When President Trump hosted the crown prince of Saudi Arabia last month, he pulled out all the stops. To the traditional pomp of a formal White House visit, he added a few even fancier touches: a stirring military flyover, a procession of black horses and long, regal tables for the lavish dinner in the East Room instead of the typical round tables.

上个月在白宫接待沙特阿拉伯王储时，特朗普可谓使出了浑身解数。在正式白宫访问的传统排场之外，他又加上了一些更为奢华的点缀：一场激动人心的军机飞行表演，黑马仪仗队，还在东厅举行的盛大晚宴上用华贵的长桌取代了传统的圆桌。

For surprised White House veterans who were paying attention, the unusual flourishes looked a little familiar. Just two months earlier, King Charles III of Britain welcomed Mr. Trump for a state visit that included, yes, a stirring military flyover, a procession of black horses and a long, regal table for the lavish dinner in St. George’s Hall at Windsor Palace.

在留意观察的白宫资深人士眼中，这些非同寻常的安排透着些许熟悉。仅仅两个月前，在接待特朗普的国事访问时，英国国王查尔斯三世同样安排了激动人心的军机飞行表演、黑马仪仗队，以及温莎堡圣乔治大厅盛大晚宴上的华贵长桌。

In his first year back in office, Mr. Trump has unabashedly adopted the trappings of royalty just as he has asserted virtually unbridled power to transform American government and society to his liking. In both pageantry and policy, Mr. Trump has established a new, more audacious version of the imperial presidency that goes far beyond even the one associated with Richard M. Nixon, for whom the term was popularized half a century ago.

重返白宫的第一年里，特朗普毫不掩饰地对皇室排场有样学样，正如他以近乎不受约束的权力按个人喜恶改造美国政府与社会那般。无论仪式排场还是政策上，特朗普都确立了一种新的、更为大胆的“帝王式总统”，其程度甚至远超半个世纪前因理查德·尼克松而被广泛讨论的那种模式。

He no longer holds back, or is held back, as in the first term. Trump 2.0 is Trump 1.0 unleashed. The gold trim in the Oval Office, the demolition of the East Wing to be replaced by a massive ballroom, the plastering of his name and face on government buildings and now even the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, the designation of his own birthday as a free-admission holiday at national parks — it all speaks to a personal aggrandizement and accumulation of power with meager resistance from Congress or the Supreme Court.

他已不再像第一任期那样有所克制，或受到制约。特朗普2.0就是全面释放的特朗普1.0。从椭圆形办公室里的金色装饰到拆除东翼改建巨型宴会厅，从政府建筑乃至肯尼迪表演艺术中心布满他的姓名与肖像到将个人生日定为国家公园免费开放日——这一切都显示出一种个人自我膨胀与权力集中的趋势，而国会或最高法院几乎没有形成有效制衡。

Nearly 250 years after American colonists threw off their king, this is arguably the closest the country has come during a time of general peace to the centralized authority of a monarch. Mr. Trump takes it upon himself to reinterpret a constitutional amendment and to eviscerate agencies and departments created by Congress. He dictates to private institutions how to run their affairs. He sends troops into American streets and wages an unauthorized war against nonmilitary boats in the Caribbean. He openly uses law enforcement for what his own chief of staff calls “score settling” against his enemies, he dispenses pardons to favored allies and he equates criticism to sedition punishable by death.

在美国殖民者推翻国王、建立共和国将近250年后，这或许是这个国家在总体和平时期最接近君主式集权的时刻。特朗普自行其是地重新解读宪法修正案，架空国会设立的机构和部门。他向私营机构发号施令。他把军队派上美国街头，并在加勒比海对非军事船只发动未经授权的战争。他公然将执法行为用于其幕僚长所称的“清算宿敌”，向亲信盟友滥施赦免，并将批评等同于可判处死刑的叛乱行为。

特朗普在白宫宴请沙特王储，其排场与他与英国国王查理三世会面时如出一辙。

Mr. Trump’s reinvention of the presidency has altered the balance of power in Washington in profound ways that may endure long after he departs the scene. Authority once seized by one branch of government is rarely given back willingly. Actions that once shocked the system can eventually become seen as normal. While other presidents pushed the limits, Mr. Trump has blown right through them and dared anyone to stop him.

