2025年4月17日
Even as the United States and China push their economies further apart with escalating tariffs, they share an inescapable challenge. Both depend on Taiwan for semiconductors.
尽管中美两国因不断升级的关税而使双方经济进一步脱钩,但它们面临着一个无法回避的挑战。两国在半导体方面都依赖台湾。
And navigating that reliance could prove to be one of the trickiest policy problems both countries face in their trade war.
而如何应对这种依赖,可能会成为两国在贸易战中最棘手的政策问题之一。
China and the United States both view Taiwan’s dominance of the global tech supply chain as a national security risk. In response, they have tried to boost their own capacity to make the chips they need.
中美两国都将台湾在全球科技供应链中的主导地位视为一种国家安全风险。作为回应,两国都试图提升自身制造所需芯片的能力。
But as they come to grips with how difficult it is to replicate the industry at the heart of the global tech supply chain, which Taiwan has built over decades, China and the United States are pursuing diverging approaches to their dependence on the island and its dominant chip maker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.
然而,台湾几十年来打造了处于全球科技供应链核心地位的芯片产业,在意识到要复制这样一个产业何其困难之后,为解决本国对台湾及其占主导的芯片制造商台湾积体电路制造股份有限公司(简称台积电)的依赖,美中两国采取了截然不同的策略。
In the United States, the Trump administration has initiated a national security investigation into chip imports that could result in tariffs on the industry. Nvidia, the American chipmaker, said Tuesday that it had been told by the government it would now need a license to sell any A.I. chips to China. President Trump has long focused on Taiwan and accused it of stealing business from American companies.
在美国,特朗普政府对芯片进口展开了一项国家安全调查,这可能会导致对该行业征收关税。美国芯片制造商英伟达周二表示,政府告知该公司,现在向中国出售任何人工智能芯片都需要获得许可证。特朗普总统长期以来一直关注台湾,指责它从美国公司抢走业务。
China is taking a different tack.
中国则选择了另一个方向。
In a notice last week, a state-backed trade association in China issued guidance that would exempt a significant portion of advanced chips from China’s tariffs on the United States.
上周,中国一家由国家支持的行业协会发布了指导意见,将使相当一部分先进芯片免受中国对美国征收的关税的影响。
The reason, experts said, is that China knows it needs those chips and does not want to let its trade war with the United States get in the way.
专家表示,原因在于中国清楚自己需要这些芯片,不想因为与美国的贸易战妨碍到芯片的获取。
The upshot is that many advanced chips that are designed by American companies like Nvidia, Apple, Qualcomm and AMD, but manufactured in Taiwan, will not be subject to Chinese tariffs. American companies might end up with the chips, and then sell them to Chinese companies, but for the purposes of tariffs, China will not consider such chips as originating in the United States.
结果是,许多由英伟达、苹果、高通和AMD等美国公司设计,但在台湾制造的先进芯片,将不会被征收中国的关税。美国公司可能会先拿到这些芯片,然后再卖给中国公司,但就关税而言,中国不会将此类芯片视为原产于美国。
That is a change from typical trade policy. The United States and other countries usually consider chips to have been made in the country where they undergo a later stage of the production process known as packaging. China will consider the location where the circuits were etched onto tiny pieces of silicon to be the place where a chip is made.
这与典型的贸易政策有所不同。美国和其他国家通常认为,芯片的制造地是进行芯片生产后期被称为封装环节的国家或地区。而中国将把电路蚀刻到微小硅片上的地方视为芯片的制造地。
Mr. Trump, as did President Joseph R. Biden Jr. before him, is trying to persuade TSMC and other foreign chip makers to make more chips in the United States. Mr. Biden lured companies with federal grants. Mr. Trump is trying to use the threat of tariffs to coerce companies to make big investments.
特朗普和他之前的拜登总统一样,都试图说服台积电和其他外国芯片制造商在美国生产更多的芯片。拜登用联邦拨款吸引企业。特朗普则试图利用关税威胁来迫使企业进行大规模投资。
China’s approach undermines the push by multiple administrations in Washington to revive U.S. chip making, said Jimmy Goodrich, a senior adviser for technology analysis at the RAND Corporation, a think tank.
