American officials believed nearly two years ago that Vietnam was about to buy C-130 military transport planes from the United States. In interviews, they said the sale would be a powerful blow to Russia, Hanoi’s main military partner, and a clear sign that geopolitical swing states like Vietnam were tilting toward Washington, not Moscow or Beijing.

约两年前，美国官员认为越南即将从美国采购C-130军用运输机。他们在采访中表示，这笔交易将对越南主要军事伙伴俄罗斯造成沉重打击，也将清晰表明越南这类地缘政治摇摆国正倾向美国，而非俄罗斯或中国。

At Vietnam’s defense expo last December, the country’s prime minister even climbed aboard a visiting C-130, inspecting the cockpit as U.S. commanders watched. A YouTube video seemed to capture a Vietnamese deputy defense minister telling colleagues that three (or maybe 13) planes had been ordered. But then nothing happened.

去年12月的越南国防博览会上，该国总理甚至登上一架参展的C-130运输机，在美军指挥官注视下视察驾驶舱。一段YouTube视频似乎捕捉到越南副防长在告知同事，已订购三架（也可能是13架）该型飞机。但此后便没了下文。

Instead, Vietnam has stepped up purchases of Russian military equipment, routing around U.S. sanctions meant to cut off business with Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Leaked documents and interviews with Vietnamese and Western officials all point to a reinvigorated relationship — a return to distrusting America and relying on Russia, with a surge of high-level meetings and previously undisclosed purchases and partnerships.

相反，越南绕过美国因俄乌冲突实施的对俄制裁，加大了俄罗斯军事装备的采购力度。泄露文件及对越南与西方官员的采访均显示，俄越关系正重新升温——双方高层会晤频次增加，达成了此前未公开的采购与合作协议，越南重拾对美国的不信任，再次依赖俄罗斯。

The evidence reviewed by The New York Times includes records of Vietnam ordering dozens of complex air-defense systems, and high-tech upgrades for submarines, while seeking fleets of new aircraft. Russia and Vietnam have also continued to expand military-technical cooperation through joint ventures. At least one company in Hanoi, Vietnam’s capital, was added to U.S. and European sanctions and export-control lists in 2024 and 2025, suggesting the business was contributing to Russia’s fight against Ukraine.

《纽约时报》查阅的证据显示，在寻求采购新机队的同时，越南还订购了数十套复杂的防空系统，并对潜艇进行了高科技升级。俄越还通过合资企业持续扩大军事技术合作。2024至2025年间，越南首都河内至少有一家企业被列入美欧制裁与出口管制名单，这表明其业务可能为俄罗斯对乌作战提供了支持。

Most of the transactions and collaborations with Russia have avoided sanctions enforcement, partly with payment systems hidden in other companies, and because the United States let a lot go, believing it was Vietnam’s partner of choice. But Moscow is getting bolder. While many of the secret purchases began during the Biden administration, they appear to be accelerating with President Trump in power — as are public displays of close relations.

越南与俄罗斯的多数交易及合作均避开了制裁执行，部分原因是它们通过其他企业隐藏支付系统，另外也因为美国此前认为，越南会选择自己作为合作伙伴，因而对诸多行为采取放任态度。但俄罗斯的动作正愈发大胆：尽管许多秘密采购在拜登政府时期就已启动，在特朗普总统执政后，这类交易明显加速，双方公开展示亲密关系的频次也有所增加。

Russia’s state news agency announced last month that a newly ratified protocol with Vietnam would let debts for military equipment be paid in Russian rubles.

俄罗斯国家通讯社上月宣布，与越南新批准的一项议定书允许用俄罗斯的卢布支付军用装备采购债务。

“The law was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin,” a Russian statement said.

“该法案已由俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京签署，”俄罗斯声明称。

Vietnamese officials say that their country is simply being pragmatic. Russia has been supplying most of their weapons for decades; Vietnam’s diversification process takes time. But after a pause prompted by Russia invading Ukraine in 2022 — and a drive toward other partners, which the Biden administration had encouraged — Vietnam is back in business with Moscow in ways that could reshape security calculations across Asia.

越南官员表示这只是务实之举。数十年来，俄罗斯一直是越南武器的主要供应方，越南的军事装备多元化进程需要时间。2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，越南曾暂停与俄合作，并在美国拜登政府鼓励下寻求与其他伙伴合作，但如今越南与俄罗斯重新开展军事合作，这种转变可能会重塑整个亚洲的安全格局。

Much of the region now worries that President Trump, who will be in South Korea this week for the APEC summit meetings, is pushing Hanoi further away, making Asia more dangerous by alienating not just allies but also newer partners.

