President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia shocked the audience at the annual security conference in Munich in 2007 by demanding the rollback of domineering American influence and a new balance of power in Europe more suitable to Moscow.

2007年，在慕尼黑举行的年度安全会议上，俄罗斯总统普京要求削弱美国的霸道影响，在欧洲建立更适合莫斯科的力量新平衡，这让听众感到震惊。

He didn’t get what he wanted — then.

当时，他没有得到自己想要的东西。

Nearly two decades later, during the very same conference, top officials from President Trump’s cabinet made one thing clear: Mr. Putin has found an American administration that might help him realize his dream.

近20年后，在同一场会议上，特朗普总统内阁的高级官员明确表达了一件事：普京找到了一个也许能帮助他实现梦想的美国政府。

Comments by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance raised fears among attendees that under the new administration the United States might align with Russia and either assail Europe or abandon it altogether.

美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯和副总统JD·万斯的言论令与会者担心，在新政府领导下，美国可能与俄罗斯结盟，要么攻击欧洲，要么完全放弃欧洲。

Such a shift, analysts say, would give Mr. Putin a previously unthinkable victory far more momentous for him than any objectives in Ukraine.

分析人士说，这样的转变将给普京带来以前无法想象的胜利，对他来说，这比在乌克兰的任何目标都要重要得多。

“Since the dawn of the Cold War in the late 1940s, the Kremlin has dreamed of pushing America out of its role as the cornerstone of European security,” said Andrew S. Weiss, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Putin surely is savvy enough to pounce on any openings provided by the new administration.”

“自20世纪40年代末冷战开始以来，克里姆林宫一直梦想着把美国从欧洲安全基石的地位上推下去，”卡内基国际和平基金会负责研究的副会长安德鲁·韦斯说。“普京当然很精明，他会抓住新政府提供的任何机会。”

美国副总统JD·万斯周五出席慕尼黑安全会议。他的讲话表明与作为传统盟友的欧洲国家相比，美国可能更愿意与俄罗斯合作。

The presence of American troops has been the underpinning of 80 years of peace in Western Europe since the end of World War II. But in a speech in Warsaw on Friday, before his arrival at the conference, Mr. Hegseth warned European leaders they shouldn’t assume that the United States will be there forever.

二战结束以来，美国军队的存在一直是西欧80年和平的基础。但在上周五在华沙的演讲中，海格塞斯警告欧洲领导人他们不应该想当然地认为美国将会永远留在这里。

Later in the day, at the Munich conference, Mr. Vance delivered an even scarier message for many European attendees: The enemy he sees isn’t Russia or China, but Europe itself.

当天晚些时候，在慕尼黑会议上，万斯向许多欧洲与会者传达了一个更可怕的信息：他眼中的敌人不是俄罗斯或中国，而是欧洲本身。

Mr. Vance set about attacking European nations for using what he called undemocratic methods to restrain far-right parties that in some cases have been backed by Russia. He argued that the continent needed to recognize the desires of its voters, stop attempting to moderate disinformation in undemocratic ways and instead allow such parties to thrive as the will of the people.

万斯攻击欧洲国家使用他所称的不民主的方法来限制极右翼政党，其中的某些政党得到了俄罗斯的支持。他认为，欧洲大陆需要认识到选民的愿望，停止试图以不民主的方式缓和虚假信息，并允许这些政党按照人民的意愿茁壮成长。

“If you’re running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you,” Mr. Vance said. “Nor, for that matter, is there anything that you can do for the American people who elected me and elected President Trump.”

“如果你在竞选时惧怕自己的选民，美国就无能为力了，”万斯说。“在这个问题上，你也无法为选举我和选举特朗普总统的美国人民做任何事情。”

Mr. Vance hit out in particular at Romania, where the country’s constitutional court in December canceled a presidential election that an ultranationalist backed by an apparent Russian influence campaign looked poised to win. The election has been rescheduled for May.

万斯特别抨击了罗马尼亚，该国宪法法院去年12月取消了一场总统选举，当时一名明显受到俄罗斯影响运动支持的极端民族主义者似乎即将获胜。选举已改在5月举行。

“If your democracy can be destroyed with a few hundred thousand dollars of digital advertising from a foreign country, then it wasn’t very strong to begin with,” he said.

