
President Trump said on Tuesday that the United States would wrap up its military campaign in Iran in two or three weeks, and the White House said he would address the nation about the war on Wednesday evening.
特朗普总统周二表示,美国将在两到三周内结束对伊朗的军事行动,白宫同时宣布,总统将于周三晚间就这场战争向全国发表讲话。
“We will be leaving very soon,” Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
“我们很快就会撤军,”特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室对记者表示。
It was not immediately clear what message Mr. Trump intended to deliver in his national address, and he has left open the potential for escalating military action. But he and top aides have increasingly been suggesting that he sees justification for claiming to have achieved his main objectives and would like to extricate the United States from the conflict.
目前尚不清楚特朗普打算在全国讲话中传递何种信息,他也并未排除军事行动升级的可能性。但他与高层幕僚近期频频表示,他认为已有足够理由宣称已实现主要目标,并希望让美国从这场冲突中抽身。
Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said Mr. Trump would be providing “an important update” on the war.
白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特表示,特朗普将就这场战争发布“重要进展通报”。
Mr. Trump told reporters that he had attained his goal of dealing with Iran’s nuclear program and that gasoline prices in the United States would come down as soon as the United States ended the conflict, which he said would be soon. Dealing with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, choking off the global energy trade, was a problem for other countries to deal with, Mr. Trump said.
特朗普对记者称,他已经达成了应对伊朗核计划的目标,并称美国一旦结束这场冲突——他表示这很快就会发生——美国国内的汽油价格就会回落。他还表示,霍尔木兹海峡实质关停导致全球能源贸易受阻的问题,应该由其他国家来解决。
In a video published on Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio sought to make the case that Mr. Trump had succeeded in his primary goal of keeping Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon. But Mr. Rubio’s argument was built on the assertion that degrading Iran’s conventional weapons was enough to keep Tehran from building a bomb.
在周二发布的一段视频中,国务卿鲁比奥竭力论证,特朗普已经达成了阻止伊朗制造核武器的首要目标。但鲁比奥的论断建立在削弱伊朗常规武器力量就足以阻止德黑兰制造核弹这一前提之上。
“That is the goal of this operation, to destroy their conventional missiles and their drone program so they can’t hide behind it,” Mr. Rubio said.
“本次行动的目标,就是摧毁他们的常规导弹和无人机项目,让他们无法再以此为掩护,”鲁比奥说。
霍尔木兹海峡的实质性封锁已导致全球能源贸易陷入瘫痪。
But even as the administration sent signals of de-escalation, Mr. Trump has left open the possibility of military escalation as U.S. forces continue to reach the region.
但即便政府释放了局势降级的信号,随着美军持续向该地区部署,特朗普仍未排除军事升级的可能性。
While Mr. Trump has touted that the military has hit more than 11,000 targets, Iran still has near-bomb-grade nuclear material at the Isfahan site. The president is weighing whether to approve a risky operation to seize or destroy the material.
尽管特朗普大肆宣扬美军已打击了超过1.1万个目标,但伊朗在伊斯法罕核设施内仍储存着接近武器级的核材料。目前总统正在权衡,是否批准一项高风险行动,以夺取或销毁这批核材料。
Mr. Trump has also floated the idea of invading or attacking Kharg Island, the heart of Iran’s oil export capacity in the Persian Gulf, or seizing other islands in the gulf to help restore the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has used as a choke point for Middle East oil shipments.
特朗普还提出其他构想——入侵或袭击伊朗在波斯湾的石油出口核心哈尔克岛,或是夺取波斯湾内的其他岛屿,以此推动恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航运通行。伊朗一直将这条海峡作为阻断中东石油运输的咽喉要道。
At the same time, Mr. Trump continues to suggest that a negotiated settlement with Tehran is possible, though not necessary for the United States to step back from the war that it has been waging alongside Israel for the last month.
与此同时,特朗普仍表示,有可能与德黑兰通过谈判达成和解,不过对于美国而言,想要从这场与以色列联合发动、已持续一个月的战争中抽身,谈判并不是必需的。
But Mr. Trump has yet to fully achieve many of the goals he set out when he entered the conflict, including ousting the theocratic government in Iran and ensuring that it could never achieve a nuclear weapon. Nor has he resolved problems created by the war, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the increased regional instability caused by Iran’s missile attacks on neighboring countries.
但特朗普当初宣布介入冲突时定下的诸多目标,至今仍未完全实现,包括推翻伊朗的神权政府、确保伊朗永远无法获得核武器。他也未能解决这场战争引发的一系列问题,包括霍尔木兹海峡实质关停,以及伊朗对邻国发动导弹袭击所导致的地区动荡加剧。
Mr. Rubio on Monday stated four goals for the war in interviews with ABC News and Al Jazeera. An official State Department account posted on social media a video clip from one of the interviews and a bullet-point list of the goals, saying: “You should write them down.”
周一,鲁比奥在接受ABC新闻与半岛电视台采访时列出了这场战争的四大目标。美国国务院官方账号在社交媒体上发布了其中一段采访的视频片段以及目标要点清单,并配文:“建议你们记下来。”
The goals were the destruction of Iran’s air force, the destruction of its navy, the “severe diminishing” of its capability to launch missiles, and the destruction of its factories.
