President Trump went on the offensive against Apple on Friday, demanding that the company begin making iPhones in the United States or pay tariffs of at least 25 percent on iPhones made abroad.

周五，特朗普总统对苹果公司发起攻击，要求该公司开始在美国本土生产iPhone，否则将对海外生产的iPhone征收至少25%的关税。

The ultimatum is the latest in a decade-long push to get the technology giant to move its supply chain. When he first ran for president in 2016, Mr. Trump promised voters that he would “get Apple to start building their damn computers and things in this country instead of other countries.”

这一最后通牒是十年以来一直推动这家科技巨头转移供应链的最新举措。早在2016年首次竞选总统时，特朗普就向选民承诺，他将“让苹果开始在这个国家生产他们该死的电脑和其他东西，而不是在其他国家”。

But instead of bringing its manufacturing home, Apple has shifted production from China to other countries across Asia, including India, Vietnam and Thailand. Almost nothing is made in America, and an estimated 80 percent of iPhones are still made in China.

但苹果并没有把生产线迁回本国，而是从中国转移到亚洲其他国家，包括印度、越南和泰国。几乎没有任何产品是在美国生产的，且估计有80%的iPhone仍在中国生产。

Could Apple make iPhones in the United States?

苹果可以在美国生产iPhone吗？

Yes. Apple could make iPhones in the United States. But doing so would be expensive and difficult and force the company to more than double iPhone prices to $2,000 or more, said Wayne Lam, an analyst with TechInsights, a market research firm. Apple would have to buy new machines and rely on more automation than it uses in China because the U.S. population is so much smaller, Mr. Lam said.

可以。苹果是可以在美国生产iPhone。但市场调研公司TechInsights的分析师韦恩·蓝姆表示，这样做的代价高昂，而且难度很大，将迫使公司将iPhone的价格提高一倍以上，达到2000美元或更高。蓝姆说，苹果将不得不购买新设备，并且提高自动化程度，因为美国的人口远少于中国。

“It is absurd,” he said. “In the short term, it’s not economically feasible.”

“这太荒谬了，”他说。“短期内，这在经济上不具有可行性。”

There would be some benefits to moving the supply chain, including reducing the environmental costs of shipping products from abroad, said Matthew Moore, who spent nine years as a manufacturing design manager at Apple. But the upsides would be trivial compared with the challenges that would have to be overcome.

曾在苹果公司担任九年制造设计经理职位的马修·摩尔表示，转移供应链会有一些好处，包括减少从海外运输产品的环境成本。但与必须克服的挑战相比，这些好处微不足道。

So why hasn’t Apple started production in the United States?

苹果为什么还没有开始在美国开始呢？

Supply chain experts say shifting iPhone production to the United States in 2025 would be foolish. The iPhone is nearly 20 years old. Apple’s top executives have said people may not need an iPhone in 10 years because it could be replaced by a new device built for artificial intelligence. As a result, Apple would invest a lot of money that it wouldn’t be able to recoup, Mr. Lam said.

供应链专家表示，在2025年将iPhone生产转移到美国是愚蠢之举。iPhone面世已近20年了。苹果高管曾表示，10年后人们可能不再需要iPhone，因为它可能会被一种为人工智能打造的新设备取代。蓝姆表示，在这样的背景下，苹果的巨额投资恐怕无法回本。

“I would be surprised if there’s an iPhone 29,” he said, noting that Apple is trying to disrupt the iPhone by making augmented reality products like the Vision Pro.

“如果还有iPhone 29的话，我会很惊讶，”他说，并指出苹果正试图通过开发Vision Pro这类增强现实产品来逐步取代iPhone的核心地位。

Apple also had a bad experience when it began assembling Mac desktop computers in the United States in 2013. The company had to temporarily stop production when employees walked off the assembly line at the end of their shift but before their replacements arrived. And it struggled to find a supplier that could make enough of the tiny, custom screws it needed.

2013年，当苹果开始在美国组装Mac台式电脑时曾遭遇困境。由于员工交接班出现空档，公司不得不暂停生产。此外，苹果公司还难以找到一家能够足量供应微型定制螺丝的供应商。

In 2019, Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, gave Mr. Trump a tour of the Texas plant. But recent labels on the computer say the Mac Pro assembled there is a product of Thailand.

