A dozen barges, heavy with just-harvested rice, cut their engines and floated to a halt. Two huge rice mills upriver stopped de-husking and bagging as electricity prices peaked.

十几艘满载新收稻谷的驳船熄了引擎，顺水漂着停下来。上游两家大型碾米厂因电价飙至峰值，停止了稻谷脱壳与装袋的作业。

It was midmorning in Vietnam’s Mekong River Delta — one of the most productive agricultural areas on Earth, in a nation that is the world’s second-largest exporter of rice.

此时是越南湄公河三角洲的上午时分。这里是全球最富饶的的农业区之一，越南是全球第二大稻米出口国。

Only birds and a stray motorbike could be heard.

四下里只听得见鸟鸣，偶尔传来摩托车驶过的声响。

And in the quiet, anxieties unfurled.

在这片寂静里，焦虑正悄然蔓延。

载着新收割稻谷的船只排成一列，准备驶入同塔省的一家加工中心。

Boat captains talked about diesel prices doubling, surging higher and for longer than they did after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Workers on the water and near forklifts worried about having to find new jobs. The scarcity of fuel and fertilizer from the Middle East was already seizing up a food producing giant, and no matter how the war in Iran goes, the next planting looked shaky too.

船长们聊着翻了倍的柴油价格，这一轮的涨幅之高、持续时间之长已经超过了2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后的水平。水上作业的工人和叉车的装卸工都在担心要另谋出路。来自中东的燃油和化肥供应短缺已经让这个粮食生产大国陷入停摆；无论伊朗战事走向如何，下一季的播种都已前景堪忧。

“If I grow new crops, I’m just pouring money into the ground,” said Vo Minh Tam, a rice farmer who owns a farm supply store where he’s stopped stocking fertilizer because so many neighbors have paused plans for the May growing season. “I’d rather leave it abandoned.”

“要是种下新一季作物，我就是往地里白砸钱，”稻农武明谭（音）说。他自己开了一家农资店，如今已经停止进货化肥，因为太多邻居都搁置了5月种植季的计划。“我宁愿让地荒着。”

Vietnam’s stalled land of plenty shows how the war — even with the two-week cease-fire announced on Tuesday — has caused an immediate shock to the global food supply that’s sparking a chain reaction of long-term disruption. Until the massive backlog of fuel tankers pass through the narrow Strait of Hormuz that Iran has now promised to stop blocking, and until long-term peace looks probable, pain for farmers will continue, along with the risk of under-fertilized crops, lesser yields and higher grocery prices worldwide.

越南这片陷入停滞的鱼米之乡表明，这场战争已对全球粮食供应造成直接冲击，并引发了带来长期扰动的连锁反应，即便周二宣布了为期两周的停火。在大量滞留的油轮顺利通过伊朗现承诺不再封锁的狭窄霍尔木兹海峡之前，在长期和平的前景明朗之前，农民的困境还将持续，同时全球也将面临作物施肥不足、减产、食品价格上涨的风险。

Asia is especially reliant on the Middle East for oil and fertilizer. The Mekong Delta and its 19 million residents are not easily disturbed or defeated, but even before the war, climate change was pushing saltwater into fields, twisting arms and budgets. The gut punch of an oil shock has added to frustration with an energy source that already felt like tainted treasure — black gold once just valuable, now looks cursed.

亚洲尤为依赖中东的石油和化肥。湄公河三角洲及其1900万居民向来坚韧不拔、不易被击垮，但在这场战争之前，气候变化导致的海水倒灌侵田就已经让农户的生计与收支捉襟见肘。而这场石油危机带来的沉重打击更让人们对这种能源心生怨怼——这种宝贵的黑色黄金如今仿佛成了祸根。

在同塔省收割水稻。农民们对灌溉费用和化肥价格上涨感到担忧。

The war spurred fuel rationing within a week. Vietnam lacks ample reserves, so resource allocation has been zero-sum. One sector ends up pitted against another, creating a dilemma for this one-party Communist state.