特朗普对总统职权的重塑已深刻改变了华盛顿的权力平衡，这种影响或许将延续至他离任之后。权力一旦被某个政府部门攫取，便鲜有自愿归还。曾经震惊体制的举动终将被视为常态。尽管其他总统也曾试探权力边界，但特朗普已径直冲破界限，并挑战任何阻止他的力量。

“His second term in many respects represents not simply a break from presidential norms and expectations,” said Matthew Dallek, a political historian at George Washington University. “It’s also a culmination of 75 years in which presidents have reached for more and more power.”

乔治·华盛顿大学政治史学家马修·达莱克指出：“他的第二任期在许多方面不仅意味着对总统规范与预期的背离，更是75年来总统权力持续扩张的顶峰。”

It is also a culmination of four years of planning between Mr. Trump’s first term and his second. The last time around, he was a political novice who did not understand how government worked and surrounded himself with advisers who tried to restrain his most extreme instincts. This time, he arrived in office with a plan to accomplish what he did not in his first term, and a team of like-minded loyalists intent on remaking the country.

这同样也是特朗普在两个任期之间四年筹划的结果。上一次执政时，他还是一名政治新手，不了解政府如何运作，身边是试图约束其极端想法的幕僚。而这一次，他带着完成第一任期未竟之业的计划上任，并配备了一支志同道合、忠诚于他的团队，决心重塑这个国家。

“The president knew exactly what he wanted to do coming into office this time,” said Jason Miller, a longtime Trump adviser. “Now the president had four years under his belt. He knows exactly how everything works. He knows all the international players. He knows all the national players. He knew what strategies and tactics worked the first go around and what strategies didn’t work.”

“总统这次上任时非常清楚自己想做什么，”特朗普的长期顾问杰森·米勒说。“总统现在已经有了四年的执政经验。他非常清楚一切如何运转。他了解所有国际参与者，也了解所有国内关键人物。他知道第一次执政时哪些战略和战术奏效，哪些行不通。”

Strong and Weak

强与弱

The presidency is a living organism, shaped by the person inhabiting it, whether it be self-styled men of action like Andrew Jackson and Theodore Roosevelt, father figures like Dwight D. Eisenhower, legislative wizards like Lyndon B. Johnson or captivating communicators like Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama. More than the sum of the clauses of the Constitution’s Article II, it is an evolving construct, one that has adapted to the ever-changing challenges of a complex and fast-moving world.

总统职位是一个鲜活的有机体，由具体执掌它的人塑造而成——无论是像安德鲁·杰克逊和西奥多·罗斯福那样自诩为行动派的人物，还是像德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔那样的父亲式形象，抑或是林登·B·约翰逊那样的立法高手，或是罗纳德·里根和贝拉克·奥巴马那样极具感染力的沟通者。它不仅仅是宪法第二条各个款项的总和，而是一个不断演进的体系，以适应复杂多变的世界所带来的种种挑战。

Mr. Trump wears it like a cloak. Power is the leitmotif of his second term. For the record, he disclaims royal aspirations. “I’m not a king,” he said after millions of Americans took to the streets in “No Kings” demonstrations in October. But at the same time, he embraces the comparison, at least in part to troll his critics but also, it seems, because he enjoys the notion.

特朗普将总统职权披在身上，如同披着一件斗篷。权力是他第二个任期的主题。表面上，他否认自己有君主野心。“我不是国王，”在10月数百万美国人走上街头参加“No Kings（不要国王）”示威后，他这样表示。但与此同时，他又在欣然接受这种类比——部分是为了嘲讽批评者，但显然也因为他乐于接受这种说法。

He and his staff have posted images of him in monarchical regalia, including an A.I.-generated illustration of him wearing a crown and flying a fighter jet labeled “KING TRUMP” that dumps excrement on protesters. He delighted when the South Koreans gave him a replica of an ancient golden crown. “LONG LIVE THE KING!” he wrote about himself on social media.

他和团队曾发布多张他身着君主服饰的图片，包括一幅由人工智能生成的插图：他头戴王冠、驾驶标有“KING TRUMP（特朗普国王）”的战斗机，向抗议者倾倒粪便。当韩国人送给他一顶古代金冠的复制品时，他很高兴。“国王万岁！”他在社交媒体上这样写道。

6月，俄勒冈州波特兰市举行的“不要国王”示威活动。这是今年全国各地为抗议特朗普的君主制倾向而举行的多场示威活动之一。

To his supporters, Mr. Trump’s assertion of vast power is invigorating, not disturbing. In a country they see in decline, a strong hand is the only way to dislodge a liberal, “woke” deep state that in their view has suffocated everyday Americans to the advantage of unwelcome immigrants, street criminals, globalist tycoons, underqualified minorities and out-of-touch elites. Voters struggling to maintain their standards of living or make sense of a society changing rapidly around them have twice given Mr. Trump a chance to make good on his promise to blow up politics as usual and address their concerns.

