Two weeks into a war against Iran that he chose to launch, President Trump faces a stark choice — stay in the battle to achieve the dauntingly ambitious goals he has set, or try to extract himself from an expanding and intensifying conflict that is generating damaging military, diplomatic and economic shock waves.

在他主动对伊朗发起的这场战争已经过去两周之际，特朗普总统面临着一个严峻的选择——是继续战斗以实现他所设定的那些令人生畏的宏伟目标，还是设法从这场不断扩大且愈演愈烈的冲突中抽身，而这场冲突正产生具有破坏性的军事、外交和经济冲击波。

He has quickly discovered that both options are deeply problematic, littered with consequences that he and his team downplayed when he plunged the United States, alongside Israel, into the biggest war in the Middle East in nearly a quarter-century.

他很快发现，这两个选项都极具挑战，且会导致严重后果——而在他带领美国与以色列一同投入这场中东近四分之一个世纪以来最大的战争时，他和他的团队曾表示无需过分担心这些后果。

He can continue to fight a weakened enemy that has nevertheless proved adept at extracting a fast-rising economic price for the United States and its allies, tying the global energy markets in knots and striking a dozen countries across the region.

他可以选择继续作战，敌人已被削弱，但仍证明自己善于让美国及其盟友付出快速飙升的经济代价。他们正将全球能源市场搅得混乱不堪，并袭击了该地区的十几个国家。

Battling on would put more American lives at risk, accelerate the financial costs and risk further fraying alliances. There is angst within Mr. Trump’s political base over the sharp departure from his pledge to avoid entangling the nation in more wars.

继续战斗将使更多美国人的生命处于危险之中，加剧财政成本，并可能导致盟友关系的进一步破裂。特朗普的政治基本盘本身也出现了不安，因为这与其避免让国家陷入更多战争的承诺背道而驰。

Or he can begin to pull back, even though most of his objectives — including assuring that Iran never again possesses the capability to produce a nuclear weapon — are not yet met. The biggest military accomplishments of the joint U.S.-Israel action so far, officials say, have been wiping out much of Iran’s missile arsenal and air defenses and crippling its navy. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s brutal leader for nearly 40 years, is dead.

或者，他可以开始撤军，尽管他的大部分目标——包括确保伊朗永远不再具备生产核武器的能力——尚未实现。官员们表示，到目前为止，美以联合行动最大的军事成果是摧毁了伊朗大部分导弹库和防空系统，并瘫痪了其海军。执政近40年的伊朗残暴领导人阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊已经身亡。

But an emboldened theocracy is still in power, apparently commanded by the ayatollah’s injured son, who has already sworn to continue deploying Iran’s asymmetrical capabilities, from cyberattacks to planting sea mines and conducting missile strikes on targets in the region. The powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps paramilitary force and the militias that killed thousands of protesting Iranians on the streets in January remain in place.

然而，一个更加激进的神权政权仍在掌权，显然由哈梅内伊受伤的儿子指挥。他已经宣誓将继续部署伊朗的不对称作战能力，包括网络攻击、布设水雷以及对该地区目标进行导弹袭击。在1月份杀害数千名伊朗抗议者的强大准军事组织——伊斯兰革命卫队及其民兵组织依然纹丝不动。

周日美以联军在德黑兰发动空袭的现场。

Moreover, if Mr. Trump leaves now, the stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel that is at the heart of fears that Iran could manufacture 10 or more nuclear weapons would remain inside Iranian territory, within reach of a wounded Iranian government that may be more motivated than ever to turn that fuel into weapons. “People are going to have to go and get it,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said just as the war began, alluding to a ground operation to retrieve the material from deep underground storage in the heart of Iran, an immensely risky operation that Mr. Trump has said he is considering but not ready to order.

此外，如果特朗普现在撤军，那批处于恐惧核心的、接近武器级的核燃料仍将留在伊朗境内。人们担心伊朗可能利用这些燃料制造10枚或更多核武器，而一个受创的伊朗政府可能比以往任何时候都更有动力将这些燃料武器化。“必须有人去把它取回来，”国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥在战争刚开始时说道，他暗指要进行地面行动，从伊朗心脏地带的深层地下仓库中回收这些材料。特朗普曾表示他正在考虑这项极具风险的行动，但尚未准备下达命令。

As the war enters its third week, the consequences are widening. Thirteen Americans have been killed in action. More than 2,100 people have been killed since the start of the war, most in Iran. More than 1,348 civilians there had been killed as of Wednesday, according to Iran’s representative to the United Nations.

