Narendra Modi first rolled out the red carpet for Xi Jinping.

纳伦德拉·莫迪率先为习近平铺上了红毯。

He shared a riverfront swing in his home state with the leader of China, the giant neighbor that he hoped his own large nation could emulate in economic prosperity. But as they chatted, Chinese troops got involved in a standoff with Indian troops along their shared border. The flare-up in 2014 was the first of several acts of aggression that would ultimately leave Mr. Modi embarrassed, his economy squeezed by the need to keep tens of thousands of Indian troops on a war footing high in the Himalayas for several years.

他在家乡的河畔与这位中国领导人共荡秋千——他希望自己的国家能效仿中国这个庞大的邻国在经济方面的繁荣发展。但就在他们交谈之际，中印度军队在两国边境发生了对峙。2014年的这次冲突是一系列挑衅的开始，最终让莫迪陷入尴尬，印度经济也因需要连年在喜马拉雅高山上部署数万保持战备状态的军队而备受挤压。

Years later, India’s strongman warmed up to the United States, putting even more of his political credit on the line to rapidly transform a relationship that had been only slowly shedding its Cold War-era frost. Mr. Modi developed such a bonhomie with President Trump in his first term that he broke with protocol to campaign for a second term for him at a stadium-packed event in Houston. Mr. Modi’s confidence in India’s increasing alignment with the United States grew after the Biden administration looked past that partisan play to continue expanding relations with India, a bulwark against China.

数年后，这位印度强权人物开始向美国示好，将更多政治资本押注于迅速转变两国关系——这种关系在冷战时期一直冷淡，此前仅仅是在缓慢解冻。莫迪在特朗普第一任期内与其建立了融洽关系，甚至打破外交礼节，在休斯顿一场座无虚席的集会上为特朗普竞选连任站台。拜登政府无视这种党派倾向，继续扩大与印度的关系，将其视为对抗中国的堡垒，这让莫迪对印度与美国日益紧密的联盟更有信心。

“A.I.” stands for “America and India,” Mr. Modi, who has a penchant for playing with acronyms, told a joint session of Congress last year.

“AI（人工智能）就是‘美国与印度’（America and India）的缩写，”热衷于玩缩写游戏的莫迪去年在国会联席会议上说道。

Then came the very public humiliation of Mr. Modi by Mr. Trump, now in his second term. The president singled India out for a whopping 50 percent tariff, citing its purchases of Russian oil, and called India’s economy “dead.” And the president stirred rancor among Indians by giving the leadership of Pakistan — India’s smaller archrival, which Mr. Trump himself had previously called a state sponsor of terrorism — equal footing as he tried to settle a conflict between the Asian neighbors earlier this year.

然而，如今特朗普在第二任期内让莫迪遭受了公开羞辱。总统以印度购买俄罗斯石油为由对其征收高达50%的关税，还称印度经济“死气沉沉”。今年早些时候，特朗普在试图解决印度、巴基斯坦这两个亚洲邻国的冲突时给予了巴基斯坦平等地位——这个印度的对手比印度要小，而特朗普本人此前曾称它是支持恐怖主义的国家——这激起了印度人的不满。

All that has plunged India into a moment of soul-searching, exposing limitations to its power on the world stage despite its gargantuan size and growing economy. Mr. Modi acknowledged this week that he might pay a personal political price for the trade dispute.

这一切让印度陷入了深刻的反思，尽管它体量庞大且经济不断增长，但在国际舞台上的实力局限性暴露无遗。莫迪本周承认，他可能会因这场贸易争端付出个人政治代价。

There is increased activity toward warming ties with Beijing again, with Mr. Modi scheduled to visit at the end of the month for the first time in seven years. But relations remain strained by the border skirmish, as well as China’s support recently of Pakistan in its military escalation with India. China, for its part, has been wary of New Delhi’s efforts to create a manufacturing alternative to China.

印度与北京重新缓和关系的动作日益增多，莫迪定于本月底访华，这是七年来的首次。但边境冲突以及中国最近在印巴军事升级中对巴方的支持仍让两国关系紧张。中国还一直对印度试图打造替代中国的制造业基地心存警惕。

几年前，印度与中国的边界争端升级为冲突，导致两国领导人之间的关系紧张。

Mr. Modi has also been working the phone. He spoke with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, which is stuck in its own messy showdown with Mr. Trump. He spoke with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and said that both sides vowed to deepen “the India-Russia Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.”

