The Trump administration plans to file a trade investigation into China’s failure to uphold the terms of a trade deal signed in President Trump’s first term, according to two people familiar with the investigation.

据两名知情人士透露，特朗普政府计划针对中国未能履行其第一任期内签署的贸易协议条款发起贸易调查。

The move could result in more tariffs and risk increasing tensions between the United States and China. It would follow weeks of strained relations between the world’s two largest economies, and could be an effort by the United States to try to amass leverage before a meeting next week between Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s leader.

此举可能导致美国对中国加征更多关税，并进一步加剧两国紧张关系。当前中美这两个全球最大经济体的关系已紧张数周，美方此举或意在下周特朗普与中国国家主席习近平会面之前积累谈判筹码。

The investigation, which could be announced as soon as Friday, would be filed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. That section allows the administration to investigate whether the trade practices of other countries are harming the United States.

该调查最早可能于周五宣布，将由美国贸易代表办公室依据1974年《贸易法》第301条款发起。该条款允许美国政府调查其他国家的贸易行为是否对美国造成损害。

The inquiry could pave the way for more tariffs on Chinese imports, although no such decision has been made. Such investigations have historically taken months to complete. Data released in 2022 showed that China had fallen far short of commitments it made to buy American airplanes, soybeans, energy, services and other products.

尽管尚未作出最终决定，但此次调查可能为美国对中国进口商品加征更多关税铺平道路。历史上，此类调查通常需要数月时间才能完成。2022年发布的数据显示，中国在采购美国飞机、大豆、能源、服务及其他产品方面的表现远未达到承诺目标。

A spokeswoman for the Office of the United States Trade Representative declined to comment.

美国贸易代表办公室发言人拒绝就此置评。

The decision to initiate the case just days before high-level meetings between the United States and China underscored the economic stakes of a trade war that has consumed both countries and could be devastating for businesses on each side.

在中美高层会晤前数日启动该贸易调查凸显出这场席卷两国的贸易战所涉及的巨大经济利益——这场贸易战可能对双方企业造成毁灭性打击。

Since returning to the White House, Mr. Trump has added a 55 percent tariff on Chinese imports. Duties on some goods are much higher as a result of the tariffs the president imposed during his first term. The Chinese government has responded with tariffs on American products, including soybeans, resulting in a loss of business for U.S. farmers.

特朗普重返白宫后已对中国进口商品加征了55%的关税。加上其第一任期内实施的关税政策，部分商品的税率远高于此。中国政府则采取反制措施，对美国大豆等产品加征关税，导致美国农民遭受损失。

China has since raised the stakes, issuing an expansive system to control global trade in products that contain even small amounts of Chinese-produced rare earth minerals. Mr. Trump responded by threatening an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese products starting Nov. 1, as well as export restrictions on American software.

此后，中国进一步升级事态，推出了一套全面的管控体系，凡含有中国产稀土矿物的商品——哪怕只含微量——均在管制之列。特朗普随即回应称，将于11月1日起对中国产品额外加征100%的关税，并对美国软件实施出口限制。

Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi are scheduled to talk in person next Thursday on the sidelines of an international meeting in South Korea, where, analysts believe, the leaders could try to stabilize the relationship. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, flew to Malaysia to hold talks with China’s vice premier, He Lifeng. Those talks were expected to set the table for the meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi.

特朗普与习近平定于下周四在韩国举行的一场国际会议期间举行面对面会谈，分析人士认为，两国领导人可能会借此机会努力稳定双边关系。周三，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特和美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔飞往马来西亚，与中国国务院副总理何立峰举行会谈。预计这些会谈将为特朗普与习近平的会面奠定基础。

Mr. Greer said on CNBC on Wednesday that he and Mr. Bessent would meet with the Chinese “to try to see if there’s room to move forward on some of these really difficult issues that have come up due to some new Chinese measures on rare earths.” He called those measures “incredibly aggressive” and “totally disproportional” to any actions that the United States or its allies had taken against China.

格里尔周三在接受CNBC采访时表示，他和贝森特将与中方会面，“试图探寻在某些极其棘手的问题上取得进展的可能性，这些问题源于中国针对稀土采取的新措施。”他称这些措施“极其激进”，与美国及其盟友针对中国采取的任何行动都“完全不对等”。

The trade case could also provide the Trump administration with a way to keep pressure on Beijing in the coming months if the Supreme Court strikes down other tariffs the president has issued on China. The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments next month in a case against the tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed under a national emergency law, including many on Chinese imports. That court case would not affect any tariffs issued under Section 301.

