Ever since President Trump began raising tariffs on goods from China during his first term, Chinese companies have raced to set up warehouses and factories in Southeast Asia, Mexico and elsewhere to bypass U.S. tariffs with indirect shipments to the American market via other countries.

自从特朗普总统在第一个任期内开始提高对中国商品的关税以来，中国公司竞相在东南亚、墨西哥等地设立仓库和工厂，通过绕道其他国家将商品输往美国市场避开美国的关税。

But on Thursday, Mr. Trump took aim at all indirect American imports, which he blames for part of the $1.2 trillion U.S. trade deficit. The president imposed 40 percent tariffs on so-called transshipments, which will take effect in a week. And a senior administration official who briefed reporters said work was underway that could broaden considerably the definition of indirect shipments.

但在上周四，特朗普将矛头指向了所有间接进入美国的进口商品，他认为这些商品是导致美国1.2万亿美元贸易赤字的部分原因。总统将对所谓的转运商品征收40%的关税，新规将在一周后生效。一位向记者介绍情况的高级政府官员表示，相关工作正在进行中，未来可能会大幅扩大“间接运输”的定义。

The new rules cover indirect shipments from anywhere, not just China. But China, with its massive factory infrastructure and expansive manufacturing ambition, has been the main country to develop a global network for such shipments. Trade experts were quick to predict that China would be the most affected — and the most annoyed.

新规适用于来自任何国家的间接运输货物，而不仅仅是中国。但中国凭借其庞大的工厂基础设施和磅礴的制造业雄心，已成为建立此类全球运输网络的主要国家。贸易专家随即预测，中国将是受影响最大的国家——也是最为不满的国家。

“The trade provisions are a thinly veiled attempt to box in China — China will view them as such, and this will inevitably spill over into trade discussions with the United States,” said Stephen Olson, a former American trade negotiator who is now a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a research group in Singapore.

“这些贸易条款是明显意在遏制中国的尝试——中国会这样看待它们，这势必会波及与美国的贸易谈判，”曾担任美国贸易谈判代表、现任新加坡智库尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院高级研究员的史蒂芬·奥尔森表示。

Mr. Trump’s executive order Thursday created a new category of imports: goods that are transshipped through other countries instead of coming straight from the country of origin. The 40 percent tariffs on these goods will be on top of whatever tariffs would have applied if the goods had come directly from the country where they were originally made.

特朗普在上周四签署的行政命令创造了一个新的进口类别：通过其他国家转运的商品，而非直接来自原产国。这类商品将被加征40%的关税，它是在原本适用于这些商品（若其直接从原产国进口）的关税基础上额外征收的。

The legal definition of transshipment is quite narrow: a good that did not undergo a “substantial transformation” in the country through which it was indirectly shipped. Countries in Southeast Asia like Vietnam have long denied that they allow a lot of transshipment, and they have been tightening inspections to prevent it.

法律上对转运商品的定义相当严格：指的是在中转国并未发生“实质性转变”的商品。像越南这样的东南亚国家长期以来一直否认其允许大量转运行为，并且一直在加强检查以防止这种情况发生。

They contend that their soaring imports of Chinese components are being assembled into new and different products that can appropriately be labeled made in their countries, and not labeled “made in China.”

他们坚称，进口激增的中国零部件已在本国被组装成了全新且不同的产品，因此合理地应被标注为本国产品，而不应标注为“中国制造”。

7月，特朗普总统在椭圆形办公室与菲律宾总统马科斯举行双边会晤。

In addition to the new 40 percent tariffs on transshipment, the Trump administration plans to put in place so-called rules of origin for indirect shipments in “a few weeks,” the senior administration official said.

这名政府高级官员表示，除了对转运商品征收新的40%关税外，特朗普政府还计划在“几周内”针对间接运输实施所谓的“原产地规则”。

Rules of origin are meant to assure importers that goods really were manufactured where their sellers say they were.

原产地规则旨在确保进口商能够确认商品确实是在卖方所宣称的国家生产的。

To be effective, rules of origin must be written strictly, as they are for goods to qualify for free trade agreements with the United States. For example, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement, require that as much as 75 percent of cars be manufactured in North America to qualify for duty-free treatment in crossing borders.

为了发挥效力，原产地规则必须制定得非常严格，就像适用美国自由贸易协定的商品所需满足的条件一样。例如，取代《北美自由贸易协定》的《美墨加协定》规定，汽车必须包含高达75%的北美地区产零部件，才能在跨境时享受免关税待遇。

Brad Setser, an official under the Obama and Biden administrations who is now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that setting rules of origin could make a big difference. “The most significant long-term change from the Trump tariff barrage may be creating rules of origin that define the Chinese content,” he said.

布拉德·塞特瑟曾在奥巴马和拜登政府任职，现任外交关系委员会高级研究员，他表示，制定原产地规则可能带来重大影响。“特朗普大规模关税措施中最重要的长期变化可能就是制定能够界定中国产品的原产地规则，”他说。

But other experts were less convinced that the Trump administration would set stringent rules, particularly when discussions have been underway for a possible summit this autumn between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader. The Chinese government has called for the removal of tariffs on its exports and further tightened its considerable restrictions on the purchase of American goods.

但其他专家对此持保留态度，他们认为特朗普政府未必会制定严格的规则，尤其是在特朗普总统与中国最高领导人习近平可能于今秋举行峰会的商讨正在进行之际。中国政府要求取消对其出口商品的关税，同时进一步收紧了采购美国商品的诸多限制。

“There is nothing in there about content from certain countries, and that is helpful because it means that they aren’t risking the wrath of China at this point in time,” said Deborah Elms, the head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore.

