In 2016, Taiwan’s president called Donald J. Trump to congratulate him after he won the presidential election. Mr. Trump took the call, becoming the first American president or president-elect to speak to a Taiwanese leader in decades.

2016年，台湾总统在特朗普赢得总统大选后致电向他表示祝贺。特朗普接听了电话，成为数十年来第一位与台湾领导人通话的美国总统或候任总统。

This time, after Mr. Trump won a second term in the White House, Taiwan was quick to deny reports that its current leader, Lai Ching-te, was seeking a similar phone call with the president-elect.

这一次，在特朗普赢得入主白宫的第二任期后，台湾迅速否认了有关其现任领导人赖清德寻求与候任总统特朗普进行类似通话的报道。

The contrast was telling.

对比非常明显。

Taiwan appears to be preparing for a more delicate, possibly testy, relationship with Mr. Trump upon his return to the White House. On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump had suggested that Taiwan should pay the United States for helping defend the island from China, and complained that Taiwan had stolen America’s business in semiconductors.

随着特朗普即将重返白宫，台湾似乎正准备与他建立更为微妙、可能也更为紧张的关系。在竞选期间，特朗普曾暗示台湾应该向美国支付保护费，并抱怨台湾窃取了美国的半导体业务。

“There is more anxiety this time” in Taiwan about Mr. Trump’s taking office, Chen Ming-chi, a former senior adviser on Taiwan’s National Security Council, said in an interview.

曾在台湾国家安全会议咨询委员的陈明祺在接受采访时表示，这次台湾对特朗普上任“更加焦虑”。

By “declaring that we are not going to seek a congratulatory phone call, that means we are more realistic,” said Professor Chen, who teaches at Taiwan’s National Tsing Hua University. Mr. Lai issued a congratulatory statement about Mr. Trump’s victory.

陈明祺现在台湾国立清华大学任教，他说：“表明我们宣布不寻求电话祝贺特朗普当选，这意味着我们更加现实了。”赖清德对特朗普的胜选发表了祝贺声明。

Tensions between Beijing and Taipei are high, with frequent Chinese military drills stoking fears of an accidental conflict. A call with Mr. Trump could prompt a forceful reaction from China, which claims the island as its territory and resents whenever Taiwan acts like, or is treated as, a sovereign nation.

北京和台北之间的关系非常紧张，中国频繁的军事演习引发了人们对意外冲突的担忧。与特朗普通话可能会引发中国的强烈反应，中国声称台湾是其领土，每当台湾表现得像一个主权国家或被当作一个主权国家对待时，中国都会感到不满。

For instance, that 2016 call between Mr. Trump and Tsai Ing-wen, who was then Taiwan’s president, drew condemnation from China. The United States had avoided leader-level contacts with Taiwan after it severed ties in 1979 to switch to recognition of China.

例如，2016年特朗普与时任台湾总统蔡英文的通话招致了中国的谴责。美国在1979年与台湾断绝关系转而承认中国后一直避免与台湾进行领导人级别的接触。

The call was only the first of several notable steps by Mr. Trump that bolstered U.S. support for Taiwan.

那次通话只是特朗普为加强美国对台湾的支持而采取的多个重大步骤中的第一个。

His administration later increased weapons sales to Taiwan and sent senior officials to visit, in defiance of Beijing’s complaints. Such moves gained Mr. Trump wide popularity in Taiwan even as much of the world soured on American leadership under him.

后来，特朗普政府不顾北京的抗议，增加了对台军售，并派高级官员访问台湾。这些举措让特朗普在台湾赢得了广泛支持，尽管世界大部分地区对他领导下的美国感到不满。

2020年，时任美国卫生与公众服务部部长亚历克斯·阿扎乘机抵达台北。在当时，阿扎的到访是1979年美台湾断交转而承认北京以来访台的最高级别美国官员。

Now, Taiwan is also on the receiving end of Mr. Trump’s bluntly transactional diplomacy. And the lack of formal relations means Taiwan’s president, Mr. Lai, won’t get to make his case in a face-to-face meeting with the new U.S. leader.

现在，台湾也成为了特朗普单刀直入的交易型外交的受害者。由于缺乏正式关系，台湾总统赖清德将无法与美国新领导人进行面对面会谈，陈述自己的观点。

Mr. Trump’s complaints about Taiwan’s military spending and semiconductor industry are adding to the pressure on Taiwan to buy more American weapons and increase investment in building chip plants in the United States.

