For President Trump, anytime is a good time for deal-making, but never more so than now with the leaders of China and Russia.

对特朗普总统来说，虽然任何时候都是做交易的好时候，但就与中俄领导人做交易而言，没有比现在更好的时候。

Last week, Mr. Trump said he wanted to normalize commerce with Russia, appearing to lessen the pressure on Moscow to settle its war with Ukraine. And he is trying to limit the fallout from his own global trade war by urging China’s leader to call him.

上周，特朗普说他想与俄罗斯恢复贸易正常化，似乎有意减轻莫斯科在结束乌克兰战争上面临的压力。同时，他试图通过敦促中国领导人与他通话来限制他自己发动的全球贸易战带来的不良后果。

“We all want to make deals,” Mr. Trump said in a recent interview with Time magazine. “But I am this giant store. It’s a giant, beautiful store, and everybody wants to go shopping there.”

“大家都想做交易，”特朗普最近在接受《时代》杂志采访时说。“但我是一家巨大的商店。一家巨大、美丽的商店，每个人都想进来买东西。”

Mr. Trump may have something even bigger in mind involving Russia and China, and it would be the ultimate deal.

涉及俄罗斯和中国时，特朗普心目中也许有一个更大的计划，那或许是终极交易。

His actions and statements suggest he might be envisioning a world in which each of the three so-called great powers — the United States, China and Russia — dominates its part of the globe, some foreign policy analysts say.

一些外交政策分析人士认为，他的行动和言论暗示，他也许正在构想一个由三个所谓的大国——美国、中国、俄罗斯——各自雄踞一方的世界格局。

It would be a throwback to a 19th-century style of imperial rule.

这会回到19世纪的帝国统治模式。

Mr. Trump has said he wants to take Greenland from Denmark, annex Canada and re-establish American control of the Panama Canal. Those bids to extend U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere are the clearest signs yet of his desire to create a sphere of influence in the nation’s backyard.

特朗普曾经扬言，他想从丹麦手中夺走格陵兰岛，吞并加拿大，并重掌对巴拿马运河的控制。这些扩大美国在西半球主导地位的企图，是迄今为止他渴望在美国后院建立势力范围的最清晰的迹象。

美国副总统万斯和夫人乌莎·万斯今年3月参观了位于格陵兰岛的美军皮图费克太空基地。特朗普总统已表示，他想从丹麦手中接管格陵兰岛。

He has criticized allies and talked about withdrawing U.S. troops from around the globe. That could benefit Russia and China, which seek to diminish the American security presence in Europe and Asia. Mr. Trump often praises President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping, China’s leader, as strong and smart men who are his close friends.

他屡屡批评盟友，并多次提及将美军从全球各地撤走。这样可能会让俄罗斯和中国受益，这两个国家正在试图削弱美国在欧洲和亚洲的安全存在。特朗普经常称赞俄罗斯总统普京和中国领导人习近平，称他们是强人、聪明人，是自己的亲密朋友。

To that end, Mr. Trump has been trying to formalize Russian control of some Ukrainian territory — and American access to Ukraine’s minerals — as part of a potential peace deal that critics say would effectively carve up Ukraine, similar to what great powers did in the age of empires. Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin spoke about Ukraine in a two-hour phone call on last week.

为此，特朗普试图让俄罗斯正式控制乌克兰部分领土，同时让美国获取乌克兰的矿产资源，作为一个潜在和平协议的内容，批评人士称，这在实质上将导致乌克兰被瓜分，类似于大国在帝国时代的列强做法。特朗普和普京上周就乌克兰问题进行了长达两小时的通话。

“The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media.

“通话的基调和氛围都非常好，”特朗普在社交媒体上写道。

Monica Duffy Toft, a professor of international politics at Tufts University’s Fletcher School, said that the leaders of the United States, Russia and China are all striving for “an imaginary past that was freer and more glorious.”

塔夫茨大学弗莱彻学院国际政治学教授莫妮卡·达菲·托夫特说，美俄中领导人都在追寻“一个更自由、更辉煌的虚幻过去”。

“Commanding and extending spheres of influence appears to restore a fading sense of grandeur,” she wrote in a new essay in Foreign Affairs magazine. The term “spheres of influence” originated at the Berlin Conference of 1884-5, in which European powers adopted a formal plan to carve up Africa.

“主导和扩大势力范围好像能唤回逐渐消失的辉煌感，”托夫特在《外交事务》杂志新发表的一篇文章中写道。“势力范围”一词起源于1884-1885年的柏林会议，欧洲列强在那次会议上制定了瓜分非洲的正式方案。

Some close observers of Mr. Trump, including officials from his first administration, caution against thinking his actions and statements are strategic. While Mr. Trump might have strong, long-held attitudes about a handful of issues, notably immigration and trade, he does not have a vision of a world order, they argue.

