Historical analogies are never exact. But with the tenuous cease-fire deal in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, some are asking whether this is a “Suez” moment for the United States, marking the waning of American power and credibility in the world.

历史类比从来都不是完全准确的。但随着美以对伊战争达成脆弱的停火协议，有人开始质疑：这是否标志着美国面临“苏伊士时刻”，预示着美国全球实力与公信力的正式衰退？

The Suez crisis took place in October 1956, when Britain, France and Israel attacked Egypt to force open the Suez Canal. President Dwight D. Eisenhower, with an election days away, ordered them to stop. Prime Minister Anthony Eden of Britain resigned. President Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt became a hero of anti-colonialism.

苏伊士危机发生在1956年10月，当时英国、法国与以色列联合进攻埃及，试图强行重开苏伊士运河。当时距离大选仅剩数日，美国总统艾森豪威尔下令三国立即停火。英国首相安东尼·艾登随后辞职，埃及总统贾迈勒·阿卜杜勒·纳赛尔则成为了反殖民主义的英雄。

Suez became shorthand for the moment that Britain, exhausted from World War II, gave way as a global power to the United States.

苏伊士从此成为一个代名词，象征着二战后元气大伤的英国将全球主导地位让给美国。

There are differences from that time. The Suez Canal is man-made and wholly in Egyptian territory, unlike the international waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. There is no other global power capable of replacing America in the region, let alone ordering President Trump around.

如今的情况与当时有所不同。与作为国际水道的霍尔木兹海峡不同，苏伊士运河是人工开凿的，且完全位于埃及领土内。如今也没有任何其他全球大国有能力在该地区取代美国，更遑论对特朗普总统发号施令。

But the two-week cease-fire leaves the Islamic Republic in place and still in command of the future of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran’s nuclear stockpile and ballistic missile program unresolved. After Mr. Trump’s declaration of victory, however hollow, it is difficult to imagine a resumption of full-scale war.

但这份为期两周的停火协议让伊朗伊斯兰共和国政权得以存续，且依然掌控着霍尔木兹海峡的未来，伊朗的核储备与弹道导弹计划问题也仍未解决。尽管特朗普的胜利宣言空洞无物，但很难想象全面战争会再度爆发。

For the rest of the world, the war “is starting to look like a military defeat, more serious than Iraq or Afghanistan,” said Bruno Maçães, former secretary of state for European affairs for Portugal.

葡萄牙前欧洲事务国务秘书布鲁诺·马萨埃斯表示，对世界其他国家而言，这场战争“已经开始显现出军事失败的迹象，其严重性甚至超过伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争”。

“The myth of America as all-powerful is important,” he added, “and it’s the basic requirement of a global hegemon to keep the oil flowing, to open up the strait and keep it open. This belief in an all-powerful America that can solve anything is disappearing.”

“美国无所不能的神话至关重要，”他还说。“保障石油流通、打通海峡并维持海峡畅通是全球霸主的基本职责。而这种相信美国能解决一切问题的信念正在消失。”

Keeping sea lanes open for American goods and global trade is one of the few permanent interests the United States has in the Middle East, as well as in Asia.

保障美国商品与全球贸易的航道畅通是美国在中东乃至亚洲为数不多的永久利益之一。

The war in Iran shut down the strait. Now, the Iranian military is still in control of the passageway and is likely to demand large tolls. “The strategic rationale for the American military presence in the region has taken a huge hit,” said Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington.

这场对伊战争导致了海峡关闭。如今，伊朗军方依然掌控着这条航道，且很可能会收取高额通行费。“美国在该地区军事存在的战略合理性已经遭受了重创，”华盛顿卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员斯蒂芬·韦特海姆说。

The Suez analogy works, Mr. Wertheim said, in that the war in Iran demonstrated “in a single incident the danger of American misgovernance and poor judgment.”

韦特海姆认为，苏伊士的类比之所以成立，是因为这场对伊战争“通过单一事件”，集中揭示了“美国治理失能与决策失误所造成的巨大风险”。

1956年11月，埃及为封锁苏伊士运河而击沉的一艘船。

The war itself and its uncertain outcome, he said, “just accelerates an existing worry shared by countries around the world about what America’s declining quality of governance means for what they can expect from the United States.”

