The temporary reduction in tariffs that the United States and China announced in Geneva on Monday will lift, at least for now, the de facto trade embargo that had been in place between the two countries for the past month. It will reduce the chances that American shoppers will face empty shelves during the holiday season and perhaps limit the price increases they will have to endure. It sent stock prices soaring around the world.

美国和中国周一在日内瓦宣布暂时降低关税，至少目前将解除过去一个月来两国之间实际上的贸易禁运。这将降低美国消费者在假日季节面临货架空无一物的可能性，或许还能限制他们不得不忍受的价格上涨。这使得全球股票价格飙升。

But the deal does little to clear the cloud of uncertainty that has hung over the U.S. economy since President Trump took office in January.

但是，该协议对于清除自特朗普总统1月就职以来笼罩在美国经济上的不确定性几乎没有帮助。

If anything, the latest news serves only to reinforce the degree to which trade policy lies in the hands of one man, who sees his unpredictability as a strategic strength and scoffs at the kind of careful, deliberative process that has characterized policymaking under previous administrations.

如果有什么不同的话，那就是最新的消息只会进一步凸显了这样一个现实：美国的贸易政策掌握在特朗普总统一人手中，他将自己的不可预测性视为一种战略优势，并嘲笑以往的政府在谨小慎微的决策过程。

In a little over a month, Mr. Trump has imposed steep tariffs on virtually every U.S. trading partner, then rolled them back temporarily. He has raised tariffs on China, then increased them further in response to Chinese retaliation, and now rolled back those tariffs as well — but only partially, and only for 90 days. Those back-and-forth decisions followed an earlier series of reversals, which on at least two occasions included tariffs that were announced and rescinded within a single day.

一个多月内，特朗普对几乎所有美国贸易伙伴征收了高额关税，然后又暂时取消。他提高了对中国的关税，然后进一步提高关税以回应中国的报复，现在他又降低了这些关税——但只是部分降低，而且只持续90天。在这些反复的决定之前，他还进行了一系列的逆转，其中至少有两次包括了在一天内宣布并取消的关税。

“Many of our trading partners now look at the U.S. and say, ‘Is this now the way trade policy continues in the future?’” said Steven J. Davis, a Stanford economist who has studied the way uncertainty affects the economy. “I think it’s quite clear that other countries around the world are reassessing their view of the United States as a reliable trading partner.”

“我们的许多贸易伙伴现在看着美国说，‘未来的贸易政策就是一直这样下去吗？’”研究不确定性如何影响经济的斯坦福大学经济学家史蒂文·戴维斯说。“我认为，很明显，其他国家正在重新审视要不要把美国当做可靠的贸易伙伴。”

A measure of economic policy uncertainty developed by Mr. Davis and two co-authors hit a record high this month, even surpassing the levels during the global financial crisis in 2008 and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. Research has shown that such bouts of extreme uncertainty are damaging in their own right, discouraging companies from hiring and investing.

戴维斯和两位合著者制定的一项衡量经济政策不确定性的指标本月创下历史新高，甚至超过了2008年全球金融危机和2020年新冠病毒大流行期间的水平。研究表明，这种极端不确定性本身就具有破坏性，会阻碍企业招聘和投资。

In the short run, the truce announced on Monday could provide some much-needed clarity. Under the agreement, which lasts 90 days, the United States will cut tariffs on goods from China to 30 percent from 145 percent. China will make a similar reduction in the retaliatory duties that it imposed on imports from the United States.

从短期来看，周一宣布的休战可能会提供一些急需的明确性。根据这项为期90天的协议，美国将把来自中国的商品关税从145%降至30%。中国将对从美国进口的商品征收的报复性关税进行类似缩减。

The new rates are still far above those in place before Mr. Trump took office and will almost certainly result in higher prices for consumers. But the reduction was large enough that it should allow for trade between the two countries — which had all but halted while the prohibitive 145 percent tariffs were in place — to resume to some degree. Many economists expect imports to surge in the coming weeks as companies race to restock while the lower rates remain in effect.

