Donald Trump’s first term signaled a historic shift in U.S. policy toward China. His strategic blend of economic pressure, unpredictability, sanctions and tariffs knocked Beijing off balance. It was a turning point: Washington moved from passive acceptance of China’s revisionist ambitions to assertive opposition. The Biden administration has wisely maintained and in some cases expanded on this framework.

特朗普的第一个总统任期标志着美国对华政策的历史性转变。他用经济压力、不可预测性、制裁和关税的战略组合让中国政府失去平衡。那是个转折点：华盛顿从被动地接受中国的修正主义野心转向坚定自信的对抗。拜登政府明智地保持了这个框架，而且在某些情况下甚至将其扩大。

Mr. Trump’s second term could help America to win this strategic contest altogether.

特朗普的第二任期能帮助美国赢得这场战略性竞赛。

China faces an array of challenges, especially a stagnating economy, making it vulnerable to the president-elect’s assertive tactics. If Mr. Trump can couple the blustery style of his first term with a more focused strategy and tighter discipline, the next four years are a golden opportunity to keep Beijing on the defensive and permanently transform the rivalry in America’s favor.

中国面临着一系列挑战，尤其是经济发展停滞，这使中国在当选总统坚定自性的策略面前显得脆弱。如果特朗普能把他第一个任期的强硬作风与更有针对性的战略和更严格的纪律结合起来的话，未来四年将是一个绝佳机会，让中国处于守势，并将竞争局面永久地变到对美国有利的方向。

For China, the ideal outcome in the U.S. election would have been another four years of the Biden-Harris administration’s cautious approach. Although President Biden maintained targeted pressure on Beijing, his emphasis on détente and aversion to escalation would have afforded China’s leader, Xi Jinping, the predictability he needs to address his domestic troubles and advance China’s ambitions in critical areas such as technology, trade and the future of Taiwan.

对中国来说，美国大选的理想结果是谨慎行事的拜登-贺锦丽政府再执政四年。尽管拜登总统对北京保持了有针对性的压力，但他对缓和局势、避免升级的强调，已给中国领导人习近平提供了解决国内问题，推动中国在技术、贸易和台湾未来等关键领域的野心所需要的可预测性。

But Mr. Trump isn’t content with merely managing the competition with Beijing. He aims to win it. His zero-sum approach and unconventional tactics — as well as an emerging cabinet of China hawks — are likely to deny Mr. Xi the breathing room he desperately needs and push the Chinese leader into a high-stakes test of wills he cannot easily control or predict.

但特朗普不只是满足于仅仅管理与中国的竞争。他的目标是赢得这场竞争。他的零和博弈和非常规策略——以及一个由对华鹰派人士组成的未来内阁——很可能会让习近平失去他迫切需要的喘息空间，并将这名中国领导人推入一场他无法轻易控制或预测的高风险意志力考验。

Despite a decade of projecting outward strength, China is, in fact, a declining power, its rise having been undone by Mr. Xi’s mismanagement, heavy-handed repression and strategic blunders. The country faces crippling debt, record-high youth unemployment and a shrinking, rapidly aging population. His ideology-driven approach, which places the Chinese Communist Party at the heart of economic decision making, has eroded business confidence, spurred capital flight and led to unprecedented drops in foreign investment. China’s era of sky-high growth is giving way to a stagnation reminiscent of Japan’s so-called lost decade, a period of deflation and economic inertia from which Japan has yet to fully recover. Even Mr. Xi cautioned citizens last year to be prepared to “eat bitterness,” a Chinese phrase signaling hard times ahead.

尽管十年来中国一直在向外展示实力，但实际上，中国是一个正在衰落的大国，中国的崛起被习近平的管理不善、严厉镇压和战略失误搞得一蹶不振。中国面临着沉重的债务负担、创纪录的青年失业率，以及人口萎缩和快速老龄化的问题。习近平用意识形态主导一切，将中共置于经济决策的核心，这种做法已经削弱了商业信心，引发了资本外逃，导致了外国投资的空前下降。中国经济高速增长的时代正在让位于停滞，让人想起日本的那个通货紧缩、经济停滞的时期，所谓的“失去的十年”，日本至今尚未完全恢复过来。就连习近平也在去年告诫民众要做好“吃苦”的准备，这个中国俗语示意的是未来的日子不好过。

The U.S. economy, meanwhile, is gaining momentum, and Mr. Trump — who views China’s centrally planned, manufacturing-heavy model as predatory and harmful to American workers — seems ready to aggressively leverage U.S. strength, as he did in his first term. He has proposed tariffs as high as 60 percent on Chinese imports, which, according to some estimates, could shave up to two percentage points off China’s gross domestic product.