2019年，苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克曾带特朗普参观位于得州的工厂。但最近一批电脑上的标签显示，在得州组装的Mac Pro是泰国制造。

苹果可以在美国生产iPhone，但这样做既昂贵又困难，将迫使公司将iPhone的价格提高一倍以上。

What does China offer that the United States doesn’t?

中国究竟具备哪些美国无法提供的优势？

Small hands, a massive, seasonal work force and millions of engineers.

小巧的双手、庞大的季节性劳动力，以及数百万的工程师队伍。

Young Chinese women have small fingers, and that has made them a valuable contributor to iPhone production because they are more nimble at installing screws and other miniature parts in the small device, supply chain experts said. In a recent analysis the company did to explore the feasibility of moving production to the United States, the company determined that it couldn’t find people with those skills in the United States, said two people familiar with the analysis who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

供应链专家表示，年轻的中国女性手指较小，这让她们在装配iPhone时更具优势，因为她们在安装螺丝和其他微型零件方面更加灵巧。两位不愿具名的知情人士透露，在最近为评估将生产转移到美国的可行性而进行的分析中，该公司确认在美国找不到具备同等精密装配技能的人才。

China has millions of people who migrate around the country to work in factories as Apple revs up production around a new iPhone. They often work from the summer until Chinese New Year, when production slows down, so Apple’s suppliers don’t have to pay them for a full year of work. They live in dormitories connected to factories with assembly lines longer than a football field, clustered nearby component suppliers.

中国拥有数以百万计的流动工人，他们可以随着苹果新iPhone的生产周期前往位于各地的工厂打工。他们通常从夏季工作到春节生产放缓的时期，因此苹果的供应商无需向他们支付全年的工资。他们住在工厂配套的宿舍区，这些工厂的装配线比足球场还长，周边还聚集了各类零部件供应商。

China has a deep bench of engineering talent. In 2017, Mr. Cook said the country had enough tooling engineers to fill multiple football fields, while the United States barely had enough to fill a room.

中国拥有雄厚的工程人才储备。2017年，库克表示，中国的工程人才储备人数之多，可以填满多个足球场，而美国的同类型人才甚至填不满一个房间。

“These are sophisticated factories with thousands and thousands and thousands of engineers,” Mr. Moore said. “You can’t just pick it up and move it.”

“这些是拥有成千上万工程师的精密工厂，”摩尔说。“你不可能说搬走就搬走。”

Why has Apple been moving iPhone production to India?

苹果为何将iPhone生产转移到印度？

Apple began revving up production of iPhones in India to avoid local taxes on importing iPhones from China. At the time, India was emerging as the world’s second-largest smartphone market behind China. Apple wanted to increase its sales there but couldn’t offer competitively priced iPhones without starting production inside the country.

苹果开始在印度加速iPhone生产是为了避免从中国进口iPhone所需缴纳的高额关税。当时，印度正逐渐成为仅次于中国的全球第二大智能手机市场。苹果希望在那里增加市场份额，但如果不在本地开始生产，就无法提供具有竞争力的价格。

In many ways, India looks much like China did two decades ago. It has a huge pool of engineers, and the country has offered factories subsidies that help limit what Apple has to spend to support manufacturing there.

在许多方面，印度现在看起来就像是20年前的中国。它拥有大量工程人才，国家还为工厂提供补贴，帮助苹果控制制造支出。

With India production increasing, is Apple really becoming less dependent on China?

随着印度的产量提升，苹果对中国的依赖真的减少了吗？

Not really. Apple still puts together most of the complex components inside an iPhone in China, including displays and modules for its Face ID technology. Those components, which have gone through a process called subassembly, are shipped to India, where they are bundled into an iPhone like Lego bricks. The result is a final product that can claim to be assembled in India, even if much of the work was done in China.

并没有。苹果仍然在中国组装iPhone中大部分的复杂组件，包括屏幕和面容识别技术模块。这些组件经过一个被称为“预装配”的过程后再运往印度，在那里像乐高积木一样组装成一部iPhone。最终产品可以声称是在印度组装的，即使其中大部分工作是在中国完成的。

In the process, Apple avoids U.S. tariffs, but the dependency on China remains.

在这一过程中，苹果避开了美国关税，但对中国的深度依赖依然存在。