此外，如果最高法院推翻特朗普政府此前对中国实施的其他关税，此次贸易调查也可为其在未来数月继续向北京施压提供途径。最高法院定于下月聆讯，审理一起针对特朗普依据国家紧急状态法实施的关税（包括许多针对中国进口商品的关税）的案件。该诉讼不会影响依据第301条款实施的任何关税。

It remains to be seen if the new trade case will prove to be a source of leverage against Beijing, or strain trade ties further. The Trump administration has repeatedly complained about China’s failure to comply with terms of a trade agreement signed in 2020, which followed months of negotiations and hefty tariffs imposed by the United States and China on each other’s products.

这起新的贸易调查最终将成为美国向北京施压的筹码，还是会进一步加剧贸易关系紧张，目前尚有待观察。特朗普政府一再抱怨中国未能遵守2020年签署的贸易协议条款——该协议是在双方数月谈判及相互加征高额关税后达成的。

In the deal, Chinese officials committed to buying an additional $200 billion worth of American goods and services, including natural gas, soybeans and airplanes. They also agreed to open markets to American companies and provide greater protection for American technology and trade secrets, among other changes.

根据该协议，中国官员承诺额外采购价值2000亿美元的美国商品和服务，包括天然气、大豆和飞机。中方还同意向美国企业开放市场，并加强对美国技术和商业秘密的保护等。

But after the deal was signed, the Covid-19 pandemic hit, and trade cratered. An analysis found that China had fallen far short of meeting its commitments. The Peterson Institute for International Economics calculated that, in the end, China had bought only 58 percent of the American exports it had committed to buy, not even enough to reach its import levels from before the trade war.

但协议签署后，新冠疫情爆发，贸易活动大幅萎缩。一项分析发现，中国远未实现其承诺目标。彼得森国际经济研究所计算得出，中国最终仅采购了其承诺数量58%的美国出口商品，甚至未达到贸易战前的进口水平。

Michael Wessel, a former commissioner on the U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commission, called China’s impact on American producers and workers “devastating.” He said that “promises made in the past have not been kept, and China needs to be held accountable.”

前美中经济与安全审查委员会委员迈克尔·韦塞尔称，中国对美国生产商和工人造成的影响“具有毁灭性”。他表示，“中国过去作出的承诺未能兑现，必须追究其责任。”

The Trump administration has blamed the Biden administration for failing to hold China to the terms of the agreement. But many analysts said the targets were unrealistic to begin with.

特朗普政府指责拜登政府未能迫使中国履行协议条款，但许多分析师表示，这些目标从一开始就不切实际。

“China was never on pace to meet its purchase commitments,” wrote Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute who did the analysis and later served an official under the Biden administration.

“中国从未按计划履行其采购承诺，”彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员查德·鲍恩写道。他负责了上述分析，后来在拜登政府任职。

Some analysts have questioned how far more levies can get the Trump administration, with so many tariff threats already on the table.

一些分析人士质疑，在已有多项关税威胁的情况下，特朗普政府进一步加征关税能取得多大成效。

Greta Peisch, a lawyer at Wiley Rein and a former U.S. trade official, said the U.S. trade case would “put the spotlight” on China’s recent pullback of purchases of soybeans and other agricultural products, which were a major part of the purchasing commitments in the first term.

威利莱恩律师事务所律师、前美国贸易官员格里塔·派施表示，美国的这起贸易案件将“聚焦”中国近期减少大豆及其他农产品采购的行为——这些是特朗普第一任期内采购承诺的主要内容。

But she pointed to a certain irony: The Chinese have said their falling soybean purchases were due to Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which prompted China to respond with levies of its own on U.S. soybeans and other products.

但她指出了一个颇具讽刺意味的事实：中方表示，其减少大豆采购是由于特朗普的关税政策，该政策促使中国对美国大豆及其他产品加征了反制关税。

“Because the pullback on purchases was a result of tariff escalations in part, it isn’t clear that a threat of higher tariffs is going to resolve that issue,” Ms. Peisch said.

“由于采购减少在一定程度上是关税升级的结果，因此尚不清楚提高关税的威胁能否解决这一问题，”派施说。