When China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, met with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts in Tokyo last weekend, he said China saw “great potential” for trade and stability if the three neighbors worked together. Citing what he called their shared “Oriental wisdom,” he quoted a proverb, seemingly alluding to the United States as an unreliable, distant ally: “Close neighbors are better than relatives far away.”

中国最高外交官王毅上周末在东京会见日本和韩国外长时表示，在中国看来，如果三个邻国共同努力，贸易和稳定会有巨大的“潜力”。他引用谚语“远亲不如近邻”，称之为三国共有的“东方智慧”，似乎也在暗指美国是一个不可靠的远方盟友。

But even as the officials were talking, two Chinese Coast Guard ships had begun an unusual incursion into waters near disputed islands in the East China Sea. Japan’s coast guard, which moved to intercept them, said the Chinese ships were armed and had been pursuing a small Japanese fishing boat.

但是，就在官员们谈话的时候，两艘中国海警船不寻常地侵入东海争议岛屿附近的水域。前往拦截的日本海上保安厅表示，装备武器的中国船只一直在追赶一艘日本小渔船。

Japan said the incursion, which lasted nearly four days, was China’s longest yet into the waters around the islands, which are claimed by both countries. Japan’s foreign minister said he had protested to Mr. Wang on Saturday about an increase in such activity around the uninhabited islands, which Japan calls the Senkaku and China calls the Diaoyu.

日本表示，此次侵犯持续了近四天，是中国迄今在该争议岛屿周围海域活动时间最长的一次。中日两国都声称对该岛屿拥有主权。日本外相说，关于这些无人居住岛屿（日本称尖阁诸岛，中国称钓鱼岛）周围此类活动的增加，他已于周六向王毅提出抗议。

China’s simultaneous pledges of friendship and deployment of armed ships reflect the two sides of Beijing’s strategy for dealing with a Trump administration that is rapidly recalibrating America’s place in the world.

面对正在迅速调整美国的世界地位的特朗普政府，北京在做出友好承诺的同时部署武装舰艇，反映出其政策的两面性。

China is using a “carrots and sticks” approach with its neighbors, to “reward the policies of the target country that advantage Chinese interests and warn against those policies that are harmful to China,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, the managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based research institution.

位于华盛顿的研究机构德国马歇尔基金会印太项目主任葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)说，中国正在对邻国采取“胡萝卜加大棒”的方式，“对目标国有利于中国利益的政策给予奖励，并警告其不要采取对中国有害的政策。”

去年在争议岛屿（日本称尖阁诸岛，中国称钓鱼岛）附近的一艘中国海警船。这些岛屿由日本控制，中国也声称拥有主权。

On the one hand, as Mr. Trump alienates allies of the United States, including by imposing tariffs and, in Japan’s case, questioning the fairness of a defense treaty, China sees an opportunity to court those countries.

一方面，随着特朗普疏远美国的盟友，包括征收关税，以及——具体到日本——质疑一项防务条约的公平性，中国看到了拉拢这些国家的机会。

On the other hand, China seems to have concluded that Mr. Trump’s abrasive foreign policy gives it leverage to advance its interests when so many U.S. allies are feeling vulnerable and questioning America’s reliability.

另一方面，中国似乎已经断定，在众多美国盟友感到脆弱、质疑美国的可靠性之际，特朗普粗暴的外交政策给了中国推进自身利益的筹码。

“China sees Trump’s alienation of U.S. allies as providing an opportunity, but that doesn’t mean that Beijing will refrain from signaling their dissatisfaction when China’s core interests are being threatened,” Ms. Glaser said.

“中国认为特朗普疏远美国盟友提供了一个机会，但这并不意味着当中国的核心利益受到威胁时，北京就会避免表达不满，”葛来仪说。

That seems to be the case with Australia, which has had, at times, a tumultuous relationship with China. After Prime Minister Anthony Albanese took office in 2022, he moved to repair the relationship. Since then, China has lifted restrictions on a range of Australian exports, including wine, red meat and lobster. Last month, Chinese and Australian defense officials held high-level talks in Beijing for the first time in six years.