莫迪也一直在积极通话。他与巴西总统卢拉通了话，巴西正与特朗普陷入一场棘手的对峙。他还与俄罗斯总统普京通话，表示双方都承诺深化“印俄特殊且优先的战略伙伴关系”。

But beyond the scramble and defiance, India’s ambition to consolidate its rise as an economic and diplomatic force appears deflated by the sudden uncertainty.

但除了混乱与对抗，印度巩固自身作为经济和外交力量崛起的雄心似乎因突如其来的不确定性而受挫。

Stuck between two superpowers that have shown no hesitation to put India down in moments of friction, there is a growing sense among Indian officials and experts that the country will have to firmly return to its long-tested doctrine of “strategic autonomy.” In plain speak, that means India is on its own and should make do with a patchwork of contradictory and piecemeal ties, and avoid overcommitting to alliances.

夹在两个起冲突时会毫不犹豫打压印度的超级大国之间，印度官员和专家们越来越认为，印度必须坚定地回归其久经考验的“战略自主”原则。通俗地说，这意味着印度要独立自主，在各种矛盾重重、相互冲突的零散关系中努力维持，避免过度承诺结盟。

Nirupama Rao, a former Indian ambassador to Beijing and Washington, said Mr. Trump’s punishing moves had upended “the strategic logic of a very consequential partnership” that had been carefully nurtured over more than two decades. There will be “very pragmatic strategic recalibrations” by New Delhi to protect its interests, she said.

前印度驻北京和华盛顿大使尼鲁帕玛·拉奥表示，特朗普的惩罚性举措颠覆了“20多年来精心培育的、极具重要性的伙伴关系的战略逻辑”。她说，新德里将进行“非常务实的战略调整”以保护自身利益。

India’s growing economy allows its leaders breathing room, but it is still a moment of “deep introspection” for the country.

印度不断增长的经济给了领导人喘息空间，但此刻这个国家仍在经历“深刻内省”的时刻。

“We have to draw our lessons from that and really focus on the national priorities and what we need to do to become strong and more influential,” Ms. Rao said.

“我们必须从中吸取教训，真正专注于国家优先事项，以及我们需要做些什么才能变得强大且更具影响力，”拉奥说。

There is no indication that official talks between New Delhi and Washington have entirely broken down.

目前没有迹象表明新德里与华盛顿之间的官方谈判已完全破裂。

Mr. Trump’s announcement that the additional 25 percent tariff, imposed as a penalty for India’s trade ties to Russia, will go into effect later in the month suggested it could be a crude bargaining tactic to get a more favorable trade deal, and also to pressure Russia to reach a settlement in Ukraine.

特朗普宣布，作为对印度与俄罗斯贸易关系的惩罚，额外25%的关税将在本月晚些时候生效，这表明此举可能是为了争取更有利的贸易协议而采取的粗暴谈判策略，同时向俄罗斯施压以解决乌克兰问题。

莫迪与特朗普2月在白宫会面。本月，特朗普宣布专门对印度加征50%的关税。

Before Mr. Trump put the purchase of Russian oil at the center, Indian officials said progress was being made over his broader concern that trade was out of balance. India had showed willingness to expand its purchases of American energy and defense items.

在特朗普将购买俄罗斯石油作为焦点之前，印度官员表示，针对他更广泛关注的贸易失衡问题，双方已取得进展。印度已表示愿意扩大对美国能源和国防产品的采购。

After multiple rounds of talks, the technical teams from India and the United States appeared to be close to finalizing a first phase of bilateral agreement over the summer. India was even willing to open up, to an extent, its long-protected agriculture market as well, officials have said, something that had been a sticking point in the negotiations.

经过多轮谈判，印美团队似乎有望在今年夏天敲定第一阶段双边协议。官员们称，印度甚至愿意在一定程度上开放其长期保护的农业市场，这在谈判中一直是个关键障碍。

Amitabh Kant, until recently Mr. Modi’s envoy for dealing with the Group of 20 economies, said that Mr. Trump had used strong-arm tactics against other traditional U.S. allies as well, and that India could still arrive at a mutually beneficial trade deal.

