The trade war this year between China and the United States started with a bang, a fast-and-furious escalation of tariffs to astronomical levels. In the ensuing months, both countries showed a willingness to pull back and not shut down trade between the world’s largest economies.

今年中美贸易战轰轰烈烈地拉开序幕，关税以迅雷不及掩耳之势飙升至天文数字。在随后的几个月里，双方都表现出让步的意愿，并未切断这两个世界最大经济体之间的贸易往来。

But they have made little discernible progress in resolving their differences on trade. On Monday, after a fourth round of talks, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the two sides would talk about trade again in about a month.

但在解决贸易分歧方面，双方几乎没有取得明显进展。周一，经过第四轮谈判后，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，双方将在约一个月后再次就贸易问题展开磋商。

While other countries have scrambled to meet President Trump’s demands to strike deals for reduced tariffs, China has kept to its own timetable. The trade impasse with the United States has exacted a price — mainly from a sharp drop-off in exports to America. Here is how Beijing is trying to weather the standoff while doing what it can to avoid blinking first.

当其他国家为达成关税减免协议争相满足特朗普总统提出的要求时，中国却始终坚持自己的时间表。与美国的贸易僵局已造成损失——主要体现在中国对美出口大幅下滑。应对这场僵局的同时如何尽可能避免先作出让步？以下是北京方面的一些策略。

黑龙江，把玉米装上半挂卡车。中国对美国出口今年下降了15%，但其整体出口仍在飙升。

China’s exports to the U.S. plunge, but surge everywhere else.

中国对美出口锐减，但对其他地区出口激增。

China’s exports to the United States are down about 15 percent so far this year. But that has not slowed its export machine.

今年以来，中国对美出口同比下降约15%。但这并未拖累其整体出口增速。

The country’s trade surplus with the world came within a whisker of $1 trillion last year, as its exports exceeded its imports on a scale seldom seen except around the time of the two world wars. Despite U.S. tariffs, this year’s surplus for China is on track to be even bigger.

去年，中国的全球贸易顺差逼近万亿美元大关，其出口额超过进口额的规模之大，除两次世界大战前后外实属罕见。尽管面临美国关税压力，中国今年的贸易顺差仍有望进一步扩大。

This year, through August, China’s trade surplus widened to $785.8 billion from $612.6 billion a year ago. Its surplus with countries across Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe has climbed rapidly. China’s electric vehicle brands are storming new markets in Europe and Southeast Asia, while sales of heavily discounted Chinese solar panels are booming in Africa.

今年截至8月，中国贸易顺差从去年同期的6126亿美元扩大至7858亿美元。中国对东南亚、非洲、拉丁美洲及欧洲各国的顺差均大幅增长：中国电动汽车品牌正抢占欧洲和东南亚新市场，大幅降价的中国太阳能电池板在非洲的销量也在激增。

Some of the excess that China exports to other countries winds up in the United States, although the Trump administration is vowing to crack down on that trade.

中国出口到其他国家的部分过剩商品，最终仍会流入美国，尽管特朗普政府誓言要打击这类贸易。

China has managed to avert the steepest tariffs threatened by President Trump — up to 145 percent at one point. But goods from China’s manufacturers are still subject to a minimum tax of 30 percent in addition to other duties, pushing the actual rate on many Chinese imports significantly higher.

中国成功避开了特朗普总统威胁实施的最高关税——税率一度高达145%。但中国制造的商品仍需缴纳至少30%的最低关税以及其他税费，这使得许多中国输美商品的实际税负大幅提高。

For China, its strategy was years in the making. It has invested in building infrastructure across the developing world for over a decade. The money has helped China establish economic ties and exert influence in regions that are now becoming increasingly crucial as it seeks to redirect trade from the United States to the rest of the world.

对中国而言，其策略源于历时数年的布局。十多年来，中国一直在发展中国家投资基础设施建设。这些投入帮助中国在相关地区建立经济联系并施加影响力，而如今，随着中国寻求将贸易从美国转向世界其他地区，这些地区正变得愈发关键。

By continuing to sell more goods overseas, China has been able to keep its economy growing. That is attributable not just to the exports themselves, but sizable investments in new factories to manufacture goods to sell abroad.

