
Across Asia, countries already vulnerable to the sustained disruption in energy supplies from the Persian Gulf are also contending with an ominous side effect. Their currencies are being suffocated by a dollar that is surging in value.
在亚洲,许多国家本就易受波斯湾能源供应持续中断的影响,如今又在应对一个令人不安的副作用:它们的货币正被不断升值的美元绞杀。
The war in the Middle East has effectively cut off oil and gas that travel through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel that has become the world’s most dangerous bottleneck.
中东战争已经实质上切断经由霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油和天然气,这条狭窄通道成为全球最危险的瓶颈。
The fighting has revealed a second painful choke point. About 90 percent of international trade in goods — including the oil and gas that are skyrocketing in price — uses the American currency.
冲突暴露了第二个痛苦的咽喉要道。大约90%的国际货物贸易——包括价格正在暴涨的石油和天然气——都使用美元作为结算货币。
And as often happens in times of global turmoil, investors are taking money out of riskier regions and putting more money into U.S. assets. That is driving up the dollar, which is approaching its highest value against Asian currencies in the past two decades. A result is that many currencies are growing weaker just when their buying power is most needed.
而在全球动荡时期,投资者往往会将资金从风险较高的地区撤出,转而投入美国资产。这推动美元升值,目前美元兑亚洲货币的汇率正接近过去二十年来的最高水平。结果就是,许多货币在最需要购买力的时候却变得更加疲软。
The combined effect of these pressures has debilitated economies across Asia, where some local energy costs are even higher than global benchmark prices and stock investors are running scared.
这些压力的叠加效应已使亚洲各经济体陷入困境,那里一些本地能源成本甚至高于全球基准价格,而股市投资者则惊慌逃离。
由于柴油短缺和燃油价格上涨,泰国渔业在未来几周内可能面临大量渔船被迫停港的压力。
On Monday, India’s main stock index lost 2.5 percent of its value in the hours before President Trump announced a five-day delay in his plan to bombard Iran’s energy infrastructure — having fallen almost 13 percent since the war started. Those stock market losses have pulled money out of India, pressing its currency, the rupee, lower. South Korea’s currency, the won, had just matched its lowest-ever exchange rate against the dollar, for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008.
周一,在特朗普总统宣布将其轰炸伊朗能源基础设施的计划推迟五天之前,印度主要股指损失了2.5%的价值——自战争爆发以来,该指数已下跌近13%。这些股市损失导致资金流出印度,进一步压低了卢比汇率。韩元兑美元汇率刚刚创下自2008年全球金融危机以来的最低水平。
Both countries have seen some easing of the financial strain in the past few days, keying in on signals that Mr. Trump is seeking an offramp for the war. But deeper risks have taken root.
过去几天,这两个国家都看到金融压力有所缓解,这与特朗普寻求退出战争的信号有关。但更深层的风险已经扎根。
In the Philippines, higher oil prices and a weaker Philippine peso present a “double whammy that will double inflation in the coming months, hitting millions of poor Filipino families the hardest,” the IBON Foundation, an economic research group, said in a note on Friday. The country’s president, Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., declared a national energy emergency on Tuesday. The Philippines imports 90 percent of its oil from the Middle East.
在菲律宾,油价上涨和比索贬值构成了“双重打击,将在未来几个月使通胀加倍,数百万贫困的菲律宾家庭将承受最严重的打击”,经济研究机构IBON基金会周五在一份报告中指出。该国总统费迪南德·R·马科斯二世周二宣布进入全国能源紧急状态。菲律宾90%的石油从中东进口。
菲律宾总统费迪南德·马科斯于周二宣布该国进入国家能源紧急状态。
In South Korea, President Lee Jae Myung started a nationwide energy-saving campaign on Tuesday. Nearly 70 percent of that country’s supply of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
在韩国,李在明总统周二启动了全国节能运动。该国近70%的原油供应需经过霍尔木兹海峡。
The whole world is struggling with the new scarcity of oil, which analysts have estimated to be worse than the 1970s’ shocks.
全世界都在与新的石油短缺作斗争,分析师估计这次冲击比1970年代的石油危机还要严重。
Even in the United States, which became a net energy exporter during the oil-shale boom, the average gallon of gasoline has climbed to $3.98, more than a dollar higher than before the war.
即使随着页岩油大发展已成为净能源出口国的美国,汽油平均价格也已升至每加仑3.98美元,比战前高出超过一美元。
Compare that with what is happening to Asia. First, the shortage of supply is worse. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil traded across the Atlantic Ocean is now about $100, up from $70 a month ago. But because Asian countries buy so much of their oil from the Middle East, the intense demand for the suddenly smaller supply has driven prices even higher.
与亚洲的情况相比,首先是供应短缺更为严重。大西洋两岸交易的布伦特原油价格目前约为每桶100美元,相比一个月前的70美元左右上涨了约30美元。但由于亚洲国家大量从中东购买石油,对突然减少的供应的激烈争夺已将价格推得更高。
The second whammy strikes when those prices are converted into currencies that are shrinking in comparison with the dollar. India’s rupee has been weakening for the past year, even when the dollar itself was shrinking relative to most currencies. One dollar now costs 93.2 rupees, 8 percent more than a year ago.
第二个打击发生在这些价格换算成相对于美元不断贬值的本地货币时。印度卢比在过去一年里一直在贬值,即使当时美元相对于大多数货币都在走弱。现在1美元兑换93.2卢比,比一年前高出8%。
So Indian buyers must pay 14,748 rupees to get exactly as much energy as they got for 6,087 one year before the war.