澳大利亚似乎就是这种情况，它与中国的关系时不时陷入动荡。安东尼·阿尔巴内斯总理2022年上任后开始修复两国关系。此后，中国取消了对澳大利亚葡萄酒、红肉和龙虾等一系列出口产品的限制。上个月，中国和澳大利亚国防官员在北京举行了六年来的首次高级别会谈。

But just days later, a Chinese naval flotilla began circumnavigating Australia, unannounced. It conducted a live-fire drill in the area for the first time, forcing dozens of civilian flights to reroute.

但就在几天后，一支中国海军舰队在未事先通知的情况下进行了绕澳大利亚航行，并首次在该地区进行了实弹演习，迫使数十架民航班机改变航线。

The exercises set off alarm in Australia and calls to re-evaluate its defenses. Some analysts said the drills were probably a response to the Australian Navy’s frequent voyages in the South China Sea, over which China claims sovereignty. Others said China could have been testing how the Trump administration would react to shows of force so close to one of America’s most trusted allies.

这些演习在澳大利亚引起了警觉，并呼吁重新评估该国防御能力。一些分析人士表示，此次演习可能是对澳大利亚海军频繁在中国声称拥有主权的南海航行的回应。也有人则表示，中国可能是在试探特朗普阵营对如此接近美国最信任的盟友之一的武力展示有何反应。

澳大利亚海军舰艇上的学员。最近，一支中国海军舰队绕澳大利亚航行并进行实弹演习，引起了澳大利亚的警觉。

“Beijing may be trying to see what it can get away with,” hoping to establish a new norm for its operations in the region, said Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. “I suppose one calculation is that if the United States is ineffective or paralyzed, the other actors are unable to do much on their own.”

新加坡国立大学政治学副教授庄嘉颖说，“北京可能是想试探底线，”希望为其在该地区的行动建立一种新的规范。“我认为，它的一种考量是，如果美国无能为力或陷入瘫痪，其他国家只依靠自身，就做不了太多事情。”

China has taken a similar hard-and-soft approach with South Korea and Vietnam. Its trade with Vietnam is flourishing, and it has indicated that it might soon lift an unofficial ban on K-pop entertainment from South Korea.

中国对韩国和越南也采取了类似的软硬兼施的方式。中国与越南的贸易正在蓬勃发展，中国还表示可能很快就会解除对韩流娱乐的非正式禁令。

But China held live-fire drills in the Gulf of Tonkin last month after Vietnam pressed territorial claims in those waters. And it deployed its coast guard near South Korea last week after a Korean vessel tried to inspect Chinese-built steel structures in the area. (South Korea lodged an official protest with Beijing over that incident.)

但在越南对北部湾提出领土主张后，中国上月在该海域举行了实弹演习。上周，在一艘韩国船只试图检查该地区中国建造的钢结构建筑后，中国在韩国附近部署了海警。（韩国就此事件向北京方面提出了正式抗议。）

Such assertive behavior is a reminder that despite the changing geopolitical currents, China remains committed to one of its primary goals, which is to become the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region, said Richard McGregor, a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy think tank in Sydney.

悉尼外交政策智库洛伊研究所东亚问题高级研究员理查德·麦格雷戈说，这种强势的行为提醒人们，尽管地缘政治趋势在变化，中国仍然致力于实现其主要目标之一，即成为亚太地区的主导力量。

“The waters near Japan, in the South China Sea and around Australia are all in a way parts of an indivisible theater of Chinese interests,” he said. “They are going to pursue those goals whatever the ups and downs with the U.S. are. The Chinese also calculate they can do both at the same time. They are embracing while fighting.”

“在某种程度上，日本附近海域、南海，以及澳大利亚周边海域都是中国利益不可分割的一部分，”他说。“无论与美国的关系如何起伏，中国都将追求这些目标。中国人也认为他们可以同时做到这两点。他们软硬兼施。”

Japan’s relationship with China embodies those contradictions.