新税率仍远高于特朗普上任前的税率，几乎肯定会给消费者带来更高的价格。但这一降幅足够大，足以让两国之间的贸易在某种程度上恢复——在145%的禁止性关税实施期间，两国之间的贸易几乎停止。许多经济学家预计，在未来几周内，随着企业竞相在较低税率生效期间补货，进口将激增。

To investors, the agreement also served as a signal that leaders of both countries were looking for a way to step back from the full-blown trade war that had erupted over the past month. Economists had warned that the standoff could lead to “stagflation” — the combination of high inflation and slow growth — as the steep decline in commerce led both to higher prices and reduced demand for workers to drive delivery trucks, pack boxes and stock shelves. That outcome now seems less likely.

对投资者来说，该协议还发出了一个信号，表明两国领导人正在寻找一种方式，从过去一个月爆发的全面贸易战中脱身。经济学家曾警告说，这种僵局可能导致“滞涨”——高通胀和低增长的结合——因为贸易的急剧下滑导致价格上涨，也减少了对从事卡车运输、装箱和码货工作的工人的需求。现在看来，出现这种结果的可能性较小。

Stock indexes surged on Monday following the announcement and continued to rise on Tuesday. The S&P 500, which had fallen sharply when tariffs were announced, has now turned positive for the year.

消息公布后，股指周一大涨，周二继续上扬。标准普尔500指数在关税宣布时曾大幅下跌，现在已实现今年的正增长。

洛杉矶的一家户外购物中心。即使降低了对中国的关税，消费者也几乎肯定会遇到价格上涨的问题。

“What it does is it signals that there is real, tangible progress,” said Sina Golara, a management professor at Georgia State University who specializes in supply chain issues. “There seems to be strong will and a political push to getting a deal. That’s all positive.”

“它的作用是发出了一个信号，表明确实有了切实的进展，”佐治亚州立大学专门研究供应链问题的管理学教授西纳·戈拉拉说。“似乎有达成协议的强烈意愿和政治推动力。这都是积极的。”

But the agreement with China — like the framework deal with the Britain that was announced last week and the temporary rollback of tariffs imposed on other trading partners last month — is an executive action taken by Mr. Trump. It is not a legally binding treaty ratified by Congress. As a result, there is nothing to stop Mr. Trump from raising tariffs again at the end of the 90 days, or even before then.

但与中国达成的协议——就像上周宣布的与英国达成的框架协议，以及上个月暂时降低对其他贸易伙伴征收的关税一样——是特朗普采取的一项行政行动。它不是国会批准的具有法律约束力的条约。因此，没有什么可以阻止特朗普在90天结束时甚至之前再次提高关税。

On Monday, Mr. Trump said that if China doesn’t agree to a trade deal within the 90-day window, tariffs will go back up and be “substantially higher,” although not to 145 percent.

周一，特朗普表示，如果中国不在90天的窗口期内同意达成贸易协议，关税将重新上调，而且“大幅提高”，尽管不会达到145%。

“If you’re just looking to get your imports in from China, I do think you have at least enough near-term certainty to start shipping as much as possible,” said Alex Jacquez, a former economic adviser to former President Biden who now works at the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive think tank. “What I don’t think this does is decrease any long-term uncertainty because we still don’t know what the aim of Trump’s negotiations are with China or with anyone else.”

“如果你只是想从中国进口商品，我确实认为你至少有足够的短期确定性开始尽可能多地发货，”前总统拜登的前经济顾问、现供职于进步智库基础合作的亚历克斯·雅克斯说。“我不认为这会减少任何长期的不确定性，因为我们仍然不知道特朗普与中国或其他任何人谈判的目的是什么。”

The short-term nature of the deal is likely to limit the benefits, said Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles. Companies will bring in products they need urgently, he said, but they will be reluctant to make bigger commitments, knowing the tariff rates could change yet again.