随着战争进入第三周，其影响正在扩大。已有13名美军士兵阵亡。自战争开始以来，已有2100多人丧生，其中大多数在伊朗。根据伊朗驻联合国代表的数据，截至周三，已有超过1348名伊朗平民遇难。

The United States is deploying 2,500 Marines to the Middle East, adding to the 50,000 already there, after U.S. forces attacked Kharg Island, the huge shipping port for the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports.

在美军袭击了伊朗绝大部分石油出口的枢纽——哈尔克岛之后，美国正向中东增派2500名海军陆战队成员，使驻军总数达到5.25万人。

Despite Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s assertion that Iran’s success in threatening shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was nothing to worry about, that vital waterway remains all but shut down, choking off a big chunk of global trade, especially in oil. By Saturday, Mr. Trump appealed on social media for China, France, Japan, South Korea and Britain to send naval forces to secure the strait, his first public acknowledgment that keeping the vital waterway open could require help and more resources than the United States has in the region now.

尽管国防部长皮特·海格塞斯声称伊朗威胁霍尔木兹海峡航运的企图不足为虑，但这一至关重要的水道目前几乎处于关闭状态，扼杀了全球很大一部分贸易，尤其是石油贸易。到周六，特朗普在社交媒体上呼吁中国、法国、日本、韩国和英国派遣海军力量来保卫海峡。这是他首次公开承认，维持这一重要水道的开放可能需要比美国目前在区域内更多的资源和外部帮助。

By Saturday, plumes of smoke were seen rising from a major oil trading port in the United Arab Emirates after a drone attack. To alleviate price hikes, the United States even suspended sanctions against some Russian oil sales. The U.S. Embassy in Iraq has been attacked twice in recent days.

截至周六，阿联酋一个主要的石油贸易港口在遭到无人机袭击后升起了烟柱。为了缓解油价上涨，美国甚至暂停了对部分俄罗斯石油销售的制裁。驻伊拉克美国大使馆在最近几天也遭到了两次袭击。

Mr. Trump has wrestled publicly with his stay-or-leave options, sometimes suggesting that the war is all but won and at others seeming to acknowledge that there is still heavy fighting ahead. The president, who said he ordered the attack because he had a “good feeling” that Iran was preparing to preemptively attack U.S. forces in the region, said the other day that he would also rely on his instincts on when to get out. He told Fox News he would “feel it in my bones.”

特朗普一直在公开纠结于“留还是走”的选择，有时暗示战争几乎已经获胜，有时又似乎承认前方仍有激战。这位自称因“预感”伊朗正准备对美军发动先发制人攻击而下令开战的总统，前几天表示他也会依靠直觉来决定何时撤离。他告诉福克斯新闻，他会“凭骨子里的感觉”做决定。

The second week of the war brought a recognition by the Trump administration that Iran’s willingness and ability to disrupt the global economy by choking off the Strait of Hormuz was greater than officials had anticipated, as was Tehran’s capacity to widen the war across the region, according to interviews with officials in the United States and Israel, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters.

根据对美以官员（其中许多人要求匿名以讨论国家安全事务）的采访，战争的第二周让特朗普政府意识到，伊朗阻断霍尔木兹海峡以扰乱全球经济的意愿和能力超出了官员们的预期，德黑兰将战争扩大到整个地区的能力也同样惊人。

伊朗仍由一个日益嚣张的神权政权掌权，该政权显然由阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊受伤的儿子领导，阿里·哈梅内伊本人已在战争初期阵亡。

Even as Mr. Trump repeatedly suggested that the war was almost won, the United States and Israel continued to step up the tempo of their operations and the United States continued to move more military resources into the region. There were signs that the U.S.-Israel partnership was undergoing strains. And some Republicans worried that Mr. Trump’s political base — deeply suspicious of foreign interventions — could fracture if the American commitment grows and U.S. casualties mounted.

