The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has fractured the Iranian government, complicating its ability to make decisions and coordinate larger retaliatory attacks, according to officials familiar with U.S. and Western intelligence assessments.

据了解美国及西方情报评估的官员透露，美以对伊朗发动的战争已导致伊朗政府体系出现分裂，其决策能力、协调大规模报复性袭击的能力均受到严重影响。

Several dozen Iranian leaders and their deputies have been killed since the war began four weeks ago. Those who survive have had difficulty communicating and are unable to meet in person, for fear of having their calls intercepted by the United States or Israel and being targeted in an airstrike.

自四周前战争爆发以来，已有数十名伊朗高层官员及其副手丧生。幸存的官员难以开展正常沟通，也无法当面会晤，因为他们担心通话会被美以两国截听，进而成为空袭的打击目标。

While Iran’s security and military agencies continue to function, the government’s ability to plan new strategies or policies has been weakened.

尽管伊朗的安全与军事机构仍在运转，但该国政府制定新战略、新政策的能力已被大幅削弱。

The Trump administration has said a new government is in charge in Iran and has pressed it to make a quick deal. But the more degraded Iranian government decision making becomes, the more difficult it will be for it to negotiate with American envoys or make significant concessions.

特朗普政府称，伊朗目前已由新政府掌权，并向该新政府施压要求迅速达成协议。但伊朗政府的决策能力越退化，就越难与美国特使展开谈判，也越难做出重大让步。

特朗普总统及其政府表示，伊朗已由新政府掌权，并敦促该新政府尽快达成协议。

With different leaders in place, Iranian negotiators may have little knowledge about what their government is willing to concede, or even whom precisely to ask.

由于掌权的领导层频繁更迭，伊朗谈判代表可能完全不清楚本国政府愿意做出哪些让步，甚至不知道该向谁请示。

What is more, American officials say hard-liners within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps have become more influential in Iran, exerting more power than the religious leadership nominally in charge.

此外，美国官员表示，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队内部的强硬派势力在国内的影响力进一步上升，其掌握的实权已超过名义上掌权的宗教领导层。

But whether someone emerges to make a deal, and whether that person can persuade other officials to agree to it, is far from clear. Former American officials say Iran will make a deal when it suffers enough economic pain from the war. While the damage has been severe, Iran may not yet feel as though it is losing, according to current and former officials.

但目前尚不清楚是否会有人出面敲定协议，也无法确定此人能否说服其他官员认可协议内容。美国前政府官员称，只有当伊朗因战争遭受足够的经济痛苦时，才会同意签署协议。多名现任及前任官员均表示，尽管伊朗已遭受重创，但该国目前可能仍不认为自己处于战败状态。

On Monday, President Trump threatened to expand the war if a deal was not quickly reached, suggesting that U.S. forces might try to take Kharg Island, Iran’s main hub for oil exports.

周一，特朗普总统发出威胁，称若不能迅速达成协议，将扩大战争规模，还暗示美军可能会试图夺取伊朗石油出口核心枢纽哈尔克岛。

Iran’s compromised communications have caused confusion and paranoia among the surviving government leaders, who fear that their calls and messages are being intercepted by Israeli intelligence, officials say. As a result, they have been reluctant to make calls, according to officials briefed on Western intelligence assessments.

官员透露，伊朗的通信系统已遭破坏，这在幸存的政府高层中引发了混乱与猜疑，他们担心自己的通话和信息会被以色列情报机构截获。据了解西方情报评估的官员称，正因如此，这些高层官员一直不愿进行通话联络。

Israel began the war with a strike on the leadership compound that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and much of the national security leadership. A number of lower-level officials seen by the United States as more pragmatic were also killed in the strike, U.S. officials said. Mr. Trump himself made reference in interviews that potential candidates to lead Iran had been killed.

以色列以一场针对伊朗最高领袖官邸的空袭拉开了战争序幕，这场袭击导致伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊及大部分国家安全领导层身亡。美国官员称，多名被美方视为态度更务实的中低层官员也在此次空袭中丧生。特朗普本人在采访中也提及，有望执掌伊朗的潜在人选已在袭击中身亡。

The attack severed many connections between security, military and civilian policymakers, according to Western officials and others briefed on government assessments.

据西方官员及了解相关政府评估的人士透露，这场袭击切断了伊朗安全部门、军方与民事政策制定部门之间的大量联络。

It is unclear how much control the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is exerting over the government. He has not been seen in public, and U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies believe he was wounded during the war.