因此,印度买家现在必须支付14748卢比,才能买到战前一年只需6087卢比就能获得的等量能源。
新加坡裕廊岛的储油罐和炼油厂。
“Having the oil price go up when their exchange rates are already weak is doubly painful,” said Kenneth Rogoff, an economist at Harvard.
“在汇率已经疲弱的情况下油价上涨,是双重痛苦,”哈佛大学经济学家肯尼斯·罗格夫说。
Spending so much on an essential commodity is a cold reality across Asia.
在亚洲各地,为这种必需品花费巨资已成为冷酷的现实。
Thailand’s truck drivers, for example, have said they lack diesel, which like gasoline is refined from crude oil and has leaped in price, to drive goods to and from ports.
例如,泰国的卡车司机表示,他们缺乏柴油(柴油和汽油一样从原油中提炼而成),其价格已大幅上涨,导致货物无法运往港口或从港口运出。
The currency of any country that spends more on imported goods while earning less from exports is losing value to the rest of the world. And when anxious investors shift their capital — often to the dollar, traditionally the safest store of value — that further depreciates the struggling currency.
任何进口支出增加而出口收入减少的国家的货币,都会在全球范围内贬值。而当焦虑的投资者将资本转移——往往转向传统的安全价值储存手段美元,就会进一步加速疲弱货币的贬值。
Thailand’s currency, the baht, had started this year on a stronger footing than India’s rupee. But it has quickly fallen to a 10-month low and is expected to keep sinking as long as the war lasts.
泰铢今年年初的走势强于印度卢比,但现在已迅速跌至10个月低点,并且只要战争持续,预计会继续下沉。
Thailand’s tourism and export industries usually benefit from a weak baht. This time, however, jitters over global travel have led to canceled vacations.
泰国的旅游业和出口业通常会从疲弱的泰铢中受益。然而这一次,对全球旅行的担忧已导致大量度假行程被取消。
The question for nervous governments becomes: How best to distribute the pain? Tradeoffs abound.
紧张的政府面临的问题是:如何更好地分摊这些痛苦?处处都要权衡取舍。
Jahangir Aziz, an economist at JPMorgan Chase in New York, said that for any country, “the question is, how do you want to absorb the hit?” Governments and central banks must make decisions that end up determining who is hurt the worst.
摩根大通纽约首席经济学家贾汉吉尔·阿齐兹表示,对任何国家来说,“问题在于,你想如何吸收这一冲击?”政府和央行必须做出决定,最终谁将受到最严重的伤害。
上周,在斯里兰卡科伦坡,一处近乎空无一人的火车站。此前,政府为节约紧缺的燃油储备,宣布缩短了工作周。
On the one hand, a country’s central bank could stand pat and let the currency’s value shrink. Then the country’s imports become more expensive, but its exports become cheaper. Cheaper exports helps some local businesses, and workers who earn dollars abroad can send home more in remittances to support the domestic economy.
一方面,一国央行可以按兵不动,任由本币贬值。这样该国的进口会变得更贵,但出口会更便宜。更便宜的出口有助于一些本地企业,而在海外赚取美元的工人也能汇回更多钱来支持国内经济。
However, more costly imports mean a country’s households and consumers must bear higher prices. And that can destabilize society and even topple governments. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka ousted political dynasties during recent financial crises. The Asian currency crisis of 1997 ended a 31-year autocracy in Indonesia.
然而,更昂贵的进口意味着该国的家庭和消费者必须承受更高的价格。这可能导致社会动荡,甚至推翻政府。孟加拉国和斯里兰卡曾在最近的金融危机中推翻了政治王朝。1997年的亚洲货币危机结束了印度尼西亚长达31年的独裁统治。
When a government sets out to defend its currency from a surging dollar, Mr. Aziz said, it faces a stark choice: “The only way you do that is by spending very large amounts of foreign reserves — or you let interest rates rise.”
阿齐兹说,当政府决心捍卫本币免受美元飙升的冲击时,它面临一个严峻的选择:“唯一的方法是花费大量外汇储备——或者让利率上升。”
The crisis affecting countries today is nothing like the Asian currency crisis, Mr. Aziz said, in part because of lessons learned back then. Exchange rates are now allowed to float, meaning that currencies’ values fluctuate in sync with supply and demand. And countries have piled up large reserves of dollars and other foreign assets they can use in times like this.
阿齐兹表示,今天影响各国的危机与亚洲货币危机不同,部分原因是当时吸取的教训。如今汇率被允许浮动,即货币价值随供求关系波动。而且各国已积累了大量美元和其他外国资产储备,可在类似时期使用。
Mr. Rogoff of Harvard said the pain borne by Asia this year was likely to make the dollar less attractive in the future.
哈佛大学的罗格夫表示,亚洲今年承受的痛苦很可能让美元在未来变得不那么有吸引力。
“Anything that poses obstacles to global trade and creates geopolitical fracturing is bad for a currency that claims to dominate the whole world,” he said.
“任何对全球贸易构成障碍并造成地缘政治分裂的事情,都对一种声称主导全世界的货币不利,”他说。
上周,在首尔某银行外汇交易点的货币交易员。韩元兑美元汇率刚刚触及了自2008年金融危机以来的最低点。
But the need of the hour across Asia is to scare up enough hard currency to buy urgently needed energy. The future of the dollar’s role, Mr. Rogoff said, will be answered later by a question “about trust in the U.S.: Is it still a safe haven and a safe partner?”
但亚洲各国当务之急是筹集足够硬通货来购买急需的能源。罗格夫说,美元角色的未来,将在稍后由一个关于“对美国的信任”的问题来回答:“它是否仍然是一个安全的避风港和可靠的伙伴?”