特朗普对台湾军费开支和半导体行业的抱怨加大了台湾购买更多美国武器，以及增加在美国投资建设芯片厂的压力。

“You know, Taiwan, they stole our chip business, OK?” he said on a recent episode of “The Joe Rogan Experience,” a popular podcast. “They don’t pay us money for the protection, you know? The mob makes you pay money, right?”

“你知道，台湾，他们偷走了我们的芯片业务，好吗？”他在最近一期广受欢迎的播客《乔·罗根体验》中说道。“我们保护他们，他们不付钱，你知道吗？黑帮是要收保护费的，对吧？”

Professor Chen, the former security adviser, said Taiwan would have to adjust its approach to securing the support of the United States and its allies.

陈明祺教授表示，台湾必须调整其获取美国及其盟友支持的方式。

“In the past few years, we built our value on two things: democracy and chips,” he said. “But democracy is not a focus of the coming Trump administration, and the chips have turned from our advantage to a bit of a problem, because Trump says we are stealing jobs.”

“过去几年，我们的价值建立在两件事上：民主和芯片，”他说。“但民主并不是即将上任的特朗普政府的重点，而芯片已经从我们的优势变成了一个问题，因为特朗普说我们正在偷走（美国人的）工作。”

Taiwan’s trade may also suffer if President-elect Trump acts on vows to steeply increase tariffs on goods imported into the United States. And some in Taiwan worry that Mr. Trump may lose sight of the island’s concerns as he focuses on his relationship — part pugilistic, part admiring — with China’s strongman leader, Xi Jinping.

如果当选总统特朗普兑现承诺，大幅提高进口到美国的商品关税，台湾的贸易也可能会收到冲击。台湾一些人担心，特朗普可能会忽视台湾的担忧，因为他专注于跟中国强人领袖习近平之间时而强硬好斗、时而谄媚的关系。

Despite Taiwan’s lack of formal diplomatic relationship with Washington, it relies on U.S. support to counter China’s growing power and military pressure. The partnership deepened under President Trump in his first term and then under President Biden, while U.S. rivalry with China intensified.

尽管台湾与华盛顿没有正式的外交关系，但它依靠美国的支持来对抗中国日益增长的实力和军事压力。在特朗普总统的第一任期和拜登总统的任期内，美台伙伴关系不断加深，而美国与中国的竞争则加剧了。

Taiwanese officials have long sought to work closely with both Republicans and Democrats, and are sure to try to build bridges with Mr. Trump’s nominees for his next administration.

台湾官员长期以来一直寻求与共和党和民主党双方均密切合作，他们肯定会努力与特朗普下一届政府的提名人建立联系。

台湾总统赖清德上个月在桃园的一个海军基地。台湾一直面临着增加军费开支的压力。

Taiwan has already been raising its military spending, partly under pressure from Washington. This year’s proposed budget would increase Taiwan’s outlays on defense to about 2.6 percent of the island’s total economic output. But Mr. Trump has said that Taiwan should raise military spending to 10 percent of its gross domestic product.

台湾已增加了军费开支，部分原因是受到华盛顿的压力。今年的预算提案将使台湾的国防支出增加到经济总产出的2.6%左右。但特朗普表示，台湾的军费开支应增加到其GDP的10%。

Sharply increasing military spending could be politically difficult for Taiwan’s president, Mr. Lai. His party does not have a majority in the legislature, and Mr. Lai also wants to spend more on domestic priorities, such as green energy.

大幅增加军费开支对台湾总统赖清德来说可能在政治上非常困难。他的政党在立法院不占多数，而且他还希望在绿色能源等国内优先事项上投入更多资金。

Mr. Trump has signaled doubt as to how quickly and effectively the United States could help defend against a Chinese invasion. “Taiwan’s a tough situation,” Mr. Trump told The Washington Post. “Don’t forget, it’s 9,000 miles away” from the United States, he said.

对于美国能否在中国入侵台湾时提供迅速有效的帮助，特朗普表示过怀疑。“台湾的情况很棘手。”他在接受《华盛顿邮报》采访时说。“别忘了，台湾离美国有9000英里远。”

Such comments are “a certain way to say, listen, you have to increase your defense budget. That means you buy more American weapons,” said Miles Yu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who was a China policy adviser to Mike Pompeo, a secretary of state in the Trump administration.