直到前不久仍担任莫迪的20国集团事务特使的阿米特巴·坎特表示，特朗普也对其他传统美国盟友使用了强硬手段，印度仍有可能达成互利的贸易协议。

“But even if the trade issues are sorted out, the trust would have been lost forever,” he said.

“但即便贸易问题得到解决，信任也将永远丧失，”他说。

If Mr. Modi’s response to the Chinese aggression is any indication, analysts say, he will try to resolve the breakdown with the United States quietly and without public escalation.

分析人士称，如果莫迪对中国挑衅的回应可以作为参考，他将会试图悄悄解决与美国的僵局，避免公开升级。

In the wake of the deadly Chinese encroachment at the border, Mr. Modi’s response was measured. Even as he leveraged the shared threat from Beijing to expand defense and technology and maritime ties with the United States, his officials were at pains to avoid being used by the United States as a pawn against Beijing. That avoidance of public escalation has made it possible to work toward patching up the relationship since last October, when officials of the two sides started engaging in earnest.

在边境发生致命的中国越界事件后，莫迪的回应较为克制。尽管他利用北京带来的共同威胁扩大了与美国在国防、技术和海事方面的合作，但他的官员仍竭力避免被美国当作对抗北京的棋子。这种对公开升级的回避也使得自去年10月中印两国官员开始认真接触以来的关系修复成为可能。

The chest-thumping against Mr. Trump from Mr. Modi’s shocked support base has been limited, and Mr. Modi has cloaked his defiance as defending his people’s livelihoods.

莫迪的支持者群体在震惊之余对特朗普的激烈抨击有限，莫迪则将自己的反抗包装成捍卫民众生计。

“India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers,” Mr. Modi told a gathering this week, after Mr. Trump’s announcement of the high tariffs. “I know I will have to pay a heavy price personally, and I am ready for it.”

“印度绝不会在农民、渔民和奶农的利益上妥协，”在特朗普宣布高额关税后，莫迪本周在一次集会上表示。“我知道我将不得不付出沉重的个人代价，而我已做好准备。”

The relationship, in fact, had began souring months before Mr. Trump’s focus on Russian oil, leading some officials and analysts to suggest the breakdown in ties has to do with a more personal slight that Mr. Trump has felt.

事实上，早在特朗普聚焦俄罗斯石油之前数月，美印关系就已开始恶化，一些官员和分析人士认为，关系破裂与特朗普感受到的更私人的冒犯有关。

After tensions between India and Pakistan escalated this spring into days of cross-border clashes between the nuclear-armed neighbors, Mr. Trump announced that he had pressured both sides to agree to a cease-fire.

今年春天，印度和巴基斯坦之间的紧张局势升级为这两个持核邻国之间持续数日的跨境冲突，之后特朗普宣布他已向双方施压，促使他们同意停火。

While Pakistani officials welcomed it — and even later said they had put Mr. Trump’s name up for a Nobel Peace Prize — Indian officials contradicted the American president. They pushed hard against Mr. Trump’s assertion, which he has repeated dozens of times since, and aimed to project Mr. Modi’s image as a strong leader who had forced Pakistan through military might to plea for a cease-fire.

巴基斯坦官员对此表示欢迎——甚至后来称他们已提名特朗普获得诺贝尔和平奖——但印度官员却反驳了这位美国总统。他们坚决反对特朗普的说法（他此后重复了该说法数十次），旨在塑造莫迪作为强硬领导人的形象，称是他通过军事力量迫使巴基斯坦请求停火。

“What we now have is a U.S. president who is a very egotistical person with the highly personalized style of leadership and an Indian prime minister who is also an egotistical person with a highly personalized style of leadership,” said Sanjaya Baru, an author and former adviser to Mr. Modi’s predecessor. “When you have two leaders who have converted what is essentially a relationship between nations into a relationship between individual leaders, I think this is the price that we probably are paying.”

“我们现在面临的情况是，美国总统是一个极度自负的人，有高度个性化的领导风格，而印度总理同样是一个极度自负的人，也有高度个性化的领导风格，”作家与前莫迪顾问桑贾亚·巴鲁说。“当两位领导人将本质上的国家间关系转化为个人之间的关系时，我认为这可能就是我们正在付出的代价。”