Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been pushing President Trump to continue the war against Iran, arguing that the U.S.-Israeli military campaign presents a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East, according to people briefed by American officials on the conversations.

数名知情人士透露，在过去一周的一系列谈话中，沙特阿拉伯实际领导人穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼王储一直在敦促特朗普总统继续对伊朗的战争，他认为，美以军事行动为重塑中东提供了一个“历史性机遇”。这些知情人士是通过美方官员了解到这些对话的。

In a series of conversations over the last week, Prince Mohammed has conveyed to Mr. Trump that he must press toward the destruction of Iran’s hard-line government, the people familiar with the conversations said.

知情人士说，穆罕默德王储向特朗普传达的信息是：必须坚持彻底摧毁伊朗的强硬派政府。

Prince Mohammed, the people familiar with the discussions said, has argued that Iran poses a long-term threat to the Gulf that can only be eliminated by getting rid of the government.

熟悉讨论内容的人士表示，穆罕默德王储认为，伊朗对海湾地区构成长期威胁，只有推翻其政府才能消除这一威胁。

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel also views Iran as a long-term threat, but analysts say Israeli officials would probably view a failed Iranian state that is too caught up in internal turmoil to menace Israel as a win, while Saudi Arabia views a failed state in Iran as a grave and direct security threat.

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡同样将伊朗视为长期威胁，但分析人士指出，以色列官员可能认为，一个陷入严重内乱而无力威胁以色列的失败伊朗政权就是胜利；而沙特阿拉伯则认为伊朗成为失败国家将构成严重而直接的安全威胁。

But senior officials in both the Saudi and American governments worry that if the conflict drags on, Iran could deliver ever more punishing attacks on Saudi oil installations and the United States could be stuck in an endless war.

然而，沙特和美国两国政府的高级官员都担心，如果冲突持续下去，伊朗可能对沙特石油设施发动更具破坏性的袭击，而美国则可能陷入一场无休止的战争。

In public, Mr. Trump has swung wildly between suggesting that the war could end soon and signaling it would escalate. On Monday, the president posted on social media that his administration and Iran had held “productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities,” though Iran disputed the idea that negotiations were underway.

在公开场合，特朗普在“战争可能很快结束”和“战争将会升级”之间大幅摇摆。周一，特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，他的政府与伊朗进行了“富有成效的对话，讨论全面彻底解决敌对状态”，但伊朗否认正在进行谈判。

The consequences of the war for Saudi Arabia’s economy and national security are enormous. Iranian drone and missile attacks, launched in response to the American-Israeli assault on Iran, have already created huge disruptions in the oil market.

这场战争对沙特阿拉伯的经济和国家安全影响巨大。作为对美以袭击伊朗的回应，伊朗发射的无人机和导弹已对石油市场造成严重扰乱。

Saudi officials rejected the idea that Prince Mohammed has pushed to prolong the war.

沙特官员否认穆罕默德王储曾推动延长战争。

“The kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always supported a peaceful resolution to this conflict, even before it began,” the Saudi government said in a statement, noting that officials “remain in close contact with the Trump administration and our commitment remains unchanged.”

沙特政府在一份声明中表示：“沙特阿拉伯王国始终支持和平解决这场冲突，甚至在冲突开始之前就是如此。”声明指出，沙特官员“与特朗普政府保持密切联系，我们的立场没有改变”。

“Our primary concern today is to defend ourselves from the daily attacks on our people and our civilian infrastructure,” the government added. “Iran has chosen dangerous brinkmanship over serious diplomatic solutions. This harms every stakeholder involved but none more than Iran itself.”

声明还补充说：“我们目前最关心的是保护自己免受针对我国人民和民用基础设施的日常袭击。伊朗选择了危险的边缘政策，而不是严肃的外交解决方案。这伤害了所有相关方，但受损最严重的正是伊朗自身。”

Mr. Trump has at times seemed open to winding down the war, but Prince Mohammed has argued that would be a mistake, the people briefed on the conversations said, and has pressed for attacks against Iran’s energy infrastructure to weaken the government in Tehran.

熟悉对话内容的人士表示，特朗普有时似乎愿意结束战争，但穆罕默德王储认为这将是错误之举，并敦促对伊朗能源基础设施发动攻击，以削弱德黑兰政府。

This article is based on interviews with people who have had conversations with American officials, and who described the discussions on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of Mr. Trump’s talks with world leaders. The New York Times interviewed people with a variety of views on the wisdom of continuing the war and of Prince Mohammed’s role in advising Mr. Trump.

本文基于对曾与美国官员交谈的人士的采访，他们因特朗普与各国领导人谈话的敏感性而要求匿名。《纽约时报》采访的人士立场各异，他们对是否应继续战争，以及穆罕默德王储在向特朗普提供建议方面扮演了何种角色，各自持有不同的看法。

本月无人机袭击后，卫星图像显示沙特阿拉伯拉斯塔努拉炼油厂冒出浓烟。

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said the administration “does not comment on the president’s private conversations.”

