Behind closed doors in Beijing this week, China’s top officials are meeting to refine a plan to secure its strength in a turbulent world. But two great questions hang over the nation’s future, even if no one at the meeting dares raise it: How long will Xi Jinping rule, and who will replace him when he is gone?

本周，在北京的闭门会议上，中国最高领导层正在商讨完善一项计划，以确保在动荡世界中巩固国家实力。但有两个重大问题笼罩在这个国家的未来之上，即使在会议上没有人敢公开提出：习近平将执政多久？当他卸任之后，谁来接班？

Mr. Xi has led China for 13 years, amassing dominance to a degree unseen since Mao Zedong. He has shown no sign of wanting to step down. Yet his longevity at the top could, if mismanaged, sow the seeds of political turbulence: He has neither an heir apparent nor a clear timetable for designating one.

习近平已经领导中国13年，集权程度为自毛泽东以来所未见。他毫无下台的迹象。但如果处理不当，他长期执政的局面可能会埋下政治动荡的种子：他既没有明确的接班人，也没有指定继任的明确时间表。

With each year that he stays in office, uncertainty deepens about who would step in if, say, his health failed, and whether the new leader would stick to or soften Mr. Xi’s hard-line course.

习近平每在位一年，关于如果他因健康等原因无法继续执政时谁将接班的不确定性就更深一分。同时，也无人能确定接班人是会延续他的强硬路线，还是会选择有所缓和。

Mr. Xi faces a dilemma familiar to long-serving autocrats. Naming a successor risks creating a rival center of power and weakening his grip, but failing to settle on a leader-in-waiting could jeopardize his legacy and sow rifts in China’s political elite. And at 72, Mr. Xi will likely have to search for a potential heir among much younger officials, who must still prove themselves and win his trust.

习近平正面临着长期执政的专制统治者普遍遭遇的两难处境：一旦指定接班人，可能会形成与他竞争的权力中心，削弱他的控制力；但如果迟迟不确定接班人，又可能危及他的政治遗产，并在中共高层内部埋下分裂的隐患。现年72岁的习近平可能不得不在更年轻的一代官员中物色潜在继任者——这些人不仅需要证明自己的能力，还必须赢得他的信任。

If Mr. Xi eventually chooses a successor, loyalty to him and his agenda will almost surely be a paramount requirement. He has said that the Soviet Union made a fatal mistake by picking the reformer Mikhail Gorbachev, who oversaw its dissolution. On Friday, Mr. Xi made his intolerance for any disloyalty clear when the military announced that it had expelled nine senior officers, who face prosecution on charges of corruption and abuse of power.

如果习近平最终选定接班人，对他本人及其施政路线的忠诚几乎肯定会是首要标准。他曾表示，苏联犯下的致命错误之一，就是选择了推行改革的戈尔巴乔夫，最终导致国家解体。上周五，习近平也用行动表明了他对“不忠”绝不容忍的态度——军方宣布开除九名高级军官，他们因腐败和滥用职权而面临起诉。

“Xi almost surely realizes the importance of succession, but he also realizes that it’s incredibly difficult to signal a successor without undermining his own power,” said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. “The immediate political and economic crises that he faces could end up continually outweighing the priority of getting around to executing a succession plan.”

“习近平肯定明白接班安排的重要性，但他同样清楚，在不削弱自身权力的情况下指明继任者是极其困难的，”亚洲协会政策研究院中国分析中心研究员牛犇(Neil Thomas)表示。“他当前面临的各种政治与经济危机，可能会不断压倒安排接班的优先级。”

Speculation about Mr. Xi’s future is highly sensitive and censored in China, and only a handful of officials may be privy to his thinking about the issue. Foreign diplomats, experts and investors will be looking for clues from the four-day meeting of the Communist Party’s Central Committee that started on Monday, bringing together hundreds of senior officials.