在支持者眼中，特朗普对巨大权力的主张令人振奋而非不安。在他们看来，美国正在衰落，只有强腕才能撼动自由派“觉醒”的深层政府。在他们看来，这一体系压迫普通美国人，却让不受欢迎的移民、街头罪犯、全球主义富豪、低素质的少数族裔以及脱离现实的精英阶层受益。那些难以维持生计、或难以适应社会急剧变化的选民已经两次给予特朗普机会，希望他兑现瓦解陈规旧制的政治运作的承诺，并回应他们的诉求。

To his critics, Mr. Trump is narcissistic, uncouth, corrupt and a danger to American democracy. He has used the office to enrich himself and his family, sullied the image of the United States around the world, sought to erase the true history of Black Americans and pursued policies that harm the very people he purports to represent.

而在批评者看来，特朗普自恋、粗俗、腐败，是美国民主的威胁。他利用总统职位为自己和家人牟利，玷污了美国在全球的形象，试图抹去非裔美国人的真实历史，并推行了一系列伤害其宣称所代表群体的政策。

What everyone agrees on is that Mr. Trump dominates the political landscape like none of his predecessors going back generations, single-handedly setting the agenda and forcing his will on the rest of the system. At the same time, he is the most consistently unpopular president since the advent of polling. He has never had the support of a majority of Americans, not in any of his three presidential elections and not for a single day of either term in Gallup surveys.

所有人都认同的是，特朗普正以前所未有的方式主宰政治格局。他只手设定议程，并将自己的意志强加于整个体制之上。与此同时，他也是自民意调查出现以来持续不受欢迎程度最高的总统。根据盖洛普民意调查，在他参与的三次总统选举以及在他两次任期内的任何一天中，他从未获得过多数美国人的支持。

His current 36 percent approval rating in Gallup is lower than that of every elected modern president at the end of their first year, lower even than it was in his first term (39 percent) and seven percentage points below the next-lowest (Joseph R. Biden Jr., at 43 percent). If compared against presidents who served two terms consecutively, Mr. Trump is still below each of them at the end of their fifth year, except Mr. Nixon, who had plummeted to 29 percent in the throes of Watergate.

目前，他在盖洛普民调中的支持率为36%，低于所有当代经选举产生的总统在执政第一年结束时的水平，甚至低于他首个任期同期的数字（39%），也比排名比倒数第二的总统（小约瑟夫·R·拜登，43%）低七个百分点。如果只与连续执政两届的总统相比，特朗普的支持率仍低于他们几乎所有人在执政第五年结束时的支持率，唯一的例外是尼克松——在水门事件风暴中其支持率暴跌至29%。

Some critics predict that Mr. Trump’s unpopularity will begin to erode his power. “It’s been striking that Republicans in Congress have stuck behind him,” said former Senator Jeff Flake, a Republican from Arizona who broke with Mr. Trump in the first term. “But I do think that is changing. Some of it’s not exactly a profile in courage, but it’s looking at the electoral wins and realizing the midterms are going to be very difficult.”

一些批评者预测，特朗普的不受欢迎将开始侵蚀他的权力。“国会共和党人一直站在他身后，这很惊人，”在特朗普的第一任期与其决裂的亚利桑那州前共和党参议员杰夫·弗莱克说。“但我认为这种情况正在改变。有些不是勇气之举，而是看到近期的选举结果后意识到中期选举将非常艰难。”

Mr. Trump’s allies dismiss that as wishful thinking by the president’s critics. Mr. Miller called current polling a “temporary blip” that will reverse as tax cuts passed earlier this year take effect in the first couple of quarters of 2026. “Once the economy rockets to where everyone’s predicting it to be for Q1 and Q2,” he said, “that will all snap back.”

特朗普的盟友认为这是批评者的一厢情愿。米勒称当前民调只是“暂时波动”，一旦今年早些时候通过的减税政策在2026年第一、二季度生效，民调将反弹。他说，“一旦经济像所有人预测的那样在第一、二季度飙升，一切都会迅速回升。”

Bypassing Limits

绕过限制

Presidents have been pushing the boundaries of power going back to the early days of the republic, most aggressively during wartime. Abraham Lincoln suspended habeas corpus even beyond the battlefield and emancipated enslaved people in rebel areas. Woodrow Wilson prosecuted critics of World War I and effectively censored some newspapers. Franklin D. Roosevelt interned more than 100,000 people of Japanese ancestry, including American citizens. In most cases, the pendulum swung back to a degree after the wars were over and security restored.

