For the past year, the United States and China have tried to manage their rivalry to reassure the world that tensions between the superpowers would not spiral into conflict. The return of President Donald J. Trump to the White House threatens to upend that delicate balance.

在过去的一年里，美国和中国一直设法管控两国之间的竞争，使世界放心：这两个超级大国之间的紧张关系不会升级为冲突。前总统特朗普重返白宫则有可能颠覆这种微妙的平衡。

As a statesman, Mr. Trump’s calling card is his unpredictability. He revels in mixing threats with flattery to keep his counterparts guessing. On China, he has vowed to impose blanket tariffs on Chinese exports, and threatened duties as high as 200 percent if China were to ever “go into Taiwan,” the self-governed island claimed by Beijing.

特朗普作为一名政治人士的标志是他的不可预测性。他喜欢把威胁和奉承混着用，让他的对手们捉摸不定。在中国问题上，他发誓要对中国出口商品征收全面关税，并威胁说，如果中国“进入台湾”，他将把关税提高到最高200%。台湾是一个自治的岛屿，中国政府宣称对其拥有主权。

But Mr. Trump has also praised Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, saying on a Joe Rogan podcast that he was a “brilliant guy” for controlling 1.4 billion people with an “iron fist.”

但特朗普也称赞中国最高领导人习近平，他在乔·罗根录制的一个播客上说，习近平用“铁腕”控制着14亿人民，他是个“棒极了的人”。

Regardless of the direction of Mr. Trump’s rhetoric, Beijing has likely concluded after Mr. Trump’s first presidency that he intends to wage a fierce rivalry with China, no matter what he says.

无论特朗普奉承还是威胁，中国政府可能已在他的第一个总统任期后得出结论，不管嘴上怎么说，他都打算与中国展开激烈的竞争。

“Xi Jinping is an unsentimental leader with a dark interpretation of America’s intentions toward China,” said Ryan Hass, the director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. “He would be open to a friendlier leader-level relationship with Trump, but he would not expect a warmer personal relationship with Trump to dampen America’s competitive impulses toward China.”

“习近平是一位不流露感情的领导人，对于美国的对华意图，他有着阴暗的解读，”布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心主任何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)说。“他会考虑与特朗普建立更友好的领导层关系，但他不指望与特朗普更亲密的个人关系会抑制美国对中国的竞争冲动。”

时任美国总统的特朗普在佛罗里达州棕榈滩的马拉阿歌庄园与中国最高领导人习近平见面，摄于2017年。

Buttressing Beijing’s view is the fact there is bipartisan consensus in the United States about confronting China. Trump may have started an era of bare-knuckled competition with the trade war and increased American support for Taiwan, but that approach didn’t change under President Biden.

支持中国政府观点的一个事实是，美国两党在对抗中国上意见一致。尽管也许是特朗普用贸易战和增加美国对台支持的做法开启了一个赤裸裸竞争的时代，但这种做法在拜登总统的任期内并没有改变。

If anything, Beijing says U.S. pressure has only intensified. Mr. Xi has accused the Biden administration of unfairly containing and suppressing China. He points to the deepening security arrangements between the United States and its allies and partners in Asia; restrictions on Chinese access to American technology like advanced chips; and the use of U.S. sanctions to punish Beijing for its tacit support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

反倒是在中国政府看来，美国只会施加更大的压力。习近平指责拜登政府不公平地遏制和压制中国。他指出，美国与其亚洲盟友和伙伴们不断深化安全关系，限制中国获取先进芯片等美国技术，以及利用制裁来惩罚中国默默支持俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争。

While the precise details of Mr. Trump’s foreign policy agenda will likely remain unclear until he picks his cabinet, China is already showing it is more prepared for whatever is in store compared to Mr. Trump’s first presidency.

尽管特朗普外交政策议程的具体细节在他组阁之前可能一直不明确，但与特朗普的第一个任期相比，中国已表明对可能发生的一切都做好了更充分的准备。

In just the past month, China has been cozying up to American allies and partners who might feel uncertain about the future of Washington’s reliability. It struck a deal with India to ease its border tensions, and Chinese troops exchanged sweets with Indian soldiers during the festival of Divali, along the disputed territory. It hosted senior British and Japanese officials in Beijing to smoothen ties. And it lifted restrictions on key Australian exports to China, like wine and lobster.