智库兰德公司的技术分析高级顾问吉米·古德里奇表示,中国的做法削弱了华盛顿多届政府重振美国芯片制造的努力。
“This was a clever move by China as it both dramatically reduces the tariff burden on themselves and at the same time discourages chip firms from producing chips in the United States,” he said.
他说:“中国的这一手很聪明,既大幅减轻了自身的关税负担,同时也抑制了芯片企业在美国生产芯片的意愿。”
He Hui, semiconductor research director at Omdia, a research firm, said China’s approach could also benefit the country’s own chip makers, like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation.
研究机构奥姆迪亚的半导体研究主管贺辉(音)表示,中国的做法也可能使中国本土的芯片制造商受益,比如中芯国际。
Advanced semiconductors are the products of complex international supply chains.
先进半导体是复杂国际供应链的产物。
Many American electronics companies design the chips that will power their devices and then outsource the production to chip makers like TSMC, which buy the necessary materials like silicon wafers from Japan and chemicals from China. Specialized machines to make the chips in Taiwan are bought from the Netherlands. Some chips are then sent to another country, such as Malaysia or China, for testing before they might be put into iPhones or artificial intelligence servers in Mexico or China.
许多美国电子公司设计了驱动其设备的芯片,然后将生产外包给台积电这样的芯片制造商,台积电从日本购买硅片等必要材料,从中国购买化学品。在台湾用于制造芯片的专用机器则是从荷兰购买的。一些芯片会先被运往另一个国家进行测试,比如马来西亚或中国,然后在墨西哥或中国被装入苹果手机或人工智能服务器。
Chemicals are sometimes refined in one country, blended in a second and used in production in a third, said Lita Shon-Roy, chief executive at Techcet, a chip material consultant.
芯片材料咨询公司Techcet首席执行官莉塔·肖恩-罗伊表示,化学制品有时在一个国家进行提炼,在另一个国家混合,然后在第三个国家用于生产。
All this makes it logistically complicated to impose tariffs on the industry, said Liu Pei-chen, a director at Taiwan Industry Economics Services, a think tank. “Chip making involves processing and reprocessing, assembly and reassembly, and layers of transportation.”
智库台湾经济研究院的一位总监刘佩真表示,所有这些因素使得对该行业征收关税在实操层面上变得非常复杂。“芯片制造涉及加工和再加工、组装和再组装,以及多环节的运输。”
Most of the world’s advanced semiconductors are made in Taiwan, where chipmakers like TSMC have spent billions of dollars over four decades building up a network of factories and suppliers.
世界上大部分先进半导体都在台湾制造,台积电等芯片制造商在过去40年里投入了数十亿美元,建立起了一个由工厂和供应商组成的网络。
Mr. Trump had previously complained that Taiwan had gained an unfair dominance in making semiconductors. Analysts said China’s move to exempt chips made in Taiwan was an acknowledgment of just how much China’s tech relied on Taiwan.
特朗普此前曾抱怨称,台湾在半导体制造领域获得了不公平的主导地位。分析人士表示,中国对台湾制造的芯片给予豁免的举措,表明中国认识到自身科技产业对台湾的依赖程度之深。
TSMC did not respond to a request for comment.
台积电没有回应置评请求。
Making a single semiconductor involves companies in multiple countries. And as Mr. Trump tries to redraw the rules of trade, each border crossing raises the prospect of tariffs, and additional costs can quickly add up. Ms. Shon-Roy said the battle between China and the United States threatened to make chips, and the consumer electronics that contained them, a lot more expensive.
制造一枚半导体芯片涉及多个国家的公司。随着特朗普试图重新制定贸易规则,货物每一次跨越边境都增加了征收关税的可能性,额外成本会迅速累积起来。肖恩-罗伊表示,中美之间的争斗有可能使芯片以及包含芯片的消费电子产品变得昂贵得多。
“If the two largest economies in the world cannot come to an agreement, they will both drag each other down,” Ms. Shon-Roy said. “Everyone is holding their breath.”
“如果世界上最大的两个经济体无法共识,最终会两败俱伤,”她说。“现在大家都在屏息以待。”