The F-35, a fifth-generation fighter, was developed in partnership with eight countries, making it a model of international cooperation. When President Donald Trump introduced its successor, the F-47, he praised its strengths — and said the version sold to allies would be deliberately downgraded.

第五代战斗机F-35由美国与八个国家合作研制，堪称国际合作的典范。美国总统特朗普宣布研发下一代战斗机F-47的计划时，对新战机的性能赞不绝口，同时还表示，卖给盟友的版本将是特意降级的机型。

That made sense, Trump said last week, “because someday, maybe they’re not our allies.”

特朗普上周说，那样做是有道理的，“因为也许他们有一天不再是我们的盟友。”

For many countries wedded to the United States, his remark confirmed a related conclusion: that America can no longer be trusted. Even nations not yet directly affected can see where things are heading, as Trump threatens allies’ economies, their defense partnerships and even their sovereignty.

对许多与美国结盟的国家来说，他的说法证明了一个相关结论：美国不再值得信任。随着特朗普对盟友的经济、与它们的防务伙伴关系，甚至它们的国家主权发出威胁，就连尚未受到直接影响的国家也已看到了事态发展的走向。

For now, they are negotiating to minimize the pain from blow after blow, including a broad round of tariffs expected in April. But at the same time, they are pulling back. Preparing for intimidation to be a lasting feature of U.S. relations, they are trying to go their own way.

就目前而言，这些国家正在通过谈判，将接二连三带来的冲击造成的伤害降至最低，其中包括预计将在4月生效的涉及范围广泛的新关税。与此同时，它们也在减少与美国的合作。鉴于恐吓将成为美国对外关系的持久特点，它们要试图走自己的路。

A few examples:

举几个例子：

— Canada made a $4.2 billion deal with Australia in March to develop cutting-edge radar and announced that it was in talks to take part in the European Union’s military buildup.

——加拿大已在今年3月与澳大利亚达成一项价值42亿美元的协议，研发尖端雷达技术，并宣布正在就参与欧盟军事建设进行谈判。

— Portugal and other NATO nations are reconsidering plans to buy F-35s, fearing U.S. control over parts and software.

——葡萄牙和其他北约国家出于对美国控制零部件和软件的担忧，正在重新考虑购买F-35的计划。

— Negotiations over a free trade and technology deal between the EU and India have suddenly accelerated after years of delays.

——欧盟与印度之间的自由贸易和技术协议谈判，经过多年拖延后突然加快了步伐。

— Brazil is not only increasing trade with China, it’s doing it in China’s currency, sidelining the dollar.

——巴西不仅在增加与中国的贸易往来，而且正在甩开美元，用人民币进行结算。

— In several countries, including Poland, South Korea and Australia, discussions about whether to build or secure access to nuclear weapons are now commonplace.

——包括波兰、韩国、澳大利亚在内的多个国家，关于是否要制造或确保获得核武器的讨论现已屡见不鲜。

Some degree of distancing from the United States had already been in motion as other countries became wealthier, more capable and less convinced that U.S. centrality would be permanent. But the past few months of Trump 2.0 have supercharged the process.

随着其他国家变得更加富裕、更有能力，加上越来越不相信美国会永远占据世界中心地位，它们已开始与美国保持距离。但在特朗普第二次担任总统的这几个月极大加速了这一进程。

停靠在韩国海军基地的美国核动力潜艇“亚历山德里亚”号，摄于今年2月。

History and psychology help explain why. Few forces have such a powerful, long-lasting impact on geopolitics as distrust, according to social scientists who study international relations. It has repeatedly poisoned negotiations in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. It kept Cold War tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union burning for decades.

历史和心理学对解释其中的原因有所帮助。据研究国际关系的社会科学家称，几乎没有什么比不信任更能对地缘政治产生如此强烈且持久的影响了。不信任已多次导致有关巴以冲突的谈判破裂，让美苏之间的冷战紧张局面持续了几十年。

So-called realists — who see international relations as an amoral contest between self-interested states — argue that trust should always be assessed with skepticism, because believing in good intentions is risky.

所谓的现实主义者们把国际关系视为自私自利的国家之间无关道德标准的竞争，他们提出，始终应该对信任持怀疑态度，因为相信他国怀有善意是存在风险的。

But Trump has sparked more than cautious suspicion. His own distrust of allies, evident in his zero-sum belief that gains for others are losses for America, has been reciprocated. What it has created is familiar — a distrust spiral. If you think the other person (or country) is not trustworthy, you’re more likely to break rules and contracts without shame, studies show, reinforcing a partner’s own distrust, leading to more aggression or reduced interaction.

但特朗普引发的不仅仅是谨慎的怀疑。他对盟友们的不信任已得到了回应，这种不信任体现在特朗普的零和博弈信念中，他认为别的国家得到的好处是美国的损失。这已经产生了我们熟悉的结果——不信任的螺旋式下降。研究表明，如果你认为对方（或他国）不值得信任，你就更有可能不知羞耻地违反规则和契约，这会进一步加深合作伙伴对你的不信任，导致更多的好斗情绪或减少双方的互动。

“Trust is fragile,” Paul Slovic, a psychologist at the University of Oregon, wrote in a seminal 1993 study on risk, trust and democracy. “It is typically created rather slowly, but it can be destroyed in an instant — by a single mishap or mistake.”

