Two years ago, Gen. Mark A. Milley, then the chief military adviser to President Biden, suggested that neither Russia nor Ukraine could win the war. A negotiated settlement, he argued, was the only route to peace.

两年前，时任拜登总统首席军事顾问的马克·A·米利将军曾表示，俄罗斯和乌克兰都无法赢得这场战争。他认为，谈判达成协议是实现和平的唯一途径。

His remarks caused a furor among senior officials. But President-elect Donald J. Trump’s win is turning General Milley’s prediction into reality. Mr. Trump has made clear his distaste for continuing to help Ukraine take back territory seized by Russia, making a negotiated settlement the only real viable option left.

他的言论在高级官员中引发了轩然大波。但候任总统特朗普的胜利正在将米利的预言变为现实。特朗普明确表示，不愿继续帮助乌克兰夺回被俄罗斯占领的土地，这使得谈判解决成为唯一可行的选择。

The ascendance of Mr. Trump as Ukraine suffers losses on the battlefield in fact means less room for Ukraine to maneuver.

随着乌克兰在战场上遭受损失，特朗普的到来实际上意味着乌克兰的回旋余地更小。

One of the biggest unknowns for Ukraine is whether the Trump administration and Europe will provide any kind of security guarantees that would prevent Russia from trying to take more territory. Mr. Trump has said he would end the war quickly, though he has not explained how. But Vice President-elect JD Vance has outlined a plan that would allow Russia to keep the Ukrainian territory it has taken.

乌克兰面临的最大未知之一是特朗普政府和欧洲是否会提供任何形式的安全保障，以阻止俄罗斯试图占领更多领土。特朗普表示，他将迅速结束战争，尽管没有解释如何做到这一点。但候任副总统JD·万斯已经概述了一项计划，允许俄罗斯保留其占领的乌克兰领土。

A phone call just after the election between Mr. Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine shed little light on the question of security guarantees. Aides to both men simply described the tone of the call as “positive.”

特朗普和乌克兰总统泽连斯基在大选刚结束后的通话并未就安全保障问题透露多少信息。两人的助手都只是简单地将两人的通话基调描述为“积极的”。

本月，乌克兰基辅，遭俄罗斯无人机袭击后受损的住宅楼。候任总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基之间的电话交谈并未就安全保障问题透露多少信息。

Some officials in the Biden administration have suggested taking more assertive measures in the remaining two months they have to help Ukraine, such as allowing the country to use U.S.-supplied longer-range missiles to strike inside Russia for the first time.

拜登政府的一些官员建议在剩下的两个月里采取更坚决的措施来帮助乌克兰，例如首次允许乌克兰使用美国提供的远程导弹，对俄罗斯境内发起攻击。

In recent days, Mr. Biden authorized the use of those missiles, known as ATACMS, for Army Tactical Missile Systems. Ukraine used them on Tuesday to strike an ammunition depot in southwestern Russia, according to Ukrainian officials.

最近几天，拜登授权批准了乌克兰使用这些被称为陆军战术导弹系统(ATACMS)的导弹。据乌克兰官员称，该国周二使用这些导弹袭击了俄罗斯西南部的一个弹药库。

On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said the Biden administration had approved supplying Ukraine with American anti-personnel mines to bolster defenses against Russian attacks as front lines in Ukraine’s east buckled.

周三，国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀三世表示，拜登政府已批准向乌克兰提供美国的反步兵地雷，以加强对俄罗斯袭击的防御，乌克兰东部前线正承受重压。

But Mr. Biden’s last-minute steps to give Ukraine weaponry it has been requesting for years are unlikely to change much on the battlefield.

但拜登在最后一刻采取的措施——向乌克兰提供其多年来一直要求的武器——不太可能对战事带来太大改变。

The White House has said it will allocate the remaining $9 billion in security assistance before Mr. Trump takes office. Of that amount, the administration plans to give Ukraine just over $7 billion worth of arms and munitions from Pentagon stocks, and about $2.1 billion to order more weapons from U.S. defense contractors.