目前，该地区多数国家担忧，即将于本周赴韩国出席APEC峰会的特朗普总统正将越南推得更远。他不仅疏远盟友，还与新的合作伙伴产生隔阂，这可能使亚洲局势更危险。

去年12月在河内举行的越南国际防务展上，一架美国空军C-130运输机亮相。越南特朗普酒店及高尔夫球场开发项目于5月举行奠基仪式。该项目征地行为激怒了当地居民。

Exasperation with the United States has been building in Vietnam. Blow by blow, it has risen with the elimination of American aid for clean energy and H.I.V. prevention, up-and-down tariffs, indifference to requests for a leader-to-leader meeting, a Trump family golf development near Hanoi that has enraged local residents, and surprises like the new tax on U.S. imports of furniture — one of Vietnam’s priority industries for growth.

越南对美国的不满正不断累积。美国取消对越南清洁能源与艾滋病防治项目的援助、关税政策反复无常、对越南提出的领导人会晤请求置之不理、特朗普家族在河内附近开发高尔夫项目，以及美国突然对进口家具（越南重点发展产业）加征新关税都加剧了当地民众不满。

It has been 50 years since the war with America ended, but Vietnam is still dominated by factions that either distrust or welcome the West. What Mr. Trump is now doing, according to analysts and officials, is empowering America skeptics and angering America fans.

越南与美国的战争已结束50年，但该国国内仍存在不信任西方与欢迎西方这两大派系。分析师与官员表示，特朗普当前的举措正让对美怀疑派势力壮大，同时惹恼了亲美派。

Near the end of the Biden administration, Vietnam worried about being seen as too close to the United States. Now, in private meetings, Vietnam’s leaders have expressed shock at what they described as a confusing and unfair reversal under the Trump administration that disregards Vietnam’s embrace of a comprehensive strategic partnership.

拜登政府执政末期，越南还担心被视为与美国走得太近。如今，越南领导人在私下会晤中表示，对特朗普政府推行的政策感到震惊——他们认为这些政策混乱且不公，完全无视越南此前对全面战略伙伴关系的积极回应。

“The unpredictability of Trump’s policies has made Vietnam very skeptical about dealing with the United States,” said Nguyen The Phuong, a security analyst at the University of New South Wales in Australia. “It’s not only trade but the difficulty of reading his mind and actions.”

“特朗普政策的不可预测性让越南在与美国打交道时充满疑虑，”澳大利亚新南威尔士大学安全分析师阮知方（音）表示，“这不仅涉及贸易问题，更在于难以判断他的想法与行动。”

New Alignments

新的力量格局

Vietnam insists that relations with the United States remain strong. Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said the American people were benefiting.

越南坚称与美国的关系依然稳固。白宫发言人安娜·凯利则表示，美国民众正从中受益。

“Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States has a great relationship with Vietnam,” she said in response to emailed questions, “which is how the President was able to open Vietnamese markets to American goods.”

“在特朗普总统领导下，美国与越南保持着良好关系，这正是总统能够为美国商品打开越南市场的关键，”她在回应邮件提问时称。

But in Japan, South Korea and Australia — and in the American institutions that deal with long-term foreign policy — concern about losing Vietnam keeps growing.

但在日本、韩国、澳大利亚以及美国负责长期外交政策的机构中，对于失去越南的担忧正不断加剧。

Russia is not the only worry. Vietnam’s leader, To Lam, recently visited North Korea and agreed to cooperate on defense. A few days after Mr. Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs slapped a 46 percent tariff on Vietnamese exports (which was later reduced), China’s leader, Xi Jinping, received a red-carpet welcome in Hanoi. Vietnam then accelerated plans for three cross-border railway projects that Beijing had been seeking for years.

美国的担忧不止于俄罗斯。越南领导人苏林近期访问朝鲜，并达成国防合作协议。特朗普政府推出“解放日”关税、对越南出口商品加征46%关税（后有所下调）几天后，中国国家主席习近平在河内受到隆重欢迎。随后，越南加速推进中国多年来一直寻求的三个跨境铁路项目。

中国总理李强（中）、朝鲜领导人金正恩和越南领导人苏林（右）本月在平壤出席朝鲜劳动党成立80周年纪念活动时合影。该照片由俄罗斯国家通讯社发布。4月，苏林与中国最高领导人习近平在总统府会晤。在美国关税政策频现意外之际，观察人士注意到越南正日益向俄罗斯和中国靠拢。

Vietnam has a long history of independence and post-Cold War neutrality. But officials from the region’s democracies now fear that Hanoi is encouraging more “red nationalism” across society and slipping out of its traditional balance between powers.

