As President Trump was locked in a war of words with the leader of Colombia over the military deportation of migrants, China’s ambassador to Colombia declared that relations between Beijing and Bogotá were at their “best moment” in decades.

就在美国总统特朗普与哥伦比亚领导人就武力驱逐移民问题唇枪舌战之际，中国驻哥伦比亚大使宣称，北京与波哥大之间的关系正处于几十年来的“最佳时期”。

Zhu Jingyang, the ambassador, later said that it was a coincidence that he posted his comment on social media last week, a day after Mr. Trump said he would slap tariffs on Colombia. But the public outreach suggested that Beijing saw an opportunity to strengthen its hand in the high-stakes superpower rivalry between China and the United States.

朱京阳大使后来表示，他上周在社交媒体上发表该评论是一个巧合，就在前一天，特朗普声称，将对哥伦比亚征收关税。但这种公开表态表明，中国政府认为，在中美两国高风险的超级大国竞争中，有机会加强自身的影响力。

Two weeks into the second Trump administration, Mr. Trump’s aggressive “America First” foreign policy holds both promise and peril for Beijing.

特朗普第二任政府上台已有两周，他咄咄逼人的“美国优先”外交政策对北京来说既蕴含希望，也潜藏危机。

The perils have always been clear: more tariffs, and the risk of a wider trade war. This weekend, Mr. Trump imposed an additional 10 percent tariffs on goods imported from China, saying the tariffs were a response to China’s failure to curb fentanyl exports. He could answer any retaliation from China with even higher levies.

危机一直都很明显：更多的关税和更广泛的贸易战风险。本周末，特朗普对从中国进口的商品额外征收10%的关税，称这是对中国未能遏制芬太尼出口的回应。他可能会以更高的关税来回应中国的任何报复。

But even as Beijing calculates the impact of the tariffs on China’s weak economy, it is surely also taking stock of the openings that Mr. Trump’s other moves are giving China.

不过，就在中国政府计算关税对中国疲软经济的影响时，它肯定也在评估特朗普的其他举措给中国带来的机遇。

Mr. Trump has alienated U.S. allies and partners like Canada and Mexico by imposing steep tariffs on their exports. He has weakened America’s global authority by cutting foreign aid and withdrawing from the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement, a U.N. climate pact.

特朗普疏远了美国的盟友和加拿大、墨西哥等伙伴，对它们的出口产品征收高额关税。他削减对外援助，退出世界卫生组织和联合国气候协定《巴黎协定》，从而削弱了美国的全球权威。

加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华的一家酒类专卖店下架了广受欢迎的美国酒类品牌，以回应特朗普总统对加拿大商品征收25%的关税。

If the second Trump term marks the sunset of Pax Americana, analysts say China will almost certainly use the opportunity to try to reshape the world in its favor. Beijing, which has long accused Washington of using its dominance to contain China’s rise, has tried to drive a wedge between the United States and its allies, including the European Union, Japan and Australia.

分析人士表示，如果特朗普的第二个任期标志着“美国治下的和平”(Pax Americana)落幕，那么中国几乎肯定会利用这个机会，试图重新塑造有利于自己的世界秩序。长期以来，北京一直指责华盛顿利用其主导地位遏制中国崛起，并且一直试图在美国与欧盟、日本和澳大利亚等盟友之间制造裂痕。

“The Chinese are well aware of the damage Trump has done and is doing to U.S. credibility and influence globally. In fact, it is unfolding faster than even Beijing expected,” said Evan S. Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University who served as an Asia adviser to President Barack Obama.

“中国人非常清楚特朗普已经和正在对美国的全球信誉和影响力造成的损害。事实上，事态发展速度甚至超过了北京的预期，”乔治敦大学亚洲研究教授埃文·梅德罗斯说，他曾担任奥巴马总统的亚洲顾问。

Mr. Trump’s threats to take the Panama Canal and Greenland, as well as to annex Canada as America’s 51st state could normalize a world order in which might makes right. That is an approach that is familiar to Beijing, even if Chinese officials rhetorically maintain that it will never seek hegemony or expansion.

