伤害对方，”特里奥洛说，“目前的做法只会让所有企业的市场份额全面缩水。”

Mr. Trump’s deal-making is famously unpredictable, and his meeting with Mr. Xi could result in other deals. Chinese officials have floated the possibility of more substantial purchases of U.S. products, as well as greater Chinese investment in the United States. In another interview, on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Mr. Bessent said the two sides would probably discuss “more balanced trade,” geopolitical relations in the Middle East and Asia, and the conflict in Ukraine.

特朗普的谈判风格以不可预测著称，他与习近平的会面可能还会促成其他协议。中国官员已提出可能进一步大量采购美国商品，并增加在美投资。在NBC《与媒体见面》节目采访中，贝森特表示，双方可能会讨论“更平衡的贸易关系”、中东和亚洲的地缘政治关系，以及乌克兰冲突等问题。

Markets have jumped at the news of a potential deal. But talks have been much less intensive than in Mr. Trump’s first term, when negotiators went back and forth for months to hammer out a 90-page trade agreement on issues ranging from intellectual property and banking to agriculture. On Friday, the Trump administration said it was beginning an investigation into China’s failure to comply with the terms of that agreement.

潜在协议的消息传出后，市场反应积极。但目前谈判的密集程度远不及特朗普第一任期——当时谈判代表耗时数月反复磋商，最终敲定了一份90页的贸易协议，内容涵盖知识产权、银行业、农业等多个领域。周五，特朗普政府表示，已启动调查，确认中国是否违反该协议条款。

Jonathan A. Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, pointed out that Mr. Xi was coming to the meeting after announcing China’s next five-year plan, which calls for intensifying the country’s focus on manufacturing and technology. Those plans run counter to longstanding American concerns about China’s trade practices, which ostensibly started their trade clash, he said. But those topics appeared absent from the agenda.

华盛顿智库布鲁金斯学会研究员乔纳森·钦指出，习近平此次参会前，中国已公布了下一个五年规划，其中明确要求国家更加集中关注制造业和科技领域。他表示，这些规划与美国长期以来对中国贸易做法的担忧背道而驰，而这些担忧正是中美贸易冲突的表面起因。但这些议题似乎并未出现在此次谈判议程中。

“It’s really striking to me that, not only are they not even discussing it, we’re discussing one issue at a time,” Mr. Czin said. “We’re talking about TikTok, or about soybeans, these kind of sectoral or even firm-specific issues, rather than talking about the big, meaty, substantive issue that may have been at the heart of this at the outset.”

“令我感到震惊的是，双方不仅没有讨论这些核心问题，反而只是在逐个谈具体议题，”钦说，“我们在谈TikTok，谈大豆，都是这类特定行业甚至特定企业的问题，而非最初可能引发这场冲突的实质性核心问题。”

Compared with Mr. Trump’s first term, both Washington and Beijing have been more willing to take dramatic actions against each other, to the detriment of companies that depend on the trading relationship. In Mr. Trump’s first-term trade war with China, he imposed tariffs of up to 25 percent on just a portion of China’s exports.

与特朗普第一任期相比，如今的美中两国更愿意对彼此采取激进措施，这损害了依赖两国贸易关系的企业利益。在特朗普第一任期的对华贸易战中，他仅对部分中国出口商品加征了最高25%的关税。

This time, in his first months in office, Mr. Trump put a 20 percent tariff on all Chinese exports, in return for the country’s role in channeling fentanyl to the United States. He added another 125 percent tariff that he later dropped to 10 percent. The administration has also placed fees on Chinese ships that dock in American harbors, expanded its technology controls, and threatened an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods as of Nov. 1.

而此次，特朗普在就职后的最初几个月里就以中国涉芬太尼问题为由，对所有中国出口商品加征20%关税；之后又追加125%关税，后来降至10%。特朗普政府还对停靠美国港口的中国船只征收费用，扩大技术管控范围，并威胁自11月1日起对中国商品额外加征100%关税。

While most foreign governments have not retaliated against Mr. Trump’s aggressive trade policy, China has been an exception. Beijing responded to Mr. Trump’s measures with its own tariffs on U.S. exports, including soybeans. It also announced investigations into prominent companies based in the United States, like Nvidia and Qualcomm, and an “anti-discrimination” probe that could result in actions against American firms, in addition to the rare earths curbs.

尽管大多数国家政府未对特朗普激进的贸易政策采取反制措施，但中国是个例外。为回应特朗普的举措，北京对包括大豆在内的美国出口商品加征关税；宣布调查英伟达、高通等美国知名企业；启动可能对美企采取行动的“反歧视”调查；此外还实施了稀土限制措施。

American companies have been caught in the middle. Industry analysts say some factories are weeks away from stopping production if they do not receive more shipments of Chinese rare earth metals and magnets. And some firms worry that conflicting laws and directives from Beijing and Washington prevent them from complying with both.

美国企业被夹在中间。行业分析师表示，若无法获得更多中国稀土金属和磁体供应，部分工厂可能在几周内停产。一些企业担忧，中美两国相互冲突的法律和指令，让它们无法同时遵守双方规定。

Evan Medeiros, a professor at Georgetown University and a senior adviser at the Asia Group, said Chinese officials believed that they understood Mr. Trump better than in the first administration and knew how to retaliate more effectively.

乔治城大学教授、亚洲集团高级顾问麦艾文(Evan Medeiros)表示，中国官员认为自己比在特朗普第一任期时更了解这位总统，也知道如何更有效地采取反制措施。

The willingness of both the United States and China to take aggressive actions against each other was resulting in an “inherently unstable” situation that could undermine a truce, he said.

他指出，美中两国都有意愿对彼此采取激进措施，这导致局势“本质上不稳定”，可能会破坏休战状态。

“Both sides are approaching the relationship with confidence. Both sides believe that the other needs them more than they do. And ultimately, both sides believe that they have an upper hand,” Mr. Medeiros said. It was, he said, “a very, very dangerous place to be.”

“双方都带着自信对待这段关系，都认为对方比己方更需要这段关系，最终都认为自己占据优势，”麦艾文说。“这种局面非常、非常危险。”