With trade hostilities between the world’s two economic superpowers back on, China has sent the unmistakable message that it is ready to fight. A week ago, it invoked its grip over virtually the entire world’s supply of critical materials, breaking a delicate trade détente between the two countries.

随着世界两大经济超级大国之间的贸易敌对行动再度升级，中国发出了明确无误的信号，表明它已准备好战斗。一周前，中国动用了对全球几乎全部关键物资供应的控制权，打破了两国之间脆弱的贸易缓和。

Beijing feels it has another ace card: its booming factories. Even in the face of sky-high tariffs by President Trump, China’s manufacturing sector is helping to maintain growth and give the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, a stronger hand to face down the United States.

北京认为自己还有一张王牌：蓬勃发展的工厂。即使面对特朗普总统的天价关税，中国制造业仍在帮助维持经济增长，让国家最高领导人习近平有更多底气来对抗美国。

The strength is on display in the city of Yiwu, home of the world’s biggest wholesale market, where sellers peddling toys, home electronics and drones are stuffed into complexes that span multiple city blocks. Last week, Yiwu unveiled another trade center, a facility the size of hundreds of football fields to house exporters and “showcase China’s hard-core manufacturing power to the world.”

这种实力在义乌市展现得淋漓尽致，这里拥有全球最大的批发市场，玩具、家用电子产品和无人机等商品的卖家们挤满了横跨多个街区的综合体。上周，义乌又揭幕了一个贸易中心，在这个相当于数百个橄榄球场大小的设施里聚集大量出口商，“向世界展示中国硬核制造实力”。

Like many vendors in Yiwu, Gong Hao used to sell his plastic Hawaiian leis, party streamers and bunny ears to Americans. This year, he lost his U.S. customers but gained new buyers in Europe and Southeast Asia.

像义乌的许多摊贩一样，龚浩（音）曾把塑料夏威夷花环、派对彩带和兔耳朵卖给美国人。今年，他失去了美国客户，但获得了欧洲和东南亚的新买家。

“American customers have little impact on us,” Mr. Gong said.

“美国客户对我们影响不大，”龚浩说。

China’s factory prowess, helped by the government, is part of a tectonic shift taking place in the economy and hitting shores near and far as China sends more of what it makes to more places. Its trade surplus with the world this year — over $875 billion — is marching toward a record. Those exports accounted for as much as one third of China’s economic growth over the past year, a development that experts say will be hard to sustain.

在政府的帮助下，中国工厂的实力成为经济中正在发生的一场结构转型的一部分，随着中国将更多产品销往更多市场，这一转变正冲击着世界各地的海岸。今年中国对全球贸易顺差超过8750亿美元，正朝着纪录迈进。过去一年，这些出口占了中国经济增长的三分之一，专家表示这一发展难以持续。

和许多义乌商贩一样，龚浩今年失去了许多美国客户，转而在欧洲和东南亚寻找新买家。今年中国对全球贸易顺差——目前超过8750亿美元——正朝着创纪录水平迈进。

The strategy is both necessary and perilous. The surging exports are flashing a warning sign about the broader Chinese economy, which is going through what economists call a deflationary shock. Data released on Monday showed that growth was stagnant over the summer as retail sales faltered. And China’s strategy to trade more with the rest of the world comes with the risk that other economies throw up their own barriers.

这种战略既必要又危险。出口激增也为中国整体经济亮起警示信号，中国正经历经济学家所说的通缩的冲击。周一发布的数据显示，随着零售疲软，夏季经济增长停滞。而中国与世界其他国家增加贸易的战略也面临其他经济体筑起自身壁垒的风险。

“Trade is effectively what’s keeping the lights on for China’s economy,” said Han Lin, the country director for the Asia Group, a consulting firm, and a former senior Wells Fargo banker in China.

