The chaotic rollout of President Trump’s tariffs has prompted investors to question long-held assumptions about the safety and stability of the U.S. dollar, which has plunged in value this year. In the hunt for alternatives, many have turned to the euro.

特朗普总统关税政策的混乱推出已促使投资者质疑长期以来对美元安全性和稳定性的假设，今年美元汇率大幅下跌。在寻找替代品的过程中，许多人转向了欧元。

The euro has risen more than 11 percent against the dollar since the start of the year, reaching its highest level in four years, at $1.18. The euro has also gained against other major currencies over that period, including the Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar and South Korean won, suggesting that its strength is more than a reflection of the dollar’s weakness.

自年初以来，欧元兑美元已上涨超过11%，达到1.18美元，为四年来的最高水平。欧元同期对日元、英镑、加元及韩元等其他主要货币亦呈涨势，表明其走强并非仅因美元疲软。

Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said this moment was an opportunity for the euro to gain global clout.

欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德称，当前正是欧元提升全球影响力的契机。

“We are witnessing a profound shift in the global order: Open markets and multilateral rules are fracturing, and even the dominant role of the U.S. dollar, the cornerstone of the system, is no longer certain,” she wrote last month.

“我们正在目睹全球秩序的深刻转变：开放市场和多边规则正在瓦解，甚至作为体系基石的美元主导地位也岌岌可危，”她上月撰文指出。

The dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency gives the United States an “exorbitant privilege” — a term coined begrudgingly by a French politician in the 1960s. Because investors, governments and central banks around the world seek the safe, predictable returns of dollar-denominated assets like Treasury bonds, there is a robust, built-in demand for dollars. That makes it easier for the U.S. government to borrow and boosts the spending power of American consumers.

美元作为全球储备货币赋予美国“嚣张特权”——这个词是20世纪60年代一位法国政客心怀不满的创造。因全球投资者、政府及央行追逐美债等美元资产的安全、稳定收益，形成对美元的强劲内在需求，使得美国政府更容易借贷，并提升了美国消费者的购买力。

The eurozone, which is made up of the 20 countries that use the euro and rivals the United States in terms of size and wealth, has never attracted investors in the same way. The euro ranks a distant second to the dollar in global use.

在20个成员国组成的欧元区，其经济规模与财富水平虽与美国相当，但从未以同样的方式吸引投资者。欧元在全球使用率上远逊于美元。

The euro’s recent rise is a major reversal from just three years ago, when it dropped to parity with the dollar because investors feared the damage of surging inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And it is a world away from the eurozone debt crisis last decade, when at times the currency union seemed at risk of crumbling.

近期欧元的涨势与三年前形成巨大逆转：彼时因投资者担心通胀飙升及俄乌战争冲击，欧元曾跌至与美元持平。更与十年前欧元区债务危机不可同日而语——当时这个货币联盟几近分崩离析。

As welcome as the euro’s recovery from those episodes has been — the euro is trading near a record high against the currencies of dozens of major trading partners — it is also possible to have too much of a good thing.

尽管欧元从这些危机中复苏令人欣慰——欧元兑数十个主要贸易伙伴货币的汇率逼近历史高点，但也有可能物极必反。

As money flows into the euro and euro-denominated assets like German government bonds, economists and executives warn that the currency’s strength could hurt exporters. They are already contending with Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which make their goods more expensive for buyers abroad, as well as increased competition from Chinese rivals in key markets.

随着资金涌入欧元及德国国债等欧元资产，经济学家与企业高管警告，欧元走强可能会损害出口商。这些出口商已经在应对特朗普加征的关税——这些关税使他们的商品在海外市场变得更昂贵——又面临中国竞争对手在关键市场的挤压。

“Further euro strength is likely to be self-defeating,” said Valentin Marinov, a currency strategist at Crédit Agricole, a French bank. Exports were already likely to weaken and become a drag on the eurozone economy because of U.S. tariffs and European government policies that would encourage more imports.

法国农业信贷银行货币策略师瓦伦丁·马里诺夫指出：“欧元进一步走强恐将弄巧成拙。”受美国关税及欧洲政府鼓励进口政策影响，出口可能已经疲软，并拖累欧元区经济。

After a surge in energy prices led to years of fighting to bring inflation down, the European Central Bank, which sets interest rates for the eurozone, now faces the prospect that inflation could be too low.

