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“这是一场灾难”:特朗普新关税宣布后全球股市下跌

JOE RENNISON, DANIELLE KAYE, RIVER AKIRA DAVIS

2025年4月3日

The New York Times

Markets around the world shuddered on Thursday after President Trump announced across-the-board 10 percent tariffs on all U.S. trading partners except Canada and Mexico, as well as even higher tariffs on dozens of America’s other main trading partners.

周四,特朗普总统宣布对除加拿大和墨西哥以外的所有美国贸易伙伴全面征收10%的关税,并对其他数十个美国主要的贸易伙伴征收更高的关税,导致全球市场震荡。

Futures on the S&P 500, which allow investors to trade the index outside normal trading hours, slumped over 3 percent. Asian markets fell sharply, with benchmark indexes dropping more than 3 percent in Japan, and nearly 2 percent in Hong Kong and South Korea.

标准普尔500指数期货——也就是投资者可以在正常交易时间之外交易的指数——跌幅超过3%。亚洲市场大幅下跌,日本基准指数下跌超过3%,香港和韩国下跌近2%。

The slide came after Mr. Trump, speaking at a ceremony at the White House on Wednesday, announced a new 10 percent base line tariff on all imports as well as country specific taxes on goods from a host of other countries. Those included a 34 percent tax on Chinese imports, on top of 20 percent in tariffs he recently put on China, and 20 percent on goods coming from the European Union and 24 percent on Japanese imports.

特朗普周三在白宫举行的一个仪式上发表讲话,宣布对所有进口商品征收10%的新基准关税,并对来自许多其他国家的商品征收特定关税后,全球市场随之下跌。其中包括对中国进口商品征收34%的关税,此前他已经对中国商品加征20%的关税;对来自欧盟的商品征收20%的关税;对日本进口商品征收24%的关税。

The initial market reaction suggested that the scale of the tariffs on Wednesday had come as a surprise, and analysts were still trying to figure out how the figures had been derived.

市场的初步反应表明,周三宣布的关税规模出人意料,分析人士仍在试图弄清楚这些税率是如何得出的。

“I think the numbers are shockingly high compared to what people were expecting and it is inexplicable in many ways,” said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities. “I think it’s a disaster.”

“我认为,与人们之前的预期相比,这些数字高得令人震惊,而且在很多方面都令人费解,”学院证券(Academy Securities)宏观策略主管彼得·奇尔表示。“我认为这是一场灾难。”

The administration had adjusted its estimates of the tariffs imposed on the United States to include adjustments for what it deemed currency manipulation or even other taxes, with analysts questioning the analytical basis for doing so.

美国政府调整了估算其他国家对美国商品征收关税的方法,将其认定的货币操纵行为甚至其他税收也纳入考量,但分析人士质疑这种调整方法缺乏合理的分析依据。

“Trump is going to war with countries on this,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities. “It’s ridiculous. It shows no comprehension as to what he is doing to other countries. And it is going to hurt the U.S.”

“特朗普要就此与各国开战,”全国联盟证券(National Alliance Securities)的国际固定收益主管安德鲁·布伦纳说。“这太荒谬了。这表明他根本不了解自己的所作所为会给其他国家带来什么影响。而且这将伤害到美国自己。”

Stock markets globally have been choppy in recent weeks, as investors have been whipsawed by the administration’s mixed tariff messages. Markets in Asia tumbled earlier this week ahead of the anticipated unveiling of tariffs, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling into a correction on Monday.

最近几周,全球股市一直动荡不安,因为投资者被美国政府发出的相互矛盾的关税信息弄得无所适从。本周早些时候,在预期中的关税举措公布之前,亚洲股市就已经大幅下跌,日经平均指数在周一进入回调状态。

Japan was jolted again on Thursday, with analysts and trade experts in Tokyo caught off guard by Mr. Trump’s announcement of a 24 percent tariff on Japanese products. The U.S. ally’s average tariff on nonagricultural goods is approximately 2.4 percent, making it among the lowest in the world.

周四,日本再次受到震动,特朗普宣布对日本产品征收24%的关税,这让东京的分析人士和贸易专家们措手不及。作为美国的盟友,日本对非农业产品的平均关税约为2.4%,是世界上最低的关税水平之一。

The uncertainty around the tariff levels has left investors unable to assess the potential ramifications for consumers, businesses and the broader economy.

关税水平的不确定性使得投资者无法评估它对消费者、企业和整体经济的潜在影响。

The U.S. tariff rate on all imports is now around 22 percent, from 2.5 percent in 2024, said Olu Sonola, the head of U.S. Economic Research at Fitch Ratings.