战事爆发不到一周，越南就启动了燃料配给制。越南没有充足的能源储备，因此资源分配彻底变成了零和博弈：不同行业之间陷入对立，给这个一党制共产主义国家带来了两难困境。

Who wins in a fight for scarce resources? City-dwellers, manufacturers or the Mekong Delta, a pump-irrigated plain that exports eight million tons of rice, four million tons of fruit and nearly two million tons of seafood every year?

在这场稀缺资源的争夺中，谁会是赢家？是城市居民、制造业，还是湄公河三角洲？这片靠水泵灌溉的平原每年要出口800万吨大米、400万吨水果，以及近200万吨海鲜。

The Mekong Delta sprawls across Vietnam’s southern tip, covering an area larger than the Mississippi Delta. Complex irrigation networks run like capillaries through lands where shrimp are farmed, poultry is raised, and citrus, durian and rice grow side by side. Everything, including water and fertilizer, has been costlier to move since the start of the war, and no one knows whether the nations negotiating for peace can be trusted to create stability.

湄公河三角洲横跨越南最南端，面积比密西西比河三角洲还要广阔。错综复杂的灌溉网络如同毛细血管般遍布这片土地，这里有虾塘和禽舍，柑橘、榴莲与水稻连片种植。战事爆发以来，包括水和化肥在内的所有物资，运输成本都大幅上涨；而没人知道那些正在和谈的国家能否真正带来稳定。

“These leaders, I think maybe they’re crazy,” said Nguyen Thanh Tam, 71, a rice farmer with deep family roots in the Mekong. “I wish we could go back to the old days,” he added, “when our weather and lives were more stable.”

“这些领导人，我看他们怕是疯了。”71岁的稻农阮清谭（音）说，他的家族世世代代扎根在湄公河三角洲。“我多希望回到过去的日子，”他还说。“那时候天气安稳，日子也安稳。”

Mr. Tam, a soft-spoken man with deep wrinkles from a life in the sun, had started the harvest a few weeks ago feeling good. He expected to earn enough for a new Honda scooter costing about $800 — the first of his life. Now, even after hearing about the cease-fire, he’s sticking with his silver bicycle.

阮清谭说话轻声细语，饱受风吹日晒的脸上刻满深深的皱纹。几周前开始收割时，他还满心欢喜，本以为赚的钱够买一辆约800美元的本田踏板车——这将是他这辈子第一辆摩托车。可如今，他还是只能骑着自己那辆旧的银色自行车，即便已经听到了停火的消息。

“I remain very worried,” he said on Wednesday, soon after the cease-fire was announced.

“我还是满心担忧，”他在周三停火协议宣布后不久说。

71岁的稻农阮清潭表示，他希望世界能回归到更加稳定的时期。一名妇女正在湄公河三角洲收割水稻，这里是世界上最富饶的农业区之一。

Mr. Tam said he fears that prices will stay high, especially for fertilizer. A third of the world’s supply comes from the Middle East and global prices for urea, a common fertilizer for rice, are up more than 70 percent since January.

阮清谭说，他担心物价会一直居高不下，尤其是化肥。全球三分之一的化肥供应来自中东，自1月以来，水稻种植常用的尿素的全球价格已经上涨了70%以上。

The farm supply store owned by Mr. Minh Tam is usually crammed full of the stuff. He’s got room for 100 tons. In late March, he had only four. Empty pallets gathered dust on his concrete floor near a pink rice cooker with a mouse’s face.

武明谭的农资店里总是堆满了化肥。他的仓库容量是100吨，可3月底的时候，库存只剩四吨。水泥地面上，空托盘积满了灰尘，旁边放着一个印着老鼠头像的粉色电饭煲。

“I’d be certain to lose money if I stockpile fertilizer now,” he said. “Farmers are all complaining about how expensive it is.”

“我现在要是囤化肥，铁定要亏本，”他说。“农户们都抱怨化肥太贵了。”

Inactivity is an aberration in Vietnam. Fifty years after a brutal war followed by grinding famine, the country moves with more throttle than brake. When the Covid pandemic hit, farmers bought drones for seeding to reduce clustering by seasonal workers.