越南有着长期独立的历史，冷战后也始终奉行中立政策。但该地区民主国家的官员担忧，河内正推动社会层面兴起更多“红色民族主义”，且逐渐偏离传统的大国平衡策略。

An alignment or leverage that would make Hanoi more likely to side with China, Russia or North Korea in disputes could lead to a pullback from other partners. South Korea and Japan are Vietnam’s largest sources of foreign investment. Tokyo is building coast guard patrol boats for Vietnam in the hope that they will help monitor and counter Chinese aggression in Asian sea lanes.

若越南在争端中更可能倒向中国、俄罗斯或朝鲜，可能会疏远其他合作伙伴。韩国与日本是越南最大的外资来源国，日本正为越南建造海岸警卫队巡逻艇，希望帮助越南监控并对抗中国在亚洲航道的扩张行为。

In some corners of Washington, too, Vietnam’s choices are facing increased scrutiny. A congressional official said that Congress was briefed this year on a classified assessment of Vietnam’s military acquisitions and upgrades of naval and air defenses.

华盛顿一些部门也对越南的政策选择产生了越来越多的质疑。一名国会官员透露，今年国会已听取关于越南军事采购及海空防御升级的机密评估简报。

It was an early warning of growing alarm about the risks of American disengagement in Asia.

这是对美国在亚洲参与度下降风险的早期预警信号。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to make his first official visit to Vietnam in early November. Some Vietnamese and American officials, who requested anonymity to avoid repercussions for addressing sensitive topics, said they hoped that the discussions would revive the two countries’ relationship, or at least prevent further decline.

美国国防部长海格塞斯计划于11月初首次正式访问越南。部分要求匿名以避免讨论敏感话题引发后果的越美官员表示，希望此次会谈能修复两国关系，或至少阻止关系进一步恶化。

Along with addressing war legacy issues, like unexploded ordnance, potential purchases are expected to be discussed. Three Vietnamese officials said the C-130s are back in play. Vietnam has also expressed an interest in co-producing unmanned drones — a key component for the outposts it has been fortifying in the South China Sea to fend off Beijing’s competing claims over waterways and the Paracel and Spratly Islands.

除讨论处理未爆弹药等战争遗留问题外，双方预计还将商谈潜在军购事宜。三名越南官员透露，C-130运输机采购案已重新提上议程。越南还表达了联合生产无人机的兴趣——无人机是越南加固南海前哨基地的关键装备，旨在抵御中国在航道及西沙、南沙群岛主权问题上的主张。

Vietnam’s Air Defense and Air Force commander, Maj. Gen. Vu Hong Son, confirmed last month in an essay that major purchases were on the way, including “trainer aircraft, fighter jets, missile systems, antiaircraft guns and new-generation radar systems.”

越南防空空军司令武宏山少将上月在一篇文章中证实，越南即将进行多项重大采购，包括“教练机、战斗机、导弹系统、防空炮及新一代雷达系统”。

He did not say where the hardware would come from.

但他未说明这些装备的采购来源。

Some diversification has already happened. Vietnam has started building its own weapons and made modest defense deals with Israel and India, along with a few others.

越南在军事装备多元化方面已采取部分行动：开始自主研发武器，与以色列、印度等国达成小规模国防协议。

越南的大部分武器来自俄罗斯，但该国正开始通过自主设计实现武器多样化。9月，越南制造的TLDK-35地对空导弹在河内举行的展览会上亮相。越南自主研发的无人机也出现在国庆阅兵式上。

But Vietnam has mostly rebounded to Russia. When Mr. Putin visited in June 2024 — his first trip to Asia since 2018 — he was joined by the head of the Russian state arms exporting company, Rosoboronexport. By that point, Vietnam was already making clandestine plans to buy Russian weapons with secret payments routed through an oil and gas joint venture, according to a 2023 document from Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance.

但总体而言，越南仍有重新向俄罗斯靠拢的趋势。2024年6月，普京在2018年以来的首次亚洲之行中访问越南，随行人员包括俄罗斯国家武器出口公司俄罗斯国防出口(Rosoboronexport)的负责人。越南财政部2023年的一份文件显示，截至当时，越南已在秘密计划通过一家油气合资企业的秘密付款渠道，从俄罗斯采购武器。

Vietnam was hedging. The United States figured the C-130s were next. But that deal froze, and Russia’s kept going.