仅在过去一个月，中国就一直在取悦对未来美国政府的可靠性可能有不确定感的美国盟友和伙伴们。中印达成了缓解边境紧张局势的协议，排灯节期间，中国军队还在争议领土沿线与印度士兵交换糖果。中国为缓和关系在北京接待了英国和日本的高级官员。中国还取消了限制澳大利亚葡萄酒和龙虾等主要产品进口的做法。

Over the years, China has also doubled down on efforts to become more self-reliant on technology, investing billions into developing its own top-of-the-line chips. And China has continued to build up its military. Mr. Xi, in a show of strength earlier this week, inspected his country’s elite Airborne Corps, paratroopers trained to “liberate Taiwan.”

多年来，中国还一直在加倍努力实现技术自主，在研发国产高端芯片上投入了数百亿人民币。中国也在继续加强军事建设。为了展示实力，本周早些时候，习近平视察了中国精锐的空降兵部队，这支部队接受过“解放台湾”的训练。

China’s bid to insulate itself from a potential Trump shock, however, could be constrained by its weak economy, which has been battered by a property crisis. China was not nearly as vulnerable during the first Trump administration, and it may have fewer options to retaliate in a trade war.

然而，中国使自己免受特朗普带来的潜在冲击的努力，可能会受到本国疲软经济的制约，中国经济已受到了房地产危机的重创。在特朗普第一次执政期间，中国经济并不像现在这样脆弱，它也许在新一轮贸易战中没有那么多反制措施可选择。

Some voices in China are urging the country to exercise restraint. Jia Qingguo, a professor of international relations at Peking University, urged China to prepare for greater competition with the United States not only by investing in its military and economy, but also by avoiding accidental military conflict in the South China Sea and Taiwan and sidestepping unnecessary disputes with other countries.

中国国内的一些声音正在呼吁中国保持克制。北京大学国际关系学教授贾庆国呼吁中国为与美国展开更激烈的竞争做好准备，不仅要投资军事和经济，还要避免在南海和台湾发生意外的军事冲突，避免与其他国家发生不必要的争端。

But some Chinese analysts like Zhou Bo, a retired colonel in the People’s Liberation Army and a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy in Beijing, said that China was getting better at standing up to the United States because it has weathered the opposing styles of the first Trump presidency and the Biden administration.

但也有一些中国分析人士，比如中国人民解放军退役大校、清华大学国际安全与战略研究中心高级研究员周波说，中国在对抗美国方面正在做得越来越好，因为中国经受住了做法截然不同的特朗普第一个任期和拜登政府的考验。

China responded to Mr. Trump’s blustery Twitter diplomacy by introducing its own brand of muscular and acerbic statecraft known as “Wolf Warrior,” a nickname inspired by ultranationalistic Chinese action movies of the same name. And to counter President Biden’s democratic alliance building, China aggressively courted deeper ties with developing nations and with Russia. As the United States has built ties with Taiwan, China has ramped up exercises near it, including large-scale drills to encircle the island in a simulated blockade.

为回应特朗普当年气势汹汹的Twitter外交，中国推出了言辞强硬尖刻的“战狼”外交，这个称号来自中国同名的极端民族主义动作片。为了对抗拜登总统建设民主联盟的努力，中国积极寻求与发展中国家和俄罗斯建立更深层次的关系。随着美国与台湾加强关系，中国加大了在台湾周边军演的力度，包括最近的一次模拟封锁的大规模环台军演。

“Some people in China say Trump bashed China with a hammer and Biden cut China with a surgical knife,” Mr. Zhou said. “We have experienced both of them. But the trend is, China is gaining in strength, despite the stress.”

“有些中国人说，特朗普用锤子敲打中国，拜登用手术刀切割中国，”周波说。“这两种做法我们都经历过了。但趋势是，尽管面临压力，中国的实力仍在增强。”

白宫国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文今年8月在北京与中国最高外交官王毅举行会晤。

Ties had sunk to their lowest point in decades in early 2023 after the United States shot down a Chinese surveillance balloon as it floated over the United States. But the relationship had stabilized in the past year as the Biden administration has emphasized intensive diplomacy — dispatching the White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, to meet with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, several times.

