茉莉花新闻网

中華青年思想與行動的聚合地

面临关税风暴,为何许多企业选择留在中国?

DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI

2025年4月10日

广州一家生产餐厅用具和炊具的小工厂,摄于周三。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times

Even as President Trump heaped additional tariffs on China, his barrage of trade levies on countries across Asia and unpredictability about what he might do next have encouraged some companies to hunker down in China, exactly the opposite of what he had hoped.

尽管特朗普总统在对中国加征更多关税,但他接二连三向亚洲各国征收贸易税以及下一步行动的不可预测性反而促使一些公司继续留在中国,这与他的预期完全相反。

Mr. Trump has steadily ratcheted up the pressure on China. As of Wednesday, his new tariffs on China exceed 100 percent, including a last-minute escalation serving as punishment for Beijing’s retaliation on earlier levies.

特朗普一直在不断加大对中国的施压。截至周三,他对中国加征的新关税税率已超过100%,其中包括为惩罚中国就此前的关税发起的报复行动,最后关头又提高了一次。

However, in contrast to what happened during his first term, Mr. Trump has accompanied the tariff campaign on China with steep import duties on dozens of other countries, including a handful of Asian countries that became popular alternatives in the earlier trade war between Beijing and Washington as a way to circumvent levies and limit supply chain disruptions.

然而,与特朗普第一个任期内的情况不同,在对中国发起关税行动的同时,他还对其他数十个国家征收高额进口关税,其中包括一些亚洲国家。在之前的中美贸易战期间,这些亚洲国家成为了规避关税、减少供应链中断的热门替代选择。

But for some companies, the so-called reciprocal tariffs have had the unexpected effect of making China an even more appealing place to produce in and buy from. It has eliminated some of the motivation to diversify production or sourcing to places like Vietnam, India or other Asian countries.

但对一些公司来说,所谓的对等关税却产生了意想不到的效果,使中国成为了一个更具吸引力的生产和采购地。这消除了一些公司将生产或采购业务分散到越南、印度或其他亚洲国家的动力。

In addition, the chaos that has followed last week’s announcement has made companies wary about adding more upheaval with a drastic change to their supply chains. Faced with constant flux and unpredictability, companies are choosing to stay with what they know: longstanding relationships with Chinese suppliers or manufacturing partners.

此外,上周关税政策宣布后引发的混乱局面使得许多公司对在供应链上进行大幅调整更加谨慎,担心会带来更多动荡。面对不断的变化和不确定性,公司选择维持现状:继续保持与中国供应商或制造合作伙伴的长期合作关系。

“Staying in China and making China work is everyone’s strategy right now,” said Travis Luther, founder of MOSO Pillow, a Denver-based maker of bedding made from bamboo fiber.

“目前,大家的策略是留在中国并保障中国业务的开展,”总部位于丹佛的竹纤维床上用品制造商MOSO Pillow的创始人特拉维斯·卢瑟说道。

00Biz China Recoupling 05 vjkt master1050东莞的毛绒玩具制造商YRL Toys的生产车间,摄于3月。

Mr. Luther, who attended a conference for American entrepreneurs this week, said he, like other business owner attendees, was not devoting time to searching for new partners or ways to move from China. Instead, he was working with his Chinese business partner to find ways to save costs or develop new products. Cost advantages are only one part of what makes China the go-to destination for making goods.

卢瑟本周参加了一个美国企业家会议,他表示,和其他参会的企业主一样,他并没有花时间去寻找新的合作伙伴,或者考虑从中国转移业务的方法。相反,他正与中国的商业伙伴合作,寻找降低成本或开发新产品的途径。成本优势只是中国成为商品制造首选地的原因之一。

“That’s not even why most people are in China anymore,” Mr. Luther said. “It’s because they have very sophisticated manufacturing and engineering processes.”

“现在,这甚至都不是大多数人选择留在中国的原因了,”卢瑟说,“而是因为他们拥有非常精良的制造和工程工艺。”

Mr. Trump has said the tariffs will help bring manufacturing back to the United States, but that remains a difficult proposition. Currently, most American factories cannot match China’s manufacturing capability, capacity and speed even if the tariffs eat into its cost advantages.

特朗普曾表示,关税将有助于把制造业带回美国,但这仍然是个很难达成的目标。目前,即使关税削弱了中国的成本优势,大多数美国工厂在制造能力、产能和速度方面仍无法与中国相媲美。

As trade tensions escalated in the first Trump presidency, many American and multinational companies opted to move some production away from China to less adversarial countries. For most, America was not a viable option.