越南一直在进行对冲操作。美国曾认为，C-130运输机采购案将是下一步合作。但这笔交易陷入停滞，俄罗斯与越南的合作则持续推进。

Documents from another Russian defense exporter leaked last month by a pro-Ukrainian hacker group, black8mirror, show that Vietnam was set to receive nine electronic warfare systems in 2024 for Russia’s Su-35, an agile Sukhoi fighter jet. Another 26 components for mobile ground-based systems that can jam radar-guided missiles were to be delivered in 2025 at a listed cost of $189,739,535.

上月，亲乌克兰黑客组织black8mirror泄露了另一家俄罗斯国防出口企业的文件，显示越南将于2024年接收九套用于俄制苏-35战机（苏霍伊设计局研制的高机动性战斗机）的电子战系统；2025年还将接收26套用于机动地面系统的组件——该系统可干扰雷达制导导弹，文件显示这批组件标价为1.89739535亿美元。

Records from the company, Rostec, also include references to Vietnam seeking new “anti-submarine helicopters” and advanced periscopes for submarines.

这家企业——俄罗斯国家技术集团Rostec——的记录还显示，越南寻求采购新型“反潜直升机”及先进潜艇潜望镜。

Previously unreported, the air-defense orders suggested to analysts — who confirmed that the documents offered a credible glimpse of Vietnam’s plans — that a deal for Su-35s and other aircraft was probably already done. One of several Vietnamese officials who confirmed large orders from Russia said the country purchased 40 new Su-35 and Su-30 fighter jets, as part of a deal worth $8 billion, with deliveries delayed as Moscow searches for ways to supply its own war effort and foreign customers.

分析师确认这些文件可信度高，能反映越南真实计划。他们指出，这些此前未被报道的防空系统采购订单表明，越南可能已敲定苏-35及其他战机的采购协议。多名越南官员证实从俄罗斯有大额采购，其中一人表示，越南已采购40架新型苏-35与苏-30战机，作为价值80亿美元的交易的一部分，但由于俄罗斯需优先满足本国作战需求和外国客户，交付进度已延迟。

“The Russians have been very adept at finding workarounds, including defense exports through third countries,” said Ian Storey, the author of “Putin’s Russia and Southeast Asia: The Kremlin’s Pivot to Asia and the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War.”

“俄罗斯在寻找规避制裁的方法方面十分熟练，包括通过第三国进行国防出口，”《普京的俄罗斯与东南亚——克里姆林宫的亚洲转向及俄乌战争的影响》(Putin’s Russia and Southeast Asia: The Kremlin’s Pivot to Asia and the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War)一书作者伊恩·斯托里表示。

俄罗斯总统普京正不断拉近越南与莫斯科的关系，包括于2024年对河内进行正式访问。2024年越南军事博览会上，俄罗斯国防出口公司的展台。

For the United States, closer military ties and the sale of F-16 fighter jets, though much discussed, have not materialized.

对美国而言，尽管双方多次讨论深化军事合作及F-16战机出口事宜，但这些计划均未落地。

“Trump is the key point,” said Mr. Phuong, the security analyst in Australia, whose Ph.D. dissertation is about Vietnam’s military. “One official told me that if there is a naval conflict between Vietnam and China, and if Vietnam buys F-16s from the United States, and if Trump thinks that he could make some concession with China, then the United States will ban Vietnam from using the F-16s.”

“特朗普是关键因素，”澳大利亚安全分析师阮知方表示，他的博士论文以越南军事为题。“一名越南官员曾告诉我，若越南与中国发生海上冲突，且越南从美国采购了F-16战机，而特朗普认为可通过向中国让步获取利益，美国就可能禁止越南使用F-16。”

Disruption Ahead

变局在即

Vietnam’s concerns have not kept it from rushing to win over Mr. Trump. One avenue has been to fast-track the Trump Organization golf complex (earning the president $5 million, financial records show). Hanoi has also promised to buy more from the United States and to keep China from illegally routing exports through Vietnam to avoid U.S. tariffs.

尽管对美国心存顾虑，越南仍在努力争取特朗普的支持。其中一个途径是加快特朗普集团高尔夫综合体项目的审批（财务记录显示，该项目为特朗普带来500万美元收入）。河内还承诺增加对美采购，并阻止中国通过越南非法转运出口商品以规避美国关税。

This young country of 100 million sends nearly a third of what it makes to America — and there is nothing Hanoi wants more than certainty for trade.