白宫表示，将在特朗普就任前拨出剩余的90亿美元安全援助。其中，政府计划从五角大楼库存中拿出价值略高于70亿美元的武器和弹药提供给乌克兰，另有约21亿美元用于向美国国防承包商订购更多武器。

In meetings in Kyiv last month, Mr. Austin and top Ukrainian military officials discussed which arms and munitions the United States was likely to send in the next five months — or roughly through March — so that Ukraine’s commanders could budget their war plans accordingly.

上个月在基辅举行的会议上，奥斯汀和乌克兰军方高级官员讨论了美国可能在未来五个月（也就是大概到明年3月）提供哪些武器和弹药，以便乌克兰指挥官可以相应地制定作战计划预算。

7月，接近前线的乌克兰军队。拜登政府的一些官员建议在剩下的几个月里采取更坚决的措施来帮助乌克兰。

Of course, the new administration could put those shipments on hold. But Pentagon officials have expressed confidence that it would be challenging for the Trump administration to suspend aid that has already been approved by Congress and set into motion.

当然，新政府可能会暂停这些物资的运输。但五角大楼官员表示，他们相信特朗普政府若想暂停国会已经批准并开始实施的援助不会那么容易。

In another shift this month, the Pentagon said it was lifting a ban on U.S. military contractors deploying to Ukraine to help the country’s military maintain and repair U.S.-provided weapons systems, particularly F-16 fighter jets and Patriot air defenses.

本月，五角大楼还做出了另一个转变，称将解除对美国军事承包商的禁令，不再禁止他们部署到乌克兰，以帮助该国军队维护和维修美国提供的武器系统，特别是F-16战机和爱国者防空系统。

The Defense Department is soliciting bids for a small number of contractors who would be far from the front lines and would not be fighting Russian forces, a Pentagon official said.

五角大楼官员表示，国防部正在招标少量承包商，后者将远离前线，不会与俄罗斯军队作战。

Pentagon officials are aiming to award contracts before Mr. Biden leaves office, though the process typically takes four to nine months.

五角大楼官员计划在拜登离任前授予合同，尽管这一过程通常需要四到九个月。

Several U.S. companies already have personnel in Ukraine fulfilling contracts for the Ukrainian government.

几家美国公司已向乌克兰派驻人员，以履行乌克兰政府的合同。

The administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to use the ATACMS missiles to strike inside Russia was a major change in U.S. policy. It came partly in response to Russia’s decision to bring North Korean troops into the war, officials have said.

拜登政府允许乌克兰使用ATACMS导弹袭击俄罗斯境内的决定是美国政策的重大变化。官员们表示，此举部分是为了回应俄罗斯让朝鲜军队参战的决定。

Mr. Biden and his top aides had repeatedly rejected such requests from Ukraine, arguing that the Pentagon had few of the missiles to spare and that Ukraine could more effectively hit targets deep inside Russia with the one-way attack drones it manufactured in large quantities.

拜登和他的高级助手曾多次拒绝乌克兰的此类要求，认为五角大楼没有多余的导弹，且乌克兰可以用大规模生产的单向攻击无人机更有效地打击俄罗斯境内的目标。

本月，乌克兰基辅，被击落的俄罗斯攻击无人机的残骸。美国和欧洲官员正在讨论以威慑作为乌克兰可能的安全保障。

But the escalation risk of allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with U.S.-supplied weaponry has diminished with the election of Mr. Trump, Biden administration officials believe, calculating that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia knows he has to wait only two months for the new administration. Mr. Trump is believed to view Russia more favorably, and his choice for director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, has often repeated Kremlin talking points.

但拜登政府官员认为，随着特朗普当选，允许乌克兰使用美国提供的武器袭击俄罗斯的风险已有所降低，因为俄罗斯总统普京知道他只需等待两个月就能迎来新政府。特朗普被认为对俄罗斯的看法更为友好，他提名的国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德经常重复克里姆林宫的谈话要点。

Even with additional aid, officials in the intelligence community as well as at the Pentagon say it will be difficult for Ukraine to regain the ground that Russia has steadily seized over the past few months.