关于习近平未来的猜测在中国极为敏感，并受到严格审查，真正了解他对此问题想法的恐怕只有极少数高层官员。与此同时，外国外交官、专家和投资者正密切关注这场于周一开幕、为期四天、汇集了数百名高级官员的二十届四中全会，希望从中捕捉到蛛丝马迹。

中国全国人民代表大会会议于3月召开，这一立法机构由共产党控制。本周，中共中央委员会正在举行闭门会议。

The meeting, usually held behind closed doors in the specially built Jingxi Hotel in Beijing, is expected to approve a plan for China’s development over the next five years. Mr. Xi has made securing a global lead in technological innovation and advanced manufacturing a priority, and that goal is likely to feature heavily. He and his officials have expressed confidence that their approach can prevail over President Trump’s tariffs and export controls.

该会议通常在北京专门建造的京西宾馆闭门举行，预计将审议并通过未来五年的国家发展规划。习近平已将推动中国在科技创新和先进制造领域取得全球领先地位作为核心目标，这一方向很可能在会议中被重点强调。他和官员们多次表示，有信心通过自身的发展战略来应对并克服特朗普的关税和出口管制。

“At the heart of strategic rivalry among the great powers is a contest for comprehensive strength,” senior Chinese lawmakers said in a report that they issued last month on the proposed plan. “Only by vigorously upgrading our own economic power, scientific and technological strength, and overall national power can we win the strategic initiative.”

“中国与其他大国之间的战略竞争，其核心是一场综合实力的较量，”中国高级立法者在上个月发布的有关该规划的报告中表示。“只有大力提升自身的经济实力、科技实力和综合国力，才能赢得战略主动权。”

In theory, the meeting this week could offer a window into China’s next generation of leaders, if Mr. Xi chooses to elevate younger officials into more prominent roles. But many analysts expect him to delay any major moves, at least until after his likely fourth five-year term begins in 2027, and perhaps well beyond that.

从理论上讲，如果习近平决定让更年轻的官员担任更重要职务，本周的会议可能会成为外界观察中国下一代领导层的一个窗口。但许多分析人士预计，他很可能会推迟重大的接班人安排，至少会等到2027年他很可能将会开启的第四个五年任期之后，甚至可能更久。

“Then I think it has to start looming larger, if not in his own mind, then in the people around him,” said Jonathan Czin, a researcher on Chinese politics at the Brookings Institution who has written about Mr. Xi’s succession scenarios and the Central Committee meeting. “Even if the people in his immediate orbit don’t start jockeying for position for themselves, they’re going to be jockeying on behalf of their own protégés.”

“那么，我认为这个问题应该已逐渐变得紧迫起来——如果不是在习近平自己心中，那至少是在他身边的人心中，”布鲁金斯学会中国政治研究员乔纳森·齐恩说。他曾撰文分析习近平的接班可能方案及中央委员会会议。“即使习近平的亲信不会为了自己争夺位置，他们也会为了自己提携的门徒而角逐。”

Mr. Xi has seen firsthand how succession struggles can shake the Communist Party. His father, a senior official, was ousted by Mao. As a local official during the 1989 pro-democracy protests, Mr. Xi witnessed how divisions at the top helped tip China into upheaval; ultimately, Deng Xiaoping purged the party’s general secretary, Zhao Ziyang, and installed a new heir apparent, Jiang Zemin.

习近平亲眼见证过接班斗争如何动摇共产党政权。他担任高级官员的父亲曾被毛泽东罢黜。1989年民主抗议期间，作为地方官员的习近平目睹了高层的分裂如何加剧了中国的动荡；最终，邓小平清洗了党总书记赵紫阳，扶持了新的接班人江泽民。

“Especially as someone who spends so much time studying the lessons of China’s dynastic cycles and the history of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Xi knows that the succession is a major issue he must think through,” said Christopher K. Johnson, the president of China Strategies Group, a consulting firm, who previously worked as a U.S. intelligence official focused on China.

“习近平花费了大量时间研究中国历代王朝兴衰的教训以及苏联共产党的历史，他深知接班问题是必须深思熟虑的重大课题，”咨询公司中国策略集团的总裁、曾任美国情报官员并专注中国事务的克里斯托弗·约翰逊说。

For now, Mr. Xi seems convinced that China’s ascendancy depends on his continued stewardship. He bulldozed past the example of orderly retirement set by his predecessor, Hu Jintao, and abolished the presidency’s two-term limit in 2018, enabling Mr. Xi to stay in office indefinitely as head of the party, the state and the military.