洛杉矶港执行董事吉恩·塞洛卡说，这笔交易的短期性质可能会限制其效益。他说，企业将拿到它们急需的产品，但它们将不愿做出更大的承诺，因为它们知道，关税税率可能会再次改变。

Executives he has spoken to are “hopeful, but very cautious,” Mr. Seroka said. “By no means has anybody said we’re out of the woods.”

与塞洛卡交谈过的高管们都“充满希望，但非常谨慎，”他说。“但不等于有谁会觉得我们已经脱离了困境。”

For Learning Resources, an educational toy company in Vernon Hills, Ill., the 145 percent tariff rate was effectively an embargo. Rick Woldenberg, the chief executive, quipped at the time that the rate might as well be “100 billion percent.” He immediately paused some shipments, stopped filling open jobs and sued the Trump administration, arguing it had overstepped its authority.

对于伊利诺伊州弗农山的教育玩具企业学习资源(Learning Resources)来说，145%的关税实际上是禁运。公司首席执行官里克·沃尔登伯格当时打趣说，不如把税率调到“百分之1000亿”。他立即暂停了一些发货，停止填补空缺职位，并起诉特朗普政府，称其越权。

With tariffs now lowered to 30 percent, Mr. Woldenberg said he would probably restart shipment of some of the goods that were stranded in China.

随着关税降至30%，沃尔登伯格说，他可能会重启滞留在中国的部分货物的运输。

“We’ll probably bring it in because who the hell knows what they’ll do next,” he said. “This is, I suppose, better than the other kinds of chaos we were going through.”

“我们可能会把货物先运进来，因为谁知道他们下一步又会干什么，”他说。“我想，大概总比我们之前经历的那些混乱要好一些。”

But Mr. Woldenberg isn’t lifting his hiring freeze or making the other investments that have been on hold since tariffs took effect.

但沃尔登伯格并没有解除招聘冻结，也没有进行自关税生效以来一直被搁置的其他投资。

“We’re clinging to every dollar,” he said. “We’re going to need them because I have a new tax I have to pay.”

“我们紧紧攥住每一分钱，”他说。“我们需要这些钱，因为我有一项新税要交。”

In surveys, many companies have said they are holding off on making hiring and investing decisions until they see where tariffs end up. A mere 90-day pause is unlikely to move them off the sidelines.

在调查中，许多公司表示，在看到关税的最终结果之前，它们将推迟招聘和投资决定。仅仅90天的暂停不太可能让他们放弃观望。

“When I’m out talking to business leaders, they don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Austan D. Goolsbee, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, in an interview on Monday. “They can’t make decisions counting on this or any other thing lasting in a permanent way.”

“当我去和商界领袖交谈时，他们不知道会发生什么，”芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比周一接受采访时说。“他们不能指望这件事或任何其他事情能永久持续下去，从而做出决策。”

Nor can the Fed itself. Officials have warned in recent months that the tariffs are likely to lead to higher prices and slower growth. But the constant changes in trade policy have made it hard for the central bank to chart a clear path forward for interest rates. Instead, policymakers are essentially on hold, waiting to see how the economy responds before making any decisions.

美联储本身也不能。近几个月来，官员们警告称，关税可能会导致价格上涨和增长放缓。但贸易政策的不断变化，使得央行很难为利率制定明确的未来路径。相反，政策制定者基本上是按兵不动，等着看经济如何反应，然后再做出任何决定。

The deal in Geneva will reinforce that caution, said Sarah House, an economist at Wells Fargo.

富国银行经济学家萨拉·豪斯表示，日内瓦的协议将强化这种谨慎态度。

“This is a good example of why they’re in wait-and-see mode,” she said. “This is an indication of why they’re not trying to get out ahead of the impacts of these tariff policies, because they could be walked back at any moment, on any weekend.”

“这是一个很好的例子，说明他们为什么处于观望状态，”她说。“这也表明了他们为何不试图赶在这些关税政策产生影响之前采取行动，因为这些政策随时可能在某个周末被收回。”