情报界和五角大楼的官员表示，即使得到额外的援助，乌克兰也很难收复俄罗斯在过去几个月稳步夺取的土地。

Ukraine is losing territory in the east, and its forces in the Kursk region in western Russia have been partly pushed back as North Korean recruits join the fight.

乌克兰正在其东部失去领土，而随着朝鲜士兵加入战斗，其在俄罗斯西部库尔斯克地区的军队已被部分击退。

Sagging morale among Ukrainian troops and uncertainty over Mr. Trump also continue to threaten their war effort.

乌克兰军队士气的低落，以及对特朗普的不确定性，也持续威胁着他们的战争努力。

The Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and equip new units. The number of its soldiers killed in action, about 57,000, is half of Russia’s losses but significant for the much smaller country.

乌克兰军方在招募士兵和装备新部队方面正面临困难。乌克兰士兵阵亡人数约为5.7万人，是俄罗斯阵亡人数的一半，但对于这个小得多的国家来说，这是一个庞大的数字。

U.S. spy agencies have assessed that speeding up the provisions of weapons, ammunition and matériel for Ukraine will do little to change the course of the war in the short term, according to American officials briefed on the intelligence.

据了解情报的美国官员称，美国情报机构评估，加快向乌克兰提供武器、弹药和物资在短期内不会对改变战争进程起到多大作用。

8月，靠近俄罗斯边境的乌克兰军队。官员们表示，即使得到额外援助，乌克兰也很难收复俄罗斯占领的土地。

But speeding up U.S. weaponry in the waning months of the Biden administration could help Ukraine enforce a cease-fire or armistice line if there were to be a settlement, officials said.

但官员们表示，在拜登政府执政的最后几个月里加快美国武器装备的部署，可能有助于乌克兰维持停火或停战约定的边界线——如果双方能达成协议的话。

The one gold-standard security guarantee that Ukraine wants is an invitation to join NATO. But it could not get that under Mr. Biden, and an invitation is unlikely during Mr. Trump’s presidency.

乌克兰最想要的最高安全保障是邀请其加入北约。但在拜登执政期间，乌克兰没能获得这一邀请，而在特朗普担任总统期间也不太可能获得。

So U.S. and European officials are discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine, such as stockpiling a conventional arsenal sufficient to strike a punishing blow if Russia violates a cease-fire.

因此，美国和欧洲官员正在讨论以威慑作为乌克兰可能的安全保障，例如储备当俄罗斯违反停火协议时足以发动惩罚性打击的常规武器库。

Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications.

几名官员甚至建议拜登将苏联解体后从乌克兰夺走的核武器归还给该国。这将是一个立竿见影的巨大威慑。但这样的举措将非常复杂，并会产生严重影响。

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister, said in an interview that for a successful cease-fire, Ukraine and its allies must reverse the momentum on the front line to set conditions for talks.

前乌克兰国防部长安德烈·扎戈罗德纽克在接受采访时表示，要成功停火，乌克兰及其盟友必须扭转前线的势头，为谈判创造条件。

Ukraine must also have sufficient firepower in reserve to deter any cease-fire violations, he said, for example with an arsenal of longer-range weaponry to inflict immediate damage if Russia resumes hostilities.

他说，乌克兰还必须拥有足够的火力储备，以阻止任何违反停火的行为，例如，如果俄罗斯恢复敌对行动，乌克兰需要拥有远程武器库，以便即刻对对方实施破坏。

Ukraine’s army, though on a back foot now, has held out for more than two and a half years against a larger, more powerful opponent. “The fact that we went 10 rounds with Mike Tyson is a success,” Mr. Zagorodnyuk said.

乌克兰军队虽然目前处于劣势，但它已经与规模更大、更为强大的对手对抗了超过两年半。“我们与迈克·泰森打了10个回合，这就是成功，”扎戈罗德纽克说。

But that was with billions of dollars in U.S. and European weapons. Now that supply is about to dry up, officials on both sides of the Atlantic say.

但那是在价值数百亿美元的美国和欧洲武器的帮助下达成的。大西洋两岸的官员都表示，现在这些武器供应即将枯竭。