“规则中没有涉及特定国家的内容，这很有帮助，因为这意味着他们目前并没有惹恼中国的风险，”新加坡韩礼士基金会贸易政策主管黛博拉·埃尔姆斯说道。

The first country-specific trade deal reached by Mr. Trump to tackle transshipment head on was one on July 2 with Vietnam. It included a 40 percent provision on goods indirectly shipped from China. The provision has turned out to be a blueprint for a sweeping new strategy to limit China’s role in the world’s supply chain.

特朗普为直接解决转运问题达成的首个国别贸易协定是7月2日与越南达成的协议。该协议包含对从中国转运的商品征收40%关税的条款。这一条款已成为限制中国在全球供应链中角色的全面新策略的蓝图。

But a month later, Vietnam has not publicly confirmed the transshipment provision. With the exception of Indonesia, transshipment tariffs also have not been featured in announcements of subsequent deals with other countries in Southeast Asia.

但一个月后，越南尚未公开确认转运条款。除印尼外，转运关税也没有出现在美国随后与东南亚其他国家达成的协议公告中。

In recent weeks, Mr. Trump has also modulated his strident tone on China. He reversed a previously hard line position on the export of artificial intelligence chips to China. Not long after, he told the president of the Philippines that he didn’t mind if the country got along with China because the United States also had a good relationship with China.

最近几周，特朗普对中国的强硬语气有所缓和。他撤回了此前在向中国出口人工智能芯片问题上的强硬立场。不久之后，他还告诉菲律宾总统，他并不介意菲律宾与中国保持良好关系，因为美国同样与中国有着良好的关系。

越南胡志明市一家纺织厂的生产线。

For countries in Southeast Asia that had raced to placate Mr. Trump over the months since he first announced his reciprocal tariffs, the flip flopping has created both a sense of uncertainty and a dose of cynicism about the new agreements they have with the United States.

对于那些自特朗普首次宣布对等关税以来，纷纷争相安抚他的东南亚国家来说，这种反复无常不仅带来了不确定感，也让他们对与美国签订的新协议产生了一定程度的怀疑。

At the same time, many countries in Southeast Asia have explored ways to crack down on Chinese companies that reroute exports through their countries without doing any further processing. Governments in the region have streamlined customs practices and promised to quash counterfeit and illegal trade. They have given serious thought to reducing the amount of Chinese content in the products they assemble and export.

与此同时，许多东南亚国家也在研究如何打击那些仅通过本国转运出口，却未进行任何加工的中国企业的方法。该地区各国政府简化了海关流程，并承诺打击假冒伪劣和非法贸易。他们还认真考虑减少中国零部件在其组装和出口产品中的比例。

For the Malaysian government, which received a 19 percent tariff, the idea of taking China out of the global supply chain was always going to be a big request.

对于被征收19%关税的马来西亚政府来说，将中国排除在全球供应链之外的想法一直都是一项艰巨的要求。

“How should I put it? Everyone can have an aspiration,” Liew Chin Tong, the deputy trade minister of Malaysia, said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur last week. “But when aspiration meets actual execution, well we’ll have to wait and see.”

“我该怎么说呢？每个人都可以有自己的雄心壮志，”马来西亚副贸易部长刘镇东上周在吉隆坡接受采访时表示。“但雄心壮志遇到实际操作，我们只能拭目以待。”

The absence on Thursday of specific measures naming China may be a reflection of the Trump administration’s efforts to reach a deal with America’s biggest economic rival, said Priyanka Kishore, an economist in Singapore. China recently showed that it could pull its own trade levers when it halted the export of rare earth magnets crucial for the car, semiconductor and aerospace industries.

新加坡经济学家普里扬卡·基肖尔表示，美国上周四的命令未提及针对中国的具体措施，这可能反映了特朗普政府试图与美国最大经济竞争对手达成协议的努力。此前，中国曾通过暂停出口对汽车、半导体和航空航天产业至关重要的稀土磁铁，展示了其在贸易中利用自身贸易杠杆的能力。

“That really brought to the Trump administration’s attention to the fact that this is a formidable country on the other side of the table — China really put up a strong front, and since then there has been some softening on transshipment,” said Ms. Kishore, who is the founder of Asia Decoded, a consulting firm.

“这件事确实让特朗普政府意识到，谈判桌另一边是一个强大的对手——中国确实摆出了强势姿态，从那以后，美国关于转运问题的立场有所软化，”咨询公司Asia Decoded创始人普里扬卡·基肖尔女士说道。

Multinationals like Walmart account for a sizable share of U.S. imports and have fairly detailed information on how their products are made. But some analysts question whether U.S. Customs and Border Enforcement is capable of identifying whether or not packages really come from China.

像沃尔玛这样的跨国公司在美国进口中占据相当大的份额，并且掌握着相当详细的产品制造过程信息。但一些分析人士质疑，美国海关与边境保护局是否有能力识别包裹是否真的来自中国。

“Enforcement is likely to be challenging, and even if outright rerouting is reduced, trade diversion will continue to dampen the impact of U.S. tariffs on China’s aggregate export performance,” Capital Economics, an economic analysis consulting firm, said in a research note.

经济分析咨询公司Capital Economics在一份研究报告中表示：“执法可能会面临挑战，即使直接转运有所减少，贸易转移仍将继续削弱美国关税对中国整体出口表现的影响。”