“信任是脆弱的，”俄勒冈大学的心理学家保罗·斯洛维奇在1993年发表的一篇关于风险、信任和民主的开创性论文中写道。“信任的形成一般相当缓慢，但信任可能会因为一个小小的意外或错误在一瞬间被摧毁。”

In Trump’s case, allies point to a sustained assault.

盟友们指出，特朗普摧毁信任用的是持续的打击。

His tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which ignored the North American free trade deal that he signed during his first term, stunned the United States’ neighbors.

他对从墨西哥和加拿大进口的产品征收关税，无视自己上次担任总统期间签署的北美自由贸易协定，让美国的这两个邻国震惊。

特朗普认为别国得到的好处是美国的损失，他对盟友的这种不信任正在得到回应。

His threats to make Canada a U.S. state and send the U.S. military into Mexico to go after drug cartels were brash intrusions on sovereignty, not unlike his demands for Greenland and the Panama Canal. His blaming of Ukraine for the war that Russia started further alienated allies, forcing them to ask: Is the United States a defender of dictators or democracy?

特朗普威胁要把加拿大变成美国的一个州，扬言派美军到墨西哥追捕贩毒集团，这些盛气凌人侵犯主权的言行与他对格陵兰和巴拿马运河的要求类似。他将俄罗斯对乌克兰发动的战争归咎于乌克兰，这就进一步疏远了盟友，让它们不禁发问：美国是要捍卫独裁者还是民主国家？

Relatively quickly, they have determined that even if Trump’s boldest proposals — such as turning the Gaza Strip into a Mideast Riviera — are fantasies, the trend lines point in the same direction: toward a world order less like the Olympics and more like Ultimate Fighting.

盟友们比较快地形成了看法，就算特朗普最大胆的提议——比如把加沙地带变成中东的里维埃拉——只是幻想，但大趋势的走向却是一致的：未来的世界秩序不再像是奥运会那样，而更像是终极格斗。

Perhaps no country is more shocked than Canada. It shares the world’s largest undefended border with the United States, despite their wide disparity in military strength. Why? Because Canadians trusted America. Now, in large part, they do not.

也许没有哪个国家比加拿大更为震惊了。尽管两国军事力量悬殊，但加拿大与美国保持着世界上最长的不设防边界。为什么？因为加拿大信任美国。现在，他们已在很大程度上不再信任了。

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday said his country’s traditional relationship with the United States was “over.”

加拿大总理马克·卡尼周四表示，加拿大与美国的传统关系“结束了”。

“Trump has violated the deep assumption in Canadian foreign policy that the U.S. is an inherently trustworthy nation,” said Brian Rathbun, a global affairs professor at the University of Toronto. “That is very threatening to basic Canadian interests in trade and security, leading it to cast around for alternatives.”

“特朗普已违背了加拿大外交政策中根深蒂固的假设，即美国从本质上来说是一个值得信赖的国家，”多伦多大学研究全球事务的教授布莱恩·拉斯本说。“这对加拿大的贸易和安全根本利益构成了极大威胁，迫使加拿大不得去其他地方寻找替代。”

Economic patriotism is somewhat new for Canada, but it has given rise to a Buy Canadian movement that urges consumers to shun American products and stocks. Canadians are also canceling U.S. holidays in large numbers.

虽然经济爱国主义在加拿大仍是较新的东西，但已引发了“购买加拿大货”的运动，这场运动呼吁消费者不要购买美国产品和美国公司的股票。很多加拿大人也取消了赴美度假的计划。

加拿大温哥华一家酒类商店的经理正在将美国威士忌从货架上撤下。

More significant in the longer term, Trump’s threats have forged a surprising consensus around a policy that had been contentious or ignored: that Canada should be building pipelines, ports and other infrastructure east to west, not north to south, to reduce its reliance on the United States and push its resources outward to Asia and Europe.

从长远来看更重要的是，特朗普的威胁已让人们围绕着一项政策达成了令人惊讶的共识，该政策在加拿大曾颇具争议或遭到忽视，那就是，加拿大应该建设东西方向的油气管线、通往东西方的港口和其他基础设施，而不只是建设从北向南的设施，以减少对美国的依赖，把本国的资源推向亚洲和欧洲市场。

Europe is further ahead in this process. After the U.S. election, the EU finalized a trade deal with South American countries to create one of the world’s largest trade zones, and it has worked toward closer trade ties with India, South Africa, South Korea and Mexico.

欧洲已在这个进程上走得更远。美国大选后，欧盟已与南美国家达成贸易协议，建立了全球最大的贸易区之一。而且，欧盟已努力与印度、南非、韩国、墨西哥等国建立更紧密的贸易关系。

Japan, America’s largest ally in Asia, has also been prioritizing new markets in the global south, where fast-growing economies such as Vietnam’s offer new customers.

