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致命雨季:越南的极端气候灾害之年

DAMIEN CAVE, TUNG NGO

2025年11月26日

上周,洪水围困了越南的芽庄。 Duc Thao/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Central Vietnam has become the latest epicenter of a deadly rainy season in Asia that has been supercharged by climate change, and seems to drag on without end.

越南中部成为亚洲致命雨季的最新重灾区。受气候变化影响,这场雨季强度空前,而且仿佛看不到尽头。

More than 90 people in the nation have been killed in the past week from flooding and landslides, and around a dozen more are missing, government officials reported Sunday.

越南政府官员周日通报称,过去一周内,该国已有超90人因洪水和山体滑坡丧生,另有约十几人失踪。

In one province, more than six feet of rain has fallen over the past few days. Peak coffee harvesting has been delayed. One government report noted that at least 200,000 homes have been flooded from the weekend’s heavy rains.

在其中一个省份,过去几天的降雨量累计超过约1.8米。咖啡收获季被迫推迟。一份政府报告显示,仅周末的强降雨就导致至少20万户家庭被淹。

00int vietnam flooding 07 vbmj master105010月会安遭遇连日暴雨,居民们背着食物前行。

“It’s never happened like this before,” said Dao Dang Cong Trung, 44, the leader of a small rescue team from Hoi An who took his speedboat to the most damaged areas. “Local residents told me the floodwater rose too fast and they didn’t have time to do anything, so the damage is severe to their houses and many people died.”

“以前从未发生过这样的事,”44岁的陶登公忠(音)是会安一支小型救援队的负责人,他驾驶快艇前往受灾最严重的区域救援。“当地居民告诉我,洪水涨得太快,他们根本来不及反应,所以房屋损毁严重,还有很多人遇难。”

Vietnam has been hit by 14 typhoons this year. Five was the average a few decades ago. The rain from the past few days did not even come from a cyclone — but to add inundation on top of injury, a 15th major storm has just formed off the country’s south central coast.

今年越南已遭遇14次台风侵袭。而几十年前,该国平均每年仅有五场台风。过去几天的强降雨甚至并非由气旋引发——更雪上加霜的是,第15场强风暴又已在越南中南部海岸附近形成。

Images of this year’s relentless battering — of thick, soupy brown water sloshing over homes, shops, coffee plantations, tourist hotels and family tombs — have become both ubiquitous and disorienting. They can be hard to place in time, for many, because even as the rainy season is supposed to fade (as of this month), the floods have spread.

今年越南持续遭受灾害侵袭,触目惊心的画面随处可见,浑浊浓稠的泥水淹没了房屋、商铺、咖啡种植园、旅店和家族墓地。这些场景让很多人感觉难以分辨时间——因为按照往年规律,本月雨季本应逐渐消退,但如今洪水却仍然在持续蔓延。

00int vietnam flooding 01 ktmb master1050强风将树木吹弯。00int vietnam flooding 02 ktmb master1050台风卡吉克于8月登陆后,倒下的树木阻塞了宁平省的一条道路。

Central Vietnam has been the hardest hit, from around Da Nang last month to more than 300 miles south, near Nha Trang, where the suffering is concentrated now.

越南中部受灾最为严重。上月灾情集中在岘港一带,如今向南蔓延至约500公里外的芽庄附近区域。

But Ho Chi Minh City flooded in August and again in early November. Hanoi was underwater last month, in a two-week period when three typhoons hit Vietnam. The rivers around Hue, a onetime royal capital, rose by 17 feet during a wet stretch of October, carrying muck into carefully restored historic buildings.

此外,胡志明市在8月和11月初先后遭遇洪水;上月越南连续遭遇三场台风袭击,首都河内被洪水淹没;10月多雨期内,昔日的皇城顺化周边河流水位上涨了约5.2米,浑浊的泥水涌入了精心修复的历史建筑。

Frequent wars and hardship, along with a forward-looking culture, have made the Vietnamese people extremely resilient. Standing on tables to stay dry and pushing motorbikes through sludge, few have complained or assigned blame.

频繁的战乱与磨难,加之积极进取的文化氛围,造就了越南民众极强的韧性。他们或站在桌子上躲避洪水,或推着摩托车在淤泥中前行,鲜有人抱怨或指责他人。

00int vietnam flooding 02 vbmj master1050本月早些时候,一辆摩托车在胡志明市被洪水淹没的街道上疾驰而过。00int vietnam flooding 04 vbmj master1050上周在越南达克拉克省和盛乡,人们卸下一名洪水遇难者的棺木。

Donors in drier areas have been quick to mobilize. In Ho Chi Minh City, metro stations became collection sites Sunday for mountains of food and clothing to help those farther north.

降水较少地区的捐赠者迅速行动起来。周日,胡志明市的多个地铁站成了物资收集点,堆积如山的食品和衣物将被送往北部受灾地区。

Online and in private, however, some Vietnamese have begun to criticize the government’s lack of preparedness and slow response. Natural disasters have left nearly 300 people dead or missing in Vietnam and caused more than $2 billion in damage between January and October, according to the national statistics office.