这个有1亿人口的年轻国家，近三分之一的出口商品流向美国——对河内而言，没有什么比“贸易确定性”更重要。

Even before Mr. Trump won re-election last fall, Mr. Lam was requesting a meeting, to no avail. Hanoi’s trade negotiators are also desperate for details on new “country of origin” rules and future industry-specific tariffs, which have not been part of the trade announcements coinciding with Mr. Trump’s arrival in Asia this weekend.

甚至在去年特朗普赢得连任前，苏林就曾请求与他会面，但未获回应。河内的贸易谈判代表也迫切希望了解美国新的“原产国”规则及未来行业特定关税的细节，但这些内容并未包含在特朗普本周末赴亚洲期间公布的贸易声明中。

“Trump regards this as an ongoing reality show — more ‘deals’ or further tariff increases are almost certain to follow,” said Stephen Olsen, a former U.S. trade negotiator who is now a senior fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

“特朗普将这视为一场持续的真人秀——几乎可以肯定，更多‘交易’或进一步加征关税的举措还在后面，”前美国贸易谈判代表、现新加坡东南亚研究所高级研究员史蒂芬·奥尔森表示。

Russia has been quick to exploit the growing distance.

俄罗斯迅速利用了美越之间日益扩大的分歧。

Mr. Putin invited and hosted Mr. Lam and his wife in Moscow in May. On Sept. 2, Russian troops marched through Hanoi with Vietnamese regiments for National Day, reaffirming “the pivotal role of defense cooperation,” according to Vietnamese state media. Two weeks later, one of Mr. Putin’s closest aides, Nikolai Patrusev, was in Hanoi discussing maritime security.

今年5月，普京邀请苏林及其夫人访问莫斯科并予以接待；9月2日，俄罗斯军队与越南军队在河内共同参加国庆阅兵，越南官方媒体称此举旨在重申“国防合作的核心作用”；两周后，普京核心助手尼古拉·帕特鲁舍夫到访河内，讨论海上安全问题。

俄罗斯士兵参加了9月的越南国庆阅兵，标志着两国防务合作重启。

All of the back and forth suggests that for Mr. Putin, Asia has become a place to disrupt American and Chinese plans, and to counter the argument that their rivalry is all that matters.

这些往来表明，对普京而言，亚洲已成为扰乱美中计划的舞台，同时也可反驳美中竞争是全球唯一重要议题的观点。

“Russia under Putin wants to be an independent great power,” said Michael A. McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, “not just the junior partner in the autocratic world.”

“普京领导下的俄罗斯希望成为具有独立地位的大国，而非专制国家阵营中的次要伙伴，”前美国驻俄罗斯大使迈克尔·麦克福尔表示。

Beijing seems unconcerned, saying little publicly but still making theatrical displays of its influence.

中国方面似乎对此不以为意，虽未公开表态，但仍在戏剧性地展示其影响力。

Chinese troops joined Vietnamese military parades in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi this year — in a country that fought Chinese domination for 1,000 years. Vietnam, Russia and North Korea all sent high-level delegations to Beijing for China’s own extravagant military parade.

今年，中国军队在胡志明市与河内参加了越南的军事阅兵——而越南为反抗中国统治进行了持续千年的斗争。此外，越南、俄罗斯与朝鲜均派遣高级代表团出席了中国盛大的军事阅兵活动。

Mr. McFaul said that when he meets with China’s Russia experts, their nationalist self-regard dilutes anxiety about Mr. Putin.

麦克福尔表示，在与中国研究俄罗斯问题的专家交流时发现，这些专家的民族主义自豪感淡化了他们对普京的担忧。

“They don’t respect Russia as a great country,” he said. “They see them as a bunch of peasants. The Chinese have a sense of themselves, like, ‘We’ve been a great power for thousands of years, we’re there again, while these guys, the Russians, they’re on the periphery of the global system.’”

“他们并不认可俄罗斯是大国，反而将其视为一群农民，”他说，“中国人对自身有种认知，他们认为‘我们几千年来一直是大国，如今再度崛起，而俄罗斯人只是全球体系的边缘角色’。”

As it has for a long time, though, Vietnam aims to take the long view. For its leaders, swings in influence now do not dictate future events.

但长期以来，越南始终秉持长远视角。对其领导人而言，当前各方影响力的波动，并不能决定未来局势走向。

As Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam’s famous nationalist, said in 1966: “Everything depends on the Americans. If they want to make war for 20 years, then we shall make war for 20 years. If they want to make peace, we shall make peace and invite them to tea afterward.”

正如越南著名民族主义者胡志明1966年所言：“一切取决于美国人。若他们想打20年仗，我们就打20年；若他们想和平，我们就讲和，然后请他们喝茶。”

9月越南国庆纪念活动上的胡志明像。