美国在亚洲的最大盟友日本也一直在优先考虑“全球南方”的新市场，这些快速增长的经济体（比如越南）提供了新客户群体。

“There has been the emerging perception in Japan that we definitely have to change the portfolio of our investments,” said Ken Jimbo, a professor of international politics and security at Keio University in Tokyo. For the current administration and those that follow, he added, “we have to adjust our expectations of the American alliance.”

庆应义塾大学研究国际政治与安全的教授神保谦表示，“日本国内逐渐形成的一种观点是，我们必须改变投资组合。”他还说，对这届政府以及今后的政府来说，“我们不得不调整对美日同盟的预期。”

On the defense front, what some call “de-Americanization” is more challenging. This is especially true in Asia, where there is no NATO equivalent, and reliance on U.S. support has somewhat stunted the militaries of countries that the United States has promised to defend (Japan, South Korea and the Philippines).

就国防而言，被一些人称为“去美国化”的做法更具挑战性。在亚洲尤其如此，因为亚洲没有像北约那样的组织，对美国支持的依赖在一定程度上阻碍了美国承诺保卫的国家（日本、韩国、菲律宾等国）的军事发展。

菲律宾本月举行军事演习。该国已扩大了与日本和新西兰的防务关系。

On Friday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was in Manila, Philippines, promising to “truly prioritize and shift to this region.” But many of the United States’ partners are now working together without the United States, signing reciprocal access agreements for one another’s troops and building new coalitions to deter China as much as they can.

上周五，美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在菲律宾马尼拉承诺“真正优先考虑并转向亚太地区”。但美国的许多合作伙伴现在正在没有美国的情况下进行合作，签署相互派遣军队的协议，建立新的联盟，以尽可能地遏制中国。

Europe, too, is years away from being able to fully defend itself without the help of U.S. weaponry and technology. Yet, in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs, threats and general disdain — as in the leaked Signal chat in which Hegseth called Europe “pathetic” — the EU recently announced plans to ramp up military spending. That includes a 150 billion euro (about $162 billion) loan program to finance defense investment.

欧洲在没有美国武器和技术帮助的情况下充分自卫也还需要数年时间。但是，为了应对特朗普政府的关税、威胁和总体上的轻蔑态度（比如在泄露的Signal群聊中，海格塞斯用“很可悲”来描述欧洲），欧盟最近宣布了增加军费开支的计划。其中包括一项用于资助国防投资的1500亿欧元（约合1620亿美元）贷款计划。

The 27-nation EU is also increasingly collaborating with two nonmembers — Britain and Norway — on defending Ukraine and on other strategic defense priorities.

有27个成员国的欧盟也在越来越多地与两个非成员国——英国和挪威——就保卫乌克兰和其他战略防务优先事项上进行合作。

For some countries, none of this is quite enough. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament in early March that Poland would explore gaining access to nuclear weapons, fearing that Trump could not be trusted to defend a fellow NATO nation fully.

对一些国家来说，所有这些都还不够。波兰总理唐纳德·图斯克今年3月初对议会说，由于担心在捍卫北约同盟国的问题上不再能信任特朗普，波兰将探索获得核武器的可能性。

“This is a race for security,” Tusk said.

“这是一场安全竞赛，”图斯克说。

波兰总理唐纳德·塔斯克说，波兰将探索获得核武器的可能性。

In February, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul told the National Assembly that building nuclear weapons was “not on the table, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it is off the table either.” By some estimates, both South Korea and Japan have the technical know-how to develop nuclear weapons in less than two months.

韩国外长赵兑烈今年2月对国会表示，制造核武器“虽然还没有上议事日程，但也不一定意味着不在考虑范围内”。据估计，韩国和日本都拥具备在不到两个月的时间里研发出核武器的技术能力。

Bilihari Kausikan, a former Singaporean diplomat, said that a little mistrust can lead to healthy caution, noting that Asia has been skeptical of the United States since the Vietnam War. He said the end result of the Trump era could be “a more diversified world, with more maneuvering space” and a less-dominant United States.

新加坡的前外交官比利哈里·考西坎称，少量的不信任能导致健康的谨慎，并指出自越南战争以来，亚洲一直对美国持怀疑态度。他说，特朗普时代的最终结果可能是“一个更加多元的、有更多灵活空间的世界”，美国将不再占据主导地位。

But for now, distrust is spreading. Experts said it would take years and a slew of costly trust-building efforts to bring the United States together with allies, new or old, for anything long term.

但就目前而言，不信任的情绪正在蔓延。专家们说，美国要想与新老盟友建立或恢复长期的信任关系需要花费数年时间和大量代价高昂的努力。

“Trust is difficult to create and easy to lose,” said Deborah Welch Larson, a political scientist at UCLA who wrote a book about mistrust’s Cold War role. “Mistrust of the United States’ intentions and motives is growing day by day.”

“信任很难建立，但很容易丧失，”加州大学洛杉矶分校的政治学家黛博拉·韦尔奇·拉尔森说，她写过一本关于不信任在冷战中​​作用的书。“对美国意图和动机的不信任正在与日俱增。”