尽管特朗普多次暗示战争即将胜利，但美国和以色列仍在继续加快行动节奏，美国也在向该地区运送更多军事资源。有迹象表明，美以伙伴关系正面临压力。一些共和党人担心，如果美国的投入增加且伤亡人数上升，特朗普那些对海外干预深表怀疑的基本盘可能会发生分裂。

Mr. Trump’s aides maintain that 14 days into a complex military operation is far too early to judge results. And they insist that Mr. Trump is prepared to tough it out.

特朗普的助手们坚称，对于一项复杂的军事行动来说，开战14天就评判结果还为时过早。他们坚信特朗普已经做好了挺过去的准备。

“He made the decision to take the short-term risk to oil prices for the long-term benefit of wiping out the threat that Iran poses to the United States,” Karoline Leavitt, the president’s press secretary, said on Saturday. “He is wise enough to know that operations like these are judged by their outcomes. And if the U.S. can say the Iranian military capability is wiped out, the president knows that will be one of the greatest accomplishments of any president in modern times.”

“他做出决定承受油价的短期风险，是为了换取彻底消除伊朗对美国威胁的长期利益，”总统新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特周六表示。“他足够聪明，知道这类行动是以结果论英雄的。如果美国能表明伊朗的军事能力已被铲除，总统知道那将是现代任何一位总统最伟大的成就之一。”

She concluded: “The president is dug in to ensure the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are fully achieved.”

她总结道：“总统正全力以赴，确保‘史诗愤怒行动’的目标全面实现。”

Even if Mr. Trump is right, the effects will be felt for years, or decades. Hoshyar Zebari, a former foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Iraq, said that while he believed the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was the “end of an era” for the region, he was not convinced that it meant the end of Iran’s theocratic Islamic Republic.

即使特朗普是对的，其影响也将持续数年甚至数十年。伊拉克前外交部长及副总理霍希亚尔·泽巴里表示，虽然他认为杀死哈梅内伊是该地区“一个时代的终结”，但他并不认为这意味着伊朗的神权伊斯兰共和国的终结。

“They are resisting, they are resilient,” he said. “This is a war between technology and ideology. The Iranians are squeezed, and their situation is difficult, but for them, this is ‘to be or not to be’.”

“他们在抵抗，他们很有韧性，”他说。“这是一场技术与意识形态之间的战争。伊朗人正承受压力，处境艰难，但对他们来说，这是‘生存还是毁灭’的问题。”

Reopening the Strait?

重新开放海峡？

At a meeting in the Oval Office last week, a frustrated Mr. Trump pressed Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about why the United States could not immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

在上周白宫椭圆形办公室的一次会议上，感到沮丧的特朗普质问参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军，为什么美国不能立即重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

The answer was straightforward: Even one Iranian soldier or militia member zipping across the narrow neck of the strait in a speedboat could fire a mobile missile right into a slow-moving supertanker, or plant a limpet mine on its hull.

答案很简单：即便只有一名伊朗士兵或民兵驾驶快艇穿过狭窄的海峡颈部，也能向缓慢行驶的超级油轮发射移动导弹，或在其船体上安装吸附雷。

With oil already hovering around $100 a barrel, and insurance premiums for transiting the Persian Gulf surging, the image of more burning tankers would make the Iranians look more powerful than they really are. Already, having seen Iran attack shipping around the strait, tanker owners are refusing to take the risk, even after Mr. Trump declared on Fox last Sunday that they should “show some guts.”

随着油价已在每桶100美元左右徘徊，且穿行波斯湾的保险费飙升，更多油轮着火的画面会使伊朗人看起来比实际更强大。目睹了伊朗在海峡周边的袭击后，油轮船东们拒绝冒险，即便特朗普上周日在福克斯新闻上宣称他们应该“拿出点胆量来”。

上周，霍尔木兹海峡附近的油轮。该海峡的航运几乎陷入停滞，导致全球经济受到拖累。

By the Pentagon’s metrics — “total air dominance,” as Mr. Hegseth put it, plus the sinking of much of Iran’s navy and the destruction of hundreds of missiles and launchers — the U.S. military is ahead of schedule.

按照五角大楼的指标——如海格塞斯所说的“完全制空权”，加上击沉了伊朗大部分海军并摧毁了数百枚导弹和发射器——美军的进度是超前的。

“Iran has no air defenses, Iran has no air force, Iran has no navy,” Mr. Hegseth told reporters during a Pentagon briefing. Iran is now firing 90 percent fewer missiles than at the start of the war, the Pentagon reported, and 95 percent fewer one-way attack drones.

