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美印关系陷僵局,特朗普“助力”印度重新向中国靠拢

DAVID PIERSON, ALEX TRAVELLI

2025年8月18日

印度总理纳莫迪和特朗普总统于今年2月在白宫会晤,当时两国关系比现在友好。 Eric Lee/The New York Times

It may be another case of the adage: The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

这或许又一次印证了那句格言:敌人的敌人就是朋友。

Either way, it has come as a welcome surprise for China to see its top global rival, the United States, pick a fight with Beijing’s biggest Asian competitor, India.

无论如何,看到自己的头号全球竞争对手——美国与自己在亚洲的最大竞争对手——印度发生冲突,对中国而言可谓意外之喜。

Relations between Washington and New Delhi are on the fritz after the Trump administration threatened early this month to double tariffs on Indian goods to a whopping 50 percent, citing India’s imports of Russian oil.

特朗普政府本月初(上周)以印度进口俄罗斯石油为由,威胁要将印度商品的关税提高一倍,达到惊人的50%,此后美印关系陷入僵局。

The sudden rift threatens to undermine years of growing cooperation between the United States and India in areas like security and technology that had been fueled in large part by a shared desire to keep China’s global ambitions in check.

这一突如其来的裂痕可能会破坏美印多年来在安全和科技等领域不断加强的合作,而这种合作在很大程度上是源于两国都希望遏制中国的全球野心。

It has also injected new momentum into an easing of tensions between China and India, which had ramped up in recent years. The thaw started in earnest last October when President Xi Jinping of China met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India at a summit of emerging economies in Kazan, Russia. Since then, the two countries have increased official visits and discussed easing trade barriers and the movement of people.

这也为近年来不断升级的中印紧张关系注入了缓和的新动力。去年10月,中国国家主席习近平与印度总理莫迪在俄罗斯喀山举行的一个新兴经济体峰会上举行会晤后,两国关系的缓和才正式启动。从那以后,两国增加了官方互访,并就放宽贸易壁垒和人员流动进行了磋商。

“I assume that there is a certain amount of schadenfreude among some folks in Beijing when they look at the trade issues between India and the United States,” said Manoj Kewalramani, head of Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore, India. “A breakdown of political trust between New Delhi and Washington works in Beijing’s favor.”

“北京方面的某些人看到美印之间的贸易问题,想必带有几分幸灾乐祸,”印度班加罗尔塔克沙希拉研究所印太研究主管马诺吉·凯瓦拉马尼说,“新德里和华盛顿之间政治信任的破裂对北京有利。”

To be sure, there is still much that divides the two Asian giants. That includes control of a 2,100-mile shared border; China’s coziness with India’s adversary, Pakistan; and India’s ambition to attract the multinational manufacturers that have been trying to reduce their dependence on China.

诚然,这两个亚洲大国之间仍存在诸多分歧。其中包括约3400公里共同边界的控制权问题、中国与印度的对手巴基斯坦的亲密关系,以及印度吸引那些一直努力减少对中国依赖的跨国制造商的雄心。

The October meeting between Mr. Modi and Mr. Xi was the first time the two leaders had spoken in person since a 2019 summit in India, a year before relations cratered following a deadly Himalayan border fight between Chinese and Indian troops.

2019年在印度举行的一个峰会期间,中国国家主席与莫迪曾举行会晤。次年中印军队在喜马拉雅边境发生致命冲突,两国关系急剧恶化。去年10月是双方领导人时隔四年的首次面对面交谈。

Since the Russia talks, the two countries have eased travel visa restrictions and are working to restore direct flights. In June, Beijing allowed pilgrims from India to visit holy sites in Tibet. China and India are also in discussions to reopen three trading posts along their mountainous boundary, Randhir Jaiswal, the spokesman for India’s foreign ministry, said last week.

自那次俄罗斯会谈以来,两国放宽了旅行签证限制,并正在致力于恢复直飞航班。今年6月,北京允许印度朝圣者前往西藏的圣地。印度外交部发言人兰迪尔·贾伊斯瓦尔周四表示,中印还在讨论重新开放两国山区边界沿线的三个贸易口岸。

China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, is scheduled to arrive in India on Monday for the latest round of talks on border issues. It would be the first time Mr. Wang has visited India in more than three years.

中国外长王毅将于周一抵达印度,就边境问题开启新一轮会谈。这将是王毅四年来首次访问印度。

This month, Mr. Modi will visit China for the first time in seven years to attend a regional security summit meeting in the northeastern city of Tianjin. Mr. Xi and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia will also be in attendance, bringing together three leaders at odds, to varying degrees, with the United States.

本月,莫迪将七年来首次访华,出席在天津举行的地区安全峰会。习近平和俄罗斯总统普京也将出席,这三位与美国存在不同程度分歧的领导人将齐聚一堂。

15int china india 2 kmbp master1050莫迪总理去年10月在俄罗斯喀山举行的金砖峰会上会见了中国国家主席习近平和俄罗斯总统普京。本月,这三位领导人将在中国再次会晤。

The Modi government has also been careful not to raise the Indian public’s ire over the way China helped Pakistan’s military during a clash with Indian forces in May — a sign of New Delhi’s commitment to smoother relations with Beijing.

莫迪政府还刻意避免渲染中国在5月印巴冲突中对巴基斯坦的军事支持,以免激起印度民众愤怒,这表明新德里致力于跟北京建立更顺畅的关系。

Vijay Gokhale, a former Indian ambassador to Beijing, said in an opinion piece in The Times of India published on Tuesday that China and India still had many diverging interests. But he wrote that China provided India and other developing countries a critical counterbalance to “Trumpian disorder” as a source of capital and technology and as a partner in fighting climate change.