一些密切观察特朗普的人士，包括曾在他的第一届政府担任官员的人警告说，不要认为他的言行是一种战略考量。他们认为，尽管特朗普在一些议题上抱持强烈且持久的立场，特别是移民和贸易问题，但他并没有一个关于世界秩序的总体构想。

Yet there are signs that Mr. Trump and perhaps some of his aides are thinking in the manner that emperors once did when they conceived of spheres of influence.

不过，也有迹象表明，特朗普以及部分幕僚正在用昔日帝王们构想势力范围的方式思考。

“The best evidence is Trump’s desire to expand America’s overt sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere,” said Stephen Wertheim, a historian of U.S. foreign policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“最有力的证据就是，特朗普想要在西半球扩大美国的公开势力范围，”在卡内基国际和平基金会研究美国外交政策的历史学家斯蒂芬·沃特海姆说。

But setting up a sphere of influence in the post-imperial age is not easy, even for a superpower.

但即便是超级大国，在后帝国时代建立势力范围也并不容易。

Last month, Canadians elected an anti-Trump prime minister, Mark Carney, whose Liberal Party appeared destined to lose the election until Mr. Trump talked aggressively about Canada. Leaders of Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, have rejected the idea of U.S. control. Chinese officials are threatening to stop a Hong Kong company from selling its business running two ports in the Panama Canal to American investors.

上个月，加拿大选出了一名反特朗普的总理马克·卡尼，他领导的自由党原本败局已定，直到特朗普对加拿大发表咄咄逼人的言论。丹麦自治领地格陵兰岛的领导人已拒绝了美国控制的想法。中国官员正在发出威胁，要阻止一家香港公司把其在巴拿马运河两个港口拥有的股份出售给美国的投资者。

加拿大总理马克·卡尼在今年4月的大选日晚庆祝胜利。他领导的自由党曾似乎注定会输掉大选，直到特朗普对加拿大发表了一些咄咄逼人的言论。

“China will not give up its stakes in the Western Hemisphere so easily without a fight,” said Yun Sun, a China analyst at the Stimson Center in Washington.

“中国不会放弃自己在西半球的利益，不会对这件事等闲视之，”华盛顿史汀生中心的中国问题分析师孙韵说。

Even so, Mr. Trump and his aides persist in trying to exert greater American influence from the Arctic Circle to South America’s Patagonia region. When Mr. Carney told Mr. Trump this month in the Oval Office that Canada was “not for sale,” Mr. Trump replied: “Never say never.”

尽管如此，特朗普及其幕僚仍执着于从北极圈到南美洲巴塔哥尼亚地区扩张美国的影响力。本月，卡尼在椭圆形办公室里对特朗普说，加拿大是“非卖品”，特朗普回答说：“没有不可能的事。”

In March, Vice President JD Vance visited a U.S. military base in Greenland to reiterate Mr. Trump’s desire to take the territory.

今年3月，美国副总统万斯访问了格陵兰岛的一个美国军事基地，重申了特朗普想占有格陵兰岛的愿望。

And it is no coincidence that Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s two most substantial trips since taking office have been to Latin America and the Caribbean.

美国国务卿马可·鲁比奥上任以来的两次最重要出访都选择去了拉丁美洲和加勒比地区，这更非偶然。

In El Salvador, Mr. Rubio negotiated with Nayib Bukele, the strongman leader, to have the nation imprison immigrants deported by the U.S. government, setting up what is effectively an American penal colony. Mr. Rubio also pressed Panama on its ports.

在萨尔瓦多，鲁比奥与该国强人领导者纳伊布·布克尔举行谈判，促成在那里监禁被美国政府驱逐的移民，实际上等于在那里设立一个美国的罪犯流放地。鲁比奥还在港口问题上向巴拿马施压。

As a senator representing Florida, Mr. Rubio said at a hearing in July 2022 that focusing more closely on the Western Hemisphere was “critical to our national security and our national economic interests.”

鲁比奥曾任佛罗里达州的联邦参议员，他曾在2022年7月的一个听证会上说，更密切地关注西半球“对我们的国家安全和国家经济利益至关重要”。

“Geography matters,” he said, because “proximity matters.”

“地理事关紧要，”他说，因为“距离事关紧要”。

During that trip to the region, Mr. Rubio was asked by a reporter whether administration officials had discussed setting up spheres of influence, which would entail negotiating limits on each superpower’s footprint, including in Asia.

在那次访问该地区期间，一名记者问鲁比奥，政府官员是否已讨论过建立势力范围，那将涉及对每个超级大国的势力范围进行限制的谈判，包括在亚洲。

Mr. Rubio, who has more conventional foreign policy views than Mr. Trump, asserted that the United States would maintain its military alliances in Asia. Those alliances allow it to base troops across the region.