“伊朗没有防空系统，没有空军，没有海军，”海格塞斯在五角大楼简报会上告诉记者。五角大楼报告称，伊朗现在的导弹发射量比战争开始时减少了90%，自杀式无人机减少了95%。

“Never before has a modern capable military, which Iran used to have, been so quickly destroyed and made combat-ineffective,” Mr. Hegseth told reporters on Friday.

“从未有一支像伊朗这样具备现代化能力的军队，如此迅速地被摧毁并失去战斗力，”海格塞斯周五说道。

But the problem is that the destruction of its conventional forces has not eliminated Iran’s ability to sow chaos, even in its weakened state. And, five years into dealing with Mr. Trump, the Iranians appear to understand that soaring oil prices and declining stock markets can be powerful pressure points on him.

但问题在于，常规力量的毁灭并未消除伊朗制造混乱的能力，即便是在其虚弱的状态下。而且，在与特朗普打交道五年后，伊朗人似乎明白，飙升的油价和下跌的股市是对特朗普最有力的压力点。

The strait was Exhibit A in Iran’s ability to seize an asymmetric advantage. Despite ramped-up strikes in recent days against what little is left of the Iranian Navy, traffic through the strait has come to a near halt. A New York Times analysis concluded that as of Thursday, at least 16 oil tankers, cargo ships and other commercial vessels had been attacked in the Persian Gulf, including three in the narrowest part of the strait.

霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗夺取不对称优势能力的“证物A”。尽管最近几天加大了对伊朗海军残余力量的打击，但海峡的航运已近乎停滞。《纽约时报》的一项分析得出结论，截至周四，波斯湾至少有16艘油轮、货船和其他商业船舶遭到袭击，其中三艘发生在海峡最狭窄处。

The one solution being discussed the most is having the U.S. Navy escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz — a costly and risky operation and one that administration officials conceded was probably weeks away. The United States would need to assemble even more ships and defensive equipment, and conduct further assaults on the Iranian weaponry that menaces the strait.

目前讨论最多的解决方案是让美国海军为通过海峡的商船护航——这是一项耗资巨大且风险极高的行动，政府官员承认这可能还需要数周时间。美国需要集结更多的船只和防御设备，并对威胁海峡的伊朗武器进行进一步打击。

Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of the U.S. Central Command, which is carrying out the war effort, flew to Washington for a two-hour meeting on Thursday night at the Pentagon with Mr. Hegseth and General Caine to discuss strategy and additional forces.

负责此次战争行动的美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将周四晚飞抵华盛顿，在五角大楼与海格塞斯和凯恩将军进行了两小时的会议，讨论战略和增兵事宜。

The next day, U.S. officials said that about 2,500 Marines aboard as many as three warships were cutting short a tour in the Indo-Pacific to rush to the Middle East. Military officials declined to say what missions the Marines would be assigned, but they are equipped to help secure the strait or potentially join an operation to seize Kharg Island, should Mr. Trump order them into action.

次日，美国官员表示，最多可达三艘军舰上的约2500名海军陆战队员提前结束了在印太地区的部署，正赶往中东。军方拒绝透露这些士兵将承担什么任务，但他们配备的装备足以帮助保卫海峡，或者如果特朗普下令，他们可能会参与夺取哈尔克岛的行动。

On Sunday, a senior U.S. military official said there would be an international effort to ensure the flow of oil and goods through the strait.

周日，一名美国军方高级官员表示，将通过国际协作来确保石油和商品的流通。

油价徘徊在每桶100美元左右，汽油价格也大幅上涨。

But while American leaders were bringing in reinforcements, so were the Iranians — of a different kind. Iran built up a talented cybercorps after the United States and Israel mounted a sophisticated cyberattack on the country’s nuclear centrifuges more than 16 years ago. Now Iran’s hackers were being called into service, directed at targets in both Israel and the United States.