不过,在网络上和私下场合,已有部分越南民众开始批评政府防灾准备不足、救灾响应迟缓。越南国家统计局数据显示,今年1月至10月,自然灾害已造成该国近300人遇难或失踪,经济损失超20亿美元。

Why, many ask, aren’t alarm and evacuation systems providing more help to residents as rivers rise? Why aren’t mitigation systems stronger, guiding water away from population centers?

许多人质疑:为何河流水位上涨时,警报和疏散系统未能给居民提供更多帮助?为何防洪系统不够有力,无法将洪水引离人口密集区?

00int vietnam flooding lvgw master105010月,一名男子在会安的洪水中涉水而行。00int vietnam flooding 03 ktmb master1050本月早些时候,越南顺化市翠山中村一户人家在受淹的家中吃午餐。

Huynh Ngoc Phuong, 51, said the discharge from dozens of reservoirs for irrigation and hydropower seemed to contribute to the flooding.

51岁的黄玉芳(音)表示,数十座灌溉和水力发电水库的泄洪操作,似乎是加剧洪水灾情的原因之一。

To save his family from waters that rose by three feet in 20 minutes on the night of Nov. 19, he said he had to punch a hole in the roof of his home in the central province of Khanh Hoa. One of his children almost drowned. At least three of his neighbors were killed.

11月19日夜间,他家所在的庆和省洪水在20分钟内就上涨了约一米。为了救家人,他不得不砸破自家屋顶。他的一个孩子险些溺水身亡,至少三位邻居在洪灾中丧生。

“The whole village is destroyed — trash, TVs, fridges and mud are everywhere,” he said in an interview Monday after the waters receded but government aid had still yet to arrive. “Everyone was turned upside down. I don’t know where and how to begin to start life again.”

“整个村子都毁了——到处都是垃圾、电视机、冰箱和淤泥,”洪水退去后的周一,黄玉芳在接受采访时说道,而此时政府的救援物资仍未送达。“所有人的生活都被彻底打乱了。我不知道该从哪里、该如何重新开始生活。”

Officials say the government is investing in advanced weather forecasting and alert systems.

官员表示,政府正在投入资金建设先进的天气预报和警报系统。

Climate scientists stress that Vietnam — along with many other nations — needs to move faster to get ahead of rapid change caused by global warming.

气候科学家则强调,越南和其他许多国家一样,必须加快行动,以应对全球变暖引发的快速环境变化。

00int vietnam flooding 03 vbmj master1050越南芽庄市,11月,被洪水淹没的车辆停在泥水中。00int vietnam flooding 06 vbmj master1050进入民宅的洪水。

The old standards, for rain, storms or how high rivers will rise, no longer fit an era when research shows that once-in-a-century extremes can happen far more often than that.

研究表明,如今百年一遇的极端天气出现频率已远超以往,而过去针对降雨量、风暴强度和河流最高水位设定的标准已不再适用。

Geographically, Vietnam is especially vulnerable. A 2024 study identified it as a climate change “hot spot,” showing that warming temperatures adding moisture to the atmosphere and heating up the South China Sea would combine with typhoon patterns to create a vortex of risk.

从地理上看,越南极易受气候变化影响。2024年的一项研究将其列为气候变化“热点地区”,该研究指出,气温升高导致大气湿度增加、南海海水升温,再叠加台风活动规律变化,多重因素交织形成了高风险漩涡。

“We wrote that in 2024, thinking it would be something that would play out over the next few decades, not the next 12 months,” said Benjamin P. Horton, Dean of the School of Energy and Environment at the City University of Hong Kong, and a co-author of the report.

“我们在2024年撰写这份报告时,本以为这些情况会在未来几十年内逐渐显现,而非短短12个月内,”该报告的合著者之一、香港城市大学能源与环境学院院长本杰明·P·霍顿说。

“You’d expect rain anyhow, but it’s becoming more extreme,” he added. “When you have natural variation, when it should be wetter, climate change takes it to the next level.”

“雨季下雨本是常态,但现在的降雨强度越来越极端,”他补充道,“即便是自然气候变化导致降水增多的时期,气候变化也会让情况雪上加霜。”

Mr. Trung, the rescuer with the boat, said he was still trying to process the disasters that no longer seem natural.

驾船救援的陶登公忠表示,面对这些早已超出自然范畴的灾害,他至今仍难以平复心情。

“I didn’t know what to feel,” he said. “I tried to rescue as many as I could. But there were many that I was not able to help.”

“我当时不知所措,”他说,“我拼尽全力去救人,但还是有很多人没能帮到。”

00int vietnam flooding 09 vbmj master105010月,会安街头的积水。

Damien Cave领导时报在越南胡志明市的新分社,报道亚洲及全球世界范围内的权力转移。

Tung Ngo是《纽约时报》记者/研究员,常驻越南河内。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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