2025年2月14日
Not so long ago, Taiwan basked in seemingly boundless, bipartisan support in Washington, where the island has long been regarded as a valiant democratic partner against China.
不久前,台湾曾在华盛顿享有两党似乎无止境的支持,长期以来,它被视为对抗中国的英勇民主伙伴。
Now, a few weeks into President Donald J. Trump’s second term, Taiwan is adjusting to a shift in its relationship with the United States, its primary backer — one that does not focus on shared democratic ideals, and that is more uncertain and transactional. Mr. Trump has accused Taiwan of spending far too little on its own security and of gaining an unfair dominance in making semiconductors.
现在,特朗普的第二个总统任期还没过几周,台湾已经在适应与主要支持者美国的关系变化,这种改变意味着双方的关系不再以共同的民主理想为焦点,而且变得更加不确定和具有交易性。特朗普已指责台湾对自身安全投入的太少,并在半导体制造业占有不公平的主导地位。
Taiwanese officials and businesspeople have been trying to assure the new administration of their commitment to cooperation. They have traveled to Washington for meetings, bearing charts detailing their military outlays, and attended inauguration events filled with the MAGA faithful. They have floated new deals that Taiwanese companies could broker with American businesses in gas and other fields, and tried to explain the value of Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturing to American interests.
台湾的官员和商人们一直在试图使美国的新政府确信他们致力于合作。他们前往华盛顿与美方会晤,带着详细说明军事开支情况的图表,还派官员出席挤满“让美国恢复伟大荣光”支持者的就职典礼活动。他们提出了供台湾公司与美国企业在天然气和其他领域进行协商的新交易,并试图解释台湾的半导体制造对美国利益的价值。
Underlying their efforts is an anxiety over what Mr. Trump may do, for instance, to press Taiwanese companies to move advanced semiconductor production to the United States. Mr. Trump has said he might soon impose tariffs on semiconductors. Taiwanese officials have been preparing to help Taiwanese businesses soften the blow of any such move.
这些努力的背后是对特朗普可能采取行动的焦虑,比如向台湾企业施压,要求把高端的半导体生产搬到美国。特朗普已表示,他可能很快会对半导体征收关税。台湾的官员们一直在做准备,帮助台湾企业减轻此类行动带来的冲击。
台南的台湾半导体制造公司大楼。台积电是全球最先进的芯片制造商。
“I think Taiwan just convinced itself that they had good relations with the U.S. and they had lots of friends in Congress, and they would be able to weather the storm,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, the managing director of German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program, who often speaks with Taiwanese politicians. “When Trump made those comments, I think it was a wake up call for people in Taiwan that they really didn’t know what was coming next.”
“我觉得台湾刚说服了自己,他们与美国关系良好,在国会有很多朋友,他们能够渡过难关,”美国的德国马歇尔基金会印太项目主任葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)说,她经常与台湾政界人士交谈。“特朗普发表这些言论时,我觉得这给台湾人民敲响了警钟,他们真的不知道接下来会发生什么。”
Governments around the world are trying to adjust to Mr. Trump’s combative approach. But the stakes for Taipei are especially high. The island depends on the United States for nearly all its major weapons. It sends nearly a quarter of its exports directly to the United States, and Washington is crucial in giving Taiwan political support against Beijing, which claims that Taiwan is its territory and must accept unification — by force, if deemed necessary.
虽然世界各国的政府都在努力适应特朗普的好斗方式,但对台北的政府来说利害关系尤其重大。台湾几乎所有主要武器都依赖美国。台湾近四分之一的出口产品直接销往美国,美国政府在台湾对抗中国政府方面给予政治支持起着至关重要的作用。中国政府宣称对台湾拥有主权,台湾必须接受与大陆统一,必要时将使用武力。
Taiwanese officials and policy advisers said the island would quickly roll out measures to help its businesses hurt by any new U.S. tariffs. They spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive and provisional nature of the plans, and declined to give details. Some officials have publicly hinted at the preparations. “We’re preparing for a range of scenarios,” the minister of economic affairs, Kuo Jyh-Huei, told reporters when asked about Mr. Trump’s threatened tariffs. “If we showed our hand now, that would not work to the benefit of everyone.”