前印度驻华大使顾凯杰(Vijay Gokhale)周二在《印度时报》上发文,称中印仍存在许多利益分歧。但他承认,中国作为资本和技术的来源以及应对气候变化的合作伙伴,为印度和其他发展中国家提供了一个对抗“特朗普式混乱”的关键平衡力量。

“China is beginning to look better than at any time in the previous five years,” Mr. Gokhale wrote.

“中国现在的形象比过去五年的任何时候都要好,”顾凯杰写道。

Beijing has responded to India’s friendlier posture with cautious optimism, taking into account the chance that the reorientation could simply be a play to hedge against the Trump administration, analysts said.

分析人士表示,北京对印度更友好的姿态做出了谨慎乐观的回应,同时也考虑到这种转向可能只是为了对冲特朗普政府的一种策略调整。

Earlier this year, Mr. Xi called for relations to resemble a harmonious “dragon-elephant tango” in a nod to the two countries’ symbolic creatures. Despite the gesture, China continues to fortify its border with India by building new roads, rail networks and villages that can also serve the Chinese military.

今年早些时候,习近平曾以两国的象征性动物为喻,呼吁双方关系要像和谐的“龙象共舞”。尽管有这样的姿态,中国仍在通过修建新的公路、铁路网络和可同时为中国军队服务的村庄,加强在中印边境的防御。

The two powers are also vying for influence across the Indian Ocean, the critical waterway for Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure project intended to deepen China’s supply chain networks.

这两大强国还在印度洋地区争夺影响力,这片水域对中国的“一带一路”倡议至关重要。该全球基建项目旨在深化中国供应链网络布局。

One of the biggest drivers of tension with India from China’s perspective is the suspicion that New Delhi was abandoning its historically nonaligned foreign policy to move further into Washington’s sphere. Beijing points to the Quad defense group, which brings together four large democracies — India, the United States, Japan and Australia — to counter China’s military rise.

从中国视角看,引发中印紧张的核心动因之一是它怀疑新德里正在放弃传统的不结盟外交政策,加速倒向华盛顿阵营。北京特别指出,由印、美、日、澳四大民主国家组成的“四方安全对话”机制就是证明,该机制旨在遏制中国的军事崛起。

Whether the next meeting of Quad leaders, expected later this year in India, goes ahead will depend on whether the Trump administration and New Delhi are able to mend their trade spat and rebuild trust, an Indian official said.

一位向记者介绍情况的印度官员表示,预计今年晚些时候在印度举行的下一次“四方安全对话”领导人会议能否如期举行,将取决于特朗普政府和新德里能否修复贸易争端并重建信任。

Chinese state media has been all but gloating about the strains between the United States and India. The Global Times, a Communist Party tabloid, said Mr. Modi’s upcoming visit to China was a sign of Washington’s failure to draw New Delhi into its strategy to “contain” Beijing.

中国官方媒体对美印关系出现裂痕的态度近乎幸灾乐祸。中共旗下的小报《环球时报》称,莫迪即将访华标志着华盛顿试图拉拢新德里“遏制”北京的战略已然失败。

“China and India are neighbors, and the list of areas in which they can cooperate is long,” the newspaper said.

该报指出:“中印互为邻邦,合作领域广阔。”

Still, if Indian officials want to improve ties with China, they will have to do it on Beijing’s terms, analysts said.

然而分析人士表示,若印度官员希望改善对华关系,则必须按中国的条件行事。

15int india china 03 zlth master1050印度拉达克靠近中国边境的一支印度军队车队。2020年,两国士兵在附近的山脊上爆发了一场致命冲突。

That means opening up India more to Chinese firms and investment and continuing to loosen restrictions on visas for Chinese businesspeople. India has blocked the Chinese carmaker BYD from setting up factories and has banned Chinese apps like TikTok.

这意味着印度需进一步向中资企业开放市场,并持续放宽中国商务人士的签证限制。此前印度不仅叫停比亚迪建厂计划,还封禁了TikTok等中国应用程序。

“If India seeks to improve its relations with China, China welcomes that,” said Lin Minwang, an expert on China’s relations with South Asia at Fudan University in Shanghai. “However, China will not make significant concessions or sacrifices to accommodate India’s so-called diplomatic posture.”

上海复旦大学南亚问题专家林敏旺表示:“若印度寻求改善对华关系,中方表示欢迎。但中国不会为迎合印度所谓的外交姿态而作出重大让步或牺牲。”

Mr. Lin said China will not budge on its national interests, even those that irk New Delhi the most, such as Beijing’s close support for Pakistan.

他还指出,中国在国家利益问题上丝毫不会让步——即便这些利益令新德里最为恼火,例如北京对巴基斯坦的坚定支持。

India is also wary, Mr. Modi having been bitten once before after trusting Mr. Xi too readily, other analysts have said.

其他分析人士称,印度同样保持警惕,因莫迪此前轻信习近平而吃过亏

“India’s current approach is primarily driven by strategic calculations,” Mr. Lin said. “Given its deteriorating relations with the United States, it has adopted some China-friendly gestures. I believe the Chinese side will at least assess these developments cautiously.”

“印度当前的策略主要基于战略考量,”林敏旺强调,“鉴于其与美国关系恶化,遂作出若干对华示好举措。中方至少会对此保持谨慎评估。”

Mujib Mashal自新德里、Berry Wang自香港、Daisuke Wakabayashi自首尔对本文有报道贡献。 

David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。

Alex Travelli是时报驻新德里记者,报道印度和南亚其他地区的商业和经济新闻。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

点击查看本文英文版。

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