与此同时，美国经济正在不断壮大，而特朗普似乎已准备像他在第一个任期里做的那样积极利用美国的优势，他认为中国自上而下的、以制造业为主的计划经济是掠夺性的，危害了美国工人的利益。他已提出要对中国的进口产品征收高达60%的关税，据某些估计，这可能会导致中国的国内生产总值减少两个百分点。

The bluster and brinkmanship of Mr. Trump’s first term could also prove invaluable regarding Taiwan. Mr. Xi’s goal is to bring the democratically ruled island under Chinese rule, by force if necessary. Mr. Trump, however, is threatening tariffs as high as 200 percent on Chinese goods if China takes military action. The president-elect summed up the situation best when he noted last month that Mr. Xi wouldn’t dare provoke him over Taiwan because the Chinese leader knows that he’s “crazy.”

特朗普第一个任期的咄咄逼人和边缘政策在台湾问题上也可能发挥巨大的作用。习近平的目标是将这个民主自治岛屿置于中国的统治之下，如有必要，将使用武力。但特朗普正在威胁说，如果中国采取军事行动，将对中国商品征收高达200%的关税。这名候任总统对台湾问题的最好总结是他上个月说的一番话，他说，习近平不敢在台湾问题上挑衅他，因为中国领导人知道他“疯狂”。

Chinese anxiety over Mr. Trump’s return is already surfacing. During the Biden administration, Beijing often struck a defiant tone, accusing the United States of encirclement and containment. But after Mr. Trump’s decisive election victory, Chinese leaders quickly struck a more conciliatory tone, calling for peaceful coexistence and a new era of cooperation.

中国对特朗普再次掌权的担忧已经浮现出来。在拜登执政期间，中国政府经常使用挑衅性的语调，指责美国对中国进行包围、遏制。但在特朗普在大选中取得了决定性的胜利后，中国领导人马上采取了更为缓和的语调，呼吁和平共处，开启合作的新时代。

But America must build on today’s momentum, especially in the high-stakes contest with China over critical technologies such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles and quantum computing — the engines of tomorrow’s industrial revolution. Allowing China to seize the lead would dangerously tilt global power dynamics in its favor, undermining U.S. national security. Mr. Trump recognizes this risk and has signaled he would probably intensify tariffs, export controls and sanctions on China’s tech and manufacturing sectors that have already hindered the country’s economy and its potential for innovation. He may also champion tighter screening of U.S. investments in China’s tech sector, a strategy that has bipartisan support and could impede China’s development and deployment of advanced military capabilities.

但美国必须加大今天的势头，尤其是在与中国争夺半导体、人工智能、自动驾驶汽车和量子计算等关键技术领域的高风险竞争上，这些技术是未来工业革命的引擎。让中国夺得这些领域的制高点将使全球的权力动态向有利于中国的方向倾斜，削弱美国的国家安全。特朗普意识到了这种风险，并已发出信号表示，他可能会加强对中国科技和制造业部门的关税、出口管制和制裁，目前已有的限制措施已阻碍了中国的经济发展和潜在的创新。他还可能主张对美国在中国科技领域的投资进行更严格的审查，这是得到两党支持的战略，并可能阻碍中国发展和部署先进的军事能力。

Mr. Xi is pinning China’s economic hopes on an outdated, state-subsidized manufacturing-for-export model. But this strategy is highly vulnerable to U.S. tariffs. Mr. Xi might appeal to Mr. Trump’s deal-making instincts by offering selective concessions to blunt the impact of tariffs, but these are unlikely to sway Mr. Trump for long.

习近平把中国经济的希望寄托在过时的、靠国家补贴的制造业出口模式上。但这个战略极易受美国关税的影响。习近平可能会迎合特朗普的交易本能，通过提供选择性的让步，来减轻关税的影响，但这些做法不太可能对特朗普有长期的影响。

Mr. Xi has tools of his own that he can use, but nearly all of them are risky. He could shore up his economy by cutting interest rates, extending tax rebates or further subsidizing exporters. But these are short-term remedies that are likely to worsen long-term economic instability by inflating China’s staggering debt, which is currently estimated to be nearly three times the size of the country’s G.D.P. Striking back with his own tariffs could ignite a trade war that affects U.S. consumers, but Mr. Trump has shown a readiness to absorb short-term political costs for strategic gain, and polls indicate that most Americans support his tariff threats.