日本与中国的关系体现了这些矛盾。

The two countries’ ties have thawed in recent months. In January, the Chinese Communist Party’s diplomatic arm held talks with Japan’s governing Liberal Democratic Party for the first time in years. Both nations have loosened visa rules for each other’s tourists, and China has muted its objections to Japan’s release of treated radioactive water from the ruined Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.

最近几个月，两国关系有所缓和。今年1月，中国共产党的外交机构与日本执政党自民党举行了几年来的首次会谈。两国都放松了对对方游客的签证规定，中国对日本从受损的福岛第一核电站释放经处理的放射性水的反对也有所缓和。

Yet tensions persist. This month, Japan said it was considering putting long-range missiles on its southwestern island of Kyushu. Those missiles could target China’s forces if it tried to invade Taiwan, the de facto independent island claimed by Beijing.

但紧张气氛依然存在。本月，日本表示正在考虑在其西南部的九州岛部署远程导弹。如果中国试图入侵台湾，这些导弹就可以打击中国军队。

周五，日本和中国的船只在争议水域开始了持续近四天的对峙。

Meanwhile, Japan says China has been sending more and more ships into waters near the Senkaku islands, which Japan controls, in what Japanese analysts call a strategy to slowly ratchet up challenges to the status quo.

与此同时，日本称中国一直在向日本控制的尖阁诸岛附近海域派遣越来越多的船只，日本分析人士称，这是中国在慢慢加大对现状的挑战。

The latest incursion started before dawn on Friday, when two Chinese Coast Guard ships entered territorial waters around the islet of Minamikojima, apparently chasing a much smaller Japanese fishing boat. Japan’s coast guard said it sent ships to head off the Chinese vessels.

最近的一次侵犯始于周五黎明前，两艘中国海警船进入南小岛附近领海，显然是在追赶一艘小得多的日本渔船。日本海上保安厅表示，已派出船只阻止中国船只。

The Japanese ships protected the fishing boat while demanding that the Chinese withdraw. The Chinese refused, beginning a 92-hour standoff in which the ships sailed side by side, each crew shouting claims to the islands at the other. At one point, two more Chinese ships briefly joined the fray.

日本船只保护渔船，同时要求中方撤离。中方对这一要求予以拒绝，双方开始了长达92小时的对峙，双方船只并排航行，两方船员都向对方大声宣称对该岛屿拥有主权。另有两艘中国船只一度加入其中。

Japan’s coast guard said it finally “forced the Chinese Coast Guard ships to withdraw” late on Monday evening. It said China’s longest previous incursion, in 2023, had lasted almost 81 hours.

日本海上保安厅表示，它最终在周一晚间“迫使中国海警船撤离”。报告称，中国此前最长的一次侵入发生在2023年，持续了近81个小时。

A former Japanese Coast Guard commander, Atsushi Tohyama, called the recent incursion part of a strategy of attrition that began in 2010, when a Chinese fishing trawler rammed a Japanese Coast Guard ship near the Senkakus.

前日本海上保安厅指挥官远山纯司称，最近的这次侵犯是始于2010年的消耗战略的一部分，当时一艘中国拖网渔船在尖阁群岛附近撞击了一艘日本海上保安厅船只。

“They appear to have been provoked by the fishing boat,” Mr. Tohyama said of the Chinese ships involved in the latest standoff. “From what I’ve been told, the fishing boat stayed in waters around the island longer than usual, and the Chinese retaliated in kind.”

“他们似乎受到了渔船的挑衅，”远山在谈到卷入最新对峙的中国船只时说。“据我所知，这艘渔船在该岛周围海域停留的时间比平时长，中方做出了相应的报复。”

“In a dispute like this, even the act of fishing becomes a declaration of sovereignty,” Mr. Tohyama said.

远山说，“在这样的争端中，即使是捕鱼的行为也会成为主权的宣示。”