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特表示，政府“不对总统的私下谈话发表评论”。

Prince Mohammed, an authoritarian royal who has led a sustained crackdown on dissent, is respected by Mr. Trump and has previously influenced the president’s decision-making. Prince Mohammed has argued that the United States should consider putting troops in Iran to seize energy infrastructure and force the government out of power, according to the people briefed by U.S. officials.

穆罕默德是一名推行持续镇压异见人士的威权王储，深受特朗普尊重，并曾多次影响美国总统的决策。据了解美方官员情况的人士透露，穆罕默德王储主张美国应考虑派兵进入伊朗，夺取能源基础设施并迫使伊朗政府下台。

In recent days, Mr. Trump has given more serious consideration to a military operation to seize Kharg Island, the hub of Iran’s oil infrastructure. Such an operation, with airborne Army forces or an amphibious assault by Marines, would be immensely dangerous.

最近几天，特朗普已开始认真考虑对伊朗石油基础设施枢纽——哈尔克岛发动军事行动。这样一场行动——无论是陆军空降部队还是海军陆战队两栖突击——都将极其危险。

But Prince Mohammed has advocated ground operations in his conversations with Mr. Trump, according to people briefed by American officials.

但据了解美方官员情况的人士透露，穆罕默德王储在与特朗普的谈话中主张进行地面作战。

The Saudi views of the war are shaped by economic factors as much as political ones. Since the war began, Iran’s retaliatory attacks have largely choked off the Strait of Hormuz, hobbling the region’s energy industry. The vast majority of Saudi, Emirati and Kuwaiti oil must pass through the strait to reach international markets.

沙特对这场战争的看法受经济因素的影响与政治因素同样大。自战争爆发以来，伊朗的报复性袭击已基本封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，使该地区能源产业陷入瘫痪。沙特、阿联酋和科威特绝大部分石油都必须通过该海峡才能进入国际市场。

While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have built pipelines to circumvent the strait, those alternative routes have come under attack as well.

虽然沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋已修建了绕过海峡的管道，但这些替代路线也遭到了袭击。

Analysts familiar with Saudi government thinking say that while Prince Mohammed probably preferred to avoid a war, he is concerned that if Mr. Trump pulls back now, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Middle East will be left to confront an emboldened and furious Iran on their own.

熟悉沙特政府思路的分析人士表示，虽然穆罕默德王储可能原本希望避免战争，但他担心如果特朗普现在退缩，沙特阿拉伯和中东其他国家将不得不独自面对一个更加胆大妄为且愤怒的伊朗。

In this view, they say, a half-finished offensive would expose Saudi Arabia to frequent Iranian attacks. Such a scenario could also leave Iran with the power to periodically close the Strait of Hormuz.

他们认为，半途而废的进攻将使沙特阿拉伯频繁遭受伊朗袭击。这种局面也可能让伊朗保留定期关闭霍尔木兹海峡的能力。

“Saudi officials certainly want the war to end, but how it ends matters,” said Yasmine Farouk, director of the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project for the International Crisis Group.

“沙特官员当然希望战争结束，但如何结束非常重要，”国际危机组织海湾与阿拉伯半岛项目主任亚斯敏·法鲁克说。

A 2019 Iran-backed attack on Saudi oil facilities — which briefly knocked out half of the kingdom’s oil production — pushed the prince to reconsider his antagonistic approach to the Islamic Republic.

2019年伊朗支持的对沙特石油设施的袭击曾短暂导致该国一半石油产量中断，这促使王储重新思考他对伊朗伊斯兰共和国的对抗性政策。

Saudi officials later pursued a diplomatic détente, re-establishing relations with Iran in 2023, in part because they realized that their country’s alliance with the United States offered only partial protection from Iran, Saudi officials have said.

沙特官员后来寻求外交缓和，于2023年与伊朗恢复外交关系，他们曾表示，部分原因在于他们意识到与美国的联盟只能提供部分保护。

Other countries in the region, including the United Arab Emirates, also pursued warmer relations with Iran in the past few years for similar reasons.

该地区其他国家，包括阿拉伯联合酋长国，过去几年也出于类似原因寻求与伊朗改善关系。

After Mr. Trump’s decision to go to war, against the advice of several Gulf governments, Iran responded by shooting thousands of missiles and drones at countries in the region, derailing their efforts to bring Iran into their fold, Gulf officials have said.

在特朗普不顾几个海湾国家政府的劝告决定开战后，伊朗以向该地区各国发射数千枚导弹和无人机作为回应，海湾国家官员表示，这彻底破坏了它们将伊朗拉入阵营的努力。

“What little trust there was before has completely been shattered,” Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, told reporters last week.

“此前仅存的一点信任已完全破裂，”沙特外交大臣费萨尔·本·法尔汉亲王上周对记者说。

本周一遭美以空袭后的德黑兰。

Saudi Arabia has a large stockpile of Patriot interceptors that it is using to protect itself from the barrage of Iranian attacks that have rained down on its oil fields, refineries and cities.