然而，在美国领导人引入援军的同时，伊朗人也在引入另一种不同类型的援军。自16多年前美以对伊朗核离心机发动复杂的网络攻击以来，伊朗建立了一支极具才能的网络军团。现在，伊朗的黑客正被征召入伍，目标直指以色列和美国。

One of the most conspicuous of those affected was Stryker Corporation, a maker of advanced medical equipment in Michigan. Its systems were brought down last week, and an organization of hackers called Handala claimed responsibility, saying that it was in retaliation for the strike on an elementary school outside a military base in southern Iran in which, according to Iranian officials, at least 175 people died, mostly children. (The Times has reported that a preliminary finding by the U.S. military indicates that a Tomahawk missile, launched by U.S. forces, was responsible for the school strike.)

受影响最明显的公司之一是位于密歇根州、生产先进医疗设备的史赛克公司。该公司的系统上周瘫痪，一个名为Handala的黑客组织宣称对此负责，称这是对伊朗南部军事基地外一所小学遭袭事件的报复。根据伊朗官员的说法，那次袭击造成至少175人死亡，其中大多数是儿童。（《纽约时报》报道称，美国军方的一项初步调查结果显示，袭击学校的是一枚由美军发射的“战斧”巡航导弹。）

And then there were a series of terrorist attacks inside the United States that were attributed to individuals who might have been inspired by the American and Israeli attacks on Iran and Lebanon, though the evidence so far is murky. On Thursday, a man yelling “Allahu akbar” opened fire at Old Dominion University in Virginia before being killed, and in Michigan, a naturalized American citizen born in Lebanon rammed his vehicle into a reform synagogue that is home to a school before killing himself.

此外，美国境内发生了一系列恐怖袭击，据称袭击者受美以袭击伊朗和黎巴嫩军事行动的激发，尽管目前证据仍然不明确。周四，一名高呼“真主至大”的男子在弗吉尼亚州欧道明大学开枪，后被击毙；在密歇根州，一名黎巴嫩出生的美国归化公民驾车冲撞一所设有学校的改革派犹太会堂后自杀。

New Strains With Israel

与以色列之间的新摩擦

In the days leading up to the war in late February, senior Israeli officials told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that if the initial strike against Iran succeeded in killing a large portion of the Iranian security establishment, including the supreme leader, there was a good chance that protests against the government would erupt again quickly.

在2月底战争爆发前的几天里，以色列高级官员告诉总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，如果对伊朗的初步打击成功击毙包括最高领袖在内的大批伊朗安全机构要员，那么反政府抗议活动很有可能再次迅速爆发。

Mr. Netanyahu appeared to sell that idea to Mr. Trump, who built it into his own message to the Iranian people on the morning of the opening attack. “When we are finished, take over your government,” Mr. Trump said. “It will be yours to take.”

内塔尼亚胡似乎把这一设想传达给了特朗普，后者在战争开始当天早上向伊朗民众发表讲话时也采用了这一说法。“当我们完成行动后，你们就去接管政府，”特朗普说。“那是属于你们的。”

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡于去年12月在佛罗里达州拜访了特朗普。内塔尼亚胡在上周的新闻发布会上表示，自战争爆发以来，两人几乎每天都在通话。

It seemed far-fetched to many at the time. In the two weeks since, only pro-government rallies have been seen in Tehran’s major squares, fueled by anger over the war and the American military’s apparent missteps, including the deadly strike on the school. Now Mr. Trump himself seems to have his doubts about how effective the protesters could be.

当时许多人觉得这种想法不太现实。此后两周，德黑兰主要广场上只出现了支持政府的集会，对这次战争的愤怒以及美国军方明显的失误（包括致命的学校袭击事件）加剧了这种情绪。如今，特朗普本人似乎也开始怀疑抗议者究竟能发挥多大作用。 

In a radio interview with Brian Kilmeade of Fox News, Mr. Trump conceded that the Basij militias tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps would probably kill people who rose up.

在接受福克斯新闻主持人布莱恩·基尔米德的广播电台采访时，特朗普承认，与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队关联的巴斯基民兵很可能会杀害反抗的民众。

“They say, ‘Anybody protests, we’re going to kill you in the streets.’ So I really think that’s a big hurdle to climb for people that don’t have weapons,” Mr. Trump concluded. “I think it’s a very big hurdle.”