通过持续扩大对外出口，中国得以维持经济增长。这不仅得益于出口本身，还得益于对新建工厂的大额投资——这些工厂专门生产用于出口的商品。

广州一家小工厂，正在组装的餐厅用具。去年中国的贸易顺差接近1万亿美元。

China tries to keep a lid on its economic weakness at home.

中国试图抑制国内经济疲软的态势。

China’s export surge is masking weakness in other parts of its economy. A persistent real estate downturn has wrecked havoc on the economy. Consumers are spending less, while joblessness among young people remains a major problem. China is also dealing with a stubborn deflationary spiral, spurred by overproduction in key industries and price wars. Policymakers have taken steps to shore up its domestic economy, but so far results are mixed.

中国的出口激增正在掩盖其经济其他领域的疲软。房地产市场的持续低迷已对经济造成严重破坏。消费者支出减少，青年失业问题依然严峻。中国还在应对由关键行业产能过剩和价格战引发的顽固螺旋式通缩。尽管政策制定者已采取措施提振国内经济，但成效不一。

While that might ratchet up the pressure to cave to U.S. demands, China’s ability to tightly control the media and the internet has allowed it to prevent unfettered conversation about the toll inflicted by the trade war.

尽管这可能加剧向美国让步的压力，但中国通过严格控制媒体和互联网，成功避免了关于贸易战代价的自由讨论。

On Monday, China announced that retail spending and factory output in August fell short of economists’ expectations, in a sign that economic activity was slowing sharply. The sluggishness also suggests that Beijing’s efforts to stimulate the economy with low interest rates, easing home buying rules and subsidies for consumer products may not be enough if it wants to hit its annual economic growth target of 5 percent.

周一公布的数据显示，中国8月零售额和工业产出均低于经济学家预期，表明经济活动正在急剧放缓。这种疲软态势也意味着，若想实现5%的年度经济增长目标，北京的低利率、放宽购房政策和发放消费补贴等刺激措施可能仍显不足。

China finds points of leverage.

中国寻找谈判筹码。

In any negotiation, both parties need to understand what is at stake. For China, the United States remains the biggest and most prosperous consumer market. Its companies risk losing customers in America because of the tariffs.

在任何谈判中，双方都需明确自身利益所在。对中国而言，美国仍是最大、最繁荣的消费市场，中国企业因关税面临失去美国客户的风险。

But over the last few months, China has also made clear what the United States risks by playing hardball with Beijing. In April, shortly after Mr. Trump imposed heavy tariffs on China, China retaliated by suspending exports of rare earth metals and magnets to the United States.

但过去几个月，中国也明确展示了美国对华强硬可能付出的代价。今年4月，特朗普政府对中国加征高额关税后不久，中国立即采取反制措施，暂停向美国出口稀土金属和磁铁。

The magnets are essential for assembling everything from cars and drones to manufacturing robots and missiles. China produces about 80 percent of the world’s rare earth magnets and refines almost 100 percent of the critical minerals that make the magnets more resistant to heat.

这些磁铁是汽车、无人机、工业机器人和导弹等产品的关键材料。中国生产全球约80%的稀土磁铁，可增强磁铁耐热性的关键矿物也几乎100%由中国精炼。

In June, China agreed to resume shipments of rare earths as part of trade negotiations, but some American companies continue to have trouble obtaining adequate supplies. European manufacturers have also had trouble securing enough rare earth magnets as Beijing has pressed for the European Union to abandon tariffs on electric cars from China. Beijing’s message has been delivered: China has significant leverage, too, and is not afraid to use it.

6月，作为贸易谈判的一部分，中国同意恢复稀土出口，但部分美国企业仍难以获得充足供应。与此同时，北京施压欧盟取消对中国电动汽车的关税，使得欧洲制造商同样面临稀土磁体短缺的困境。北京传递的信息非常明确：中国也拥有重要筹码，且不惧使用。

More recently, China has been flexing its muscles by boycotting the purchase of soybeans from the United States. China buys roughly 60 percent of the world’s soybeans, making it an essential customer for America’s soybean farmers. By halting purchases, China has shown its displeasure for Mr. Trump’s tariffs by inflicting pain on farmers in the American Midwest.

近期，中国进一步通过抵制美国大豆的采购展示影响力。中国购买全球约60%的大豆，是美国豆农不可或缺的客户。通过停止采购，中国以重创美国中西部农民的方式表达了对特朗普关税政策的不满。