目前尚不清楚伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊对政府的实际掌控力度。他一直未公开露面，美以两国情报机构均认为他在战争中受了伤。

周一以色列和美国对德黑兰发动空袭后的景象。

Some intelligence officials believe that Mr. Khamenei may be more of a figurehead, and that the surviving leadership of the Revolutionary Guards is making the decisions.

部分情报官员认为，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊可能更多只是傀儡，实际决策权掌握在革命卫队幸存的领导层手中。

A senior U.S. military official said Iranian command and control has been badly degraded by American and Israeli strikes. Still, the official and a senior intelligence official said, before the war Iran built a decentralized control system that allows local commanders in different regions of the country to make their own strike decisions, even in the absence of direct day-to-day orders from Tehran.

一名美军高级官员表示，美以两国的空袭已严重摧毁了伊朗的指挥控制系统。但该官员与一名高级情报官员还指出，伊朗在战前就已建立了一套去中心化的指挥体系，即便没有来自德黑兰的日常直接指令，该国不同地区的地方指挥官也可自行做出打击决策。

The United States is targeting those local commanders, the senior military official said. Nevertheless, Iran has proved it can still launch substantial offensive strikes like the missile and drone attack at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia last week.

这名高级官员称，美方已将这些地方指挥官列为打击目标。尽管如此，伊朗已证明其仍有能力发动大规模攻势，比如上周针对沙特阿拉伯苏丹王子空军基地的导弹与无人机袭击。

But the retaliatory attacks have not been as large, or as effective, as they might have been because of the problems in the Iranian government. Given the decimation of its leadership, former U.S. officials say, Iran has been unable to launch larger barrages of missiles that could more easily overwhelm defenses. Instead, regional commands have had to muster counterattacks without coordinating with one another.

但受伊朗政府内部问题影响，这些报复性袭击的规模与效果均未达到原本可实现的水平。美国前政府官员称，由于领导层伤亡惨重，伊朗无力发动规模更大、更易突破防御系统的密集导弹打击，只能由各地区指挥部在互不协同的情况下各自组织反击。

Mr. Trump has expressed frustration with what he has portrayed as mixed messaging from the Iranian leadership.

特朗普对伊朗领导层释放的前后矛盾的信号表达了不满。

“The Iranian negotiators are very different and ‘strange,’” Mr. Trump wrote on social media on Thursday. “They are ‘begging’ us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only ‘looking at our proposal.’”

特朗普上周四在社交媒体上发文称：“伊朗谈判代表和以前大不一样，而且‘古怪’。他们‘乞求’我们达成协议——既然他们在军事上已被彻底击溃，毫无翻盘可能，这本来就是他们该做的事——然而却在公开场合却声称只是在‘研究我们的提案’。”

Over the weekend, Mr. Trump said the campaign of airstrikes had resulted in new leadership in Iran and again claimed progress in talks.

上周末，特朗普表示，持续的空袭行动已促成伊朗领导层更迭，并再次宣称谈判取得了进展。

“It’s a whole different group of people,” Mr. Trump said on Sunday. “So I would consider that regime change, and frankly, they’ve been very reasonable.”

特朗普周日称：“现在是完全不同的一群人。所以我会认为这算得上政权更迭，坦白说，他们一直很通情达理。”

In a social media post on Monday, Mr. Trump offered optimistic assessments of the current government but also threatened to expand the war by targeting energy and civilian infrastructure. He said that if a deal was not reached shortly, and if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, he would attack Iran’s electrical generation plants, oil wells and desalination plants.

在周一的社交媒体帖子中，特朗普对伊朗现任政府给出了乐观的评价，但也威胁要将战争扩大到能源和民用基础设施领域。他表示，若短期内无法达成协议，且霍尔木兹海峡持续处于关闭状态，美军将袭击伊朗的发电厂、油井与海水淡化厂。

People briefed on intelligence assessments said Mr. Trump’s frustration reflected the inability of the current Iranian government to coordinate a response and make a decision about the American peace proposals.

了解相关情报评估的人士表示，特朗普的不满恰恰反映出伊朗现任政府无力协调应对措施，也无法就美方的和平提案做出最终决策。

Israeli officials have said the communication problems in Iran are not dissimilar to the problems with hostage negotiations during the Gaza war. In Gaza, offers from the United States and Israel went to Hamas leaders in Qatar, and then were conveyed in written notes to leaders in Gaza, a time-consuming process that introduced confusion.

以色列官员表示，伊朗当前面临的通信问题与加沙战争期间人质谈判遭遇的问题极为相似。加沙战事中，美以两国提出的方案先要递交给身处卡塔尔的哈马斯领导层，再由他们以书面形式转交给加沙当地的领导人，这一过程耗时漫长，极易引发信息混乱。