这四大目标分别是:摧毁伊朗空军、摧毁伊朗海军、“大幅削弱”伊朗的导弹发射能力,以及摧毁伊朗的工厂。
Absent from the list are some of the goals that Mr. Trump has stated recently: “regime change,” seizing Iran’s oil, forcing the Iranian military to allow ships through the Strait of Hormuz and completely eradicating Iran’s nuclear program, which includes stockpiles of highly enriched uranium buried in underground sites that were struck by American bombs last summer.
这份清单并未纳入特朗普近期多次提及的部分目标:“政权更迭”、夺取伊朗石油、迫使伊朗军方放行霍尔木兹海峡的通航船只,以及彻底根除伊朗的核计划——其中包括去年夏天遭美军炸弹袭击的地下设施中储存的高浓缩铀。
Mr. Rubio’s list of four goals — all conventional and relatively modest — was similar to a list of three objectives he put out on March 9, in the second week of the war, with two notable differences: the addition of the destruction of Iran’s air force, and also a walking back of an earlier stated goal to “destroy their ability to launch missiles.” The new phrase, “severe diminishing” of that capability, indicates that U.S. officials no longer think it is feasible to completely destroy Iran’s missile program.
鲁比奥列出的这四大目标均为常规军事目标,尺度也相对保守,与他在3月9日(战争第二周)提出的三大目标很相近,但有两处显著差异:新增了“摧毁伊朗空军”的目标,同时收回了此前提出的“摧毁伊朗导弹发射能力”的说法。新的表述“大幅削弱”这一能力,意味着美国官方已不再认为彻底摧毁伊朗导弹项目具备可行性。
In laying out the four goals, Mr. Rubio appeared to be giving Mr. Trump an off-ramp that the president could decide to take. Mr. Trump could say the United States had achieved the goals and end U.S. combat operations, even if Israel, Saudi Arabia and some other Arab nations in the region are pressing him to continue the conflict until the violence forces a deeper structural change to Iran’s government and leadership.
鲁比奥列出这四大目标似乎是在为特朗普提供一条可供选择的退路。特朗普完全可以宣称美国已达成既定目标,就此结束美军的作战行动——尽管以色列、沙特阿拉伯及该地区其他部分阿拉伯国家仍在向他施压,要求他将冲突持续下去,直到通过武力迫使伊朗政府与领导层发生更深层次的结构性变革。
“We will achieve those objectives,” Mr. Rubio said on Al Jazeera about the four goals. “We are well on our way or ahead of schedule. We will achieve them in weeks, not months.”
“我们一定会实现这些目标,”鲁比奥在半岛电视台的采访中谈及这四大目标时表示。“目前相关行动进展顺利,部分甚至超前于计划。我们将在几周内完成目标,而不是几个月。”
But White House officials, including Ms. Leavitt, the press secretary, have reiterated the president’s more expansive goals of dismantling Iran’s missile and drone production infrastructure, weakening their proxies and preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.
但包括新闻秘书莱维特在内的白宫官员仍在重申总统范围更广的目标:摧毁伊朗的导弹与无人机生产基础设施、削弱伊朗的代理人势力,以及阻止伊朗获得核武器。
On Tuesday, Mr. Trump said the United States had already accomplished “regime change,” even though a theocratic leadership that is authoritarian and anti-American remains in place.
周二,特朗普宣称美国已经实现了在伊朗的“政权更迭”,尽管伊朗那个反美的威权神权领导层依然牢牢掌握权力。
“We’ve knocked out one regime, then we knocked out the second regime,” Mr. Trump said. “Now we have a group of people that are very different, they are much more reasonable, I think, much less radicalized. We have had regime change.”
“我们先是打败了第一个政权,然后又打败了第二个,”特朗普说。“现在我们面对的,是一群完全不同的人,我认为他们理性得多,也远远没那么激进。我们已经实现了政权更迭。”
If Mr. Trump does follow through on his threat to end the military campaign without reopening the Strait, he will leave the global economy in disarray. Oil prices have skyrocketed around the world, including in the United States, and European officials are urging countries to cut back on energy use.
如果特朗普真的兑现他的威胁,在霍尔木兹海峡通航未恢复的情况下结束军事行动,全球经济将陷入持续的混乱。目前全球各地油价已大幅飙升,包括美国在内,欧洲官员正呼吁各国削减能源使用。
But Mr. Trump, who said on Tuesday that “all I have to do is leave Iran” for oil prices to drop, has put the onus on other countries, including NATO allies, to reopen the strait.
但特朗普在周二表示,“只要我从伊朗撤军”,油价就会回落,同时他将恢复海峡通航的责任推给了包括北约盟友在内的其他国家。
“Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,” he wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday morning. “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”
“拿出你们迟来的勇气,去海峡,直接拿下它!”他周二早上在Truth Social平台上写道。“你们必须学会为自己而战,美国不会再去帮你们了,就像你们当初也没帮过我们一样。伊朗基本上已被摧毁,最难的部分已经做完了。自己去拿你们的石油吧!”