在能源价格飙升，导致负责制定欧元区利率的欧洲央行多年来一直致力于降低通胀后，如今它却面临着通胀可能过低的前景。

The bank forecasts inflation to average 1.6 percent next year, notably below its 2 percent target. That’s partly because of the impact of a strong euro, which makes imports cheaper.

欧洲央行预测，明年通胀率平均为1.6%，明显低于2%的目标。部分原因是欧元走强，使得进口商品价格更低。

Some policymakers have said there is a risk that sluggish inflation will become entrenched, which is a familiar problem for the region. For nearly a decade until 2021, the central bank kept its key interest rates below zero in hopes of spurring faster economic growth and encouraging prices to rise steadily. That, policymakers hoped, would feed through to higher wage growth and better living standards.

一些政策制定者表示，存在通胀持续低迷的风险，这对该地区而言是个老问题。在2021年之前的近十年里，欧洲央行将关键利率维持在零以下，希望以此刺激经济更快增长，并促使物价稳步上涨。政策制定者们曾期望这会带动工资增长加快，进而提高生活水平。

E.C.B. officials are expected to keep interest rates steady when they meet this week, but analysts are adding to bets that they could cut rates again later this year, if the economic outlook darkens or the euro’s strength pushes inflation forecasts even lower. Reducing interest rates tends to weaken a currency, but the euro’s recent strength has come, notably, as the E.C.B. cut rates eight times in a year.

预计欧洲央行官员在本周会议上将维持利率不变，但分析人士们日益认为，如果经济前景恶化，或者欧元走强导致通胀预期进一步下降，央行可能会在今年晚些时候再次降息。降低利率往往会削弱货币，但值得注意的是，尽管欧洲央行在一年内降息八次，欧元近期仍走强。

Luis de Guindos, the vice president of the central bank, said that if the euro climbed above $1.20, that “would be much more complicated.”

欧洲央行副行长路易斯·德金多斯表示，如果欧元汇率升至1欧元兑1.20美元以上，“情况就要复杂得多了。”

欧洲中央银行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德说，美元在全球金融体系中的“主导”作用“已不再确定”。

Some big European companies have warned about the effect of the strong currency on their earnings, especially in export-heavy Germany.

一些欧洲大公司已对欧元走强对公司收益的影响发出警告，尤其是在出口占比较高的德国。

SAP, a software firm that recently became Europe’s most valuable public company, said every one-cent increase in the euro-dollar exchange rate results in a 30 million-euro decline in revenues, without currency hedges. Adidas, the sportswear brand, said a strong euro had “negative translation effects” on its overseas sales. Daimler, a truck maker, said fluctuations in the euro-dollar rate “could significantly impact” its financial performance.

最近成为欧洲市值最高上市公司的软件公司SAP表示，在没有进行货币对冲的情况下，欧元对美元汇率每上涨1美分，公司收入就会减少3000万欧元。运动服装品牌阿迪达斯称，欧元走强对其海外销售额产生了“负面换算影响”。卡车制造商戴姆勒表示，欧元对美元汇率的波动“可能显著影响”其财务表现。

Where the euro goes next is hard to predict.

欧元未来的走势难以预测。

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the euro to continue strengthening, to $1.21 next year. But Mr. Marinov of Crédit Agricole said he believed that traders had gotten ahead of themselves: He expects the euro to fall back toward $1.10 next year.

彭博社调查的分析师预计，欧元将继续走强，明年将达到1欧元兑1.21美元。但法国农业信贷银行的马里诺夫认为，交易员的想法有些过了：他预计明年欧元将回落至1欧元兑1.10美元左右。

The currency’s rally this year does not necessarily mean there will be a lasting shift toward the euro, in which it accounts for a larger share of central banks’ reserves or is used in more cross-border payments.

今年欧元的上涨并不一定意味着会出现向欧元的持久转变，即欧元在各国央行外汇储备中的占比提高，或在更多跨境支付中被使用。

Ms. Lagarde of the E.C.B. said seizing the moment for a “global euro” would take a concerted effort to bolster the bloc’s fragmented economy, streamline its governance and deepen its capital markets, among other things.

欧洲央行的拉加德表示，要抓住机遇打造“全球欧元”，需要协同努力，包括加强欧元区分散的经济、简化治理、深化资本市场等。

“A step towards greater international prominence for our currency will not happen by default: It must be earned,” she said.

“让我们的货币在国际上更受重视，不是自然而然就能实现的，必须靠努力去争取。”她说。