他表示，这场战争本身及其不确定的结局“只会加剧全球各国早已存在的担忧：美国治理能力持续下滑会让各国对美国还能抱有哪些期待呢”。

America’s allies may be unhappy, perplexed and even angry about Trump administration policies, but many of them, especially those in the Persian Gulf and Asia suffering the impact of energy shortages and restrictions, have few other options for security partners.

美国的盟友或许对特朗普政府的政策感到不满、困惑甚至愤怒，但其中许多国家——尤其是饱受能源短缺与限制冲击的波斯湾和亚洲国家——几乎没有其他安全伙伴可选。

But the war and cease-fire deal have diminished American influence and will affect how the allies of the United States view its reliability, said Charles A. Kupchan, a political scientist and director of European studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

但外交关系委员会政治学家、欧洲研究主任查尔斯·库普钱表示，这场战争与停火协议已经削弱了美国的影响力，并将改变盟友对美国可靠性的看法。

The war against Iran was not begun in consultation with allies. And it came after a series of events that have confounded them. Mr. Trump’s tariff wars were an unpleasant shock, but his threat to take Greenland by force if necessary from Denmark, a European and NATO ally, is seen as an inflection point about American predation, unreliability and contempt for traditional friends.

这场对伊战争是在未与盟友商议的情况下发起的。而在此之前，一系列事件早已让盟友们错愕不已。特朗普的关税战已经令人不快，但他威胁必要时将从欧洲盟友及北约盟友丹麦手中武力夺取格陵兰岛更被视为一个转折点，凸显出美国的掠夺性、不可靠性以及对传统盟友的蔑视。

“The Iran war and its economic impact are piling on and reinforce this sense that the U.S. right now has become unpredictable and undependable,” Mr. Kupchan said.

“对伊战争及其经济影响雪上加霜，进一步强化了这样一种认知：如今的美国已经变得不可预测、不可信赖，”库普钱说。

International relations and alliances work on trust. But as Francis Fukuyama of Stanford University wrote on Tuesday, “There has never been a time when the United States was more distrusted, by both traditional friends and by rivals, as at the present.”

国际关系与联盟的基石是信任。但正如斯坦福大学的弗朗西斯·福山周二所写：“美国从未像现在这样，同时遭到传统盟友与对手的普遍不信任。”

A successful dealmaker, he said, needs to generate a minimal amount of trust that he will uphold his end of the bargain. “But reciprocity is a virtue that Trump has never understood or practiced,” he said.

他表示，一个成功的交易者至少需要让对方相信自己会信守承诺。“但互惠原则是特朗普从未理解也从未践行过的美德。”

The war had challenged Washington’s argument that its global primacy was vital to the safety of international trade and the world order. This has been the main justification for the many American bases around the world, and especially in the Middle East.

这场战争动摇了华盛顿长期以来的论调，即美国的全球主导地位对国际贸易安全与世界秩序至关重要。这也是美国在全球各地、尤其是在中东设立众多军事基地的主要理由。

But the war has shown the United States instead acting as a force of disorder and disruption.

但这场战争表明，美国反而成为了制造混乱与动荡的力量。

“By engaging in a war of choice in a critical region for global trade and utterly ignoring the probable consequences for the economies of its closest allies, the Trump administration has destroyed the legitimacy of American power,” asserted Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

“在一个对全球贸易至关重要的地区发动一场自己选择的战争，且完全无视其最亲密盟友的经济可能遭受的后果，特朗普政府已经彻底摧毁了美国霸权的合法性，”昆西负责任治国研究所的阿纳托尔·利文断言。

The impact of a diminished United States is strongest in Europe, which has relied on NATO and the American security guarantee implicit in membership, including the U.S. nuclear umbrella. But Europeans drew a distinction between faith in America and faith in Mr. Trump. The former remains because it is vital for European security.