“贸易实际上是中国经济保持运转的动力，”咨询公司亚洲集团中国区负责人、前富国银行驻中国资深银行家韩林（音）说。

Nearly a quarter of Fiona Zhou’s rubber chickens, ducks and other squeeze toys go to the United States. Her company, Kaqu Toys, delivered full-year orders for American importers in July and August, when Mr. Trump’s record-high tariffs on China were on a 90-day pause. She said she had given her customers a 5 percent discount to soften the blow of the higher costs caused by the tariffs. Now, with tariffs back on, Ms. Zhou is redirecting products once popular with Americans to Southeast Asia and South Africa.

菲奥娜·周（音）的橡胶鸡、鸭子和其他挤压玩具有近四分之一销往美国。她的公司卡趣玩具在7月和8月为美国进口商交付了全年订单，当时特朗普对华创纪录关税处于90天暂停期。她说，她给了客户5%的折扣，以缓解关税导致的成本上涨冲击。现在，随着关税恢复，周女士正将曾在美国流行的小商品转向东南亚和南非。

At the Global Digital Trade Center, where she and dozens of other toy companies recently moved in, officials let vendors use internet that bypasses China’s Great Firewall so they can hawk their goods on platforms that are banned everywhere else in China, like TikTok and YouTube, Ms. Zhou said.

在她和数十家其他玩具公司最近入驻的全球数贸中心，官员们允许摊贩使用绕过中国“防火长城”的互联网，周女士说，这样他们就能在TikTok和YouTube等在中国其他地方被禁的平台上兜售商品。

菲奥娜·周生产的橡胶玩具中，约有四分之一销往美国。今年夏天，在特朗普创纪录的关税政策暂停90天期间，她的公司加紧生产以满足美国订单。周女士在关税暂停期间向客户提供了5%的折扣，目前她正在将部分以往销往美国的产品转移到东南亚和南非。

The whiplash of Mr. Trump’s on-and-off tariffs is a headache, Ms. Zhou said. “It’s like your friend arguing with you all the time — what can you do?”

特朗普时启时停的关税变动让周女士头疼不已。“这就像你的朋友老是跟你吵架——你能怎么办？”

China needs to keep exporting overseas because it can’t find buyers at home.

中国需要继续向海外出口，因为国内找不到足够的买家。

Ye Chaoli sells snaggletoothed Labubu dolls, plush cartoon character toys and Hello Kitty rhinestone paraphernalia. Half of her business is devoted to selling in China, the rest to foreign markets like Russia.

叶超丽（音）销售长着獠牙的Labubu、毛绒卡通人物玩具和Hello Kitty水钻配饰。她一半生意在中国销售，其余销往俄罗斯等国外市场。

“Business is getting worse,” Ms. Ye said. “Because of the current economic downturn, especially after the Covid-19 pandemic in China, the economy has been struggling.”

“生意越来越差了，”叶女士说。“因为当前经济低迷，尤其是中国新冠疫情之后，经济一直很艰难。”

A grinding property crash in China that began four years ago has destroyed most household savings and continues to weigh heavily on sentiment. To soften the blow of the economic downturn, the government is subsidizing manufacturing.

四年前开始的中国房地产崩盘摧毁了大多数家庭的储蓄，并继续严重影响情绪。为了缓解经济低迷的冲击，政府正在补贴制造业。

The signs of stress are everywhere. People are anxious about their incomes and cautious about spending money. Households instead have been saving nearly as much as they did during the pandemic, when people faced indefinite lockdowns with no end in sight.

压力迹象随处可见。人们对收入焦虑，对消费谨慎。家庭转而尽可能多地存钱，就像疫情期间一样——当时人们面临着看不到尽头的封控。

Prices across the economy are also plunging, and there is little prospect that they will turn around. Youth unemployment is high. Urban wages have slowed to a record low, and in some industries they are shrinking. The cost of land, critical for local government revenues, has tumbled.