习近平有他自己能使用的工具，但几乎所有的工具都有风险。他可以通过降低利率、延长退税期限，或进一步补贴出口商来支撑经济。但这些都是短期的补救措施，可能会导致中国的巨额债务膨胀，从而加剧中国经济在长远上的不稳定性。目前对中国债务的估计是，它几乎是国内生产总值的三倍。用中国自己的关税进行反击，可能会引发影响到美国消费者的贸易战，但特朗普已表现出愿意为换取战略利益承担短期政治代价的意愿，民意调查显示，大多数美国人支持他的关税威胁。

Mr. Xi could retaliate by restricting U.S. companies’ access to Chinese markets, but that may further unsettle foreign investors already wary of China’s economic trajectory. Curbing Chinese exports of minerals essential for high-tech manufacturing could also backfire by accelerating U.S.-led efforts to secure alternative sources. Devaluing the Chinese currency would make the country’s exports cheaper, offsetting the impact of tariffs. But it is likely to accelerate capital flight and strain relations with other trade partners.

习近平可以通过限制美国公司进入中国市场来进行反击，但这可能会进一步让外国投资者不安，他们已经对中国的经济走向持谨慎态度。中国限制出口高科技制造业所需的矿产也可能适得其反，因为美国会加速其主导的寻找替代来源的努力。让人民币贬值将使中国的出口产品变得更便宜，抵消关税的影响。但这可能会加速资本外逃，并使中国与其他贸易伙伴的关系紧张。

As a last resort, Mr. Xi could escalate tensions over Taiwan or in the South China Sea, but that risks galvanizing U.S. alliances and inviting a stronger American military presence in the region.

作为最后的手段，习近平可能会升级台湾或南中国海的紧张局势，但这可能会让美国的联盟振奋起来，并导致美国加强在亚太地区的军事存在。

To fully capitalize on China’s current vulnerabilities and secure lasting American advantages, the next Trump administration must recognize the historic opportunity it faces. Today’s international landscape echoes the latter stages of the Cold War, when President Ronald Reagan confronted a weakening Soviet Union and hastened its collapse by forcing Moscow to make costly resource allocation decisions that ultimately bankrupted it. This isn’t to suggest America’s goal with China should be regime change; rather, the United States should aim beyond mere coexistence. It should confidently wield the moral and economic strength of its democratic model until China’s leaders and people recognize that their system is unsustainable and embrace a freer and less hostile path.

为了充分利用中国目前的脆弱性，确保美国的持久优势，下一届特朗普政府必须认识到它所面临的历史机遇。当今的国际形势与冷战后期如出一辙，当时里根总统面对的是日益衰弱的苏联，他迫使莫斯科做出了代价高昂的资源分配决定，最终导致苏联经济破产，从而加速了苏联的解体。这并不是说，美国的对华目标应该是政权更迭；相反，美国的目标应该超越单纯的共存。美国应该自信地运用本国民主模式的道德和经济力量，直到中国领导人和中国人民认识到他们的制度是不可持续的，从此走上一条更自由、更少敌意的道路。

But achieving lasting success will require more than pressuring China for pressure’s sake. It will demand a wider peace-through-strength approach that combines American domestic renewal, enhanced military spending, entrepreneurial dynamism and, critically, the alliance network that Mr. Biden revitalized across Asia and Europe. The incoming administration needs to grasp that this is a crucial piece of the puzzle in confronting China and ensure that a renewed “America First” approach focuses on fair burden sharing among allies rather than excessive tariffs on allies or questioning American commitments to mutual defense arrangements. These would only undermine deterrence and create diplomatic rifts that China would be quick to exploit.

但要取得持久的成功，需要的不仅仅是为了施压而施压。它需要的是一种更广泛的、以实力求和平的多方面做法，将美国国内的复兴、增进军费开支、创业活力，以及最关键的是拜登恢复了生机的美国在亚洲和欧洲的联盟结合起来。新一届政府需要明白，这是解决对抗中国问题的关键一环，也是确保重新开始的“美国优先”方针把重点放在盟友之间公平分担责任上，而不是对盟友征收过高关税或质疑美国对共同防御的承诺。那些做法只会削弱威慑力，制造外交分裂，而中国会马上利用这些分裂。

Mr. Trump’s bold style isn’t for the fainthearted. In a time of fierce global competition, he sees balance as weakness and coexistence as capitulation. Yet if he can draw from past lessons, engage with our allies and stay disciplined, he just might be crazy enough to confront China — and win.

特朗普的大胆作风不适合胆怯之人。在全球竞争激烈的时代，他认为寻求平衡是软弱，共存是投降。然而，如果他能吸取过去的教训，与我们的盟友保持密切关系，坚定不移地做下去，他也许会是一个疯狂到足以对抗中国的人，并取得胜利。