美国实力衰退的影响在欧洲最为显著。欧洲长期依赖北约以及成员国身份所隐含的美国安全保障——包括美国的核保护伞。但欧洲人已经将对美国的信任与对特朗普个人的信任区分开来。前者依然存在，因为它对欧洲安全至关重要。

Still, Mr. Trump’s policies are inevitably producing a response that will outlast him. The rest of the world is trying to organize itself and derisk from an America that treats its allies as enemies and its traditional enemies, like Russia and China, as friends.

尽管如此，特朗普的政策不可避免地催生了一种应对方式，其影响将超出他的任期——世界各国正在尝试重新调整自身，以规避来自美国的风险——一个将盟友视为敌人、却将俄罗斯和中国等传统对手视为朋友的美国。

Asked if American hegemony has been diminished, the foreign minister of Poland, Radoslaw Sikorski, said, “We hope not, but we fear it might be.”

当被问及美国霸权是否已经削弱时，波兰外长拉多斯瓦夫·西科尔斯基表示：“我们希望不会，但我们担心事实正是如此。”

周一，特朗普总统在白宫举行的新闻发布会上。

NATO has taken a hit from Mr. Trump’s overall policies. He continually calls it “a paper tiger,” despite successfully pushing its members to spend considerably more money on the military. During the war in Iran, he lashed out at the Europeans for not acting to open the strait even though the more powerful U.S. Navy was unable to do so.

特朗普的整体政策已经让北约遭受冲击。尽管他成功推动北约成员国大幅增加军费开支，却仍不断称北约是“纸老虎”。对伊战争期间，他猛烈抨击欧洲各国未能采取行动打通海峡，即便实力更强的美国海军自己也做不到这一点。

Allied resistance to his desires rankles him the most. “It all began with, you want to know the truth, Greenland,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Monday. “They don’t want to give it to us, and I said, ‘Bye-bye.’”

最让他耿耿于怀的是盟友对他意愿的抵制。“说真的，一切都始于格陵兰岛，”特朗普周一告诉记者。“他们不肯给我们，那我就说，‘再见吧。’”

The cumulative impact on NATO is significant, said Rajan Menon, professor emeritus of political science at City University of New York. In the long run, China looks to be the bigger winner.

纽约城市大学政治学荣誉教授拉詹·梅农表示，这些事件对北约的累积影响十分显著。从长远来看，中国似乎是更大的赢家。

“While we look crazed and talk about bombing a country back to the stone age, China looks like a peacemaker and agent of stability,” he said. All the while, Beijing got a chance to watch how the U.S. Navy operates.

“当我们好像发疯一样，扬言要把一个国家炸回石器时代时，中国却扮演着和平缔造者与稳定维护者的角色，”他说。与此同时，北京还获得了观察美国海军作战方式的机会。

“China is looking on with a great deal of glee, and when Trump goes there” for a summit meeting now scheduled for mid-May, “he will be much diminished.”

“中国正幸灾乐祸地看着这一切，而当特朗普前往，”参加5月中旬在中国举行的峰会时，“他的底气将会大减。”

China, which gets so much of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed Iran to agree to the cease-fire, and it is expected to participate in keeping the strait open and guaranteeing safe passage for others.

中国绝大部分石油都需经霍尔木兹海峡运输，因此它推动伊朗达成了停火协议。预计中国还将参与维护海峡畅通，保障各国船只的安全通行。

Much depends on how the war ends, cautioned Mr. Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations.

外交关系委员会的库普钱提醒道，很多事情很大程度上取决于这场战争的收尾方式。

If the cease-fire leads to a deal that imposes significant constraints on Iran’s nuclear program and its ability to cause trouble, he said, that would be much better in the longer run than a frozen conflict or one that “just burns on month after month,” with all the accompanying impact on the energy market and American allies.

他表示，如果停火最终能促成一项协议，对伊朗核计划及其制造麻烦的能力施加实质性限制，那么从长远来看，这远比冲突陷入冻结状态、或是“旷日持久地燃烧下去”要好得多——后者将持续冲击能源市场，并损害美国盟友的利益。