“他们说：‘谁敢抗议，我们就当街杀掉你。’所以我确实认为，对没有武器的人来说，这是一个很难跨过的障碍，”特朗普总结说。“我认为这是一个很大的障碍。”

There has been similar tension over Israel’s second front in Lebanon, with renewed attacks on Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy group. In the Trump administration’s view, those strikes only heighten the risk from the spreading conflict while taking resources and attention away from the main target. In Mr. Netanyahu’s view, Iran and Hezbollah are inseparable, and the time to attack the terrorist organization is when the Iranian leadership is too consumed by its own battles to help out.

以色列在黎巴嫩的第二战线也出现了类似的分歧，以色列在该国再次打击伊朗的代理组织真主党。特朗普政府认为，这些打击只会加剧冲突蔓延的风险，同时分散了本应投入主要目标的资源与注意力。而内塔尼亚胡则认为，伊朗与真主党密不可分，趁伊朗领导层自顾不暇、无力支援之际，打击这个恐怖组织正是时机。

The Israel Defense Forces said in a statement on Sunday that Israel and the United States were maintaining a “close and ongoing security and strategic cooperation, based on professional dialogue and the highest level of transparency.”

以色列国防军周日在声明中表示，以色列与美国“基于专业对话和最高透明度”，保持着“密切且持续的安全与战略合作”。

“The claim that the I.D.F. deliberately opened an additional front with Lebanon is incorrect and misleading,” the statement said, adding that “Hezbollah made a deliberate decision to join the war being waged by Iran against Israel and launched a wave of strikes, acting with the direction of the Iranian regime.”

“有关以军蓄意在黎巴嫩开辟另一战线的说法是错误且具有误导性的，”声明称，并补充称，“真主党蓄意决定加入伊朗针对以色列发动的战争，在伊朗政权指挥下发起了一系列袭击。”

以色列于3月7日袭击了伊朗的石油库，引发了大规模火灾，并导致油价出现飙升。

Through it all, Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu have been speaking almost every day, the prime minister said at a news conference last week. White House officials confirm the frequent conversations and say Mr. Trump is also talking regularly to Arab leaders, particularly Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince.

内塔尼亚胡上周在新闻发布会上表示，在此期间，特朗普与他几乎每天都通话。白宫官员证实了两人频繁沟通，并表示特朗普也定期与阿拉伯领导人通话，特别是沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼。

According to several officials, the advice Mr. Trump is getting from the prince is to keep hitting the Iranians hard — essentially repeating the advice that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who died in 2015, repeatedly gave to Washington: “Cut off the head of the snake.”

据多名官员透露，特朗普从这位王储那里得到的建议是持续猛烈打击伊朗——这本质上是在重复2015年去世的沙特阿卜杜拉国王曾多次向华盛顿提出的建议：“斩掉蛇头”。

Trump’s Next Decisions: Kharg Island and the Nuclear Depot

特朗普的下一步决策：哈尔克岛与核武器库

Mr. Trump said at the outset of the conflict that he expected it could take four to six weeks of fighting, and White House officials say that is still their expectation. That means the war is likely to still be underway when Mr. Trump takes his long-awaited trip to China at the end of March, one that was supposed to focus on trade and security issues.

冲突伊始，特朗普曾表示，预计战事将持续四至六周，白宫官员称这一预期仍然未变。这意味着，当特朗普于3月底开启备受期待的访华之行时，战争很可能仍在进行中，而此次访问本应聚焦贸易与安全议题。

Now there is little doubt that the war will dominate the Beijing summit. Last year, President Xi Jinping of China used his control over critical rare earth minerals and magnets to force Mr. Trump to back down on tariffs; now he must face the possibility that this year Mr. Trump could control oil shipments to Chinese refineries from Venezuela and, depending how the war turns out, Iran.

如今几乎可以确定，这场战争将成为北京峰会的核心议题。去年，中国国家主席习近平利用对关键稀土矿产和磁体的掌控，迫使特朗普在关税问题上让步；如今习近平必须面对这样一种可能性：今年特朗普可能控制从委内瑞拉运往中国炼油厂的石油运输，根据战争走向，甚至可能控制伊朗对中国的石油运输。

In 2025 China purchased about 1.4 million barrels per day of Iranian oil, more than 13 percent of the oil it brought in by sea. (For Iran, China is overwhelmingly its biggest customer.)