沙特阿拉伯拥有大量“爱国者”拦截导弹库存，目前正用其保护自己免受伊朗对油田、炼油厂和城市发动的密集袭击。

But interceptors are in short supply globally. Drone and missile attacks in Saudi Arabia have already struck a refinery and the U.S. embassy, while fragments from intercepted projectiles have killed two Bangladeshi migrant workers and injured more than a dozen other foreign residents.

但全球拦截导弹供应短缺。在沙特的无人机和导弹袭击已击中一座炼油厂和美国大使馆，而被拦截的导弹碎片已造成两名孟加拉国移民工人死亡，另外还导致十多名外国居民受伤。

Since the beginning of the war, Mr. Netanyahu has pushed for military operations that could force the collapse of Iran’s government. U.S. officials have focused on degrading the country’s missile and naval capabilities and have been more skeptical that the hard-line government in Iran can be driven from power.

自战争开始以来，内塔尼亚胡一直推动可能迫使伊朗政府崩溃的军事行动。而美国官员则更侧重于削弱伊朗的导弹和海军能力，对强硬派政府能否被赶下台持更怀疑的态度。

Though Israeli strikes have killed a large number of leaders, the hard-line government remains in control.

尽管以色列的打击已杀死大量伊朗领导人，但强硬派政府仍掌控局面。

Saudi officials have long expressed concerns that a failed state in Iran poses a grave threat to them, analysts say. They fear that even if Iran’s government fell, elements of the military — or militias that could emerge in the power vacuum — would continue to attack the kingdom and are likely to focus on oil targets.

分析人士表示，沙特官员长期以来一直担心，一个失败的伊朗国家对他们构成严重威胁。他们担心即使伊朗政府倒台，其军队残部或权力真空中新出现的民兵组织仍将继续攻击沙特王国，并很可能将目标锁定在石油设施上。

Some government intelligence analysts have told other officials that they think Prince Mohammed sees the war as an opportunity for him to increase Saudi Arabia’s influence throughout the Middle East, and that he believes Saudi Arabia can protect itself even if the war continues.

一些政府情报分析人士告诉其他官员，他们认为穆罕默德王储将这场战争视为提升沙特阿拉伯在中东影响力的机会，并相信即使战争持续，沙特也有能力保护自己。

In conversations with Prince Mohammed, Mr. Trump has raised worries about the price of oil and the damage it is doing to the economy. The Saudi leader has assured him that is only temporary, according to people briefed by American officials.

在与穆罕默德王储的谈话中，特朗普表达了对油价上涨及其对经济造成损害的担忧。据了解美方官员情况的人士透露，沙特领导人向他保证，这只是暂时的。

But American and regional officials are deeply skeptical that oil markets will quickly recover from the war. Saudi Arabia cannot make up the shortfalls caused by the war because its overland pipeline can only carry a fraction of the oil that normally transits through the Strait of Hormuz, economists say.

但美国和地区官员都深表怀疑，认为石油市场不会很快从战争中恢复。经济学家表示，沙特阿拉伯无法弥补战争造成的石油短缺，因为其陆上管道的输送能力与正常通过霍尔木兹海峡的输送量难以相提并论。

While Saudi Arabia is better positioned than the other Gulf countries to weather the closure of the strait, it could face dire ramifications if the waterway is not reopened soon.

虽然沙特阿拉伯比其他海湾国家更有能力承受海峡关闭，但如果这条水道不能尽快重新开放，它仍将面临严重后果。

Even before the war began, Prince Mohammed was facing serious financial challenges as he approached the 2030 deadline he had set for himself to transform Saudi Arabia into a global business hub. His government is forecasting budget deficits for several years to come as ambitious megaprojects and vast investments in artificial intelligence strain the country’s limited resources.

甚至在战争爆发之前，穆罕默德王储就已面临严重的财政挑战，因为2030年他为自己设定的将沙特转变为全球商业枢纽的期限日益临近。由于雄心勃勃的大型项目和在人工智能领域的大量投资耗费了该国有限的资源，沙特政府预计未来几年将持续出现预算赤字。

A prolonged war with Iran would put all of that at risk. The prince’s success hinges on creating a secure environment for investors and tourists.

一场旷日持久的伊朗战争将使这一切面临风险。王储的成功取决于为投资者和游客创造一个安全的环境。

Asked last week whether the Saudi government preferred an immediate end to the war or a longer conflict in which Iran’s capabilities were degraded, Prince Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, told reporters that the only thing that officials cared about was halting Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries.

上周，当被问及沙特政府是希望战争立即结束，还是进行一场能削弱伊朗能力的较长期冲突时，沙特外交大臣费萨尔亲王对记者表示，官员们唯一关心的是让伊朗停止对沙特阿拉伯和邻国的袭击。

“We’re going to use every lever we have — political, economic, diplomatic and else-wise — to get these attacks to stop,” Prince Faisal said.

“我们将动用一切手段——政治、经济、外交以及其他一切手段——来让这些袭击停止，”费萨尔亲王说。