在越南，停滞不前实属罕见。经历了残酷的战争和随之而来的严重饥荒，50年后，这个国家就像是踩下了油门，而不是刹车。新冠疫情来袭时，农户们购入无人机播种，减少季节性务工人员的聚集。

But studies of agricultural economics have shown that uncertainty freezes enterprise. Not even the Mekong is immune.

但农业经济学的研究早已表明，不确定性会让经营活动陷入停滞。即便是湄公河三角洲也不例外。

Around 90 percent of the rice Vietnam ships — mostly to the Philippines, but also to Africa and the United States — comes from the Mekong. Normally.

越南出口的大米中，约90%都产自湄公河三角洲，这些大米主要销往菲律宾，也出口至非洲和美国。

In today’s abnormal times, buyers are hesitating. Shipping delays of 10 to 15 days have become common as carriers slow steam to conserve fuel. Basmati rice from India bound for the Middle East has been unable to get through the Strait of Hormuz. In the Philippines, wholesalers are not sure when there might be enough diesel to move imports around the country.

可在如今这个反常的时期，买家们都开始犹豫。为了节省燃油，航运公司纷纷减速航行，10到15天的船期延误已成常态。印度运往中东的巴斯马蒂大米根本无法通过霍尔木兹海峡。在菲律宾，批发商不确定什么时候能有足够的柴油把进口大米运往全国各地。

That means rice has been piling up across Asia, creating a short-term paradox: wholesale prices declining as production costs rise. After a year of healthy harvests, traders are paying farmers less right now to hedge against future risk.

这意味着大米正在全亚洲各地积压，形成了一个短期悖论：生产成本节节攀升，批发价却持续下跌。在经历了一整年的丰收后，贸易商为了对冲未来风险，如今给农户的收购价反而更低。

一名工人在市场附近的仓库里休息，这个市场平时总是熙熙攘攘。一台大米加工机在两个运行周期之间停机，以节约能源。

If that tamps down inflation, it may not be for long, according to food economy experts, who expect sharper price hikes for crops like vegetables that are harder to stockpile.

粮食经济专家表示，即便这种情况暂时抑制了通胀，也不会持续太久。他们预计，蔬菜等难以储存的作物后续将迎来更剧烈的价格上涨。

“Complex systems have a habit of creating wicked problems,” said Paul Teng Piang Siong, a senior fellow in food security at Singapore’s ISEAS — Yusof Ishak Institute.

“复杂系统总会滋生出棘手的难题，”新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院粮食安全高级研究员邓烦祥说。

Even if a lasting peace emerges, he added, the consequences of America’s latest military adventure will likely linger for agriculture. In Vietnam, where the soil still holds unexploded American bombs from more than 50 years ago, anger has been firing in many directions.

他还说，即便最终实现了持久和平，美国这场最新的军事冒险对农业造成的影响也很可能长期持续。在越南的土地里，至今还埋着50多年前美军投下的未爆炸弹，如今，民众的不满正向四面八方蔓延。

Nguyen Thanh Can sells diesel at a floating gas station on a major waterway. His tanks can hold around 100,000 liters (about 26,400 gallons) but since the war started, his distributor will only give him a few thousand at a time. When he ran out on a recent weekend, barge captains were furious.

阮清根（音）在一条主航道上经营着一家水上加油站。他的油罐能装约10万升柴油，可战事爆发以来，分销商每次只肯给他几千升。前阵子的一个周末，他的油卖光了，驳船船长们怒不可遏。

“They accused me of holding onto fuel, waiting for prices to go up,” he said. “I had to show them the tanks.”

“他们指责我囤油等着涨价，”他说，“我只能把油罐打开给他们看。”

He swung open a hatch, revealing mostly empty space.

他一把掀开油罐盖子，里面几乎空空如也。

3月下旬收割结束后，工人们搬运着成捆的稻草。一些农民已暂停了原定于5月播种季的计划。47岁的阮清根是湄公河上一座浮动加油站的老板，他向需要给船只加油的顾客出售柴油。

“I’m selling everything I have,” he said. “It’s not just about high prices. I don’t have enough.”

“有多少我就卖多少，”他说，“问题不只是价格高，是我根本就没油可卖。”