2023年初，美国击落了一只飘至美国上空的中国侦察气球，两国关系跌到了几十年来的最低点。但随着拜登政府加强外交接触，派白宫国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文与中国最高外交官王毅举行多次会晤，两国关系在过去一年里曾趋于稳定。

Whether such engagement will continue under the new Trump administration will depend in part on whom Mr. Trump selects as his advisers. Those could include China hawks, such as Robert E. Lighthizer, the former U.S. trade representative. Depending on who is picked, his cabinet members might also restrain Mr. Trump’s transactional tendencies and instead advocate for a more ideological approach to China based on an opposition to the Chinese Communist Party’s authoritarian rule.

这种接触是否会在特朗普新一届政府领导下继续下去，将部分取决于特朗普选择什么人来当他的顾问。候选者可能包括对华鹰派人士，比如前美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽。不管谁被选中，特朗普的内阁成员中都可能有人会抑制他采取交易性做法的倾向，主张以反对中共独裁统治为基础、更多涉及意识形态的对华政策。

Parts of Mr. Trump’s agenda may turn out to be favorable to China. During his first term, Mr. Trump showed little interest in human rights, favoring trade and business deals first. In 2020, he told Axios that he shelved a plan to punish Chinese officials and entities linked to the internment of Uyghurs to avoid jeopardizing trade talks.

特朗普的部分议程可能最终对中国有利。在他的第一个任期内，特朗普对人权几乎没有兴趣，而是更多地倾向于贸易和商业交易。他曾在2020年告诉Axios网站，他搁置了一项惩罚与拘禁维吾尔人有关的中国官员和实体的计划，以避免危及贸易谈判。

Mr. Trump’s isolationist-leaning “America First” policy could also lead to Washington weakening its alliances around the world. That could give China an opportunity to fill the void and expand its global influence.

特朗普带有孤立主义倾向的“美国优先”政策也可能导致华盛顿削弱美国在世界各地的联盟。这会给中国机会，填补美国留下的空白，扩大它的全球影响力。

It remains to be seen how China will negotiate with Mr. Trump the second time around. With President Biden, China sought leverage by agreeing to work together on fentanyl and allowing members of its military to hold talks with American counterparts. It is unclear if Mr. Trump would value any of those concessions.

中国将如何与二次执政的特朗普进行谈判还有待观察。与拜登总统谈判时，中国寻求获得筹码的做法是同意在芬太尼问题上合作，允许中国军方与美国同行进行沟通。目前尚不清楚特朗普是否会认为这些让步是值得的。

On Wednesday, as Mr. Xi conveyed his congratulations to Mr. Trump on his electoral victory, he emphasized Beijing’s argument that confrontation would hurt both countries. Mr. Xi has sought to push back on efforts by the United States to define the relationship primarily by competition, seeing it as cover for a campaign to block China’s rise.

习近平周三致电特朗普，祝贺他当选美国总统。习近平在强调，中国政府认为对抗将损害两国的利益。习近平一直试图反击美国主要用竞争来界定两国关系的做法，认为那是阻止中国崛起的借口。

He said he hoped the leaders could “find a correct way for China and the United States to get along in the new era.”

习近平说，他希望两国领导人能够“走出一条新时期中美正确相处之道”。

Some Chinese scholars urged Beijing to move quickly to set up a meeting between Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump once he assumes office, noting that direct communication would be needed to manage differences.

一些中国学者呼吁中国政府迅速采取行动，安排习近平与特朗普在后者上任后举行会晤，指出应对分歧需要直接的沟通。

Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, noted that during Mr. Trump’s first term, Chinese officials underestimated the American leader, possibly because they were unfamiliar with his approach, but that they should be more prepared for his second term.

上海复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯指出，在特朗普的第一个任期内，中国官员低估了这位美国领导人，可能是因为他们不熟悉他的做法，但他们应该对他的第二个任期有更多的准备。

“This means being ready for negotiations as well as confrontations; both will be necessary, and we may need to engage in talks and conflicts simultaneously,” Mr. Wu said.

“这意味着既要做好谈判的准备，也要做好对抗的准备；两者都有必要，我们也许需要同时参与谈判和冲突，”吴心伯说。