“如果你的民主可以被外国几十万美元的数字广告摧毁，那么它从一开始就不是很强大，”他说。

上个月在布加勒斯特举行的集会上，在罗马尼亚总统选举第一轮中领先的卡林·乔治斯库的支持者。

The Kremlin for years has sought to weaken Europe by boosting parties that Mr. Vance argued must be allowed to flourish. The same day as his remarks at the conference, Mr. Vance met with the leader of Germany’s extreme right movement, which is contesting national elections this month, boosting a party Russia has sought to legitimize.

多年来，克里姆林宫正是试图支持那些万斯认为应该被允许发展壮大的政党，来达到削弱欧洲的目的。在讲话的同一天，万斯会见了正在竞逐本月全国大选的德国极右翼运动的领导人，一个俄罗斯寻求扶持的政党得到他的助威。

Moscow has also sought to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe, realizing that a destruction of the longstanding Euro-Atlantic alliance from within would lead to a world where Moscow can wield far more power.

莫斯科还试图离间美国和欧洲，因为它意识到，从内部破坏长期存在的欧洲-大西洋联盟将带来一个莫斯科可以行使更大权力的世界。

Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute for International Affairs in Rome, watched Mr. Vance’s speech and interpreted the message as a direct threat by the United States to the European Union, which far-right Europeans and the Kremlin both seek to dismantle. She called it a plot twist by the United States.

罗马国际事务研究所所长娜塔莉·托奇观看了万斯的演讲，并将其解读为美国对欧盟的直接威胁，而欧洲极右翼和克里姆林宫都在寻求瓦解欧盟。她称这是美国的一个情节大逆转。

“The plot is we are out there to destroy you,” Ms. Tocci said.

“现在的打算是‘我们要摧毁你们’，”托奇说。

“The point is not even Ukraine,” she added. “The point is the deliberate weakening, if not destruction, of Europe, of which Ukraine is a part.”

“问题甚至不在于乌克兰，”她还说。“关键在于蓄意削弱甚至摧毁欧洲，而乌克兰是欧洲的一部分。”

Ms. Tocci described Mr. Vance’s remarks as an attack on European democracy that perversely twisted the language of democracy itself, the way Russia often does when seeking to sow division within Europe.

托奇称万斯的言论是对欧洲民主的攻击，反常地歪曲了民主的语言本身，俄罗斯在寻求在欧洲内部播下分裂的种子时，也经常会这么做。

A dramatic reorganization of power in Europe seemed like a pipe dream for Mr. Putin back when he articulated his vision in 2007 at the Munich conference. Robert M. Gates, the American defense secretary at the time, sat in the audience and later dismissed the remarks as a throwback to the Cold War.

2007年，当普京在慕尼黑会议上阐明自己的愿景时，欧洲戏剧性的权力重组似乎只是他的白日梦。当时的美国国防部长罗伯特·盖茨也坐在观众席上，后来他将这些言论斥为向冷战时期倒退。

The Russian leader, however, has stuck unbendingly to his vision, making it a central point of his argument in the months leading to the war: that the West must be willing to discuss not just Ukrainian sovereignty but the whole security apparatus of Europe, which he claimed omitted Moscow and put it at existential risk.

然而，这位俄罗斯领导人不为所动，一直坚持自己的观点，在俄乌战争爆发前的几个月里，他把这个观点作为自己论点的中心：西方必须愿意讨论的，不仅仅是乌克兰的主权，而是整个欧洲的安全体制。他声称，欧洲的安全体制忽略了莫斯科，使其面临生存风险。

11月，乌克兰军队准备向乌克兰波克罗夫斯克附近的俄罗斯阵地开火。

Mr. Putin has cast his invasion of Ukraine as a broader battle against the West and the woke values he portrays as anathema, some of the same arguments Mr. Trump and Europe’s extreme-right leaders have made to wrest power in their own countries.

普京把他对乌克兰的入侵说成是一场针对西方的更广泛的战争，也针对被他描绘为令人厌恶的觉醒价值观，特朗普和欧洲极右翼领导人在本国夺取权力时也提出了一些同样的论点。

Mr. Putin believed that ultimately the United States and Europe would bend to him, Alexander Baunov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote in a recent analysis.

卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心研究员亚历山大·鲍诺夫在前不久的分析报告中写道，普京认为，美国和欧洲最终会向他屈服。

The United States is changing, Mr. Baunov wrote, and the current Washington “is getting closer to Moscow not for the sake of Europe, but for its own sake — and even a little to spite Europe.”

鲍诺夫写道，美国正在发生变化，现在的华盛顿“不是为了欧洲，而是为了美国自己——甚至对欧洲还有一点恶意——才和莫斯科走得更近。”

The challenge to Europe comes as Germany and France, the European Union’s two biggest countries, both are suffering from crises of leadership, in part because of surging political movements brandishing the same rhetoric as Mr. Trump. In 2015, Germany and France took the lead in negotiating an end to Mr. Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine.

欧洲面临挑战之际，欧盟最大的两个国家德国和法国都遭遇了领导力危机，部分原因是与特朗普言论相同的政治运动不断涌现。2015年，德国和法国领导谈判，结束了普京对乌克兰的首次入侵。

The United Kingdom, which left the European Union owing to a campaign Mr. Trump publicly backed, has seen its influence on the continent significantly weakened.

英国在特朗普公开支持的一场运动之下退出欧盟，如今在欧洲大陆的影响力已大大削弱。

How far Mr. Trump’s deal-making with Mr. Putin will go is unclear, and the nascent rapprochement between Washington and Moscow could easily evaporate during negotiations over Ukraine, which are set to begin with a meeting between American and Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia this week.

特朗普与普京达成的协议能走多远，目前尚不清楚，华盛顿和莫斯科之间刚刚出现的和解很可能在乌克兰问题的谈判中烟消云散，谈判将从美国和俄罗斯代表本周在沙特阿拉伯举行的会议开始。

But foreign leaders have managed to woo Mr. Trump into positions favorable to them before, and so far Russia is reaping benefits from the new administration.

但外国领导人以前也曾设法向特朗普示好，让他采取对自己有利的立场，而到目前为止，俄罗斯正从新政府中获得好处。

2019年特朗普首次担任总统期间，普京和特朗普在日本大阪举行的二十国集团峰会上会面。

The Kremlin has racked up a series of victories since Mr. Trump returned to the White House.

自特朗普重返白宫以来，克里姆林宫取得了一系列胜利。

Less than a month into his second term, Mr. Trump has eviscerated U.S.A.I.D., the U.S. foreign aid agency long reviled by Moscow. He has pushed through cabinet officials who regularly traffic in Kremlin talking points, including the new head of U.S. intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. He has exacerbated the discord in relations with Europe, threatening Washington’s closest allies with a trade war. He has empowered and elevated Elon Musk, who spreads falsehoods beneficial to Moscow on X and publicly advocated in favor of Germany’s far-right movement.

特朗普第二任期开始不到一个月，就彻底削弱了美国对外援助机构美国国际开发署，该机构长期受到莫斯科诟病。他提拔经常传播克里姆林宫谈话要点的内阁官员，其中包括情报机构新任负责人塔尔西·加巴德。他加剧了与欧洲关系的不和，以贸易战威胁华盛顿最亲密的盟友。他让埃隆·马斯克获得权力和地位，后者在X上散布有利于莫斯科的谎言，并公开支持德国的极右翼运动。

Mr. Trump will now influence, possibly without European leaders present, how the biggest conflict on the continent since World War II gets resolved, with implications that could go beyond Ukraine itself to affect the broader security balance in Europe.

如今，特朗普可能会在没有欧洲领导人在场的情况下影响欧洲大陆自二战以来最大的冲突的解决方式，其影响可能会超出乌克兰本身，影响欧洲更广泛的安全平衡。

Those leaders, who see insurgent right-wing populist movements as a threat to the European Union and freedom on the continent, are worried, particularly given the apparent alignment of Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin against them.

这些欧洲领导人将右翼民粹主义运动视为对欧盟和欧洲大陆自由的威胁，他们对此感到担忧，尤其是考虑到特朗普和普京明显一致反对他们。

“This is the moment in which we are at our most vulnerable,” Ms. Tocci said.

“这是我们最脆弱的时刻，”托奇说。

“If ultimately what you are trying to do is destroy this project,” she added, referring to the E.U., “this is the moment to do it.”

“如果你们最终想要做的是摧毁这项事业，”她还说，“现在正是时候，”其中的事业指的是欧盟。