2025年，中国日均进口伊朗石油约140万桶，占其海运石油进口总量的13%以上。（对伊朗而言，中国是压倒性的最大客户。）

Even as he prepares for the summit, Mr. Trump will have to grapple with two of the biggest decisions of the war: whether to attack, with ground troops, Kharg Island and the nuclear storage facilities where about 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade uranium is believed to remain.

在筹备峰会的同时，特朗普还需应对这场战争中两项最重大的决策：是否动用地面部队攻击哈尔克岛，以及是否袭击据称仍存放着约440公斤近武器级铀的伊朗核储存设施。

They each pose very different challenges. The island is an exposed target, accessible to the U.S. Navy at the northern end of the Persian Gulf. But seizing it means protecting an occupying force from remnants of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which could launch strikes from the shore or small boats, or blow up the pipelines that supply the port facilities on the island with Iranian oil. That could require a continuing military presence of exactly the kind that Mr. Trump’s political base has warned against and that Mr. Trump himself said he would never repeat.

这两个目标各自存在截然不同的挑战。哈尔克岛是一个暴露的目标，美国海军可从波斯湾北端轻松抵达。但占领该岛意味着要保护驻军不受伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队残余势力的袭击——这些势力可能从海岸或小艇发动攻击，或炸毁为岛上港口设施输送伊朗石油的管道。这可能需要维持美国的长期军事存在，而这正是特朗普政治基本盘所反对的，也是特朗普本人曾承诺绝不会重蹈的覆辙。

2017年，哈尔克岛港的一处石油码头。若将其占领，特朗普将完全掌控这个伊朗大部分石油出口的起运港。

But if it is successful, Mr. Trump will have full control of the port that most Iranian oil exports originate from — and thus a stranglehold on the country’s economy.

但这项目标一旦成功，特朗普将全面掌控伊朗大部分石油出口的始发港，从而扼住该国经济的咽喉。

The seizure of the nuclear fuel, on the other hand, would be a one-time raid, but even riskier.

相比之下，夺取核燃料虽然是一次性突袭行动，但风险更高。

Most of the uranium enriched to 60 percent — just shy of what is needed to produce nuclear weapons — is stored in deep tunnels in Isfahan, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is in gas form, in canisters that could each fit in the trunk of a car.

据国际原子能机构称，大部分丰度达60%的铀（仅略低于制造核武器所需水平）储存在伊斯法罕的深层隧道中。这些铀以气态形式存在，装在每个都能放进汽车后备箱的容器里。

But the tunnels are hard to get at, especially after the United States bombed the facility last June, collapsing many of the entrances. American and European intelligence agencies, which have been watching the Isfahan plant by satellite, say that while some access has been reopened, they see no evidence that the fuel has been removed. But that does not make it any easier to get at.

但这些隧道难以进入，尤其是美国去年6月轰炸该设施、导致多个入口坍塌之后。一直通过卫星监视伊斯法罕核设施的美国和欧洲情报机构表示，尽管部分通道已重新开放，但没有证据表明核燃料已被转移。然而这并未让进入该设施变得更容易。

Special Operations forces would either have to go in stealthily, and hope to gain quick access, or go in with a huge protective force and spend days or weeks carefully extracting the canisters. There is little room for error: If the canisters were pierced and moisture entered them, the result would be both highly toxic and radioactive. If they were kept too close together, there would be risk of triggering a critical nuclear reaction.

特种部队要么必须秘密潜入，寄望于快速进入；要么必须配备庞大的防护部队，花费数天甚至数周时间小心提取这些燃料容器。几乎没有犯错的余地：如果容器被刺穿、水分进入，将会产生剧毒和放射性物质；如果容器之间放置过近，则有引发临界核反应的风险。

The issue is all the more urgent, American officials say, because the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is more desperate than ever — and may view keeping the nuclear fuel in Iran as the kind of leverage that could get the United States to back off.

美国官员表示，这一问题愈发紧迫，因为伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队比以往任何时候都更加孤注一掷——他们可能将保留伊朗境内的核燃料视为迫使美国让步的筹码。

“We haven’t made any decision on that,” Mr. Trump said about seizing the material. “We’re nowhere near it,” he said, which suggests that the war may have a long way to go.

“我们还没做出任何决定，”特朗普在谈及夺取核材料时表示。“我们还远远没到那一步，”这表明这场战争可能还有很长的路要走。