惠誉评级美国经济研究主管奥卢·索诺拉表示,美国对所有进口商品征收的关税税率目前约为22%,而2024年时这一税率为2.5%。

“This is a game changer, not only for the U.S. economy but for the global economy. Many countries will likely end up in a recession,” he said. “You can throw most forecasts out the door.”

“这不仅会改变美国经济的格局,也会改变全球经济的格局。许多国家很可能最终会陷入经济衰退,”他说。“大多数的预测现在已经没什么用处了。”

Through Wednesday, the S&P 500 had fallen 7.7 percent below its most recent peak in February. From that peak on Feb. 19 through the end of March, 10 of 11 sectors have fallen.

截至周三,标普500指数较其2月份的近期峰值已下跌7.7%。从2月19日的峰值到3月底,11个产业类别中有10个的指数都出现了下跌。

The Nasdaq Composite index, which is chock-full of the tech stocks that have come under pressure during the latest bout of selling, has tumbled even further, down almost 13 percent since its peak in December. Futures on the index tumbled over 4 percent Wednesday evening.

以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数在最近的抛售潮中承受了压力,该指数跌幅更大,自12月份的峰值以来下跌了近13%。周三晚间,该指数期货跌幅超过4%。

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies more exposed to the ebb and flow of the economy, and therefore arguably more of a bellwether for American businesses, is more than 16 percent below its peak in November.

追踪小公司的罗素2000指数更容易受到经济起伏的影响,因此可以说它能充当美国企业的风向标,该指数较去年11月的峰值已下跌逾16%。

In Asia, the stocks of a wide range of companies including technology and semiconductor giants, as well as major auto exporters, stumbled. Shares of Japanese automakers Honda Motor and Toyota Motor fell more than 4 percent on Thursday, while South Korea’s Samsung Electronics fell close to 3 percent.

在亚洲,包括科技和半导体巨头以及主要汽车出口商在内的众多公司的股票纷纷下跌。日本汽车制造商本田汽车和丰田汽车的股票周四下跌了4%以上,韩国三星电子的股价下跌了近3%。

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is down more than 11 percent this year, with analysts expecting a weaker dollar and stronger yen to cut deeply into the profits of big Japanese exporters.

日经平均指数今年已经下跌逾11%,分析人士预计,美元走弱和日元走强将大幅削减日本大出口商的利润。

Signs of worry have also been evident in the rapid rise in the price of gold. Investors have flocked to the precious metal, sending it 19 percent higher in the first three months of the year, its biggest quarterly rise since 1986.

黄金价格的快速上涨也体现了市场的担忧。投资者对这种贵金属趋之若鹜,使其在今年前三个月上涨了19%,创下自1986年以来的最大季度涨幅。

And while many investors worry about the inflationary effect of tariffs, falling bond yields and a declining U.S. dollar suggest that most are more worried about waning economic growth.

尽管许多投资者担心关税会带来通货膨胀的影响,但债券收益率下降和美元贬值表明,大多数投资者更担心经济增长会放缓。

The dollar slid as Mr. Trump spoke from the White House Rose Garden.

特朗普在白宫玫瑰园发表讲话时,美元汇率应声下滑。

Some investors had hoped that the tariff announcement on Wednesday would cure some of the uncertainty in the financial markets. But few truly expected the news to mark the end of Mr. Trump’s tariff talk and with it an end to the stock market volatility.

一些投资者原本希望周三宣布的关税举措能够消除金融市场的部分不确定性。但几乎没有人真地指望这会标志着特朗普关税言论以及随之而来的股市波动的结束。

Uncertainty has “paralyzed” investors, consumers and business leaders, further pressuring the economy as activity slows, said George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities.

三菱日联金融集团证券美国宏观策略主管乔治·贡萨尔维斯表示,不确定性让投资者、消费者和企业领导人“不知所措”,随着经济活动放缓,这进一步给经济带来了压力。

Ahead of the announcement, prices in the equity options market, where investors can place bets that protect them against sharp moves in the stock market, suggested a consensus view that volatility would remain, said Mandy Xu, head of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe Global Markets.

芝加哥期权交易所全球市场衍生品市场情报主管曼迪·徐表示,在关税举措宣布之前,股票期权市场的价格表明,市场普遍认为股市波动将会持续。在股票期权市场,投资者可以进行押注以防范股市的大幅波动。

“Investors no longer see tariffs as a one-time event risk, but an always-present risk,” she said, adding that the current expectation in the market is for volatility to persist, “given ongoing tariff and growth worries.”

她表示:“投资者不再将关税视为一次性事件的风险,而是始终存在的风险。“她还说,“鉴于关税和经济增长的担忧持续存在,”目前市场预期波动将持续下去。

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