各经济领域的价格也在暴跌，几乎没有反转迹象。青年失业率高企。城市工资增速降至纪录低点，某些行业工资甚至出现缩水。对地方政府收入至关重要的土地价格暴跌。

政府支持下的制造业实力推动了中国的出口繁荣，这正在引发全球连锁反应。在全球数贸中心，官员告诉玩具供应商，他们可以在TikTok和YouTube等通常在中国被屏蔽的平台上销售玩具。

China’s renminbi currency, tightly managed and pegged to the U.S. dollar, has also weakened against many of its trading partners this year, though last week China’s central bank boosted the currency by setting its benchmark rate at its highest level in a year. The cost of capital is down as the central bank continues to cut rates.

受到严格管理并与美元挂钩的人民币今年对许多贸易伙伴的货币贬值，尽管上周中国央行通过设定一年内最高基准汇率来提振人民币。央行持续降息，资本成本下降。

Yet while these are all bad signs for the economy at home, they are making China’s exports overseas even more attractive.

然而，尽管这些都是国内经济的坏兆头，却使中国对海外的出口更具吸引力。

“As things get worse at home, their exports get more competitive,” said Christopher Beddor, deputy director of China research at Gavekal Dragonomics. “The bottom line is that between the deflationary shock and depreciation in currency, China’s exports are just mechanically becoming way more competitive compared to many other countries.”

“国内情况越糟，它们的出口就越具竞争力，”佳富龙洲中国研究副主任克里斯托弗·贝多尔说。“总的来说，在通缩冲击和货币贬值的面前，中国的出口在机制上正变得比许多其他国家更有竞争力。”

China’s exports in September grew at the fastest pace in six months to $328.6 billion, the largest monthly total this year, according to data released last week by the General Administration of Customs. Shipments to the United States dropped 27 percent, but they are surging just about everywhere else.

根据海关总署上周发布的数据，中国9月出口实现六个月来最快的增长，达到3286亿美元，为今年最大月度总额。对美出口下降27%，但对几乎其他所有地方都在激增。

But China’s dependence on the rest of the world for its resilience in the trade war hangs on other countries’ staying open to its exports. It is already being met with resistance in some countries, including in Southeast Asia, where Chinese shipments have increased more than anywhere else in the world.

但中国能否在贸易战中保持韧性取决于其他国家是否继续对中国商品保持开放。它已在一些国家遭遇阻力，包括东南亚，那里中国出口增长超过全球任何其他地区。

中国9月出口额接近3300亿美元，为今年单月最高，其中对美国的出口下降了27%，但对其他地区出口均强劲增长。Sunnytad玩具工艺品店的样品。中国扩大与世界其他国家贸易的战略也可能面临其他经济体设置贸易壁垒的风险。

Still, the demand for competitive Chinese goods is strong. The Yiwu International Trade City, one of the city’s six sprawling complexes for foreign trade, was buzzing one day last week, as dozens of buyers haggled over prices with stall owners. A toy drone buzzed near bystanders, and a robot dog sat upright, waiting for its bone. Two men sat in camping chairs shooting plastic AK-47 guns with rubber pellets.

尽管如此，对极具竞争力的中国商品的需求依然强劲。上周，义乌国际贸易城——该市六个大型外贸综合体之一——热闹非凡，数十名买家与摊主讨价还价。一架玩具无人机在旁观者附近嗡嗡作响，一只机器狗直立坐着等着骨头。两个男人坐在野营椅上，用塑料AK-47射击橡胶弹珠。

Among the chaos, Rhoda Nghelembi, 26, an entrepreneur from Tanzania, was looking at metal bangles and earrings. She has visited the city from her hometown, Dar es Salaam, seven times over the past three years, taking back goods to sell not just at home but in Kenya, Uganda and Congo.

在这喧闹中，26岁的坦桑尼亚企业家罗达·恩格尔姆比正在查看金属手镯和耳环。过去三年，她七次从家乡达累斯萨拉姆来到这里进货，不仅在本国销售，还销往肯尼亚、乌干达和刚果。

“I see my future growing so big and rich because of China,” Ms. Nghelembi said. “China has many many opportunities.”

“我觉得我的未来会因为中国变得广阔而富有，”恩格尔姆比说。“中国有很多很多机会。”