共和国伊始，总统们就已经在试探权力边界，尤其在战时最为激进。亚伯拉罕·林肯甚至在战场之外暂停人身保护令，并在叛乱地区解放奴隶。伍德罗·威尔逊起诉一战批评者，并实质审查部分报纸。富兰克林·D·罗斯福拘禁了超过10万日裔，包括美国公民。大多数情况下，战争结束且安全得到恢复后，权力天平会在一定程度上回摆。

In the modern era, the notion of an imperial presidency was made prominent by the book of that name published in 1973 by the historian Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., who had worked in John F. Kennedy’s White House. Mr. Schlesinger argued that under Mr. Nixon, who refused to spend certain money appropriated by Congress, secretly bombed Cambodia, wiretapped opponents and used government to pursue his enemies, the presidency “has got out of control and badly needs new definition and restraint.”

在近现代，“帝王式总统”这一概念因1973年历史学家小阿瑟·M·施莱辛格出版的同名书籍而广为人知。施莱辛格曾在约翰·F·肯尼迪的白宫工作。他认为，在尼克松拒绝拨付国会批准的特定款项、秘密轰炸柬埔寨、窃听对手并利用政府追捕敌人的情况下，总统职位“已经失控，急需重新定义和约束”。

The system of checks and balances eventually did reassert itself during Watergate. The Supreme Court unanimously ordered Mr. Nixon to release incriminating tapes and a bipartisan coalition in Congress moved to impeach the president, prompting him to resign. Starting late in Mr. Nixon’s tenure, Congress passed new laws meant to restrain the executive on war powers, impoundment, eavesdropping and government ethics.

在水门事件期间，制衡体系最终重新确立。最高法院一致裁定尼克松交出罪证录音带，国会两党联盟推动弹劾总统，促使其辞职。从尼克松任期末开始，国会接连通过旨在限制行政权的新法案，涵盖战争权力、扣押、窃听和政府操守。

Some argued that the post-Watergate reforms went too far in emasculating the presidency after the voter-abbreviated tenures of Gerald R. Ford and Jimmy Carter. Mr. Reagan and George W. Bush in different ways worked to empower the office again, particularly in foreign policy and national security. Mr. Obama pushed further by exempting from deportation many immigrants who had arrived illegally as children and Mr. Biden unilaterally tried to forgive $400 billion in student loan debt. But all four encountered pushback from the courts and Congress and none went as far as Mr. Trump has.

一些人认为，水门事件后的改革在只有一届任期的杰拉尔德·R·福特和吉米·卡特后过度削弱了总统权力。罗纳德·里根和乔治·W·布什以不同方式重新增强总统权力，尤其是在外交政策和国家安全领域。奥巴马让童年时期非法入境的移民免于遣返、拜登单方面试图免除4000亿美元学生贷款债务，这都是权力的进一步扩张，但这四位总统都遭遇法院和国会的阻击，且都没有像特朗普走得那么远。

“Some of the stuff that people were upset at Nixon for doing was kind of quaint compared to just the totally out-of-control stuff” that Mr. Trump has been doing, said Robert Schlesinger, a son of Arthur Schlesinger and himself a longtime journalist and historian of the White House.

“人们对尼克松做的一些事情感到不安，但相比特朗普完全失控的行为，那些简直是小巫见大巫，”长期研究白宫历史的记者和历史学家、阿瑟·施莱辛格之子罗伯特·施莱辛格说道。

“Even Nixon was a guy who got that there were limits that he had to tread carefully around even as he was trying to push them,” Mr. Schlesinger added. “Whereas Trump, he’s not interested in limits. And whether it’s through a conscious strategy or just unconscious cunning, by being so open about it, it normalizes it to some extent.”

“即便是尼克松也明白界限的存在，在试图突破时仍会小心翼翼，”施莱辛格补充道。“而特朗普对界限不感兴趣。无论是有意策略还是无意识的狡黠，他如此公开行事的方式在某种程度上使越界行为常态化了。”

Working off a Project 2025 blueprint devised by allies during his four years out of power, Mr. Trump came back to office with a raft of executive orders that have allowed the instant-gratification president to dispense with the slow grind of congressional negotiations. So far this year, Mr. Trump has issued about 225 executive orders, nearly three times as many as any other first-year president in three-quarters of a century.