鲁比奥曾坚称美国会维持自己在亚洲的军事联盟，他的外交政策观点比特朗普更传统。这些联盟使美国能在亚洲各地部署军队。

“We don’t talk about spheres of influence,” he said. “The United States is an Indo-Pacific nation. We have relationships with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines. We’re going to continue those relationships.”

“我们不谈论势力范围，”他说。“美国是一个印太国家。我们与日本、韩国、菲律宾都有关系。我们将继续维持这些关系。”

美国国务卿鲁比奥今年2月与萨尔瓦多总统纳伊布·布克尔见面，进行了让萨尔瓦多监禁被美国政府驱逐的移民的谈判。

Some analysts say Mr. Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine is consistent with the concept of spheres of influence. The United States is talking to another large power — Russia — about how to define the borders of a smaller country and is itself trying to control natural resources.

一些分析人士认为，特朗普对俄乌战争的态度与势力范围的概念相符。美国正在与另一个大国——俄罗斯——就如何划定一个较小国家的边界​​进行谈判，而美国自己也在试图控制（这个小国的）自然资源。

Mr. Trump has proposed terms of a settlement that would mostly benefit Russia, including U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and acknowledgment of Russian occupation of large swaths of eastern Ukraine. This week, Mr. Trump even seemed to back off his demand that Russia agree to an immediate cease-fire with Ukraine. Earlier, he got Ukraine to sign an agreement to give American companies access to the country’s minerals.

特朗普提出的停战条款明显有利于俄罗斯，包括美国承认俄罗斯对克里米亚的主权，承认俄罗斯在乌克兰东部占领的大片地区。本周，特朗普甚至似乎放弃了对俄罗斯在乌克兰立即停火的要求。他曾在早些时候让乌克兰签署一项协议，允许美国公司开采该国的矿产资源。

Supporters of Mr. Trump’s settlement proposal say it reflects the reality on the ground, as Ukraine struggles to oust the Russian occupiers.

支持特朗普解决方案的人说，该方案反映了乌军难以驱逐俄占军的现实状况。

But Mr. Trump’s praise of Mr. Putin and of Russia, and his persistent skepticism of America’s role in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has inflamed anxieties among European nations over a potentially waning U.S. presence in their geographic sphere.

但特朗普对普京和俄罗斯的赞扬，以及他对美国在北约作用的持续怀疑，已加剧了欧洲国家对美国在欧洲地理范围内的影响力可能减弱的担忧。

The same is true of Taiwan and Asian security. Mr. Trump has voiced enough criticism of the island over the years, and showered enough accolades on Mr. Xi, China’s leader, that Taiwanese and U.S. officials wonder whether he would waver on U.S. arms support for Taiwan, which is mandated by a congressional act.

在台湾和亚洲的安全问题上也存在类似担忧。特朗普多年来对台湾提出了足够多的批评，对中国领导人习近平进行了足够多的赞扬，这让台湾和美国的官员想知道，特朗普是否会在国会一项方案所要求的美国对台军售问题上动摇。

Mr. Trump says he wants to reach a deal with China. Whether that would go beyond tariffs to address issues such as Taiwan and the U.S. military presence in Asia is an open question.

特朗普说，他想与中国做成交易。除关税外，交易是否会涉及台湾以及美国在亚洲的军事存在等问题，目前无人知晓。

“Beijing would love to have a grand bargain with the U.S. on spheres of influence,” Ms. Sun said, and “its first and foremost focus will be on Taiwan.”

孙韵表示，“中国政府很想与美国在势力范围问题上做一笔大交易”，而且“对中国来说，首要问题将是台湾”。

Trump administration officials have not detailed how far the United States would go to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. At his confirmation hearing, Elbridge A. Colby, the under secretary of defense for policy, was asked by Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, why Mr. Colby’s stance on defending Taiwan appeared to have “softened” recently.

特朗普政府官员还没有明确说明，万一中国入侵台湾，美国在协防台湾上会走多远。美国国防部负责政策的副部长是埃尔布里奇·科尔比，阿肯色州的联邦参议员、共和党人汤姆·科顿曾在科尔比的确认听证会上问后者，为什么他保卫台湾的立场最近似乎有所“软化”。

Mr. Colby said Taiwan was “not an existential interest” for the United States, and affirmed a vague commitment to Asia: “It’s very important the core American interest is in denying China regional hegemony.”

科尔比说，对美国利益来说，台湾“不是一个存亡问题”，他重申了对亚洲含糊其辞的一个承诺：“阻止中国在该地区称霸，对美国的核心利益非常重要。”