台湾的官员和政策顾问表示,政府将迅速采取措施,帮助受美国新关税影响的台湾企业。由于这些计划很敏感,而且是暂定的,他们要求不具名,并拒绝透露细节。一些官员已对这些准备工作有公开的暗示。“各种情況我们都有准备,”在被问及有关特朗普威胁征收关税的问题时,台湾经济部部长郭智辉对记者说。“若现在掀了底牌,就无法为大家谋福利。”
Even if Mr. Trump holds off on the tariffs, Taiwan faces more pressure from his administration on other issues. They include the island’s big trade surplus with the United States, which climbed to a record $74 billion last year according to U.S. data, and its military spending and preparations, which many in Washington see as lacking, even though billions of dollars worth of orders of American military equipment are stuck in a backlog. The United States is committed by law to help Taiwan defend itself, and leaves open the possibility of intervening militarily if China tried to conquer the island.
即使特朗普推迟征收关税,台湾在其他问题上也面临来自特朗普政府的更大压力。其中包括台湾对美国的巨额贸易顺差(据美国的数据,台美贸易顺差去年攀升到了创纪录的740亿美元),以及台湾的军事开支和军事准备问题,美国政府中有许多人认为台湾的军事开支和军事准备不足,尽管台湾订购的数十亿美元的美国军事装备因订单积压尚未交货。美国的法律要求其承诺协防台湾,如果中国试图用武力征服台湾的话,存在美国进行军事干预的可能性。
台湾事实上的驻美国大使俞大㵢去年在美国国会山。
“There’s a basic mismatch. We’ve been thinking that America and Taiwan are in a strong partnership, but America under Trump thinks Taiwan doesn’t do enough,” said Jason Hsu, a former Taiwanese lawmaker and technology investor who is now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. “Sooner or later, the Taiwan government will need to show up in town with a package ready to offer Trump.”
“有一种基本的错配。我们一直认为美国和台湾的伙伴关系很牢固,但特朗普领导下的美国认为台湾做得不够,”曾任台湾立法委员的科技投资人许毓仁说,他现在是哈德逊研究所的高级研究员。“台湾政府迟早需要准备好一揽子计划来美国提交给特朗普。”
Publicly, the Taiwanese government is projecting calm confidence about relations with Washington. But Taiwanese officials’ efforts to build bridges into Mr. Trump’s inner circle during trips to Washington last month and in December, have yielded little so far, said three American officials familiar with their attempts, who described the interactions as limited.
在公开场合,台湾政府对其与华盛顿的关系表现出一种镇定且充满信心的姿态。然而,据三名知情的美国官员透露,台湾官员上个月和去年12月前往华盛顿期间,试图与特朗普的核心圈子建立联系,但到目前为止收效甚微,他们形容这些互动很有限。
Taiwan sent two economic officials to Washington this week to “better explain ourselves to Mr. Trump’s circle,” Mr. Kuo, the economic affairs minister, told reporters before their departure. Taiwan also hopes to buy more liquefied natural gas from Alaska, he has said.
台湾本周派了两名经济官员前往华盛顿,以便“向特朗普团队做比较深入的解释沟通”,台湾经济部部长郭智辉在官员出行前对记者说。他表示,台湾还希望从阿拉斯加购买更多的液化天然气。
“Taiwan is preparing some presents for Trump,” said Jeremy Chih-Cheng Chang, the chief executive officer of the Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology in Taipei. “They have already indicated some, as you have seen in news reports — like buying liquefied natural gas — but there are sure to be others.”
“台湾正在为特朗普准备一些礼物,”位于台北的科技、民主与社会研究中心的执行长张智程说。“他们已经做出了一些表示,正如大家在新闻中看到的那样,比如购买液化天然气,但肯定还会有其他的东西。”
In January, executives from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company — TSMC, the world’s most advanced chip maker — held talks with Mr. Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, said several people familiar with the talks who spoke on condition of anonymity.
几名不愿公开姓名的知情人士透露,今年1月,全球最先进的芯片制造商台湾积体电路制造公司(简称“台积电”)的高管与特朗普提名的商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克举行了会谈。
In December, Taiwanese officials visiting Washington showed officials and Republican politicians a presentation designed to demonstrate that Taiwan has been rapidly increasing military preparations, according to people familiar with those discussions. They met with Michael Waltz, then a Florida congressman known for being hawkish on matters of national security, according to one of the people.
