The procession of Western leaders flocking to Beijing in recent weeks has been impressive. Last month, Mark Carney went, the first Canadian leader to visit in almost a decade. He signed a strategic partnership with a country that has imprisoned Canadian nationals and was accused of meddling in Canada’s elections.

近期西方领导人纷纷前往北京的景象令人瞩目。上个月，马克·卡尼出访中国，成为近十年来首位访华的加拿大领导人。他与一个关押着加拿大公民、被指干预加拿大选举的国家签署了战略伙伴关系协议。

Next up was Keir Starmer, reversing years of frosty relations in the first visit by a British leader since 2018. This week, it’s the German chancellor’s turn. More than a million German jobs depend on exports to China.

紧随其后的是基尔·斯塔默，这是2018年以来英国领导人首次访华，标志着多年来两国冷淡关系的逆转。本周轮到德国总理登场。超过100万个德国就业岗位依赖对华出口。

Not so long ago, Western countries talked about diversifying away from China. Now the opposite is happening. I called my colleague David Pierson, who covers China, to understand why.

就在不久前，西方国家还在谈论要减少对中国的依赖，实现多元化布局。如今情况却正好相反。我向报道中国事务的同事戴维·皮尔森请教，以便了解个中缘由。

No longer distancing from China

不再与中国保持距离

David, Western leaders have always flocked to China with their C.E.O.s. What’s different about the current stream of visitors?

戴维，西方领导人过去也常常带着本国企业高管涌向中国。那么，当前这波访问潮有何不同？

It’s the context, right? You’ve seen tensions grow between the United States and Europe. Not long ago, Western leaders were looking for ways to “de-risk,” or distance themselves from China to reduce their countries’ reliance on its supply chains and market. Now, they are moving back toward China again — because they’re de-risking from a more unreliable United States.

关键在于背景，对吧？大家可以看到，美国与欧洲之间的紧张关系正在加剧。不久前，西方国家还在想方设法寻求“去风险”，也就是与中国保持距离，以减少本国对其供应链和市场的依赖。而现在，他们又重新向中国靠拢——因为他们正在针对一个更加不可靠的美国进行“去风险”。

But how reliable a partner is China? There’s a reason people wanted to diversify away from China, right?

但中国作为伙伴究竟有多可靠？人们当初想要减少对中国依赖是有原因的，对吧？

That’s the thing. As I wrote recently, China hasn’t changed. It still threatens to close its markets to imports or restrict the sale of valuable exports like critical minerals when it’s unhappy with another country. And China has done nothing to pull back its economic and diplomatic support for Russia and its war in Ukraine despite all the protestations from Europe.

问题就在这里。正如我最近写的，中国并没有改变。当它对他国不满时，仍然会威胁关闭市场、限制进口，或者限制关键矿产等重要出口商品的销售。而且，尽管欧洲一再抗议，中国并未撤回在经济和外交层面上对俄罗斯及其在乌克兰的战争的支持。

The bottom line is, China doesn’t actually need to offer incentives to these Western leaders. It’s just an alternative to the U.S. at a time when countries are scrambling to rebalance.

归根结底，中国其实并不需要向这些西方领导人提供什么好处。在各国匆忙重新平衡对外关系之际，它只是美国之外的一个替代选择。

What leverage do Western countries have left on things they care about? Like China dumping huge amounts of products on global markets?

在西方国家关心的问题上，比如中国向全球市场大量倾销产品，他们还有什么筹码吗？

Honestly, not a lot. Britain and Canada do not export many valuable things to China. They just don’t have the same leverage that they used to over China. Germany is in a very, very tough spot. Chancellor Friedrich Merz is going over there to preserve the business that still exists for German companies, but the reality is, there is very little he can do to slow Chinese firms from replacing German ones in the global market

说实话，不多了。英国和加拿大并没有向中国出口很多有价值的商品。他们已经没有像过去那样能对中国施压的影响力了。德国的处境非常、非常艰难。总理弗里德里希·默茨此行是为了保住德国企业目前尚存的业务，但现实是，他几乎无力阻止中国企业在全球市场上取代德国企业。

Meanwhile, China has shown that it can go toe to toe with the most powerful country in the world. President Trump took the fight to China, and President Xi Jinping stood up to him and turned it around by using its trump card (no pun intended!): its monopoly over the supply and processing of rare earth minerals that are used in everything from computer chips and batteries to wind turbines and missiles. So China is emboldened on the world stage. Say what you will about Xi Jinping, he never underestimates his leverage. Many analysts think that he’s played this quite well.

与此同时，中国已经证明了自己能与世界上最强大的国家一较高下。特朗普总统曾主动向中国发起挑战，而习近平主席顶住了压力，并打出自己的王牌来扭转局势：那就是中国在稀土供应和加工方面的垄断地位。稀土被广泛应用于从芯片、电池到风力涡轮机和导弹等各种产品之中。因此，中国在世界舞台上更有底气了。无论你怎么评价习近平，他从不低估自己的筹码的威力。许多分析人士认为，他在这方面的表现相当出色。

So China looks strong. But China also has a lot of problems at home. How do these two things interact?

所以中国看起来很强大。但中国国内也有很多问题。这两方面是如何相互作用的？

It’s a split screen. On foreign policy, China is in a pretty solid position. But domestically, they’re on very shaky ground. They’ve been dealing with a very sluggish economy, because of a collapsing property market. And there’s just no easy way out of it. And it’s having repercussions for the rest of the world, because the only thing that’s working for China right now economically is exports. They’re making all this stuff, but they don’t have enough money at home to buy it, and so they’re just dumping it on the rest the world.

这就像分屏画面。一方面，在外交政策上，中国处于相当稳固的位置；但在国内，他们的处境非常不稳。由于房地产市场崩溃，他们一直在应对极度低迷的经济。而且这个问题没有简单的解决之道。这种局面也正在对世界其他地区产生影响，因为目前中国经济中唯一运转良好的就是出口。他们生产了大量商品，但国内缺乏足够的消费能力来吸收这些产品，于是只能把它们倾销到全球市场。

The other thing is that they’ve had this far-reaching purge in the military hierarchy. All these generals have just been kicked out, and it’s unclear what this means for China’s ability to go to war. Is its ability to take Taiwan delayed by years — or somehow accelerated by getting rid of corrupt generals? It’s just so difficult to look into elite Chinese politics, and so we’re just kind of left guessing what that means.

另一个问题是军队高层的大规模清洗。许多将领被撤职，目前还不清楚这对中国的作战能力有什么影响。这会让中国对台军事行动推迟数年，还是因为清除了腐败将领反而加速？要窥探中国的高层政治实在太过困难，因此外界只能揣测这些变动的真实影响。

Where does all this lead? Are these deals with China the beginning of a longer-term shift away from U.S. dominance?

这一切最终会走向哪里？与中国达成的这些协议，是否标志着一个长期削弱美国主导地位的转折点？

Short-term, it’s more symbolic than real because, if you actually look at the meetings, there’s not that much substance. Britain allowing China to open an embassy in London? Not exactly a big deal. I mean, you could argue that there’s a security risk, but Britain’s own security service said it can be managed. On Canada, yes, they lowered the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, but there’s still a quota, and it’s a tiny quota.

短期来看，这更多是象征意义而非实质性的。因为如果你仔细分析这些会晤，就会发现其实并没有多少实质性成果。英国允许中国在伦敦建新的大使馆？这并非什么重大举措。你当然可以说存在安全风险，但英国自己的情报机构表示风险是可以管控的。再看加拿大，虽然降低了中国电动车的关税，但仍设有配额限制，且配额非常小。

The symbolism alone is of course a huge win for China. They can turn around to their people and say: “Look, we’re doing great. You get all these countries coming and paying their respects to us.” This helps to paper over domestic problems.

仅就象征意义而言，这无疑是中国的一大胜利。他们可以告诉国内民众：‘看，我们做得很好，这么多国家都来向我们示好。’这有助于掩盖国内问题。

Long-term, it’s harder to say. One thing is clear: We’ve seen an erosion of American legitimacy in the last year. Everyone now has doubts about America as a reliable partner. You’ve seen how things just turn on a dime, depending on who enters the White House now.

从长期来看，就更难判断了。有一点是明确的：过去一年里，美国的公信力在持续下降。如今，所有人都对美国是否是一个可靠的伙伴产生了怀疑。我们也看到了，这一切是可以随时转向的，取决于入主白宫的是谁。

Whether China can fill that vacuum in bigger ways is impossible to know. They’re trying very hard, but it’s unclear if they’re doing it for anything other than their own interests.

至于中国是否能够在更大的层面填补这个空缺，目前无法判断。他们确实在非常努力地尝试，但尚不清楚这种努力除了自身利益外是否还有其他考量。