在特朗普第一任期内贸易紧张局势升级时,许多美国公司和跨国公司选择将部分生产从中国转移到对抗情绪没那么强烈的国家。对大多数公司来说,美国并不是一个可行的选择。

But changing suppliers is a difficult, expensive and time-consuming process. Mr. Luther said a consultant had told him that it would cost at least $6 million to build a U.S. facility to grow and process bamboo fibers. And in the several years it would take for the bamboo trees to grow, he would have to pay the tariffs to import fibers from China.

但更换供应商是一个艰难、昂贵且耗时的过程。卢瑟说,一位顾问告诉他,要在美国建造一个种植和加工竹纤维的工厂至少需要600万美元。而且在竹子生长的几年时间里,他还得为从中国进口纤维支付关税。

A complete supply chain overhaul to another country requires time and money — something companies are reluctant to pursue unless they know where government policy is heading.

将整个供应链彻底转移到另一个国家需要时间和资金,除非公司清楚政府政策的走向,否则他们不愿意这么做。

“It’s like the fog of war, but it’s the fog of trade war,” said Kit Conklin, the global head of risk and compliance at Exiger, a supply chain mapping firm. “There’s got to be policy certainty for industry to react.”

“这就像战争迷雾,但现在是贸易战迷雾,”供应链绘图公司Exiger的全球风险与合规主管基特·康克林表示,“要让产业做出反应,政策必须要有确定性。”

00Biz China Recoupling 07 pfgw master1050柬埔寨西哈努克附近Prey Nob的一家制衣厂,工人正在午休,摄于2018年9月。

A top executive at an international contract manufacturer said it was impossible to make any long-term decisions about shifting outside China based on what feels like haphazard decision-making from the United States.

一家国际代工厂高管表示,鉴于美国的决策看起来似乎是随意做出的,不可能以此为依据做出任何将业务从中国转移出去的长期决策。

“The rules of the game seem to change every day. It feels we have no option but to sit tight,” said this executive, who asked not to be identified given the sensitive nature of tariff discussions in the U.S. and China.

“游戏规则似乎每天都在变。我们感觉除了按兵不动别无选择,”这位高管说。由于中美关税讨论的敏感性,他要求不具名。

When American and multinational companies started to move some production from China several years ago, many Chinese factory owners opened facilities in neighboring Asian countries or Mexico. It was a way to reroute some of the flow of goods through countries with significantly lower duties.

几年前,当美国公司和跨国公司开始将部分生产从中国转移出去时,许多中国工厂主在亚洲邻国或墨西哥开设了工厂。这是一种通过低关税国家重新安排部分货物流向的方法。

But the recent tariffs on about 60 countries that imposed duties of 46 percent on Vietnam, 36 percent on Thailand and 27 percent on India “greatly diminish” the incentive to relocate factories away from China, according to a research note from Nomura Securities, a Japanese investment bank.

但日本投资银行野村证券的一份研究报告指出,最近对约60个国家征收的关税——其中包括越南46%、泰国36%、印度27%——“极大地削弱”了将工厂从中国迁走的动力。

Nomura said that while China still faces substantial challenges from the higher tariff, “the broader tariff net cast over its competitors may inadvertently preserve its position in global supply chains.”

野村证券表示,虽然中国仍面临着因高关税带来的巨大挑战,“但对其竞争对手广泛征收关税,可能会在不经意间维护中国在全球供应链中的地位。”

Sarah Massie, who runs a consulting practice advising American companies on foreign trade, said that when tariffs are harsh everywhere, people tend to stick with the status quo. In the manufacturing world, China is the status quo.

萨拉·马西经营着一家为美国公司提供外贸咨询的公司,她表示,当各国都面临高昂关税时,人们往往会维持现状。而在制造业领域,中国就是现状。

“If everybody is getting hit, then that’s definitely stopping some of the looking,” Ms. Massie said. “Because people think at least we already know what this supplier gives us and we were happy with them before the tariffs hit, so why don’t we just stay happy. But whether they can continue at that cost is a whole different story.”

“如果大家都受到了冲击,那肯定会导致一些人停止寻找新的选择,”马西说,“因为人们会想,至少我们知道这个供应商能给我们提供什么,而且在关税冲击之前我们对他们很满意,所以为什么不继续保持满意呢。他们能否在这样的成本下继续维持下去,那就是另一回事了。”

同类信息

查看全部

茉莉花论坛作为一个开放社区,允许您发表任何符合社区规定的文章和评论。

茉莉花新闻网

        中国茉莉花革命网始创于2011年2月20日,受阿拉伯之春的感召,大家共同组织、发起了中国茉莉花革命。后由数名义工无偿坚持至今,并发展成为广受翻墙网民欢迎的新闻聚合网站并提供论坛服务。

新闻汇总

邮件订阅

输入您的邮件地址:

linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram