2025年3月6日
For months, China has promised to help its people spend more to turn the economy around, while taking few concrete measures.
几个月来,中国政府为了使经济有起色,一直承诺要促进老百姓多消费,但少有具体措施。
On Wednesday, the country’s top leaders pledged to “vigorously” boost spending but once again offered limited details and little money to back it up.
周三,中国的最高领导层再次承诺“大力提振消费”,但还是没有提供多少具体细节,也没有表示会拿出多少资金支持。
The government’s budget and annual work report, released on the most important day in China’s political calendar, during the meeting in Beijing called the National People’s Congress, set an optimistic target of 5 percent growth but gave scant indication of how the economy would get there without another surge in exports this year. China’s reliance on trade for growth faces fresh challenges as the United States and many other countries have raised tariffs on Chinese goods.
政府的预算和年度工作报告发布于全国人民代表大会在北京召开之日,这是中国政治日历上最重要的一天,报告为今年的经济设定了5%的乐观增长目标,但几乎没有提到今年如果不让出口再次激增的话,要如何实现这一目标。随着美国和许多其他国家对中国商品加征关税,中国依赖贸易实现经济增长的做法已面临新的挑战。
“The headwinds remain very strong on growth: The property market hasn’t stabilized and consumer confidence remains low,” said Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS. “Now we have a fresh wave of tariffs and who knows what else will come. Policy needs to do the heavy lifting.”
“经济增长的阻力仍然非常大:房地产市场尚未稳定下来,消费者信心仍停留在低水平,”瑞银的首席中国经济学家汪涛说。“现在又来了新一轮的关税,谁知道接下来会发生什么。政策需要发挥重要作用。”
Here are some key takeaways from China’s budget — and what it means for one of the world’s biggest economies.
以下是中国政府工作报告的一些要点,以及这个预算对于世界最大经济体之一意味着什么。
Beijing to consumers: Spend, spend, spend!
政府发给消费者的信息:消费!消费!消费!
China is one of the few places in the world with deflation, an economic condition in which many prices are falling. That might sound appealing to Americans struggling with hefty bills for groceries and other expenses, but it can be a crippling problem: Many companies and households have seen their earnings shrink in recent years. Deflation also raises the cost of debt payments and encourages consumers to put off purchases on the expectation of prices being lower in the future.
中国是世界上少数几个存在通货紧缩问题的地方之一,通货紧缩指的是经济中出现了许多物价正在下降的情况。通货紧缩对那些正在艰难应对日用品和其他开支的美国人来说,可能听起来有吸引力,但能给经济带来严重问题:近年来,中国的许多公司和家庭的收入都在缩水。通货紧缩还提高了偿还债务的成本,并鼓励消费者推迟购物,因为他们预期未来的价格会更低。
China’s leadership acknowledged this on Wednesday, when it set its target for consumer inflation at 2 percent, the lowest rate in two decades. To reverse falling prices and achieve that target, it needs to get households to feel richer.
中国的领导层周三承认了这个问题,他们将居民消费价格涨幅设在了2%,这是20年来的最低目标。为扭转物价下跌的趋势,实现这个通胀目标,政府需要让家庭觉得更有钱。
One way is to expand the country’s social safety net. Officials said that they would raise minimum basic old age pensions by $2.75 per person each month, a token amount that experts said was too modest. They promised child care subsidies and more services for the elderly, two major burdens for households, without giving any details. There was also a mention of improving wages.
一个办法是扩大国家的社会保障网。官员们说,将把城乡居民基础养老金最低标准提高20元,但专家们认为这是个过低的象征性数字。官员们承诺发放育儿补贴,为老年人提供更多服务,但没有给出任何细节,育儿和养老是家庭的两个主要负担。他们还提出要提高工资。
The government wants to entice people to buy things like home appliances and smartphones, go to the movies and eat out. Some cities, like Shanghai, have handed out vouchers for discounts as high as 30 percent for catering, tourism and sports.
政府想吸引老百姓购买家用电器和智能手机等物品,让他们去看电影、到饭馆吃饭。一些城市(比如上海)已向居民发放了餐饮、旅游、体育运动等方面的优惠券,最高打折30%。
But China’s leaders did not announce nationwide vouchers on Wednesday. Instead, they focused on more subsidies for consumers who want to trade in their old cars, appliances and even rice cookers.
但中国领导人周三没有宣布全国性的优惠券,而是把注意力集中在为想用以旧换新方式购买汽车、电器(甚至电饭煲)的消费者提供更多的补贴。
The government also targeted the creation of 12 million urban jobs to keep unemployment around 5.5 percent.
政府还打算创造1200万个城镇就业岗位,把城镇失业率保持在5.5%左右。
More companies like DeepSeek, please.
政府希望有更多像DeepSeek这样的公司。
The blistering success of the homegrown artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek has delivered a dose of national pride and awakened the government to the power of its private sector. China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, signaled last month a pause in his yearslong crackdown on the tech sector when he met with Jack Ma, the country’s most prominent entrepreneur who had been sidelined for four years.
本土人工智能初创公司DeepSeek取得的巨大成功激发了中国人的民族自豪感,也唤醒了政府对民营企业能力的重视。上个月,中国最高领导人习近平与马云等中国企业家见了面,发出信号表示将暂停对科技行业的多年打压。马云是中国最著名的企业家,但四年来一直遭到边缘化。
On Wednesday, the government said it would prioritize tech innovation.
政府在周三表示将重点支持科技创新。
The push is part of Mr. Xi’s ambition to make China technologically self-sufficient, rivaling the United States.
这是实现习近平让中国在技术上自给自足、与美国一较高下的雄心壮志的一部分。
It also part of a broader realization that China’s tech sector is a critical factor in Beijing’s drive to bolster consumption and create more jobs. Days after Mr. Xi met with Mr. Ma and other corporate chieftains, telling them to “help promote common prosperity,” two of the country’s biggest employers, the delivery companies Meituan and JD.com, announced that they would pay social security benefits to many of their riders.
这也是政府更广泛意识的一部分,政府已认识到,中国的科技行业是推动消费和创造更多就业机会的关键因素。习近平几天前与马云等民营企业负责人见面时要求他们“先富促共富”。几天后,中国两家最大的雇主——外卖公司美团和京东宣布,将逐步为公司的全职外卖骑手缴纳社会保险。
China’s government has less money to go around.
中国政府能支出的资金越来越少。
For most of the past four decades, China’s national and local governments rode an ever-rising tide of tax revenue. The money helped them pay for an extensive bullet train network, enormous industrial subsidies and a rapid military buildup.
在过去40年的大部分时间里,中国的中央政府和地方政府曾一直受益于不断增长的税收收入。这些钱帮助它们支付了建设大范围高铁网络、提供巨额工业补贴,以及快速提高军事力量的费用。
Those days are over. Deflation is gnawing at the government’s financial base and beginning to erode its ability to undertake big projects.
那些日子已经一去不复返。通货紧缩正在蚕食政府的财政基础,开始削弱开展大型项目的能力。
The Ministry of Finance’s budget included a series of disclosures showing that tax revenue last year was considerably weaker than expected. The result is that China’s budget deficit is widening.
财政部报告给出的一系列数字显示,政府去年的税收收入比预期低了不少,其结果是中国的预算赤字正在扩大。
The biggest money spinner for the national government is the value-added tax, a kind of sales tax that is collected on practically every transaction in China. Revenue from that tax unexpectedly tumbled 3.9 percent last year, almost 8 percent less than the ministry had planned, according to the budget.
政府收入的第一大税种是增值税,这是一种对中国几乎每笔买卖都征收的销售税。财政部的数据显示,去年的增值税收入与上年相比意外地下降了3.9%,几乎比财政部的预计低了8%。
The ministry nonetheless predicted that revenue from the value-added tax would recover this year, growing 3.8 percent.
尽管如此,财政部预计今年的增值税收入会有所增长,长幅为3.8%。