依托盟友在他四年失权期间制定的“2025计划”蓝图，特朗普重返白宫后颁布了大量行政命令，让这位追求即时满足的总统省去了国会谈判的漫长过程。今年迄今，特朗普已签署约225项行政命令，几乎是过去四分之三世纪里任何一位总统在执政第一年所签署命令的三倍。

Mr. Miller credits a more cohesive team. “There are a lot less hangers-on or superfluous characters floating around,” he said. “That White House is about getting things done.”

米勒认为，团队更具凝聚力。他说，“少了很多闲人或多余角色，这个白宫就是为了做事。”

But some Republicans said the lack of contrary voices in the West Wing has a cost. While Mr. Trump has successfully sealed the border as he promised and brokered a fragile cease-fire in Gaza, he looks out of touch on affordability and was rolled by the bipartisan coalition demanding the release of files related to the sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein.

但一些共和党人表示，白宫西翼内缺乏反对声音是有代价的。虽然特朗普如承诺般封锁了边境，并在加沙促成脆弱停火，但他对生活成本问题的看法显得与现实脱节，且在要求公开杰弗里·爱泼斯坦性侵案档案的两党联盟面前被迫让步。

“You live in a bubble if that’s the situation and sometimes you get blindsided by reality,” said Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, one of the few incumbent Republicans who have been critical at times. “I don’t know that he’s hearing that kind of feedback. His first administration he had people who would say, ‘Mr. President, I know what you’re saying, this is what I’m thinking.’” By contrast, Mr. Bacon said, “this time, you’ve got pretty much yes men.”

“如果你生活在泡泡里，有时会被现实打个措手不及，”少数会偶尔批评特朗普的在任共和党人、来自内布拉斯加州的众议员唐·培根说道。“我不确定他是否听到这种反馈。第一任期时，他身边有人会说：‘总统先生，我知道您的意思，但这是我的想法。’而现在，基本上都是唯唯诺诺的人。”

特朗普在白宫召开内阁会议。在其第二个任期内，特朗普身边都是对他忠心耿耿的拥护者。

Imperial or Imperiled?

帝王还是岌岌可危？

As the year ends, there have been signs of resistance to unchecked power. A judge threw out the Trump administration’s indictments against two of the president’s adversaries, Letitia James and James B. Comey, and two grand juries refused to re-indict Ms. James. In addition to legislating release of the Epstein files, Congress passed a measure slashing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s travel budget by 25 percent if he does not turn over video of a second strike on a boat of supposed drug traffickers.

一年接近尾声之际，已经出现了对不受约束权力的抵制迹象。一名法官驳回了特朗普政府对总统的政敌莱蒂西亚·詹姆斯和詹姆斯·B·科米的两项起诉，两个大陪审团也拒绝重新起诉莱蒂西亚·詹姆斯。国会通过立法要求公开爱泼斯坦档案，此外还通过一项法案，要求国防部长皮特·海格塞斯交出对所谓毒贩船只的第二次打击的视频，否则将扣减其25%的差旅预算。

If Democrats win the midterm elections next year, they will surely use their newfound power to push back further against Mr. Trump. Some, like Mr. Flake, predict that even some Republicans will begin to speak out after filing deadlines for possible primary challengers have passed. And the Supreme Court could clip Mr. Trump’s wings on tariffs and birthright citizenship.

如果民主党在明年中期选举获胜，他们必将利用新获得的权力进一步反击特朗普。弗莱克等人预测，甚至一些共和党人也会在初选挑战者报名截止后开始发声。最高法院也可能在关税和出生公民权问题上限制特朗普。

Russell Riley, a presidential historian at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center, acknowledged the nation’s long history of expanding presidential authority. But, he added, “we have an equally robust history of cramming the presidency back into its constitutional box once war or economic crisis has passed.”

弗吉尼亚大学米勒中心的总统历史学家拉塞尔·莱利承认，美国扩张总统权力的历史源远流长。但他补充说，“一旦战争或经济危机过去，我们同样有将总统重新塞回宪法框架的稳定表现。”

That history “strongly suggests that what we are seeing today will not, in fact, endure.” Is that a guarantee? “I’m not smart enough to know the answer to that.”

这些历史“有力地表明，我们今天看到的不会持久”。敢打包票吗？“我尚无足够智慧解答这个问题。”