特朗普威胁要夺取巴拿马运河和格陵兰岛，以及将加拿大吞并为美国第51州，这可能会使强权即公理的世界秩序正常化。尽管中国官员在口头上坚称中国永不寻求霸权或扩张，但中国政府对这种做法并不陌生。

If the United States strong-arms Panama over its crucial waterway, or forces Denmark to give up the resource-rich territory of Greenland, it sends a signal to China that when it comes to its own claims to the self-governing island of Taiwan and much of the South China Sea, coercion trumps cooperation.

如果美国在巴拿马的重要水道问题上对其施以强硬手段，或迫使丹麦放弃资源丰富的格陵兰岛领土，这就向中国发出了一个信号：涉及中国自己对自治岛屿台湾和南海大部分海域的主权要求问题上，胁迫胜过合作。

“China was certainly never going to give up Taiwan or the South China Sea, but with President Trump doing what he’s doing, China is even more determined to safeguard its interests there, that’s for sure,” said Henry Huiyao Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing.

“中国肯定不会放弃台湾或南海，鉴于特朗普总统的所作所为，中国会更加坚定地维护自己在那里的利益，这是肯定的，”总部位于北京的全球化智库主席王辉耀说。

Mr. Wang said China has been encouraged by the first two weeks of the new administration despite the tariffs and appointment of hawkish advisers such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Michael Waltz, the national security adviser.

他说，尽管美国征收关税，并任命了国务卿马可·卢比奥和国家安全顾问迈克尔·华尔兹等鹰派顾问，但新政府上台的头两周还是令中国感到鼓舞。

Rather than coming out aggressively to confront China, Mr. Trump has presented himself as someone willing to negotiate and potentially cut a deal with Xi Jinping, China’s leader. Mr. Trump has floated the idea of tying tariffs to the fate of TikTok, which he has said should be half-owned by an American company.

特朗普没有咄咄逼人地与中国对抗，而是表现得愿意与中国领导人习近平谈判，并有可能达成交易。特朗普提出了将关税与TikTok的命运挂钩的想法，他说TikTok应由一家美国公司拥有一半股权。

Another potential area for deal making is Ukraine. Mr. Trump has said China should help end Russia’s war in the Eastern European country. China, as Russia’s biggest provider of economic and material support, could conceivably pressure President Vladimir V. Putin to come to the negotiation table.

另一个可能达成协议的领域是乌克兰。特朗普曾表示，中国应帮助结束俄罗斯在这个东欧国家的战争。可以想象，作为俄罗斯最大的经济和物质支持提供者，中国可以向俄罗斯总统普京施压，迫使他来到谈判桌。

“Trump wants China’s help to end the war in Ukraine,” Mr. Wang said. “China is one of the best partners for him to do that.”

“特朗普希望中国帮助他结束乌克兰战争，”王辉耀说。“中国是他实现这一目标的最佳合作伙伴之一。”

周日在米拉弗洛雷斯船闸参观时，国务卿马可·卢比奥与巴拿马运河管理局局长里卡多·巴斯克斯交谈。特朗普曾威胁要夺取巴拿马运河。

But with so many competing interests, cooperation would be difficult. China has avoided criticizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for example, taking the position that Russia has a right to protect its national security. Ukraine will not accept China as a peace broker because of China’s pro-Russian position, said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing. Mr. Putin, on the other hand, will not want to look subordinate to China, he said, while Mr. Trump has “no real stomach” to see China lauded for playing a significant role.