据知情人士称,去年12月,台湾官员访问华盛顿时向美国政府官员和共和党政客们做了一个报告,介绍台湾一直在迅速加强军事准备方面的情况。据了解有关讨论的人士透露,台湾官员与迈克尔·沃尔兹举行了会晤,他当时是佛罗里达州的联邦众议员,以在国家安全问题上持强硬态度闻名。
Taiwanese officials remain hopeful that they will find robust supporters in two men who were deeply critical of China in Congress: Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, and Mr. Waltz, now Mr. Trump’s national security adviser. But some former officials who strongly supported Taiwan in Mr. Trump’s first term have not been brought into his new administration, including Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state.
台湾官员仍然抱有希望能在两个在国会工作时曾强烈批评中国的人身上找到坚定的支持,一个是国务卿马可·鲁比奥,一个是现任特朗普国家安全顾问的沃尔兹。但一些在特朗普的第一个任期里强烈支持台湾的前官员没有进入他的新政府,其中包括前国务卿迈克·庞皮欧。
特朗普总统与国务卿马可·鲁比奥在椭圆形办公室,摄于周二。
“It’s very telling that some hard-line hawks on Taiwan have been left out," said Christopher K. Johnson, the president of China Strategies Group, a consulting firm, and a former U.S. government intelligence officer. “It looks like Taiwan bet on some of the wrong horses.”
“一些在台湾问题上属于强硬鹰派的人士被排除在外,这很说明问题,”咨询公司中国战略集团的总裁克里斯托弗·约翰逊说,他曾在美国政府担任情报官员。“看起来好像台湾的一些赌注押错了。”
Half a dozen or so officials poised to take senior positions in the Pentagon have rejected the G.O.P.’s tradition of backing an expansive foreign reach, in favor of limiting U.S. military commitments abroad. They represent an ascendant foreign policy doctrine in a party that in recent years has chafed at committing more military support to Ukraine, and pushed NATO allies to spend more on their militaries.
大约六名即将上任美国国防部高级职位的官员已摈弃了共和党支持美国扩大海外影响力的传统,转向赞成对美国军队的海外承诺进行限制。他们代表了共和党中一个日益受欢迎的对外政策信条,持这种信条的人近年来一直对向乌克兰提供更多军事支持感到不满,并敦促北约盟国增加军费开支。
In an opinion essay published last May, Mr. Trump’s nominee to serve as the Pentagon’s under secretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby, warned that Taiwan should not assume that it was indispensable to the United States. “America has a strong interest in defending Taiwan, but Americans could survive without it,” he wrote. He and other Pentagon officials have suggested that Taiwan should increase its military spending to at least 5 percent of its economic output, or about twice what it currently is spending.
特朗普提名的国防部负责政策的副部长埃尔布里奇·科尔比曾在去年5月发表的一篇观点文章中警告,台湾不应认为自己对美国来说必不可少。“虽然保卫台湾对美国来说有极大的利益,但美国人不是没有它不行,”他写道。他和其他的国防部官员暗示,台湾应该将军费开支增加到其经济产出的至少5%,也就是目前军费开支的两倍左右。
The Taiwanese government has said it is committed to expanded military spending, though many Taiwanese experts and officials, privately, question the 5 percent target. President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan also faces a legislature controlled by opposition lawmakers who have accused his government of wasteful spending and reined in parts of this year’s defense budget.
虽然台湾政府已表示它致力于扩大军费开支,但许多台湾的专家和官员们私下里对5%的预期目标表示质疑。台湾总统赖清德也面临一个由反对派议员控制的立法院,他们指责他的政府浪费开支,并砍掉了今年的部分国防预算。
At the same time, Taiwan has its own frustrations with the United States, including the big backlog of undelivered orders of arms and military equipment to the island.
与此同时,台湾对美国也有自己的不满,包括大量未交付的武器和军事装备订单。
“I do sense a soreness of being told to spend more when they haven’t received what they’ve already paid for,” said Steve Yates, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, referring to Taiwan. “The U.S. has to fix its defense manufacturing supply chain before it can reasonably put pressure on others to do and buy more.”
“我确实觉得被要求增加军费支出对他们来说是件伤心事,因为他们还没有收到已经花钱购买的东西,”传统基金会的高级研究员史蒂夫·耶茨在谈到台湾时说。“美国在合理地向其他地方施压,让人家做更多事情、买更多东西之前,需要先把自己的国防制造供应链搞好。”