目前，习近平似乎坚信中国的崛起依赖于他持续的领导。他打破了前任胡锦涛所树立的有序退休范例，并于2018年废除了国家主席的任期限制，使他自己能够无限期地担任党、国家和军队的最高领导人。

But each year that Mr. Xi stays in power, it becomes harder to find an heir who is both young enough to rule for decades and seasoned enough to command authority in his shadow.

但随着习近平每多执政一年，找到既足够年轻、足以执政数十年，又足够资深、能在他的阴影之下掌握权威的接班人，就变得愈发困难。

Mr. Xi has packed the Politburo Standing Committee — the seven-member body at the apex of party power — with longtime allies. They are in their 60s or older, likely too old to be plausible heirs several years from now, experts said. Mr. Xi himself was 54 when he joined the Standing Committee in 2007, a promotion that underlined his status as a favorite to become the next leader.

政治局常委会是由七人组成的党内最高权力机构，习近平将大部分成员安排为自己的长期盟友。专家表示，这些人大多年龄在60岁及以上，几年后很可能已经太老，难以成为合理的接班人。习近平2007年进入常委会时年仅54岁，那次晋升凸显了他被视为下一任领导人的优势地位。

北京一家以中国军队为主题的博物馆。习近平似乎坚信，中国的崛起离不开他持续的领导。

Even officials poised to be elevated to central leadership at the next Communist Party congress, in 2027, are probably too advanced in age to succeed Mr. Xi, said Victor Shih, a professor at the University of California San Diego who studies elite politics in China.

加州大学圣地亚哥分校研究中国精英政治的教授史宗瀚(Victor Shih)表示，即便是在2027年中共下一次全国代表大会上有望晋升中央领导层的官员，年龄也可能过于偏大，不适合接替习近平。

With Mr. Xi likely to serve another term or even longer, his successor could prove to be an official born in the 1970s, likely now working in a provincial administration or an agency of the central government. The party has been promoting some younger officials who fit that profile, said Wang Hsin-hsien, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taiwan who studies the Communist Party.

鉴于习近平很可能再执政一届甚至更久，他的接班人很可能是一位出生于1970年代的官员，目前多半在省级政府或中央机关工作。台湾政治大学研究中国共产党的王信贤教授表示，中共近年来一直在提拔符合这一特征的年轻官员。

But Mr. Xi also appears to be worried about officials who have not been tested by hardship or responsibility. He has warned that seemingly minor shortcomings in officials can become serious threats in moments of crisis — or, as he has put it, “A small crack can become a massive collapse” in a dam wall.

但习近平似乎也对那些未经过艰难考验或未承担过重要责任的官员感到担忧。他曾警告说，官员身上看似微不足道的缺点，在危机时刻可能演变成严重威胁——正如他所说，会导致“小管涌沦为大塌方”。

”Xi is highly distrustful of others, especially those officials who have only an indirect relationship with him,” Professor Wang said. “As he grows older and has fewer connections to the generation of his possible successors, this factor will become more important.”

“习近平对他人，尤其是那些与他没有直接接触过的官员，抱有极大的不信任，”王信贤表示。“随着他衰老，与可能接班人的那一代人联系减少，这一因素将变得更加重要。”

In the years ahead, the upper ranks of the party may grow more fluid as Mr. Xi tests and discards potential recruits for leadership, experts said. Behind the scenes, officials within his circle may jockey more intensely for influence and political survival.

专家指出，未来几年，随着习近平对潜在领导人选的考察与淘汰，党内高层的流动性可能会增强。在幕后，习近平亲信圈内的官员可能为争夺影响力与政治生存空间展开更激烈的角逐。

“This will make the succession process more fragmented, because he can’t possibly just have one designated successor,” Professor Shih said. “It has to be a collective to choose from, and that probably also means they will have low-grade power struggles with each other.”

“这将使接班过程更加分散，因为他不可能只有一个明确指定的接班人，”史宗瀚说。“接班人选必须从一群人中选拔，这很可能意味着他们之间会发生较低程度的权力斗争。”