这样的表述“无疑就是在说，听着，你必须增加国防预算。这意味着你要购买更多的美国武器”，哈德逊研究所高级研究员、曾担任特朗普政府国务卿迈克·庞皮欧中国政策顾问的余茂春说。

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, and the island’s other leading chip makers may face demands from the Trump administration to locate more production in the United States. (Industry experts have said that Mr. Trump’s accusation against Taiwan’s semiconductor makers is groundless, noting that the Taiwan companies merely provide manufacturing services to American chip giants.)

台积电和台湾其他主要芯片制造商可能会被特朗普政府要求将更多生产转移至美国。（行业专家表示，特朗普对台湾半导体制造商的指控毫无根据，并指出台湾公司只是为美国芯片巨头提供制造服务。）

位于台南的一个台积电大楼。芯片制造商可能会被特朗普政府要求将更多生产设在美国。

Last week, some Taiwanese officials played down the potential harm of the tariff plans, noting that Mr. Trump has threatened even higher tariffs on goods from China, which could open up opportunities for Taiwanese businesses.

上周，一些台湾官员淡化了关税计划的潜在危害，指出特朗普威胁要对来自中国的商品征收更高的关税，这可能会为台湾企业带来机会。

“For Taiwan, there are actually more pros than cons,” Liu Chin-ching, the minister in charge of Taiwan’s National Development Council, told lawmakers on Tuesday. Mr. Trump’s tariff proposals could drive more orders from China to Taiwan, and encourage Taiwanese manufacturers to leave China, he said.

“对台湾而言其实利多于弊，”台湾国家发展委员会主任委员刘镜清周二对立委表示。他说，特朗普的关税提议可能会让更多中国订单流向台湾，并鼓励台湾制造商离开中国。

“The United States will impose technology restrictions to defend its own interests,” Mr. Liu said, “but Taiwan will basically go along with these restrictions, and we believe that we will have opportunities to benefit from them.”

“美国也会做技术的限令，这是为了保障美国的利益，”刘镜清说，“但基本上台湾可以在这个技术限令中，我方认为有机会得到好处。”

Taiwan will also closely watch Mr. Trump’s response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

台湾还将密切关注特朗普对俄罗斯与乌克兰战争的反应。

Taiwan’s government has supported American aid to Ukraine, presenting it as proof of united resistance to authoritarian threats, whether from Moscow or possibly Beijing.

台湾政府支持美国对乌克兰的援助，将其作为团结抵抗威权威胁的证据，无论这一威胁是来自莫斯科还是北京。

But Mr. Trump has said that he wants to quickly end that war. An abrupt reduction in help for Ukraine may shake Taiwanese confidence, several experts said.

但特朗普表示，他希望迅速结束这场战争。多位专家表示，对乌克兰援助的突然减少可能会动摇台湾的信心。

“Taiwan’s leaders will view Trump’s handling of Ukraine as an early warning for whether and how Trump would stand up to Chinese pressure on Taiwan in the event of crisis,” said Ryan Hass, a former director for China at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama.

“台湾领导人将把特朗普对乌克兰的处理视为一个预警，看看在危机发生时，特朗普是否会以及如何顶住中国对台湾的压力，”曾任奥巴马总统国家安全委员会中国事务主任的瑞安·哈斯表示。

Beijing, for its part, appears poised to exploit any signs of discord between Washington and Taipei, pressing its message that Taiwanese people cannot rely on the United States — and should accept unification with China.

北京似乎准备利用华盛顿和台北之间任何不和的迹象，强调台湾人不能依赖美国——而应该接受与中国的统一。

“Whether the United States wants to ‘protect Taiwan’ or ‘harm Taiwan,’ I believe that most Taiwanese compatriots have made their own rational judgments,” said Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman in Beijing for the Chinese government office that deals with Taiwan.

“美国究竟是想‘保台’还是‘害台’，相信大部分台湾同胞已经作出理智判断，”中国国台办发言人朱凤莲表示。

Taiwanese people, Ms. Zhu added, “clearly know that the United States always pursues ‘America First’ and Taiwan may change from a ‘pawn’ to a ‘sacrificed piece’ at any time.”

朱凤莲还说，台湾人民“清楚知道美国奉行的永远是‘美国优先’，台湾随时可能从‘棋子’变成‘弃子’”。