但由于存在众多利益竞争，合作将十分困难。例如，中国一直避免批评俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，其立场是俄罗斯有权保护自己的国家安全。北京人民大学国际关系教授时殷弘表示，由于中国的亲俄立场，乌克兰不会接受中国作为和平调解人。他说，另一方面，普京不希望看起来屈从于中国，而特朗普“受不了”看到中国因发挥重要作用而受到称赞。

一张俄罗斯国家媒体图片显示，俄罗斯总统普京上个月通过视频会议与中国领导人习近平通话。特朗普总统希望争取北京帮助结束俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争。

On the issue of tariffs, Beijing has to decide if it can afford to escalate a trade war with the United States. On Sunday, it vowed to respond to Mr. Trump’s tariffs by filing a case with the World Trade Organization and with countermeasures to be specified later.

在关税问题上，北京必须决定它是否能够承受与美国的贸易战升级。周日，中国誓言将向世界贸易组织提起诉讼，并在稍后明确反制措施，以回应特朗普的关税。

Beijing could hit back with tariffs. A more drastic approach would be for China to engage in “supply chain warfare”: halting shipments to the United States of materials and equipment critical to U.S. industry. In early December, China stopped the export to the United States of minerals like antimony and gallium, which are needed to manufacture some semiconductors.

北京可能会以关税回击。对于中国来说，更激烈的做法是发动“供应链战争”：停止向美国运输对美国工业至关重要的材料和设备。12月初，中国停止了向美国出口锑和镓等矿物，这些矿物是生产某些半导体所必需的。

The risk to China is that a trade war would be more damaging to itself than it would be for the United States. Exports, and the construction of factories to make them, are among the few strengths now in China’s economy. As a result, China’s trade surplus — the amount by which its exports exceeded imports — reached almost $1 trillion last year.

中国面临的风险是，贸易战对自身的损害比对美国的损害更大。出口以及为生产出口产品而建造的工厂是中国经济目前为数不多的优势之一。因此，去年中国的贸易顺差（出口额超过进口额的部分）达到近1万亿美元。

China has also not yet said how it will respond to a potentially farther-reaching provision in the fine print of Mr. Trump’s executive order on Saturday: the elimination of duty-free handling for packages worth up to $800 per day for each American. Factories all over China have shifted in recent years to e-commerce shipments directly to American homes, so as to bypass the many tariffs collected on clothing and other goods that are imported and sold through American stores.

中国也尚未表示如何应对特朗普周六行政令细则中一项影响可能更为深远的规定：取消对每个美国人每天价值不超过800美元的包裹的免税处理。近年来，中国各地的工厂已转向通过电子商务直接向美国家庭发货，从而绕过了对进口并通过美国商店销售的服装等商品征收的许多关税。

In the race for global influence, some argue that the Trump administration’s move to freeze most foreign aid, which has disrupted aid programs around the world, has already benefited China.

在争夺全球影响力的竞争中，有人认为，特朗普政府冻结大部分对外援助的举措已使中国受益，这一举措已经扰乱了世界各地的援助项目。

In regions like Southeast Asia, where attitudes toward the United States have hardened because of Washington’s support for Israel in the Gaza war, the halt in funding has raised questions about American reliability.

在东南亚等地区，由于华盛顿在加沙战争中对以色列的支持，人们对美国的态度变得更加强硬，资助的中止引发了对美国可靠性的质疑。

“China needs to do nothing in the meantime, and yet, somehow, net-net, look like the good guy in all of this,” said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst on China at the Eurasia Group.

“中国在此期间不需要做任何事情，但在某种程度上，最终看来像是这一切中的好人，”欧亚集团中国问题高级分析师杰里米·陈（音）说。

Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, defended the importance of soft power to America’s standing.

南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆为软实力对美国地位的重要性进行了辩护。

“If you don’t get involved in the world and you don’t have programs in Africa, where China is trying to buy the whole continent, we’re making a mistake,” he said last month.

“如果不参与世界事务，不在非洲开展项目，而中国正试图买下整个非洲大陆，那我们就犯了一个错误，”他在上个月说。